MBS and Treasury Markets Archive

Stronger Gains After Weaker ISM Data - Today, 3:03 PM

ISM Services 52.1 vs 55.5 f'cast, 56.0 prev ISM Services PMI is today's biggest economic data and it is also the biggest miss. Business activity (a sub component of the dat...

Today, 1:18 PM

ADP Employment Right in Line With Forecast - Today, 1:18 PM

ADP Employment 146k vs 150k f'cast, 233k prev Bonds were moderately weaker overnight but have bounced back ever so slightly after this data. MBS are down about an eighth of...

Tue, 8:53 PM

Friendly Fed Comments No Match For The Range - Tue, 8:53 PM

MBS Recap Friendly Fed Comments No Match For The Range MBS Recap Matthew Graham | ...

Tue, 4:04 PM

Weakest Levels of The Day - Tue, 4:04 PM

Selling has continued fairly steadily, but at a slow pace following the JOLTS data. MBS are now down 2 ticks (.06) on the day and just over an eighth of a point from the AM highs (which coi...

Tue, 3:11 PM

Giving up Some Early Gains After JOLTS Data - Tue, 3:11 PM

Job Openings 7.744m vs 7.480m f'cast, 7.372 prev Job Quits 3.326m vs 3.071m prev Bonds like it when job openings and job "quits" are falling (or coming in much lowe...

Tue, 2:57 PM

South Korea... Martial Law... And a Bond Rally? - Tue, 2:57 PM

Of all of the motivations in all the markets, this one had to walk into ours. Or perhaps it rolled in on tank tracks. Just over an hour ago, South Korea's president declared martial l...

Mon, 9:42 PM

Bonds Hold Vast Majority of Last Week's Gains - Mon, 9:42 PM

MBS Recap Bonds Hold Vast Majority of Last Week's Gains MBS Recap Matthew Graham |...

Mon, 2:18 PM

Morning Weakness a Simple Factor of Positioning - Mon, 2:18 PM

It can be a bit tricky to understand the roll of various forms of positioning when it comes to otherwise inexplicable movement in the bond market. It's also a fairly vague term that can ref...

Wed, November 27, 8:17 PM

Stronger Bonds, Before and After (And Regardless of) Economic Data - Wed, November 27, 8:17 PM

MBS Recap Stronger Bonds, Before and After (And Regardless of) Economic Data MBS Recap &...

Wed, November 27, 3:27 PM

Near Weakest Levels - Wed, November 27, 3:27 PM

MBS are now up only 3 ticks (.09) on the day after being up just over 7 ticks (.22) around some lenders' rate sheet print times. As such, the jumpiest lenders could be right on the edge of ...

Wed, November 27, 2:18 PM

Thanksgiving Nap Time Comes Early, Thanks to AM Data - Wed, November 27, 2:18 PM

Although this morning contained the week's most active slate of economic data, it has completely failed to inspire even the most modest of responses in the bond market, both in terms of volume an...

Tue, November 26, 8:17 PM

No Major Data. No Major Drama - Tue, November 26, 8:17 PM

MBS Recap No Major Data. No Major Drama MBS Recap Matthew Graham | 2:46 PM ...

Tue, November 26, 3:25 PM

MBS down More Than an Eighth From Highs - Tue, November 26, 3:25 PM

While none of the weakness is driven by economic data, bonds have been selling off gradually and steadily so far in the AM hours. After coming into the day 1 tick (0.03) stronger, MBS are now dow...

Tue, November 26, 2:50 PM

Bonds Letting Off Some of Yesterday's Steam - Tue, November 26, 2:50 PM

Monday brought a rare event for the bond market in the recent context as yields fell throughout the day and never really thought about bouncing. It was all the more uncommon because the rally was...

Mon, November 25, 9:05 PM

Come For The Big Rally, Stay For The Staying Power - Mon, November 25, 9:05 PM

MBS Recap Come For The Big Rally, Stay For The Staying Power MBS Recap Matthew Gra...

Mon, November 25, 1:54 PM

Strong Overnight Gains. Bonds Like Bessent? - Mon, November 25, 1:54 PM

Of all of Trump's political appointees, Treasury Secretary is the most consequential for the bond market ("Treasury" is right in the title, after all!). Bessent got the nod on Friday night after ...

Fri, November 22, 9:26 PM

Getting Back to Normal, For a Few Days Anyway - Fri, November 22, 9:26 PM

MBS Recap Getting Back to Normal, For a Few Days Anyway MBS Recap Matthew Graham |...

