MBS and Treasury Markets Archive

Nick Hunter

President, Owner

River City Mortgage, LLC

www.rchomeloans.com

Fri, July 31, 8:08 PM

Esoteric Forex Drama Blasts Bonds, Maybe - Fri, July 31, 8:08 PM

MBS Recap Esoteric Forex Drama Blasts Bonds, Maybe MBS Recap Matthew Graham | 4:07...

Fri, July 31, 5:52 PM

More Yen Intervention. New Lows For MBS - Fri, July 31, 5:52 PM

There's been another wave of Treasury selling that lines up with another surge in Yen values. Based on this morning's headlines, this suggests large scale efforts on the part of US institutions t...

Fri, July 31, 1:46 PM

Quickly Moving to New Lows - Fri, July 31, 1:46 PM

10yr yields are launching higher, and in the highest volume of the day--now up 6bps at 4.734. MBS are down more than a quarter point and just over an eighth of a point since 9am. Most lenders ...

Fri, July 31, 1:09 PM

Japan Currency Intervention, Oil, and Data Causing Some Selling - Fri, July 31, 1:09 PM

Japan's Ministry of Finance (MOF) and central bank (BOJ) are a bit more closely linked than Treasury and the Fed. For example, the MOF can instruct the BOJ to sell a bunch of securities to pop up...

Thu, July 30, 8:14 PM

Bullets Dodged - Thu, July 30, 8:14 PM

MBS Recap Bullets Dodged MBS Recap Matthew Graham | 4:14 PM Bullets Do...

Thu, July 30, 1:40 PM

Sideways Start is a Victory - Thu, July 30, 1:40 PM

This morning could have been much worse. The bond market could have continued spiraling on fear that it is now responsible for conducting monetary policy--something that sounds weird when you fir...

Wed, July 29, 9:47 PM

What's Up With Today's Paradoxical Fed Reaction? - Wed, July 29, 9:47 PM

MBS Recap What's Up With Today's Paradoxical Fed Reaction? MBS Recap Matthew Graha...

Wed, July 29, 8:19 PM

Negative Reprice Risk Increasing - Wed, July 29, 8:19 PM

MBS are now at new lows for the day with 5.5 coupons down 10 ticks (.31) in total and 5-6 ticks (.16-.19) from the morning price plateau. Most lenders could technically justify a negative reprice...

Wed, July 29, 7:46 PM

Lenders Who Dropped Rates After Fed May Need to Reprice - Wed, July 29, 7:46 PM

The post-Fed move looked clear enough. MBS rallied more than 3/8ths of point in fairly short order. A few lenders responded with a logical positive reprice. MBS are now down a quarter point ...

Wed, July 29, 6:00 PM

Here's What Changed in The New Fed Announcement - Wed, July 29, 6:00 PM

The Federal Open Market Committee approved the following statement for release by a 12 9 – 0 3 vote: The Committee decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate a...

Wed, July 29, 4:08 PM

New Lows - Wed, July 29, 4:08 PM

Selling has been fairly gradual, but bonds are now at the weakest levels of the day. 10yr yields are up 4.1bps at 4.648. MBS are down 6 ticks (.19) and at 5 ticks (.16) from some lenders ra...

Wed, July 29, 1:49 PM

"Pause" Ends in Iran, But Probably Not For The Fed - Wed, July 29, 1:49 PM

The big news over the weekend was that the U.S. and Iran paused hostilities--something that led to 2 solid days of gains in the bond market. But in the overnight session, the pause ended as multi...

Tue, July 28, 8:04 PM

Giving Peace (And Bonds?) a Chance - Tue, July 28, 8:04 PM

MBS Recap Giving Peace (And Bonds?) a Chance MBS Recap Matthew Graham | 4:04 PM ...

Tue, July 28, 1:28 PM

Another Slightly Stronger Start - Tue, July 28, 1:28 PM

Once again, bond yields dropped in the overnight session in concert with lower oil prices. Today's iteration is less swift than yesterday's, but after last week's sell-off, we'll take any green w...

Mon, July 27, 8:15 PM

Compared to Oil, Yields Not Quite as Willing to Drop - Mon, July 27, 8:15 PM

MBS Recap Compared to Oil, Yields Not Quite as Willing to Drop MBS Recap Matthew G...

Mon, July 27, 12:51 PM

Less Bombing. More Rallying - Mon, July 27, 12:51 PM

It's a pretty simple morning for the bond market (and many other markets). While there's no formal ceasefire, both the U.S. and Iran have indicated a pause in the tit for tat airstrikes that have...

Fri, July 24, 7:38 PM

How Technical Do You Want to Be? - Fri, July 24, 7:38 PM

MBS Recap How Technical Do You Want to Be? MBS Recap Matthew Graham | 3:37 PM ...

