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Token Support in Bonds After Oil Drops Overnight - Fri, July 24, 1:56 PM

It's a straightforward morning in the bond market. We're not seeing any of the sorts of "unseen hand" trading that accounted for the timing of yesterday's pre-market weakness. We simply have ...

Thu, July 23, 8:55 PM

Bonds Not Keen To Catch Falling Knives - Thu, July 23, 8:55 PM

MBS Recap Bonds Not Keen To Catch Falling Knives MBS Recap Matthew Graham | 4:55 P...

Thu, July 23, 1:23 PM

Bearish Breakout For All The Normal Reasons - Thu, July 23, 1:23 PM

Welcome to post-Iran-War 2026. The only real relief for bonds since then was seen in June when there was hope that the war was over or at least winding down. Gas prices are back to multi-year hig...

Wed, July 22, 8:52 PM

Just Another Reasonably Bad Day For Bonds - Wed, July 22, 8:52 PM

MBS Recap Just Another Reasonably Bad Day For Bonds MBS Recap Matthew Graham | 4:5...

Wed, July 22, 2:37 PM

MBS Down an Eighth From Rate Sheet Print Times - Wed, July 22, 2:37 PM

The early crowd of lenders tends to release rates by 10am or shortly thereafter. MBS prices are now down an eighth of a point since then (5.0 coupons are down a bit more). The jumpier le...

Wed, July 22, 2:18 PM

Just a Bit Weaker as Oil Keeps Rising - Wed, July 22, 2:18 PM

For those not interested in overcomplicating things, it's fair enough to simply observe the resurgence of hostilities in the Iran war prompting a resurgence of fuel prices and bond selling due to...

Tue, July 21, 9:06 PM

Headwinds, Cont'd - Tue, July 21, 9:06 PM

MBS Recap Headwinds, Cont'd MBS Recap Matthew Graham | 5:05 PM Headwin...

Tue, July 21, 1:41 PM

Heads-Up: Down a Quick 6 Ticks (.19) - Tue, July 21, 1:41 PM

Once again, the 9:30am NYSE open has proved problematic for the bond market with modest overnight weakness giving way to more forceful selling over the past 10 min. 10yr yields are up an...

Tue, July 21, 1:26 PM

Bonds Grudgingly Giving Back Last Week's Inflation Rally - Tue, July 21, 1:26 PM

While last week's CPI and PPI reports were unabashedly great news, the bond market spent Friday and yesterday gradually unwinding most of the resulting gains. The least complicated way to approac...

Mon, July 20, 7:53 PM

New Week. Same Old Story - Mon, July 20, 7:53 PM

MBS Recap New Week. Same Old Story MBS Recap Matthew Graham | 3:53 PM ...

Mon, July 20, 3:40 PM

Negative Reprice Risk Increasing - Mon, July 20, 3:40 PM

MBS are down just under a quarter point on the day and 6 ticks (.19) from some early lenders' rate sheet print times. As such, the jumpier lenders could already be considering negative reprices.&...

Mon, July 20, 2:12 PM

No Major Data Leaves Bonds to Trade on Vibes - Mon, July 20, 2:12 PM

You've seen the "good vibes only" t-shirt perhaps? Bond traders left theirs at home this morning. That's unfortunate as there isn't much beyond vibes to set the tone this week. Over the weekend, ...

Fri, July 17, 8:35 PM

Roughly Unchanged After Gradual Weakness - Fri, July 17, 8:35 PM

MBS Recap Roughly Unchanged After Gradual Weakness MBS Recap Matthew Graham | 4:35...

Fri, July 17, 4:11 PM

MBS at Lows of The Day - Fri, July 17, 4:11 PM

5.0 MBS are now just over and eighth of a point and 5.5 MBS are down exactly an eighth of a point from the AM price plateau. Many lenders released rates during that plateau and are now appro...

Fri, July 17, 1:35 PM

Bonds Picking Up Some Safe-Haven Demand - Fri, July 17, 1:35 PM

In a month where bonds have made a visible reconnection with fuel prices thanks to the Iran war resurgence, there have been several notable departures in the correlation. Today is the latest exam...

Thu, July 16, 8:46 PM

Ultimately Uneventful Despite Modest Weakness - Thu, July 16, 8:46 PM

MBS Recap Ultimately Uneventful Despite Modest Weakness MBS Recap Matthew Graham |...