Fri, November 22, 5:03 PM

Evidence Continues For The Sideways Slide - Fri, November 22, 5:03 PM

The bond market has been forced to take the victories that are within reach. As November winds down, the best victory we could have hoped for was the absence of any additional defeat. ...

Fri, November 22, 3:00 PM

Slightly Weaker After PMI Data, But Some Solace From Internals - Fri, November 22, 3:00 PM

S&P Services PMI 57.0 vs 55.2 f'cast, 55.0 prev The word "internals" in economic data refers to additional components of any given report that add context and nuance beyond t...

Thu, November 21, 9:52 PM

Another Flat Day, This Time With Data - Thu, November 21, 9:52 PM

MBS Recap Another Flat Day, This Time With Data MBS Recap Matthew Graham | 4:51 PM...

Thu, November 21, 5:13 PM

Bonds Giving Up Early Gains, But Not Due to Data - Thu, November 21, 5:13 PM

It's been a bit of a chaotic morning so far, but in a narrow enough range to make it relatively boring in the bigger picture. Bonds began the day in slightly stronger territory and managed ...

Thu, November 21, 4:11 PM

MBS at Lows - Thu, November 21, 4:11 PM

MBS are still technically 1 tick (.03) higher on the day but have fallen to their weakest levels over the past hour. Lenders who priced near the AM highs are seeing 5 ticks (.16) of weaknes...

Thu, November 21, 1:34 PM

Jobless Claims Stay Low, But Continued Claims Help Offset - Thu, November 21, 1:34 PM

Jobless Claims 213k vs 220k f'cast, 219k prev Continued Claims 1908k vs 1870k f'cast, 1872k prev Philly Fed Index -5.5 vs 8.0 f'cast 10.3 prev Bonds w...

Wed, November 20, 3:34 PM

Geopolitical Headlines Behind Small But Noticeable Reactions - Wed, November 20, 3:34 PM

There has been plenty of news over the past 48 hours regarding the U.S. greenlighting Ukraine to use long range missiles to attack Russia. Yesterday's examples resulted in relatively modest...

Tue, November 19, 9:59 PM

Bonds Give Back Most of The Overnight Gains - Tue, November 19, 9:59 PM

MBS Recap Bonds Give Back Most of The Overnight Gains MBS Recap Matthew Graham | 4...

Tue, November 19, 8:41 PM

Weakest Levels Of The Day - Tue, November 19, 8:41 PM

Bonds aren't doing anything very interesting at the moment, or today in general, but AM gains have gradually eroded to the point of MBS being near unchanged levels. 5.5 coupons are still up...

Tue, November 19, 3:31 PM

Threat of Global Nuclear War Barely Worth a Bond Rally - Tue, November 19, 3:31 PM

Tuesday brings a classic example of a seemingly significant geopolitical headline resulting in a completely underwhelming bond market reaction. When it comes to such matters, we m...

Mon, November 18, 9:33 PM

Still Waiting For an End to Unfriendly Trend - Mon, November 18, 9:33 PM

MBS Recap Still Waiting For an End to Unfriendly Trend MBS Recap Matthew Graham | ...

Mon, November 18, 4:10 PM

It's The Economy - Mon, November 18, 4:10 PM

While financial news outlets continue focusing on politics and Trump's cabinet picks, the bond market is expressing anxiety about the risk that economic data continues coming in hotter than ...

Fri, November 15, 8:41 PM

Uneventful Conclusion to Another Volatile Week - Fri, November 15, 8:41 PM

MBS Recap Uneventful Conclusion to Another Volatile Week MBS Recap Matthew Graham ...

Fri, November 15, 8:40 PM

Heads-Up: MBS Off Afternoon Highs - Fri, November 15, 8:40 PM

This alert is only relevant for lenders who repriced for the better in response to the mid-day rally and more specifically, to those who repriced for the better after 1:40pm ET. Those lende...

Fri, November 15, 2:28 PM

Bonds Face Headwinds From Stronger AM Econ Data - Fri, November 15, 2:28 PM

All 3 of this morning's 8:30am economic reports were stronger than expected, and the 9:15am report was right in line with expectations. Of these, Retail Sales is the headliner, coming in at...

