There's some relatively quick selling underway in Treasuries, spilling over to MBS. 5.0 coupons are down just over an eighth of a point from intraday highs (also at new lows for the day).&n...
This morning's PCE inflation data was in line with expectations calling for a core monthly reading of 0.2%. In fact, the unrounded number was 0.16+ which annualizes at a perfect 2.0%. ...
M/M Core PCE
0.2 vs 0.2 f'cast, 0.2 prev
Y/Y Core PCE
2.6 vs 2.7 f'cast
Don't look now, but inflation is getting to be "boring" with the past 4 reports calmly playi...
There is some MBS-specific weakness in the bond market this afternoon with 5.0 coupons down a quick 2 ticks (.06). The resulting levels are no lower than the AM lows, but the departure from...
There was a solid decade between 2010 and 2020 where weekly Jobless Claims data was completely inconsequential. The labor market had taken the hit from the great financial crisis and there ...
MBS are down 2 ticks (.06) on the day and 6 ticks (.19) from some lenders' rate sheet print times. As such, negative reprices are a risk.
10yr yields are up 1.4bps at 3.841. Overal...
It would have been hard for the present week to be any more of a boring, sideways grind than the previous week, but so far, so boring! Why do we say that? Consider that this is the 14...
Bonds are under a bit of pressure this morning with a modest extension of weakness that began in European trading hours. While this morning's selling seems to have leveled off for domestic ...
This is more of a heads-up than an urgent reprice alert. Volumes are low and bonds have been pushed around a bit by the 9:30am NYSE open. This resulted in a quick correction from...
The Durable Goods report is a somewhat inconsistent report in terms of its ability to influence the bond market. There are definitely examples of big reactions, but equally as often, the da...
It's been a slow, uneventful week so far in terms of scheduled events. Even though we certainly saw some elevated volume and volatility over the past two days, trading levels continued to g...
MBS are now down a quarter point on the day and 6 ticks from the AM highs. Lenders who priced near those highs are increasingly likely to be considering negative reprices.
10yr yields ar...
There are no new headlines or market movers in play, but bonds have been slowly drifting toward weaker levels. 10yr yields are now up 6.5bps at 3.866.
MBS are down 6 ticks (.19) on the d...
There is an ongoing bias toward better buying and lower yields in the bond market in spite of a string of decent economic reports in the past week. Just this morning, we have 2 of the week'...
Jobless Claims
232k vs 230k f'cast, 227k prev
Continued Claims
1863k vs 1870k f'cast, 1859k prev
Bonds were moderately weaker overnight in a move that is just as ea...
MBS are still modestly higher on the day, but fell roughly an eighth of a point from their PM price plateau heading into the close. The only potential reprices risk would be among lenders w...
Today brought the release of the first benchmark revision to the payroll data through March 2024. It caused widespread confusion both before and after it came out--partly because it didn't ...
While there was plenty of small-scale volatility surrounding the scheduled release of the QECW data, much of that volatility was driven by uncertainty regarding the actual number. Now that ...
Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QECW) for March 2024
Revised down 818k
Expectations for this revision ranged from 600k to 1m. The bond market is initially l...
While there will certainly be some excitement at some point in the future (possibly even the near future), and while we are already well acquainted with exciting times in the past, there are occa...
It's been a very slow, sideways day overall without any notable drama.
While there's still no real drama, MBS are down 3 ticks from their highs of the day (.09). This isn't enough for se...
In past examples of imminent shifts in Fed policy, the late August Jackson Hole symposium has been a relevant--and sometimes substantial--market mover. That impulse has faded in recent year...
At first glance, the first half of the trading day has been volatile for the bond market, but at second glance, trading levels are just returning in line with the same narrow, sideways ranges see...
It's a surprisingly straightforward morning for the bond market. The two most important economic reports did exactly the opposite of what bond bulls wanted. The biggest shock was obvi...
These things happen... While it's true that CPI is one of the two hardest-hitting economic reports (the other being the jobs report), it's also true that the data needs to come in higher or...
Core M/M CPI
0.2 vs 0.2 f'cast, 0.1 prev
(unrounded, 0.165)
Core Y/Y CPI
3.2 vs 3.2 f'cast, 3.3 prev
Bonds were a bit stronger before CPI and are paradoxically l...
Although last month's CPI data was well-received by the bond market for coming in below expectations and showing a notable drop in the shelter component, the producer price index was much higher ...
Core Producer Prices m/m
0.0 vs 0.2 f'cast, 0.3 prev
last month revised down 0.1
Core Y/Y PPI
2.4 vs 2.7 f'cast, 3.0 prev
Recall that the last installment of PPI...
Summertime Fridays and Mondays are prone to low volumes--especially when they are virtually data-free, as is the case to begin the new week. The perennial downside of low volume is that it ...
10yr yields are still down 5bps on the day, but are now up in line with the AM highs at 3.942.
5.5 UMBS are still nearly an eighth of a point higher on the day, but have fallen an eighth from ...
Now that it's essentially over, it's easy to label this week as a quintessential consolidation and/or modest correction. In fact, even before it began, last Friday's lock/float guidance con...
