MBS and Treasury Markets Archive

PPI Reaction Playing Out Better Than CPI So Far - Today, 2:21 PM

Tuesday's CPI reaction was frustrating. Bonds rallied for an hour only to sell off for the rest of the day starting at 9:30am. Things are off to a different sort of start today. PPI was a b...

Tue, 8:08 PM

What's Up With The Paradoxical CPI Reaction? - Tue, 8:08 PM

MBS Recap What's Up With The Paradoxical CPI Reaction? MBS Recap Matthew Graham | ...

Tue, 3:31 PM

Selling Continues; Reprice Risk Picking Up - Tue, 3:31 PM

Lenders who priced after the initial selling at 9:30am were dealing with MBS that were roughly unchanged on the day. Since then, we've fallen another 6 ticks (.19)--more than enough for a j...

Tue, 1:45 PM

CPI Gains Erased Quickly At 9:30am NYSE Open - Tue, 1:45 PM

Bonds had already leveled off after a fairly tame initial CPI rally, but they've quickly erased all of the AM gains after the 9:30am NYSE open. There is no new headline or event driving the...

Tue, 1:29 PM

Tariffs Show Up in CPI, But Not Enough to Hurt - Tue, 1:29 PM

If market watchers get out their magnifying glasses, they can certainly find some evidence of tariffs impacting inflation in various goods, but those goods are such a small part of the overall CP...

Tue, 12:35 PM

First Move is Stronger as Core CPI Comes in at 0.2 vs 0.3 - Tue, 12:35 PM

Core MM CPI 0.228 vs 0.3 f'cast, 0.1 prev Core YY CPI 2.9 vs 3.0 f'cast, 2.8 prev Headline MM CPI 0.3 vs 0.3 f'cast, 0.1 prev Although the unrounded n...

Mon, 7:26 PM

All Eyes on CPI - Mon, 7:26 PM

MBS Recap All Eyes on CPI MBS Recap Matthew Graham | 3:26 PM All Eyes ...

Mon, 2:49 PM

Down an Eighth From Highs - Mon, 2:49 PM

It's been an interesting morning for bonds inside the broader sideways context. Yields fell at 9:30am, all the way into positive territory, briefly. Those gains reversed in the past 25 minut...

Mon, 2:33 PM

Empty Calendar and a Sideways Start - Mon, 2:33 PM

Monday is proving to be a good candidate for a bonus summertime weekend day so far. Volumes and volatility were low overnight and trading levels are inconsequentially weaker after. There was a sm...

Fri, July 11, 9:09 PM

Bonds Bracing For CPI Impact - Fri, July 11, 9:09 PM

MBS Recap Bonds Bracing For CPI Impact MBS Recap Matthew Graham | 5:09 PM ...

Fri, July 11, 7:00 PM

Down an Eighth From Mid-AM Highs - Fri, July 11, 7:00 PM

There hasn't been any big, new push toward lower levels in MBS, but rather a slow grind to the weakest levels of the day. One can never be sure what's running through lenders' minds at times like...

Fri, July 11, 2:30 PM

Overnight Selling But Still in The Range - Fri, July 11, 2:30 PM

In terms of news that seems like it should be important, the biggest overnight development was the announcement of a 35% tariff on Canadian imports starting August 1st (up from the previously-sla...

Thu, July 10, 9:07 PM

Fed Speakers and Auction Help Bonds Hold Steady - Thu, July 10, 9:07 PM

MBS Recap Fed Speakers and Auction Help Bonds Hold Steady MBS Recap Matthew Graham...

Thu, July 10, 3:33 PM

Week's Only Relevant Data is Not Bond-Friendly - Thu, July 10, 3:33 PM

You would be hard pressed to find a week with less to offer in terms of scheduled economic data. In fact, it's not an overstatement to say that regular old weekly jobless claims data was th...

Thu, July 10, 12:38 PM

Very Modest Selling After Lower Jobless Claims - Thu, July 10, 12:38 PM

Jobless Claims 227k vs 235k f'cast, 232k prev Continued Claims 1965k vs 1980k f'cast, 1955k prev Any bond traders waiting for employment data to show signs of dete...

Wed, July 9, 8:29 PM

Correction to the Correction. Will it Last? - Wed, July 9, 8:29 PM

MBS Recap Correction to the Correction. Will it Last? MBS Recap Matthew Graham | 4...

