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Modestly Stronger With Bonds Tracking Stock Losses - Fri, November 21, 2:31 PM

It was a pretty straightforward overnight session with a very high degree of correlation between bond yields and stock prices. The final leg of the rally arrived on comments from NY Fed Pres Will...

Thu, November 20, 9:21 PM

Decent Gains Remain Intact; Stock Market Contribution is a Wild Card - Thu, November 20, 9:21 PM

MBS Recap Decent Gains Remain Intact; Stock Market Contribution is a Wild Card MBS Recap ...

Thu, November 20, 2:19 PM

Mixed Reaction to Mixed Jobs Data - Thu, November 20, 2:19 PM

It's shaping up to be a "no whammies" sort of morning for the bond market. There's no denying that the jobs report was a highly tradeable event. The 30 minutes of volume following the ...

Thu, November 20, 1:34 PM

MBS Update:

Mixed Signals in Jobs Data; Bonds Holding Ground - Thu, November 20, 1:34 PM

Non Farm Payrolls (Sep) 119K vs 50K f'cast, 22K prev Participation Rate (Sep) 62.4% vs -- f'cast, 62.3% prev Philly Fed Business Index (Nov) -1.7 vs -3.1 f'cast, ...

Wed, November 19, 9:23 PM

Fed Minutes Push Yields Higher - Wed, November 19, 9:23 PM

MBS Recap Fed Minutes Push Yields Higher MBS Recap Matthew Graham | 4:21 PM ...

Wed, November 19, 7:41 PM

Down an Eighth From Mid-Day Highs - Wed, November 19, 7:41 PM

Shorter term bonds are losing ground this afternoon following the Fed Minutes release. The key issue there was the confirmation that "many" Fed meeting participants didn't think a December ...

Wed, November 19, 3:11 PM

Yields Following Stocks Higher; Fed Minutes on Deck - Wed, November 19, 3:11 PM

Correlation between stocks and bonds is hit and miss depending on other factors. Before the age of more aggressive Fed intervention, it was more common to see yields move in concert with stocks. ...

Tue, November 18, 9:46 PM

Modest Gains After Mid-Day Volatility - Tue, November 18, 9:46 PM

MBS Recap Modest Gains After Mid-Day Volatility MBS Recap Matthew Graham | 4:46 PM...

Tue, November 18, 4:38 PM

Down an Eighth From AM Highs - Tue, November 18, 4:38 PM

Bonds have been gradually selling off for the past 25 minutes. 10yr yields are still down 1.1bps on the day, but up to 4.13 versus lows of 4.08+. MBS are still up 2 ticks (.06) on the day, but...

Tue, November 18, 3:22 PM

Bonds Buy The Dip Regardless of AM Data - Tue, November 18, 3:22 PM

We've seen a clumsy, confused return of various economic reports this morning (several reports were no previously announced with rescheduled release dates). Thankfully, the surprise releases were...

Mon, November 17, 9:07 PM

Uneventful Monday; MBS Underperform - Mon, November 17, 9:07 PM

MBS Recap Uneventful Monday; MBS Underperform MBS Recap Matthew Graham | 4:06 PM ...

Mon, November 17, 2:30 PM

How Much Will This Week's Delayed Jobs Report Matter? - Mon, November 17, 2:30 PM

The jobs report (for September) will be released on Thursday. It is the first major econ data to re-appear after the shutdown. Notably, that's because it was ready to publish at the time of ...

Fri, November 14, 9:58 PM

Gains Completely Erased; Stocks Looking More Culpable - Fri, November 14, 9:58 PM

MBS Recap Gains Completely Erased; Stocks Looking More Culpable MBS Recap Matthew ...

Fri, November 14, 2:57 PM

Giving Up Most of The Gains - Fri, November 14, 2:57 PM

10yr yields are nearly back to unchanged levels now after being down more than 5bps earlier this morning. A majority of the move has played out in the 25 minutes since the 9:30am NYSE open-...

Fri, November 14, 2:24 PM

Stronger Start After 7am Magical Mystery Move - Fri, November 14, 2:24 PM

Bonds were sideways to slightly weaker in the overnight session. 4am to 7am was exceptionally flat and narrow. This is notable because stocks had done more than half of their overnight sell...

Thu, November 13, 9:08 PM

Weakest Levels; Just a Bit More Reprice Risk - Thu, November 13, 9:08 PM

MBS are now down a quarter point on the day and 6 ticks (.19) from intraday highs. This is only 2 ticks (.06) lower vs the previous lows, but that's enough to increase negative reprice risk for t...

