MBS and Treasury Markets Archive

Fed Threads Needle of Apathy - Wed, 8:57 PM

MBS Recap Fed Threads Needle of Apathy MBS Recap Matthew Graham | 4:56 PM ...

Wed, 7:01 PM

A Bit Weaker Now (And Possible Reprice Risk) - Wed, 7:01 PM

MBS have shed another 3 ticks (.09) since the last alert. We're still up 1 tick on the day, but down 7 ticks (.22) from the highs. With that, jumpier lenders could more legitimately c...

Wed, 6:53 PM

Weakest Post-Fed Levels - Wed, 6:53 PM

MBS are still up 2 ticks on the day, but down exactly an eighth of a point from pre-Fed highs (but only half of that weakness has happened since the Fed announcement). 10yr yields are up...

Wed, 6:04 PM

Mixed Reaction so Far to Mixed Dot Plot - Wed, 6:04 PM

No rate cut No major changes to statement Notable changes to dots as seen in chart below Bottom line, the dot plot shows about half of the Fed moving toward the 0-1 cut camp and the o...

Wed, 6:00 PM

Here's What Changed in The New Fed Announcement - Wed, 6:00 PM

Although swings in net exports have affected the data, recent indicators suggest that economic activity has continued to expand at a solid pace. The unemployment rate has stabilized at a low lev...

Wed, 2:47 PM

Once Again: Today is Not About a Fed Rate Cut - Wed, 2:47 PM

Fed day is here and there's a 0% chance of a rate cut. That's been the case for just over a month due a combination of April's jobs report and the stock market recovery in May (or the under...

Tue, 8:31 PM

Dot Plot in Focus With Fed's "No Cut" Announcement - Tue, 8:31 PM

MBS Recap Dot Plot in Focus With Fed's "No Cut" Announcement MBS Recap Matthew Gra...

Tue, 2:53 PM

Econ Data Not Weak Enough to Help - Tue, 2:53 PM

Bonds were decently stronger in the overnight session, but not for any new, specific reasons. Trading levels have been cutting an increasingly narrow, sideways range. Until that chang...

Tue, 12:42 PM

CORRECTION: Import Prices Flat (Not Lower) - Tue, 12:42 PM

The previous update included export price figures instead of import price figures. Here's the correct breakdown: Import Prices 0.0 vs -0.2 f'cast, -0.1 prev Export Price...

Tue, 12:34 PM

Retail Sales Mixed; Import Prices Lower - Tue, 12:34 PM

Retail Sales -0.3 vs 0.1 f'cast, 0.0 prev Core Retail Sales 0.4 vs 0.3 f'cast, -0.1 prev Export Prices -0.9 vs -0.7 f'cast, 0.1 prev Import Prices 0...

Mon, 8:15 PM

Token Weakness Without a Cause - Mon, 8:15 PM

MBS Recap Token Weakness Without a Cause MBS Recap Matthew Graham | 4:14 PM ...

Mon, 6:01 PM

Down More Than an Eighth From Highs - Mon, 6:01 PM

MBS had a decent rally into 10:30am but have been losing ground steadily since noon. Chatter surrounds the anticipation over the Senate unveiling its version of the spending bill. 10y...

Mon, 2:25 PM

Slow Start Leaves Focus on The Next 2 Days - Mon, 2:25 PM

After rallying fairly well last Wednesday and Thursday, bonds pulled back on Friday, but not enough to erase more than half of the week's gains. The new week is starting out in uneventful fashion...

Fri, June 13, 7:32 PM

Not Reading Too Much Into Friday's Weakness - Fri, June 13, 7:32 PM

MBS Recap Not Reading Too Much Into Friday's Weakness MBS Recap Matthew Graham | 3...

Fri, June 13, 5:37 PM

Weakest Levels; Ongoing Reprice Risk - Fri, June 13, 5:37 PM

Bonds have been selling fairly steadily throughout the session in an intentional move to the sidelines ahead of higher-than-normal potential volatility over the weekend. This isn't just abo...

Fri, June 13, 2:32 PM

Additional Weakness After Sentiment Data - Fri, June 13, 2:32 PM

Consumer Sentiment 60.5 vs 53.5 f'cast, 52.2 prev 1yr inflation expectations 5.1 vs 6.6 prev Consumer sentiment has been a sub-par market mover at best, recently, b...