Fri, November 15, 1:36 PM

Retail Sales Comes in Hotter; Bonds Losing Some Ground - Fri, November 15, 1:36 PM

Retail Sales 0.4 vs 0.3 f'cast last month revised to 0.8 from 0.4 NY Fed Manufacturing 31.2 vs -0.7 f'cast, -11.9 prev Import Prices 0.3 vs -0.1 f'cast, -0.4 p...

Thu, November 14, 9:34 PM

Powell Rains on Bond Market's Mini Parade - Thu, November 14, 9:34 PM

MBS Recap Powell Rains on Bond Market's Mini Parade MBS Recap Matthew Graham | 4:3...

Thu, November 14, 8:11 PM

Bonds Losing More Ground After Powell Speech - Thu, November 14, 8:11 PM

MBS are now down an eighth on the day, back in line with AM lows and down at least a quarter point from most lenders' rate sheet print times. Negative reprices are increasingly possible. ...

Thu, November 14, 7:48 PM

MBS Down More Than an Eighth From Highs - Thu, November 14, 7:48 PM

This alert is only an "alert" for lenders who repriced near the highs of the day between 12:15 and 1pm ET. MBS are down 6 ticks since then (.19). As such, lenders who repriced for the...

Thu, November 14, 3:01 PM

Morning Weakness Erased - Thu, November 14, 3:01 PM

The morning has been both straightforward and interesting. The straightforward part involved a moderate sell-off following stronger economic data. Jobless claims fell (both weekly ini...

Thu, November 14, 1:37 PM

Bonds Losing Some Ground After Jobless Claims and PPI - Thu, November 14, 1:37 PM

Jobless Claims 217k vs 223k f'cast, 221k prev Continued Claims 1.873k vs 1.888k f'cast, 1.892k prev Core PPI M/M 0.3 vs 0.3 f'cast, 0.2 prev Core PPI Y/Y...

Wed, November 13, 6:25 PM

Negative Reprice Risk Increasing - Wed, November 13, 6:25 PM

Bonds continue selling off in a measured, linear fashion. 10yr yields are now up 3.2bps on the day at 4.456. MBS are up 3 ticks (.09), outperforming due to yield curve trading (i.e. s...

Wed, November 13, 3:19 PM

Early Gains Speak to Underlying Inflation Anxiety - Wed, November 13, 3:19 PM

Bonds managed a moderate rally in response to this morning's inflation data. While it has since been mostly erased, it was as strong of a showing as we could have possibly hoped for at the ...

Wed, November 13, 3:10 PM

MBS Down a Quarter Point From Highs - Wed, November 13, 3:10 PM

Once again, the 930am NYSE open is proving to be an obvious turning point for the bond market. In today's case, it transformed the rally into a sell-off, and has almost fully eroded the gai...

Wed, November 13, 1:38 PM

CPI Right On Target. Bonds Moderately Relieved - Wed, November 13, 1:38 PM

Core CPI M/M 0.3 vs 0.3 f'cast, 0.3 prev (unrounded 0.280) Core CPI Y/Y 3.3 vs 3.3 f'cast, 3.3 prev Bonds are responding favorably to the just-released CPI data,...

Tue, November 12, 9:35 PM

Back to Regularly Scheduled Programming (Unfortunately) - Tue, November 12, 9:35 PM

MBS Recap Back to Regularly Scheduled Programming (Unfortunately) MBS Recap Matthe...

Tue, November 12, 4:59 PM

New Lows for MBS, New Highs for Treasury Yields - Tue, November 12, 4:59 PM

Bonds have been selling off in fits and starts after an initial recovery at the NYSE open. That lasted all of 30 minutes and the selling has been linear since then. MBS are d...

Tue, November 12, 2:24 PM

Two Ways to Look At This Morning's Sell-Off - Tue, November 12, 2:24 PM

In the run up to the election, we offered constant reminders that a 10bp move in Treasuries wasn't really a big deal, and that such volatility could be expected well into November. That's t...

Fri, November 8, 11:14 PM

Back to Uneventful Already? - Fri, November 8, 11:14 PM

MBS Recap Back to Uneventful Already? MBS Recap Matthew Graham | 6:14 PM ...

Fri, November 8, 8:05 PM

New Lows of The Day For MBS - Fri, November 8, 8:05 PM

MBS aren't much lower in price than they were at the time of the last alert, but a few additional lenders may be convinced to consider negative reprices this time around. 5.5 coupons are no...

Fri, November 8, 4:46 PM