Thu, November 13, 9:02 PM

Moderately Weaker With Only The Reopening to Blame - Thu, November 13, 9:02 PM

MBS Recap Moderately Weaker With Only The Reopening to Blame MBS Recap Matthew Gra...

Thu, November 13, 7:29 PM

Down an Eighth From Highs - Thu, November 13, 7:29 PM

MBS are now at the weakest levels of the day, down 6 ticks (.19) overall and an eighth of a point from the highs. Negative reprices aren't especially likely for the average lender, but the possib...

Thu, November 13, 1:06 PM

Shutdown is Over. Don't Get Excited - Thu, November 13, 1:06 PM

First off, the market expected a shutdown resolution by mid November and especially since this past weekend. That's the reason today's news means essentially nothing in terms of being a sur...

Wed, November 12, 9:10 PM

Bonds Look Past 10yr Auction to Maintain Focus on Jobs - Wed, November 12, 9:10 PM

MBS Recap Bonds Look Past 10yr Auction to Maintain Focus on Jobs MBS Recap Matthew...

Wed, November 12, 3:21 PM

Stronger Start Thanks to Weekly ADP Data - Wed, November 12, 3:21 PM

ADP has been in the monthly data game for a long time when it comes to payroll counts, but their weekly report is the new kid on the econ data block. The public has only had access for a few week...

Mon, November 10, 9:27 PM

Counting Down to Ending The Shutdown After Tuesday's Holiday Closure - Mon, November 10, 9:27 PM

MBS Recap Counting Down to Ending The Shutdown After Tuesday's Holiday Closure MBS Recap ...

Mon, November 10, 4:18 PM

Shutdown Resolution in Sight. What Next? - Mon, November 10, 4:18 PM

If members of the House can make it back to D.C. in sufficient numbers, there's a real possibility that the shutdown will end this week. Some marketplace chatter is attempting to connect overnigh...

Fri, November 7, 8:48 PM

Uneventful Friday Ahead of Holiday-Shortened Week - Fri, November 7, 8:48 PM

MBS Recap Uneventful Friday Ahead of Holiday-Shortened Week MBS Recap Matthew Grah...

Fri, November 7, 3:51 PM

Econ Data Keeping Bonds Flat - Fri, November 7, 3:51 PM

Although bonds began the day in roughly unchanged territory, they began losing ground shortly thereafter. Things changed at the 9:30am NYSE open as stock losses helped arrest the selling pressure...

Thu, November 6, 10:14 PM

Have Bonds Found Their Post-Fed Footing? - Thu, November 6, 10:14 PM

MBS Recap Have Bonds Found Their Post-Fed Footing? MBS Recap Matthew Graham | 5:13...

Thu, November 6, 3:49 PM

New Data Sources Bring New Inspiration - Thu, November 6, 3:49 PM

The shutdown has not only placed more emphasis on the alternative data that was already in the rotation, but also fueled interest in new sources. One that you'll likely hear more about in the com...

Wed, November 5, 4:16 PM

New Lows and Perhaps Some Reprice Risk - Wed, November 5, 4:16 PM

This is a bit of a tricky situation when it comes to assessing reprice risk. The short version is that the stronger your initial rate sheets are, the bigger the risk. Also, any rate s...

Wed, November 5, 3:28 PM

2 Key Reports, 2 Reasons to Sell Bonds - Wed, November 5, 3:28 PM

Today is a rare day when it comes to economic data. The first Wednesday of any given month is often an important one for economic data because ISM Services often falls on Wednesday, joining...

Wed, November 5, 3:01 PM

More Selling After ISM Data - Wed, November 5, 3:01 PM

ISM Biz Activity (Oct) 54.3 vs -- f'cast, 49.9 prev ISM N-Mfg PMI (Oct) 52.4 vs 50.8 f'cast, 50.0 prev ISM Services Employment (Oct) 48.2 vs 47.6 f'cast, 47.2 pre...

Wed, November 5, 1:19 PM

MBS Update:

Losing Some Ground After ADP - Wed, November 5, 1:19 PM

ADP Employment 42k vs 25k f'cast, -32k prev 42k may feel like a low payroll count, and it may not feel like significant beat vs the 25k expectation, but bonds are nonetheless sel...

Tue, November 4, 9:49 PM

Wednesday More Likely to Take Cues From Econ Data - Tue, November 4, 9:49 PM

MBS Recap Wednesday More Likely to Take Cues From Econ Data MBS Recap Matthew Grah...