Wed, July 9, 2:09 PM

Bonds Sticking to Predictable Script So Far This Week - Wed, July 9, 2:09 PM

Anyone who's spent much time around MBS Live knows about our favorite mantra regarding predictions. Specifically, they are for suckers --at least in the context of predicting future intere...

Tue, July 8, 7:44 PM

Correction Starting to Level Off? - Tue, July 8, 7:44 PM

MBS Recap Correction Starting to Level Off? MBS Recap Matthew Graham | 3:43 PM ...

Tue, July 8, 3:26 PM

Heads: They Win. Tails: You Lose - Tue, July 8, 3:26 PM

Amid a complete absence of actionable economic data in the new week, stocks and bonds have been left to focus on new developments on the tariff front. It seems like only yesterday that the "90 da...

Mon, July 7, 8:19 PM

Correction Continues Despite Tariff Announcements - Mon, July 7, 8:19 PM

MBS Recap Correction Continues Despite Tariff Announcements MBS Recap Matthew Grah...

Mon, July 7, 2:16 PM

Slow Start; Light Calendar This Week - Mon, July 7, 2:16 PM

Fresh off the rally reversal courtesy of last week's jobs report, the bond market now finds itself in a virtually data-free week with little else to inspire big departures from prevailing levels....

Thu, July 3, 7:25 PM

Big Market Reaction but Mortgages Outperform - Thu, July 3, 7:25 PM

MBS Recap Big Market Reaction but Mortgages Outperform MBS Recap Matthew Graham | ...

Thu, July 3, 2:23 PM

Jobs Report Comes in Stronger. Bonds React Logically - Thu, July 3, 2:23 PM

Apart from the fact that this morning's jobs report contrasted starkly from the slew of anecdotal evidence suggesting a weaker labor market in June, the morning has proceeded almost exactly as ex...

Thu, July 3, 12:33 PM

Bonds Selling Off After Stronger NFP - Thu, July 3, 12:33 PM

Nonfarm Payrolls 147k vs 110k f'cast, 139k prev Unemployment rate 4.1 vs 4.3 f'cast, 4.2 prev Despite almost every other employment report (or employment component ...

Wed, July 2, 7:43 PM

Bonds Circle The Wagons Ahead of High Risk NFP - Wed, July 2, 7:43 PM

MBS Recap Bonds Circle The Wagons Ahead of High Risk NFP MBS Recap Matthew Graham ...

Wed, July 2, 1:54 PM

Bonds Think About Rallying on ADP Data, But Already Getting Cold Feet - Wed, July 2, 1:54 PM

ADP employment was this morning's key economic report and it came out sharply weaker than expected (-33k vs 95k f'cast). There are many past examples of a "miss" of this size prompting a swift ra...

Wed, July 2, 12:23 PM

Bonds Erasing Overnight Losses After Sharply Weaker ADP - Wed, July 2, 12:23 PM

ADP Employment -33k vs 95k f'cast, 29k prev Bonds were moderately weaker in the overnight session but are erasing those losses after ADP employment came out much weaker than expe...

Tue, July 1, 8:06 PM

Traders Buy The Dip After AM Data - Tue, July 1, 8:06 PM

MBS Recap Traders Buy The Dip After AM Data MBS Recap Matthew Graham | 4:04 PM ...

Tue, July 1, 4:01 PM

Weakest Levels of The Day - Tue, July 1, 4:01 PM

MBS are now down a quarter point on the day and just over a quarter from the highs. Lenders who priced early in the morning are seeing 6 ticks (.19) of weakness from rate sheet print times ...

Tue, July 1, 2:33 PM

AM Data Possibly Arguing For a Bounce - Tue, July 1, 2:33 PM

Tuesday brings the week's first decent dose of meaningful economic data with both S&P/ISM Manufacturing PMIs and Job Openings. The PMI data was somewhat more debatable with headline lev...

Tue, July 1, 1:49 PM

Giving Up Overnight Gains - Tue, July 1, 1:49 PM

S&P Manufacturing PMI 52.9 vs 52.0 f'cast, 52.0 prev Bonds drifted sideways to slightly stronger in the overnight session with 10yr yields ultimately trading as low as 4.186 ...

Mon, June 30, 8:45 PM

Steady Gains in the PM Hours - Mon, June 30, 8:45 PM

MBS Recap Steady Gains in the PM Hours MBS Recap Matthew Graham | 4:44 PM ...