Fri, July 24, 6:49 PM

Negative Reprice Risk Increasing Slightly - Fri, July 24, 6:49 PM

MBS are still up an eighth of a point, but are now down 5 ticks (.16) from some lenders' morning rate sheet print times (or positive reprice times). As such, the jumpier lenders could be on th...

Fri, July 24, 1:56 PM

Token Support in Bonds After Oil Drops Overnight - Fri, July 24, 1:56 PM

It's a straightforward morning in the bond market. We're not seeing any of the sorts of "unseen hand" trading that accounted for the timing of yesterday's pre-market weakness. We simply have ...

Thu, July 23, 8:55 PM

Bonds Not Keen To Catch Falling Knives - Thu, July 23, 8:55 PM

MBS Recap Bonds Not Keen To Catch Falling Knives MBS Recap Matthew Graham | 4:55 P...

Thu, July 23, 1:23 PM

Bearish Breakout For All The Normal Reasons - Thu, July 23, 1:23 PM

Welcome to post-Iran-War 2026. The only real relief for bonds since then was seen in June when there was hope that the war was over or at least winding down. Gas prices are back to multi-year hig...

Wed, July 22, 8:52 PM

Just Another Reasonably Bad Day For Bonds - Wed, July 22, 8:52 PM

MBS Recap Just Another Reasonably Bad Day For Bonds MBS Recap Matthew Graham | 4:5...

Wed, July 22, 2:37 PM

MBS Down an Eighth From Rate Sheet Print Times - Wed, July 22, 2:37 PM

The early crowd of lenders tends to release rates by 10am or shortly thereafter. MBS prices are now down an eighth of a point since then (5.0 coupons are down a bit more). The jumpier le...

Wed, July 22, 2:18 PM

Just a Bit Weaker as Oil Keeps Rising - Wed, July 22, 2:18 PM

For those not interested in overcomplicating things, it's fair enough to simply observe the resurgence of hostilities in the Iran war prompting a resurgence of fuel prices and bond selling due to...

Tue, July 21, 9:06 PM

Headwinds, Cont'd - Tue, July 21, 9:06 PM

MBS Recap Headwinds, Cont'd MBS Recap Matthew Graham | 5:05 PM Headwin...

Tue, July 21, 1:41 PM

Heads-Up: Down a Quick 6 Ticks (.19) - Tue, July 21, 1:41 PM

Once again, the 9:30am NYSE open has proved problematic for the bond market with modest overnight weakness giving way to more forceful selling over the past 10 min. 10yr yields are up an...

Tue, July 21, 1:26 PM

Bonds Grudgingly Giving Back Last Week's Inflation Rally - Tue, July 21, 1:26 PM

While last week's CPI and PPI reports were unabashedly great news, the bond market spent Friday and yesterday gradually unwinding most of the resulting gains. The least complicated way to approac...

Mon, July 20, 7:53 PM

New Week. Same Old Story - Mon, July 20, 7:53 PM

MBS Recap New Week. Same Old Story MBS Recap Matthew Graham | 3:53 PM ...

Mon, July 20, 3:40 PM

Negative Reprice Risk Increasing - Mon, July 20, 3:40 PM

MBS are down just under a quarter point on the day and 6 ticks (.19) from some early lenders' rate sheet print times. As such, the jumpier lenders could already be considering negative reprices.&...

Mon, July 20, 2:12 PM

No Major Data Leaves Bonds to Trade on Vibes - Mon, July 20, 2:12 PM

You've seen the "good vibes only" t-shirt perhaps? Bond traders left theirs at home this morning. That's unfortunate as there isn't much beyond vibes to set the tone this week. Over the weekend, ...

Fri, July 17, 8:35 PM

Roughly Unchanged After Gradual Weakness - Fri, July 17, 8:35 PM

MBS Recap Roughly Unchanged After Gradual Weakness MBS Recap Matthew Graham | 4:35...

Fri, July 17, 4:11 PM

MBS at Lows of The Day - Fri, July 17, 4:11 PM

5.0 MBS are now just over and eighth of a point and 5.5 MBS are down exactly an eighth of a point from the AM price plateau. Many lenders released rates during that plateau and are now appro...

Fri, July 17, 1:35 PM

Bonds Picking Up Some Safe-Haven Demand - Fri, July 17, 1:35 PM

In a month where bonds have made a visible reconnection with fuel prices thanks to the Iran war resurgence, there have been several notable departures in the correlation. Today is the latest exam...

Thu, July 16, 8:46 PM

Ultimately Uneventful Despite Modest Weakness - Thu, July 16, 8:46 PM

MBS Recap Ultimately Uneventful Despite Modest Weakness MBS Recap Matthew Graham |...