Fri, June 13, 1:53 PM

Opening Weaker Despite Israel/Iran Headlines - Fri, June 13, 1:53 PM

By 8pm last night, news of Israel's attack on Iran erased an entire week of stock market gains and pushed bond yields to the lowest levels in more than a month. Given the alarming nature of some ...

Thu, June 12, 8:13 PM

Thursday's Data Offered No Objection to Overnight Rally - Thu, June 12, 8:13 PM

MBS Recap Thursday's Data Offered No Objection to Overnight Rally MBS Recap Matthe...

Thu, June 12, 2:02 PM

Higher Bar For Additional Gains Despite Lower PPI - Thu, June 12, 2:02 PM

This morning's PPI did its best impression of yesterday's CPI with the core monthly number coming in at 0.1 vs 0.3 forecast. In yesterday's case, this was good enough for a reasonably big rally.&...

Thu, June 12, 12:36 PM

PPI Comes in Lower. Bonds Rallying Further - Thu, June 12, 12:36 PM

Core MM PPI 0.1 vs 0.3 f'cast, -0.2 prev Core YY PPI 3.0 vs 3.1 f'cast, 3.2 prev Monthly Headline PPI 0.1 vs 0.2 f'cast, -0.2 prev Jobless Claims 24...

Wed, June 11, 8:19 PM

Nice Rally on Data and Auction Results - Wed, June 11, 8:19 PM

MBS Recap Nice Rally on Data and Auction Results MBS Recap Matthew Graham | 4:16 P...

Wed, June 11, 1:53 PM

CPI Comes in Low Enough to Help - Wed, June 11, 1:53 PM

Heading into today's CPI data, our stance was that we'd need to see the monthly core number come in at 0.1 vs 0.3 in order to see much of a friendly response, and that is exactly what's playing o...

Wed, June 11, 12:38 PM

Inflation Tanks Enough For Bonds to Respond - Wed, June 11, 12:38 PM

Core CPI m/m 0.130 vs 0.3 f'cast, 0.2 prev Core CPI y/y 2.8 vs 2.9 f'cast, 2.8 prev Bonds were modestly weaker in the overnight session but have been willing ...

Tue, June 10, 7:49 PM

No Drama Today. How About Tomorrow? - Tue, June 10, 7:49 PM

MBS Recap No Drama Today. How About Tomorrow? MBS Recap Matthew Graham | 3:49 PM ...

Tue, June 10, 2:46 PM

Bumpy Start; No Data; Waiting on Auction and Trade Headlines - Tue, June 10, 2:46 PM

Although bonds are experiencing a small amount of volatility this morning, it isn't consequential in the bigger picture. Quick-but-modest weakness at 10:15am ET has essentially taken MBS ba...

Tue, June 10, 2:41 PM

MBS Down an Eighth From AM Highs - Tue, June 10, 2:41 PM

Many lenders are not yet out with their first rate sheet of the day. Others tend to have a slightly higher bar for reprice risk when bonds sell off at this time of day. All that to say that repri...

Mon, June 9, 7:56 PM

Gentle Rally Gently Reverses After Trade Headlines - Mon, June 9, 7:56 PM

MBS Recap Gentle Rally Gently Reverses After Trade Headlines MBS Recap Matthew Gra...

Mon, June 9, 2:12 PM

Shifting Gears After Friday's Volatility - Mon, June 9, 2:12 PM

Overnight and early-session trading confirm the bond market is shifting gears and re-entering a sort of cruise control in the prevailing range. Had last Friday's jobs report been as weak as some ...

Fri, June 6, 9:02 PM

Perfectly Logical Reaction to On-Target Data - Fri, June 6, 9:02 PM

MBS Recap Perfectly Logical Reaction to On-Target Data MBS Recap Matthew Graham | ...

Fri, June 6, 4:14 PM

Steady Losses; New Lows - Fri, June 6, 4:14 PM

Nothing new or exciting has happened since the jobs report this morning, but bonds have been selling to progressively weaker levels, even if the pace is super slow. With each tick lower in ...

Fri, June 6, 3:30 PM

Jobs Report Not Bad Enough to Justify The Lead-Off - Fri, June 6, 3:30 PM

The bond market was likely taking a bit of a lead-off ahead of today's jobs report, inspired by a string of weaker economic data over the past week. Wednesday's ADP and ISM data had an espe...

Fri, June 6, 12:34 PM

NFP Right in Line With Forecast; Some Selling - Fri, June 6, 12:34 PM

Nonfarm Payrolls 139k vs 130k f'cast, 147k prev Unemployment Rate 4.2 vs 4.2 f'cast/prev As we discussed yesterday, Wednesday's data led the market to price in a sl...

