MBS and Treasury Markets Archive

Nearly Unchanged After As-Expected PPI - Fri, November 13, 3:17 PM

This morning's Producer Price Index (PPI) came out as expected. The components that impact core PCE were also uneventful. Stocks and bonds initially rallied but the gains were erased in less than...

Thu, November 12, 9:09 PM

Why Did Bonds Sell Off So Sharply Today? - Thu, November 12, 9:09 PM

MBS Recap Why Did Bonds Sell Off So Sharply Today? MBS Recap Matthew Graham | 4:08...

Thu, November 12, 5:02 PM

Negative Reprice Risk Increasing - Thu, November 12, 5:02 PM

Bonds continue pressing into weaker territory as the damage to the stock market from Huang's resignation is giving way to GAINS for the NASDAQ (NVDA down 5% now vs 13% pre-market). MBS are dow...

Thu, November 12, 2:49 PM

Down More Than an Eighth Since 9:30am ET - Thu, November 12, 2:49 PM

Just a heads up for jumpy lenders with early rate sheets. MBS are down 3/8ths on the day and roughly 6 ticks (.19) since 9:30am ET. The NYSE open saw a fairly quick recovery in stocks and a bounc...

Thu, November 12, 2:43 PM

Back and Forth on Oil and NVDA - Thu, November 12, 2:43 PM

Bonds began the overnight session in roughly unchanged territory and were mostly sideways until just after 8am when Trump said "we don't need a deal with Iran." Oil prices and bond yields spiked ...

Tue, November 10, 9:37 PM

Is This The End of The Friendly Trend? - Tue, November 10, 9:37 PM

MBS Recap Is This The End of The Friendly Trend? MBS Recap Matthew Graham | 4:36 P...

Tue, November 10, 5:20 PM

Down Just Over an Eighth From Rate Sheet Print Times - Tue, November 10, 5:20 PM

Just a heads up for those of you whose rate sheets aren't substantially worse this morning. Some lenders apparently didn't price conservatively enough (the custom is to add a bit of extra pain to...

Tue, November 10, 2:38 PM

No "Yeah Buts" in Today's CPI. It's All Bad For Bonds - Tue, November 10, 2:38 PM

Some inflation reports have counterpoints even if they appear high at first glance. This one is just all-around not great for bonds. It would be a genuine surprise to see a meaningful reversal fr...

Mon, November 9, 9:29 PM

Bonds Looking Increasingly Comfortable With Recent Gains - Mon, November 9, 9:29 PM

MBS Recap Bonds Looking Increasingly Comfortable With Recent Gains MBS Recap Matth...

Mon, November 9, 3:58 PM

Down Over an Eighth Since 9:30am ET - Mon, November 9, 3:58 PM

For those of you with rate sheet time stamps near 9:30am ET, there is already a modicum of negative reprice risk. MBS are down 6 ticks (.19) since then as the rebound in equities continues . 1...

Mon, November 9, 3:48 PM

Slightly Weaker as Stocks Recover. CPI On Deck - Mon, November 9, 3:48 PM

In the bigger picture, today offers little by way of actionable new info for the bond market. Unsurprisingly, volatility is being dictated by a decently big bounce in equities. Stocks were sidewa...

Fri, November 6, 9:13 PM

Down Just Over an Eighth From Highs - Fri, November 6, 9:13 PM

This update is only relevant for clients who were already planning on locking today and who have already seen a positive reprice this afternoon. It's entirely possible that zero lenders will repr...

Fri, November 6, 8:54 PM

Very Strong Showing For Bonds Considering The Headwinds - Fri, November 6, 8:54 PM

MBS Recap Very Strong Showing For Bonds Considering The Headwinds MBS Recap Matthe...

Fri, November 6, 2:56 PM

Down an Eighth From AM Highs - Fri, November 6, 2:56 PM

MBS are still not much weaker than they were before the jobs report, but they're now down an eighth from the AM highs. Some of the earliest lenders publish rate sheets around the time of those hi...

Fri, November 6, 2:25 PM

Super Strong Jobs Report NOT Hitting Bonds Like You'd Expect - Fri, November 6, 2:25 PM

Nonfarm payrolls came in 100k higher than forecast and the unemployment dropped even as the participation rate moved higher. That's a recipe for a bond market sell-off if we ever saw one. But apa...

Thu, November 5, 8:04 PM

Stocks Got Rocked. Bonds Picked Up Some Slack - Thu, November 5, 8:04 PM

MBS Recap Stocks Got Rocked. Bonds Picked Up Some Slack MBS Recap Matthew Graham |...

