Selling has continued fairly steadily, but at a slow pace following the JOLTS data. MBS are now down 2 ticks (.06) on the day and just over an eighth of a point from the AM highs (which coi...
Job Openings
7.744m vs 7.480m f'cast, 7.372 prev
Job Quits
3.326m vs 3.071m prev
Bonds like it when job openings and job "quits" are falling (or coming in much lowe...
Of all of the motivations in all the markets, this one had to walk into ours. Or perhaps it rolled in on tank tracks. Just over an hour ago, South Korea's president declared martial l...
It can be a bit tricky to understand the roll of various forms of positioning when it comes to otherwise inexplicable movement in the bond market. It's also a fairly vague term that can ref...
MBS are now up only 3 ticks (.09) on the day after being up just over 7 ticks (.22) around some lenders' rate sheet print times. As such, the jumpiest lenders could be right on the edge of ...
Although this morning contained the week's most active slate of economic data, it has completely failed to inspire even the most modest of responses in the bond market, both in terms of volume an...
While none of the weakness is driven by economic data, bonds have been selling off gradually and steadily so far in the AM hours. After coming into the day 1 tick (0.03) stronger, MBS are now dow...
Monday brought a rare event for the bond market in the recent context as yields fell throughout the day and never really thought about bouncing. It was all the more uncommon because the rally was...
Of all of Trump's political appointees, Treasury Secretary is the most consequential for the bond market ("Treasury" is right in the title, after all!). Bessent got the nod on Friday night after ...
The bond market has been forced to take the victories that are within reach. As November winds down, the best victory we could have hoped for was the absence of any additional defeat. ...
S&P Services PMI
57.0 vs 55.2 f'cast, 55.0 prev
The word "internals" in economic data refers to additional components of any given report that add context and nuance beyond t...
It's been a bit of a chaotic morning so far, but in a narrow enough range to make it relatively boring in the bigger picture. Bonds began the day in slightly stronger territory and managed ...
MBS are still technically 1 tick (.03) higher on the day but have fallen to their weakest levels over the past hour. Lenders who priced near the AM highs are seeing 5 ticks (.16) of weaknes...
There has been plenty of news over the past 48 hours regarding the U.S. greenlighting Ukraine to use long range missiles to attack Russia. Yesterday's examples resulted in relatively modest...
Bonds aren't doing anything very interesting at the moment, or today in general, but AM gains have gradually eroded to the point of MBS being near unchanged levels. 5.5 coupons are still up...
Tuesday brings a classic example of a seemingly significant geopolitical headline resulting in a completely underwhelming bond market reaction. When it comes to such matters, we m...
While financial news outlets continue focusing on politics and Trump's cabinet picks, the bond market is expressing anxiety about the risk that economic data continues coming in hotter than ...
This alert is only relevant for lenders who repriced for the better in response to the mid-day rally and more specifically, to those who repriced for the better after 1:40pm ET. Those lende...
All 3 of this morning's 8:30am economic reports were stronger than expected, and the 9:15am report was right in line with expectations. Of these, Retail Sales is the headliner, coming in at...
Retail Sales
0.4 vs 0.3 f'cast
last month revised to 0.8 from 0.4
NY Fed Manufacturing
31.2 vs -0.7 f'cast, -11.9 prev
Import Prices
0.3 vs -0.1 f'cast, -0.4 p...
MBS are now down an eighth on the day, back in line with AM lows and down at least a quarter point from most lenders' rate sheet print times. Negative reprices are increasingly possible.
...
This alert is only an "alert" for lenders who repriced near the highs of the day between 12:15 and 1pm ET. MBS are down 6 ticks since then (.19). As such, lenders who repriced for the...
The morning has been both straightforward and interesting. The straightforward part involved a moderate sell-off following stronger economic data. Jobless claims fell (both weekly ini...
Jobless Claims
217k vs 223k f'cast, 221k prev
Continued Claims
1.873k vs 1.888k f'cast, 1.892k prev
Core PPI M/M
0.3 vs 0.3 f'cast, 0.2 prev
Core PPI Y/Y...
Bonds continue selling off in a measured, linear fashion. 10yr yields are now up 3.2bps on the day at 4.456. MBS are up 3 ticks (.09), outperforming due to yield curve trading (i.e. s...
Bonds managed a moderate rally in response to this morning's inflation data. While it has since been mostly erased, it was as strong of a showing as we could have possibly hoped for at the ...
Once again, the 930am NYSE open is proving to be an obvious turning point for the bond market. In today's case, it transformed the rally into a sell-off, and has almost fully eroded the gai...
Bonds have been selling off in fits and starts after an initial recovery at the NYSE open. That lasted all of 30 minutes and the selling has been linear since then.
MBS are d...
In the run up to the election, we offered constant reminders that a 10bp move in Treasuries wasn't really a big deal, and that such volatility could be expected well into November. That's t...
MBS aren't much lower in price than they were at the time of the last alert, but a few additional lenders may be convinced to consider negative reprices this time around. 5.5 coupons are no...
MBS are still near unchanged levels on the day, but that's down more than an eighth of a point from the AM highs. Later-pricing lenders may have put out rate sheets near those highs. ...
"Buy the rumor, sell the news" is an age-old aphorism in financial markets for a reason. It accurately speaks to the real and repeatable phenomenon whereby traders trade all the information...
Bonds have bounced back to their strongest levels of the day shortly after the last alert. This began after he said they wouldn't rule out or in the previously anticipated pace of 2025 rate...
If there was a specific catalyst, it was Powell saying they've been watching the run up in rates and it's nowhere near where it was a year ago. This is true, but bonds don't love hearing it...
Fed says labor market conditions have generally eased as opposed to saying "job gains have slowed" previously
Fed drops the phrase about gaining greater confidence that inflation is moving tow...