Thu, June 5, 8:05 PM

Bonds Dial Back Ahead of Big Jobs Report - Thu, June 5, 8:05 PM

MBS Recap Bonds Dial Back Ahead of Big Jobs Report MBS Recap Matthew Graham | 4:04...

Thu, June 5, 3:00 PM

Bonds Under More Pressure on Trade-Related Headlines - Thu, June 5, 3:00 PM

MBS are now down 2 ticks and 10yr yields are up 2.2bps at 4.378 after more details on the Trump/Xi phone call. Newswires are far from earth-shattering, but they've been enough to drive s...

Thu, June 5, 2:04 PM

Bumpy Start; Data Overshadowed by Other Events - Thu, June 5, 2:04 PM

Bonds began the morning in rally mode, even if not in an extreme way. Gains lasted for about 20 minutes before reversing. The shift was accompanied by slightly elevated volume, indica...

Thu, June 5, 1:26 PM

Bonds Losing Ground Despite Weaker Claims Data - Thu, June 5, 1:26 PM

Jobless Claims 247k vs 235k f'cast, 239k prev Continued Claims 1904k vs 1910k f'cast, 1907k prev Bonds began the session in slightly stronger territory and held gai...

Wed, June 4, 9:27 PM

Big Bond Rally After ADP and ISM - Wed, June 4, 9:27 PM

MBS Recap Big Bond Rally After ADP and ISM MBS Recap Matthew Graham | 5:24 PM ...

Wed, June 4, 2:28 PM

Weaker Econ Data. Lower Yields - Wed, June 4, 2:28 PM

It's been a fairly simple morning so far for the bond market. Both of the morning's key economic reports came in weaker than expected. In the case of ADP employment, that's fairly straightforward...

Wed, June 4, 12:25 PM

Small Improvement After ADP Employment Report - Wed, June 4, 12:25 PM

ADP Employment 37k vs 115k f'cast, 60k prev Bonds were mostly flat in the overnight session but have rallied about as much as one would expect in light of the substantially lower...

Tue, June 3, 8:47 PM

JOLTS Data Didn't Help, But it Didn't Hurt Much Either - Tue, June 3, 8:47 PM

MBS Recap JOLTS Data Didn't Help, But it Didn't Hurt Much Either MBS Recap Matthew...

Tue, June 3, 4:59 PM

Negative Reprice Risk Increasing - Tue, June 3, 4:59 PM

MBS are now down 3 ticks (.09) on the day. These are the lowest levels and more than an eighth of a point below most lenders' rate sheet print times. As such, negative reprices are in...

Tue, June 3, 2:40 PM

Down Over an Eighth From AM Highs - Tue, June 3, 2:40 PM

MBS are down 5 ticks (.16) from AM highs and an eighth of a point from the levels seen just before the 10am econ data. A few lenders released rates around that time, but they would need to be fee...

Tue, June 3, 2:35 PM

Fed and Data Temper Overnight Rally - Tue, June 3, 2:35 PM

First thing's first: the overnight rally was fairly modest with 10yr yields dropping about 3bps to 4.41 ahead of the domestic session. Given that these levels are/were in line with the lowe...

Mon, June 2, 9:27 PM

New Month Selling Trumps ISM Data - Mon, June 2, 9:27 PM

MBS Recap New Month Selling Trumps ISM Data MBS Recap Matthew Graham | 5:26 PM ...

Mon, June 2, 6:56 PM

Just a Bit More Reprice Risk - Mon, June 2, 6:56 PM

The first alert arrived amid minimal reprice risk due to morning rate sheet timing. Specifically, most lenders priced for the morning before the 10am rally and thus weren't seeing huge loss...

Mon, June 2, 3:41 PM

Negative Reprice Risk Increasing - Mon, June 2, 3:41 PM

Bonds are selling off to the weakest levels of the day for debatable reasons (GDP Now update showing 4.6 vs 3.8 prev, perhaps? But that seems like a stretch). 10yr yields are quick...

Mon, June 2, 2:51 PM

Softer Start Despite Tame ISM Manufacturing Data - Mon, June 2, 2:51 PM

The ISM Manufacturing PMI has more potential than most economic reports to cause a reaction in the bond market, even if it isn't perfectly consistent. As today's only big ticket data, it was...

Fri, May 30, 8:19 PM