One of the notions surrounding the Treasury auction cycle is that the bond trading community tends to build in a "concession" ahead of any given auction. That's a fancy word to say "rates g...
This is more of a heads-up than a true alert for most lenders. MBS are still nicely stronger on the day, but off the best levels by just over an eighth in 5.5 coupons and just under an eigh...
The theme of "waiting" amid an empty calendar will be played out by the end of the week (if it's not already played out from most of the past year spent waiting for only a handful of key events e...
With multiple overseas market closures, volume and liquidity remain very light in the bond market. Most of the influence on today's trading came from a single block trade at 9:09am ET whi...
Last week was definitely important for the bond market. The key takeaway was the Fed's acknowledgement of elevated inflation in Q1 coupled with the assessment that they still see inflation ...
On most months in modern economic memory, a gain of 175k payrolls would be welcome news for the labor market. Depending on the context, it still is. But in today's case, it's much low...
ISM Non Manufacturing
49.4 vs 52.0 f'cast, 51.4 prev
ISM Prices
59.2 vs 55.0 f'cast, 53.4 prev
Bonds had rallied well after the jobs report with 10yr yields as low ...
Nonfarm Payrolls
175k vs 243k f'cast, 315k prev
Unemployment Rate
3.9 vs 3.8 f'cast/prev
Wages
0.2 vs 0.3 f'cast, 0.3 prev
This is a fairly straightfo...
Thursday was always destined to be the least interesting day of current week due to its lack of meaningful calendar events, but that doesn't mean we can't see a bit of volatility for other reason...
Jobless Claims
208k vs 212k f'cast, 208k prev
Continued Claims
1774k vs 1800k f'cast, 1774k prev
Jobless Claims data isn't much of a market mover these days, but t...
Bonds have gradually corrected after the Powell press conference rally. 10yr yields are up to 4.636 from lows of 4.58, but that's still nearly a 5bp gain on the day. MBS are still up ...
Powell's press conference is in progress and things could conceivably shift at some point, but so far, it's been a good thing for bonds.
Reason being: markets were looking for a read on whethe...
Recent indicators suggest that economic activity has been expanding continued to expand at a solid pace. Job gains have remained strong, and the unemployment rate has remained low. Inflation h...
ISM Manufacturing
49.2 vs 50.0 f'cast, 50.3 prev
ISM Prices
60.9 vs 55.0 f'cast, 55.8 prev
Job Openings
8.488 vs 8.690m f'cast, 8.813m prev
Bonds had ...
Bonds were roughly unchanged overnight, but began to improve modestly after the ADP data. Considering the numbers were higher than expected, that may be more of a relief bid, or even "new m...
There's no big, new drama in the bond market this afternoon--just a slow bleed that takes us to the weakest levels of the day just now. 10yr yields are up 6.3 bps at 4.677 and MBS are down just o...
Steering clear of unfriendly economic data has been an increasingly challenging task for the bond market in April. While it might be an overstatement to say we're going out with a bang, tod...
Employment Cost Index
12 vs 1.0 f'cast, 0.9 prev
There was a time when we wouldn't have even put ECI on the econ calendar, but this morning's reaction brings it full circle as a ...
Treasury's just-released borrowing estimates for Q2 are higher than the market expected. While we don't yet know the breakdown of the increases (one assumes they will be weighted toward sho...
Monday is one of the quietest days of the week although there will be a potentially important update at 3pm when Treasury releases borrowing estimates for the upcoming quarterly auction cycle.&nb...
WARNING: once you get past the 1st paragraph here, things start to get a bit "mathy" and esoteric. The takeaway is that there's an actual way to reconcile today's 0.3 vs 0.3 monthly core PC...
It's a bit of a tricky morning in the bond market when it comes to reconciling the data with the market movement. At face value the headlines make a better case for lower rates with GDP at ...
The bond market has been decidedly more sideways after hitting longer-term yield highs last Tuesday. 10yr Treasuries have been a relatively narrow range since then, mostly respecting a ceil...
Durable Goods
2.6 vs 2.5 f'cast
last month revised from 1.3 to 0.7
Durables, excluding defense and aircraft
0.2 vs 0.2 f'cast
last month revised from 0.7 to 0.4
...
Is it any surprise to see a strong reaction to economic data when the phrase "data dependent" has come to unequivocally rule all other approaches to understanding the interest rate outlook? ...
S&P Services PMI
50.9 vs 52.0 f'cast
S&P Manufacturing PMI
49.9 vs 52.0 f'cast
The S&P PMI data (previously "Markit") has increasingly been a tradeable ...
It's no secret that a vast majority of bond market movement these days occurs in response to a small handful of economic reports and the Fed's quarterly updates on the rate hike outlook (via the ...
The overnight session began with a very clear flight to safety in stocks (sell) and bonds (buy) on headlines regarding increased hostilities between Iran and Israel. There have been plenty ...
This isn't an alert in the sense that some new, quick selling has taken place. Rather, bonds have simply continued a pattern of gradual selling since 10am. Over that time, 10yr yields...
After the best day in a month and a half on Wednesday, the bond market is back to its recent habit of selling off and moving toward higher yields. It looked the losses were set to be more m...
The timing of Fed comments this morning is unfortunate in that it lines up closely with the 9:30am NYSE open. Fed Funds Futures offer some confirmation that Williams later comments (especia...