Thu, July 16, 3:26 PM

Are Bonds High on Crack (Spreads)? - Thu, July 16, 3:26 PM

The term "crack spread" is quickly becoming mainstream--especially over the past few weeks. It's more of a concept than a specific metric, but it most frequently refers to the margin between inpu...

Wed, July 15, 7:43 PM

Wednesday's Gains Had More Staying Power Than Tuesday's - Wed, July 15, 7:43 PM

MBS Recap Wednesday's Gains Had More Staying Power Than Tuesday's MBS Recap Matthe...

Wed, July 15, 1:20 PM

PPI Does Its Best CPI Impression. Bonds Like It - Wed, July 15, 1:20 PM

The Producer Price Index (PPI) is not normally a huge market mover, but it has its moments of moderate impact. Today is such a moment as PPI did its best to mimic yesterday's sharply lower CPI. T...

Tue, July 14, 8:42 PM

Why Were 10yr Yields Only a Few bps Lower Today? - Tue, July 14, 8:42 PM

MBS Recap Why Were 10yr Yields Only a Few bps Lower Today? MBS Recap Matthew Graha...

Tue, July 14, 12:56 PM

Strong Start After Sharply Lower CPI - Tue, July 14, 12:56 PM

The Consumer Price Index came in FAR below expectations with a core reading of 0.0 vs 0.2 forecasts. In unrounded terms, it was -0.17%. Headline CPI was more sharply negative than expected at -0....

Mon, July 13, 4:31 PM

Negative Reprice Risk Increasing - Mon, July 13, 4:31 PM

MBS are now down 10 ticks (.31) with 6 (.19) of those being seen since lender rate sheet print times. As such, jumpier lenders are now in a position to consider negative reprices. 10yr y...

Mon, July 13, 1:21 PM

Weekend Weakness And Another Showdown With a Technical Ceiling - Mon, July 13, 1:21 PM

Bonds are weaker to start the new week and the catalyst is simple. The U.S. ramped up air strikes in Iran, both in terms of number and distance inland. Iran responded by hitting various allied ta...

Fri, July 10, 7:50 PM

Some Bond-Specific Weakness in The Afternoon - Fri, July 10, 7:50 PM

MBS Recap Some Bond-Specific Weakness in The Afternoon MBS Recap Matthew Graham | ...

Fri, July 10, 5:12 PM

Down an Eighth From AM Plateau - Fri, July 10, 5:12 PM

MBS are now down an eighth of a point on the day and an eighth from the price plateau seen during many lenders' rate sheet print times. As such, the jumpier lenders are now on the thresh...

Fri, July 10, 2:05 PM

Empty Calendar Leaves Focus on War Headlines - Fri, July 10, 2:05 PM

The entire week has been a study in the rekindled love affair between bond yields and oil prices. The latter is fairly flat versus yesterday's latest levels, so it's no surprise to see bonds in t...

Thu, July 9, 8:11 PM

Slightly Stronger But There's a Catch - Thu, July 9, 8:11 PM

MBS Recap Slightly Stronger But There's a Catch MBS Recap Matthew Graham | 4:10 PM...

Thu, July 9, 1:49 PM

Oil and Yields Starting Out Slightly Lower - Thu, July 9, 1:49 PM

Bonds are starting the day just a hair stronger versus yesterday's close and there are three ways to look at it. At the most basic level, the move is so small that it doesn't deserve any explanat...

Wed, July 8, 7:50 PM

More War-Related Weakness, But With a Supportive Bounce - Wed, July 8, 7:50 PM

MBS Recap More War-Related Weakness, But With a Supportive Bounce MBS Recap Matthe...

Wed, July 8, 2:44 PM

Steady Selling; New Lows, But Limited Reprice Risk For Now - Wed, July 8, 2:44 PM

Bonds managed to stay mostly flat through 9am ET, but have been selling modestly and steadily since then. While the pace is gentle, it's adding up to the weakest levels of the day/week/month at t...

Wed, July 8, 1:27 PM

Only Modestly Weaker After Trump Says Ceasefire is Over - Wed, July 8, 1:27 PM

Iran-related headlines have jumped back to the realm of relevance this week and Wednesday morning's overnight session kicked things up another notch. Trump declared the ceasefire to be over and i...

