For informational purposes only. This is not a commitment to lend or extend credit. Information and/or dates are subject to change without notice. All loans are subject to credit approval. Rates vary based upon market conditions and borrower qualification.
This is a heads-up alert that will require some analysis on your part if you choose to act on it.
MBS are still up 3 ticks (.09) on the day, but are down more than a quarter point from the mos...
On Thursday afternoon with less than an hour left to trade, Trump announced he would be directing his representatives to buy $200bln in mortgage-backed securities (MBS). No matter what one's pers...
MBS prices have been a complete mess since yesterday afternoon's announcement. A large contingent of traders who weren't in the office y'day afternoon traded the news for the first time this morn...
The jobs report came out mixed with payrolls falling 10k short of the 60k forecast and the unemployment rate ticking down to 4.4% vs a 4.5% forecast. The unemployment rate decline is mitigated so...
The newswire in question:
TRUMP: INSTRUCTING MY REPRESENTATIVES TO BUY $200 BLN DOLLARS IN MORTGAGE BONDS
The reaction:
We don't know exactly how this will play out yet, but MBS t...
US bonds have been taking clear cues from Europe in overnight trading recently. Today's example involved a 3bp sell-off on both sides of the Atlantic. The 8:30am Jobless Claims data may be garner...
ISM N-Mfg PMI (Dec)
54.4 vs 52.3 f'cast, 52.6 prev
ISM Services Employment (Dec)
52.0 vs -- f'cast, 48.9 prev
ISM Services New Orders (Dec)
57.9 vs -- f'cast, 52....
Bonds rallied steadily overnight with more of the gains aligning with a data-driven bond rally in Europe. The overnight move brought 10yr yields roughly 2bps lower from yesterday's close. A...
Bonds have been selling a bit quicker in the past hour as Trump talks about increased defense spending (Treasury issuance implications).
10yr yields are still in the range, but up 2.7bps at 4....
A range trading theme has dominated the bond market since the most recent high yield on December 10th and the most recent low the following day. 100% of trading since then has fallen inside those...
By 10am ET, today's trading volume has already surpassed that seen on December 23rd and 26th (both full trading days)--proof positive that the market is shifting out of holiday mode. Over the pas...
MBS are now down 2 ticks (.06) on the day and 5 ticks (.16) from many lenders' rate sheet print times. Jumpier lenders could actively be considering negative reprices. The average len...
Bonds have been losing ground slowly and steadily so far this morning and although we're just barely weaker on the day, MBS are flirting with an eighth of a point of weakness compared to the AM h...
Friday is merely a day to be watched in case it misbehaves. The econ calendar is essentially empty (just S&P manufacturing PMI), overnight volatility was minimal, and bonds are fairly close t...
MBS are down a quick eighth of a point from the most recent highs. Unless a lender repriced for the better at those highs, negative reprice risk is minimal and, indeed, not at all justified...
Human traders may be extremely underrepresented on today's half-day trading session, but the robots/algos know what to do with a sub-200k Jobless Claims print. Robots are also not smart eno...
If we turn up the magnification on our market-watching microscopes, it may seem like something important happened in the bond market overnight. 10yr yields were up by more than 3bps at one point ...
In addition to this week's holiday closure (early close Wednesday, fully closed Thursday), the econ calendar is also lacking in terms of potential sources of volatility. A majority of ...
This is more of a heads-up than a high-urgency reprice alert. If you were going to lock or float today, nothing that's happening right now should change your mind. But the "lock" crowd has a bit ...
Although the bond market is technically open today, it might as well not be. Late year holidays (Thanksgiving, X-mas, New Year) depress volume and liquidity more than any others. Today is neith...
While many government employees have the day off today and Friday, these are not new, official Federal Holidays. As such, the bond market is open on the same schedule as always. Incidentally, tha...
We've spent the past several days reiterating and lamenting the onset of the holiday trading doldrums--a time of year that sees vastly lower volumes/ liquidity /participation, and thus runs the r...
2025 is effectively over when it comes to meaningful shifts in the bond market. The coming days will be so heavily-affected by light volume/ liquidity that any apparently significant shifts woul...
There was a fair amount of momentum among financial news sources regarding the potential significance of last night's Bank of Japan (BOJ) announcement to the U.S. bond market. While it was clearl...
Great news for bonds on the inflation front this morning: Core annual inflation came in at 2.6% compared to a 3.0% forecast and 3.0% last time. It's the lowest reading of the cycle and the ...
Bonds staged a decent recovery heading into the 11am hour, but they've been selling somewhat steadily since then. While the selling seems to have leveled off for now, it leaves 5.0 MBS teet...
Wednesday is largely a placeholder as 2025's relevant trading days evaporate. Apart from the year-end influences on the 29th-31st, Thursday's CPI arguably represents the last opportunity to trade...
If there was one metric in this morning's data that should be helping the bond market, it's the uptick in the unemployment rate from 4.4% in September to 4.6% in November (a new cycle high). This...
Bonds have been selling fairly steadily since 10am with 10yr yields now down less than half a bp at 4.176 and MBS up only 1 tick (.03) on the day. 5.0 MBS coupons are down an eighth of a po...
The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) is responsible for the two most important economic reports to the bond market: The Employment Situation (aka jobs report or NFP) and The Consumer Price Index ...
A message from Marc Erickson:
For informational purposes only. This is not a commitment to lend or extend credit. Information and/or dates are subject to change without notice. All loans are subject to credit approval. Rates vary based upon market conditions and borrower qualification.