Tue, November 4, 2:53 PM

Heavy Selling in Stocks Providing Small Boost For Bonds - Tue, November 4, 2:53 PM

It doesn't always work like this, but today's overnight session saw the classic "conventional wisdom" trade with stocks prices and bond yields falling in concert. Believe it or not, this is the e...

Mon, November 3, 9:00 PM

Light Volatility After Initial Losses - Mon, November 3, 9:00 PM

MBS Recap Light Volatility After Initial Losses MBS Recap Matthew Graham | 4:00 PM...

Mon, November 3, 4:03 PM

Weaker Start Despite Modest Boost From ISM Data - Mon, November 3, 4:03 PM

Bonds were moderately weaker in the overnight session with most of the selling arriving at 7:56am ET when Alphabet filed for a large corporate bond offering, estimated at $15bln. Corporate bon...

Fri, October 31, 7:53 PM

Sideways Overall Despite Hawkish Fed Speakers - Fri, October 31, 7:53 PM

MBS Recap Sideways Overall Despite Hawkish Fed Speakers MBS Recap Matthew Graham...

Fri, October 31, 4:28 PM

Negative Reprice Risk Increasing - Fri, October 31, 4:28 PM

MBS are now back to unchanged on the day and down 6 ticks (.19) from the AM highs. Because those highs coincide with most lenders' rate sheet print times, negative reprices are becoming a s...

Fri, October 31, 3:43 PM

Down an Eighth From Highs - Fri, October 31, 3:43 PM

Bonds are still in modestly positive territory but off the best levels to the tune of an eighth of a point in MBS. This could be considered the earliest threshold for negative reprice risk ...

Fri, October 31, 2:29 PM

Some Early Month-End Buying - Fri, October 31, 2:29 PM

With the shutdown ongoing, and the big ticket econ data vanished into the void, there's little for the bond market to do apart from get its books in order for month-end. If you're curious a...

Thu, October 30, 8:59 PM

Uneventfully Flat After Initial Weakness - Thu, October 30, 8:59 PM

MBS Recap Uneventfully Flat After Initial Weakness MBS Recap Matthew Graham | 4:58...

Thu, October 30, 7:20 PM

Negative Reprice Risk Increasing For Some Lenders - Thu, October 30, 7:20 PM

MBS are only down 2 ticks (.06) on the day, but lenders who repriced near the highest levels of the day are now seeing 6 ticks (.19) of weakness. That's enough for many of those lenders to ...

Thu, October 30, 2:22 PM

Enthusiasm Curbed. Back to Waiting - Thu, October 30, 2:22 PM

The simplest way to understand yesterday's post-Fed sell-off is as follows. The market's enthusiasm for 3 Fed rate cuts in 2025 had grown a bit too large for the Fed's liking. The market was near...

Wed, October 29, 7:12 PM

Another Hawkish Powell Press Conference Harshes Bonds' Mellow - Wed, October 29, 7:12 PM

MBS Recap Another Hawkish Powell Press Conference Harshes Bonds' Mellow MBS Recap &nbs...

Wed, October 29, 6:39 PM

Reprices Becoming Likely After Powell Comment on Dec Cut - Wed, October 29, 6:39 PM

POWELL: RATE CUT IN DECEMBER IS 'FAR FROM' FOREGONE CONCLUSION - BBG Following that comment, bonds have sold off more aggressively, with MBS down 9 ticks (.28) and 10yr yields up 6.5bps at 4.0...

Wed, October 29, 6:28 PM

Weakest Levels Ahead of Powell Press Conference - Wed, October 29, 6:28 PM

MBS are still down 6 ticks (.19) on the day and 5 ticks (.16) from lender rate sheet print times, but Treasury yields are up 5bps at 4.025 (new highs for the day). This means there's an ongoin...

Wed, October 29, 6:03 PM

First Move After Fed is Mixed - Wed, October 29, 6:03 PM

Rates cut 25bps as expected QT ended (MBS proceeds reinvested into TSYs as expected) Statement verbiage was a slight upgrade for the economy 10yr yields initially moved a few bps high...

Wed, October 29, 6:01 PM

Here's What Changed in The New Fed Announcement - Wed, October 29, 6:01 PM

Recent Available indicators suggest that growth of economic activity moderated in the first half of the year has been expanding at a moderate pace . Job gains have slowed this year , and t...

Wed, October 29, 5:41 PM