Thu, November 5, 3:31 PM

Swift Reversal at NYSE Open, But Bonds are Reluctant - Thu, November 5, 3:31 PM

As has been the case so many times in recent months, the 9:30am NYSE open proved to be the most actionable time of morning for the bond market. Tech stocks got brutalized with the NASDAQ plummeti...

Thu, November 5, 2:06 PM

Modestly Weaker For a Few Potential Reasons - Thu, November 5, 2:06 PM

Bonds are starting the day a few bps weaker. 10yr yields are just over 4.90% and considering they were almost 50bps higher a month ago, you're free to go about your business today without scrutin...

Wed, November 4, 9:19 PM

Elections, Oil, and Neocloud Stocks, Oh My! - Wed, November 4, 9:19 PM

MBS Recap Elections, Oil, and Neocloud Stocks, Oh My! MBS Recap Matthew Graham | 4...

Wed, November 4, 3:53 PM

Losses Mostly Erased Now - Wed, November 4, 3:53 PM

Just a quick update to amend the recent alert. 10yr yields are back down near the lows of the day (-5.2bps at 4.918) and MBS have bounced 3 ticks (.09). Negative reprice risk is quickly ...

Wed, November 4, 3:50 PM

Volatile Gains as Markets Digest Elections and Data - Wed, November 4, 3:50 PM

There are several moving parts to today's trading levels, but the TL;DR is that bonds are holding modest gains so far despite some 2-way volatility. The overnight session started out with the str...

Wed, November 4, 3:20 PM

Down More Than an Eighth From Highs - Wed, November 4, 3:20 PM

Bonds are still stronger on the day, but they're well off their highs now with investors rotating aggressively back into equities. MBS are down 6 ticks (.19) from the AM highs. Because those high...

Tue, November 3, 9:16 PM

Early Strength Thwarted by Data and Resilience in Equities - Tue, November 3, 9:16 PM

MBS Recap Early Strength Thwarted by Data and Resilience in Equities MBS Recap Mat...

Tue, November 3, 3:05 PM

Losing ground after strong Job Openings data - Tue, November 3, 3:05 PM

Job Openings (JOLTS) came out much stronger than expected and bonds are continuing to move into negative territory, following an initial pull back after additional war-related headlines. ...

Tue, November 3, 1:57 PM

Just a Bit More Evidence For War Headlines and Oil Prices Helping Bonds - Tue, November 3, 1:57 PM

Bonds were sideways to slightly weaker overnight, but they're rallying back to unchanged levels in the 8am hour following favorable headlines regarding the Iran war. Iranian officials float...

Mon, November 2, 9:27 PM

Little-Moved by Huge Drop in Oil and Tech Stocks - Mon, November 2, 9:27 PM

MBS Recap Little-Moved by Huge Drop in Oil and Tech Stocks MBS Recap Matthew Graha...

Mon, November 2, 8:18 PM

MBS Down Over an Eighth From Highs - Mon, November 2, 8:18 PM

For most lenders, unless you've already seen a positive reprice, this will be more of a heads-up than a true alert. MBS are still up 2 ticks (.06) on the day, but down 5 ticks (.16) from...

Mon, November 2, 3:22 PM

Slightly Stronger Start. Mostly Holding After ISM Data - Mon, November 2, 3:22 PM

Bonds were initially a hair weaker at the start of the overnight session, but rallied gradually after that. The sharpest gains arrived at the 9:30am NYSE open, suggesting money manager reallocati...

Fri, October 30, 7:16 PM

Bonds Almost Able to Break Even Thanks to Tech Turmoil - Fri, October 30, 7:16 PM

MBS Recap Bonds Almost Able to Break Even Thanks to Tech Turmoil MBS Recap Matthew...

Fri, October 30, 4:53 PM

Quick Recovery After Anthropic Headlines - Fri, October 30, 4:53 PM

FT is reporting Anthropic may not receive an "investment grade" rating after its forthcoming IPO. This would make AI-related financing more expensive and generally contribute to the "tech jitters...

Fri, October 30, 4:44 PM

Weakest Levels - Fri, October 30, 4:44 PM

MBS are down an eighth on the day and just over an eighth versus some lenders' rate sheet print times. Reprice risk is minimal at this very moment, but would progressively increase if we...