Mon, June 30, 2:14 PM

Slow, Sideways Start, But Month-End Volatility Always a Possibility - Mon, June 30, 2:14 PM

Month/quarter end trading is a somewhat esoteric and potentially frustrating concept for the typical market watcher because it seemingly violates the notion that market move for logical underlyin...

Fri, June 27, 7:24 PM

Modest Friday Bounce Does Little to Alter Bigger Picture - Fri, June 27, 7:24 PM

MBS Recap Modest Friday Bounce Does Little to Alter Bigger Picture MBS Recap Matth...

Fri, June 27, 7:17 PM

MBS Down Just Over an Eighth From Highs - Fri, June 27, 7:17 PM

MBS are now down 6 ticks (.19) on the day and just over an eighth from PM highs. Lenders who repriced for the better earlier could technically justify a negative reprice. Prices ar...

Fri, June 27, 2:04 PM

Minimal Impact From PCE Data - Fri, June 27, 2:04 PM

Bonds are slightly weaker to start the final trading day of the week, but that has nothing to do with this morning's PCE data. Despite being the Fed's favorite inflation index and despite c...

Fri, June 27, 1:43 PM

Down an Eighth From Highs - Fri, June 27, 1:43 PM

Although the initial reaction to data was modestly positive, bonds reversed course in the past few minutes and are now at the weakest levels of the day. Catalysts are scarce and open to deb...

Fri, June 27, 12:38 PM

PCE Inflation Slightly Higher, But No Major Reaction - Fri, June 27, 12:38 PM

Core PCE M/M 0.179 vs 0.1 f'cast Core PCE Y/Y 2.7 vs 2.6 f'cast, 2.6 prev Inflation adjusted spending -0.1 vs 0.1 f'cast, 0.2 prev Despite the slightl...

Thu, June 26, 7:32 PM

The Trend is Friendly For Now - Thu, June 26, 7:32 PM

MBS Recap The Trend is Friendly For Now MBS Recap Matthew Graham | 3:31 PM ...

Thu, June 26, 2:25 PM

Tons of Data, But Not a Ton of Movement - Thu, June 26, 2:25 PM

Visually, the number of line items in this morning's economic calendar may seem daunting. In fact, several of the reports sound like they should matter to the seasoned bond watcher (Durable Goods...

Thu, June 26, 12:38 PM

Generally Stronger Data, But Not Much of a Reaction - Thu, June 26, 12:38 PM

Jobless Claims 236k vs 245k f'cast, 246k prev Continued Claims 1974k vs 1950k f'cast, 1937k prev GDP -0.5 vs -0.2 f'cast Durable goods 16.4 vs...

Wed, June 25, 8:20 PM

Mid Day Reversal Leaves Bonds Slightly Stronger - Wed, June 25, 8:20 PM

MBS Recap Mid Day Reversal Leaves Bonds Slightly Stronger MBS Recap Matthew Graham...

Wed, June 25, 3:23 PM

Lighter Calendar and Light Selling - Wed, June 25, 3:23 PM

Bonds are taking a breath this morning after hitting the best levels in more than a month yesterday. The event calendar is much lighter than it seems at first glance. While there's always s...

Tue, June 24, 7:34 PM

Solid Response to Data and Dovishness - Tue, June 24, 7:34 PM

MBS Recap Solid Response to Data and Dovishness MBS Recap Matthew Graham | 3:33 PM...

Tue, June 24, 3:19 PM

Rally Continues as Powell Shows a Path to Rate Cuts - Tue, June 24, 3:19 PM

Powell's prepared remarks and Q&A at today's congressional testimony are showing the market a clearer path to the possibility of rate cuts in the near future. While Powell certainly sto...

Mon, June 23, 8:18 PM

Best Closing Levels in More Than a Month - Mon, June 23, 8:18 PM

MBS Recap Best Closing Levels in More Than a Month MBS Recap Matthew Graham | 4:17...

Mon, June 23, 7:43 PM

MBS Technically Down an Eighth From Highs - Mon, June 23, 7:43 PM

This is definitely one of those "heads-up" type of alerts that you should read before you simply lock. If you have not yet seen a positive reprice from the lender in question, there's virtuall...

Mon, June 23, 3:23 PM

Bonds Don't Always React to "War" Like You'd Expect - Mon, June 23, 3:23 PM

A vast majority of long-time bond watchers share the same general understanding of how war impacts rates. Specifically, the increased global economic uncertainty drives safe-haven demand for US T...

Fri, June 20, 9:00 PM