Thu, July 16, 3:26 PM

Are Bonds High on Crack (Spreads)? - Thu, July 16, 3:26 PM

The term "crack spread" is quickly becoming mainstream--especially over the past few weeks. It's more of a concept than a specific metric, but it most frequently refers to the margin between inpu...

Wed, July 15, 7:43 PM

Wednesday's Gains Had More Staying Power Than Tuesday's - Wed, July 15, 7:43 PM

MBS Recap Wednesday's Gains Had More Staying Power Than Tuesday's MBS Recap Matthe...

Wed, July 15, 1:20 PM

PPI Does Its Best CPI Impression. Bonds Like It - Wed, July 15, 1:20 PM

The Producer Price Index (PPI) is not normally a huge market mover, but it has its moments of moderate impact. Today is such a moment as PPI did its best to mimic yesterday's sharply lower CPI. T...

Tue, July 14, 8:42 PM

Why Were 10yr Yields Only a Few bps Lower Today? - Tue, July 14, 8:42 PM

MBS Recap Why Were 10yr Yields Only a Few bps Lower Today? MBS Recap Matthew Graha...

Tue, July 14, 12:56 PM

Strong Start After Sharply Lower CPI - Tue, July 14, 12:56 PM

The Consumer Price Index came in FAR below expectations with a core reading of 0.0 vs 0.2 forecasts. In unrounded terms, it was -0.17%. Headline CPI was more sharply negative than expected at -0....

Mon, July 13, 4:31 PM

Negative Reprice Risk Increasing - Mon, July 13, 4:31 PM

MBS are now down 10 ticks (.31) with 6 (.19) of those being seen since lender rate sheet print times. As such, jumpier lenders are now in a position to consider negative reprices. 10yr y...

Mon, July 13, 1:21 PM

Weekend Weakness And Another Showdown With a Technical Ceiling - Mon, July 13, 1:21 PM

Bonds are weaker to start the new week and the catalyst is simple. The U.S. ramped up air strikes in Iran, both in terms of number and distance inland. Iran responded by hitting various allied ta...

Fri, July 10, 7:50 PM

Some Bond-Specific Weakness in The Afternoon - Fri, July 10, 7:50 PM

MBS Recap Some Bond-Specific Weakness in The Afternoon MBS Recap Matthew Graham | ...

Fri, July 10, 5:12 PM

Down an Eighth From AM Plateau - Fri, July 10, 5:12 PM

MBS are now down an eighth of a point on the day and an eighth from the price plateau seen during many lenders' rate sheet print times. As such, the jumpier lenders are now on the thresh...

Fri, July 10, 2:05 PM

Empty Calendar Leaves Focus on War Headlines - Fri, July 10, 2:05 PM

The entire week has been a study in the rekindled love affair between bond yields and oil prices. The latter is fairly flat versus yesterday's latest levels, so it's no surprise to see bonds in t...

Thu, July 9, 8:11 PM

Slightly Stronger But There's a Catch - Thu, July 9, 8:11 PM

MBS Recap Slightly Stronger But There's a Catch MBS Recap Matthew Graham | 4:10 PM...

Thu, July 9, 1:49 PM

Oil and Yields Starting Out Slightly Lower - Thu, July 9, 1:49 PM

Bonds are starting the day just a hair stronger versus yesterday's close and there are three ways to look at it. At the most basic level, the move is so small that it doesn't deserve any explanat...

Wed, July 8, 7:50 PM

More War-Related Weakness, But With a Supportive Bounce - Wed, July 8, 7:50 PM

MBS Recap More War-Related Weakness, But With a Supportive Bounce MBS Recap Matthe...

Wed, July 8, 2:44 PM

Steady Selling; New Lows, But Limited Reprice Risk For Now - Wed, July 8, 2:44 PM

Bonds managed to stay mostly flat through 9am ET, but have been selling modestly and steadily since then. While the pace is gentle, it's adding up to the weakest levels of the day/week/month at t...

Wed, July 8, 1:27 PM

Only Modestly Weaker After Trump Says Ceasefire is Over - Wed, July 8, 1:27 PM

Iran-related headlines have jumped back to the realm of relevance this week and Wednesday morning's overnight session kicked things up another notch. Trump declared the ceasefire to be over and i...

Tue, July 7, 7:18 PM

Hormuz Back in The News - Tue, July 7, 7:18 PM

MBS Recap Hormuz Back in The News MBS Recap Matthew Graham | 3:17 PM H...

Nick Hunter

President, Owner

River City Mortgage, LLC

www.rchomeloans.com

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Reproduction or redistribution this newsletter, outside of the distribution services provided, is prohibited. Interest rate data provided in this newsletter are national averages. Rate/APR terms may differ. All information provided "as is" for informational purposes only.