Fri, October 30, 1:59 PM

Bond Yields Not Eager to Follow Stocks Lower - Fri, October 30, 1:59 PM

Bonds were initially stronger in the overnight session with 10yr yields briefly falling under 4.90%. The rally generally aligned with overnight losses in the stock market, at least at first. When...

Thu, October 29, 9:08 PM

Tech Jitters are Back. Bonds Like It - Thu, October 29, 9:08 PM

MBS Recap Tech Jitters are Back. Bonds Like It MBS Recap Matthew Graham | 5:07 PM ...

Thu, October 29, 3:58 PM

Down More Than an Eighth Since Rate Sheets Came Out - Thu, October 29, 3:58 PM

Lenders who published rates between 9:30 and 10:15am ET are now seeing 6 ticks (.19) of weakness in MBS. Negative reprices are now a possibility for the jumpier among them. There is no new justif...

Thu, October 29, 1:48 PM

No Whammies From PCE Data. Tech Plunge Helping - Thu, October 29, 1:48 PM

PCE inflation was almost perfectly in line with even the unrounded expectations. The monthly core number was 0.32 vs 0.34 (or .3 vs .3 on most econ calendars). Perhaps the modest miss helps expla...

Wed, October 28, 8:50 PM

Minimal Impact From Fed - Wed, October 28, 8:50 PM

MBS Recap Minimal Impact From Fed MBS Recap Matthew Graham | 4:48 PM M...

Wed, October 28, 6:20 PM

Weakest Levels After Fed Announcement - Wed, October 28, 6:20 PM

MBS are back to their weakest levels of the day after the Fed announcement. The move has been relatively low in volume and fairly gradual. We continue to expect a far greater chance of actual vol...

Wed, October 28, 6:00 PM

Here's What Changed in The New Fed Announcement - Wed, October 28, 6:00 PM

The Federal Open Market Committee approved the following statement for release by a 12 10 – 0 2 vote: The Committee decided to raise maintain the target range for the federal fu...

Wed, October 28, 2:38 PM

Bonds Trying to Ignore Tech Sector Healing - Wed, October 28, 2:38 PM

Coreweave stock moved higher again overnight and Coreweave bond yields continued lower, with some issues now back to yields seen 2 weeks ago. Treasuries/MBS have been doing their best to hold sid...

Wed, October 28, 2:24 PM

Down a Quick Eighth From AM Highs - Wed, October 28, 2:24 PM

Lenders who were out with rates before 10:15am are already seeing an eighth of a point of weakness. The jumpier crowd has occasionally been known to reprice in these situations.

Tue, October 27, 8:40 PM

Boring, Sideways Day. Does Wednesday's Fed Announcement Even Matter? - Tue, October 27, 8:40 PM

MBS Recap Boring, Sideways Day. Does Wednesday's Fed Announcement Even Matter? MBS Recap ...

Tue, October 27, 2:07 PM

Mostly Consolidating Ahead of Fed. Some Pressure From Neocloud Bounce - Tue, October 27, 2:07 PM

"Neocloud" has entered the commentary. This is shorthand for the market segment in which Coreweave operates. Neocloud companies have been the epicenter of recent concerns in tech that have helped...

Mon, October 26, 8:15 PM

Bonds Hold Ground Despite Some Healing in Tech - Mon, October 26, 8:15 PM

MBS Recap Bonds Hold Ground Despite Some Healing in Tech MBS Recap Matthew Graham ...

Mon, October 26, 1:46 PM

Slightly Stronger Start, But Generally Sideways and "Waiting" - Mon, October 26, 1:46 PM

Bonds are technically just a hair stronger this morning, but in the slightly bigger picture, nothing has happened yet this week (not that we'd expect that to be the case before 10am on a Monday)....

Fri, October 23, 7:53 PM

Slightly Weaker, But Much Stronger on The Week - Fri, October 23, 7:53 PM

MBS Recap Slightly Weaker, But Much Stronger on The Week MBS Recap Matthew Graham ...

Fri, October 23, 2:24 PM

Down Just Over an Eighth From Highs - Fri, October 23, 2:24 PM

Here's your obligatory daily heads-up that MBS have dropped just over an eighth of a point from AM highs (frequent occurrence of late). Very few lenders--if any--will see this as grounds...

Fri, October 23, 1:16 PM

Et Tu, S&P PMI? - Fri, October 23, 1:16 PM

Little has changed between yesterday's close and this morning's early trading. 10yr yields are still several bps under 5%. MBS are still effectively at the highest levels in a month. Tech i...

Thu, October 22, 8:48 PM