On December 18th, one of the most striking takeaways from Fed Chair Powell's press conference was the shift in the Fed's focus from the labor market to inflation data. Said shift was frequently r...
Monthly Core CPI
0.2 vs 0.2 f'cast, 0.3 prev
unrounded: 0.225 vs 0.240
Annual Core CPI
3.2 vs 3.3 f'cast, 3.3 prev
Bonds were already in stronger territory to st...
The Producer Price Index (PPI) may not be nearly as much of a market mover as the Consumer Price Index (CPI), but it has proven capable of producing logical reactions in the past when it's come i...
Core PPI M/M
0.0 vs 0.3 f'cast, 0.2 prev
Core PPI Y/Y
3.5 vs 3.8 f'cast, 3.5 prev
The Producer Price Index came in much lower than expected at the core level and sl...
Bonds have been selling gradually so far this morning. 10yr yields are up 3.7bps at 4.802 after being nearly unchanged at the open.
MBS were also unchanged in early trading but are now down 5 ...
After last Friday's jobs report, the evaporation of Fed rate cut probability has been a common refrain. While it's true that there was an obvious shift in both long and short term rate...
Different lenders may approach this scenario differently depending on when they priced this morning and how conservative the rate sheet was. Bottom line, MBS are down a quarter point from t...
The morning trading is as straightforward as it is unpleasant. Nonfarm payrolls crushed expectations (256k vs 160k f'cast) and the unemployment rate also improved (4.1 vs 4.2). While the Fe...
Nonfarm Payrolls
256k vs 160k f'cast, 227k prev
Unemployment Rate
4.1 vs 4.2 f'cast, 4.2 prev
Bonds are instantly and significantly higher in yield after the obviou...
Trading remains slow, sparse, and mostly inconsequential. MBS are still 1 tick (.03) higher on the day but down an eighth of a point from the AM highs. Lenders who released rate sheet...
Unless something incredibly interesting happens in the next 3 hours, this morning's commentary will likely be the end-of-day commentary as well. Due to the national day of mourning, bonds w...
Jobless claims data is normally a Thursday affair, but Federal economic data is not being released tomorrow due to the Jimmy Carter Day of Mourning (markets still open a half day). As such,...
High hopes and crossed fingers may help one's outlook in advance of key economic data, but they are powerless once the data comes out. In today's case, the Job Openings data coincided with ...
Despite some overnight strength, bonds have been selling steadily during domestic hours. MBS are down just over an eighth of a point on the day, but more than a quarter point from the AM hi...
Treasuries made modest gains in overseas trading, but yields are heading higher during domestic hours. There are two things working against us this morning. The first is more of a gen...
This is more of a "heads-up" alert as there haven't been any major changes in prices in the past few hours. Instead, Treasury yields have trickled gently to the highest levels of the day wi...
Today's ISM Manufacturing report was the only top tier economic data this week. While we wouldn't say it was "strong" by any means, it wasn't weak either. More importantly, it was hig...
ISM Manufacturing
49.3 vs 48.4 f'cast, 48.4 prev
ISM Prices
52.5 vs 51.7 f'cast, 48.4 prev
The ISM Manufacturing data wasn't too far from forecasts, but this week's...
Bonds have steadily been giving up the overnight gains despite remaining in positive territory on the day. 10yr yields are still down about half a bp at 4.565, but that's up from lows of 4....
Bonds were steadily stronger overnight, both in Asia and Europe. 10yr yields and MBS had both fully erased Tuesday's losses within the first 30 minutes of domestic trading. That's whe...
While some lenders just set a conservative rate sheet and clock out on New Year's Eve, any lender that's paying attention is increasingly likely to be considering negative reprices.
Month end ...
Things look a bit worse than they actually are on the charts due to a narrow overall range, but bonds have definitely shifted into weaker territory starting after 10:30am. MBS are now down ...
The day begins with MBS in slightly weaker territory while Treasuries are slightly stronger. The discrepancy isn't really big enough to merit any urgent explanation, but either way, there a...
Stop the presses! MBS are up almost 3/8ths of a point in early trading and 10yr yields have surged lower by 8bps. This is a massive and miraculous rally that surely must have some com...
MBS are now down 2 ticks (.06) on the day and just barely an eighth of a point from the AM highs. Some later-pricing lenders released rates during those highs, so if they're feeling jumpy, ...
Not that any of this week's trading activity matters in the bigger picture, but things have been reasonably resilient after Monday's selling. Tuesday and Thursday saw more selling, but each...
Bonds are back in the office for a few days, at least in the sense that there are no holiday scheduled changes, and they've wasted no time getting right back to the messaging that's been in force...
Bonds are selling off for no obvious reasons for however many days in a row it's been (at least 2 unless you count last Thursday). Episodes like this result in bond analysts dusting off phrases l...
MBS are now down 9 ticks on the day (.28) and nearly a quarter point from the AM highs. Lenders who priced at or before 9:30am ET are slightly more likely to be considering negative reprice...
The most interesting analysis we can offer today is a simple reminder that the word "idiosyncrasy" has an "S" at the end instead of the "C" that we're all thinking it should have. Speaking ...
Consumer Confidence
104.7 vs 113.0 f'cast, 111.7 prev
MBS began the day about 2 ticks (.06) weaker but lost ground at a slightly faster pace between 9:30am and 10am ET.&nbs...
MBS hit their highs of the day just after noon ET and have corrected a bit since then. While 5.5 coupons are still up a quarter point, they're down just over an eighth of a point from the h...
This week's biggest to-do in terms of economic reports was this morning's PCE inflation data. The fact that the Fed just said it was shifting its primary focus away from the labor mark...
M/M Core PCE
0.1 vs 0.2 f'cast, 0.3 prev
Y/Y Core PCE
2.8 vs 2.9 f'cast, 2.8 prev
Bonds were already slightly stronger overnight and are adding to gains following t...