Tue, July 7, 7:18 PM

Hormuz Back in The News - Tue, July 7, 7:18 PM

MBS Recap Hormuz Back in The News MBS Recap Matthew Graham | 3:17 PM H...

Tue, July 7, 6:57 PM

Reprice Risk Increasing After Oil-Related Headlines - Tue, July 7, 6:57 PM

*US IS REVOKING IRAN-RELATED GENERAL LICENSE TO EXPORT OIL *IRAN'S ACTIONS IN STRAIT OF HORMUZ WHOLLY UNACCEPTABLE: OFFICIAL Following these newswires, oil prices went even higher and bond y...

Tue, July 7, 2:05 PM

Lows of The Day, Minor Early Reprice Risk - Tue, July 7, 2:05 PM

Bonds are selling off following another oil price spike after another tanker was hit by "something" (this time, a UAV) in The Strait. 10yr yields are up 5bps at 4.52. MBS are down ...

Tue, July 7, 1:46 PM

Modest Pressure, Light Data - Tue, July 7, 1:46 PM

From summertime Monday to summertime Tuesday... Yesterday's modest strength is now erased by today's modest weakness. In both cases, the movement is too small to worry about obvious catalysts, th...

Mon, July 6, 8:03 PM

Uneventful Summertime Monday - Mon, July 6, 8:03 PM

MBS Recap Uneventful Summertime Monday MBS Recap Matthew Graham | 4:03 PM ...

Mon, July 6, 2:19 PM

Steady Start; No Drama From ISM Data - Mon, July 6, 2:19 PM

Bonds weathered the 3-day weekend without issue. We started the day modestly stronger, but have moved back closer to unchanged levels in the first 2 hours. The day's only big-ticket (or semi-big-...

Thu, July 2, 6:17 PM

Not Reading Too Much Into Late Day Reversal - Thu, July 2, 6:17 PM

MBS Recap Not Reading Too Much Into Late Day Reversal MBS Recap Matthew Graham | 2...

Thu, July 2, 5:48 PM

Weakest Post-Data Levels At The Close - Thu, July 2, 5:48 PM

There are less than 14 minutes to go in today's holiday-shortened session, but bonds are back in line with their weakest post-data trading levels heading into the close. 10yr yields are up 1.1bps...

Thu, July 2, 1:05 PM

Red Night, Green Morning After Weaker Jobs Data - Thu, July 2, 1:05 PM

Bonds continued drifting gently higher in the overnight session with 10yr yields just barely edging above 4.50% before today's big jobs report (the only calendar event of note before the holiday ...

Wed, July 1, 7:46 PM

Bonds Find Some Solace in Warsh Despite a Bit More Selling - Wed, July 1, 7:46 PM

MBS Recap Bonds Find Some Solace in Warsh Despite a Bit More Selling MBS Recap Mat...

Wed, July 1, 7:22 PM

Down Just Over an Eighth From The Highs - Wed, July 1, 7:22 PM

Bonds hit their highs just after 10am this morning and have been selling slowly since then. The last few minutes bring 5.0 UMBS down 5 ticks (.16) versus those highs. The catch is that "just afte...

Wed, July 1, 1:28 PM

Tuesday Sell-Off Sticking; Warsh and ISM On Deck - Wed, July 1, 1:28 PM

Bonds have added modestly to Tuesday's big quarter-end sell-off (a phenomenon that has nothing to do with the sorts of fundamental developments that dictate a vast majority of market movement). T...

Tue, June 30, 8:07 PM

Negative Reprices Now Likely - Tue, June 30, 8:07 PM

Quarter-end selling continues (although it could be considered "new quarter selling" now that we're past the time of day where traders have marked their close-of-business trading levels for Q2).&...

Tue, June 30, 7:59 PM

Why We Saw Steady Selling All Day - Tue, June 30, 7:59 PM

MBS Recap Why We Saw Steady Selling All Day MBS Recap Matthew Graham | 3:58 PM ...

Tue, June 30, 7:10 PM

Negative Reprice Risk Increasing - Tue, June 30, 7:10 PM

Bonds have been selling slowly and steadily all day. MBS are now down a quarter point in total and roughly 6 ticks (.19) from early lenders' rate sheet print times. Negative reprices are now beco...

Tue, June 30, 5:17 PM