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Incidental Weakness But No Big Picture Change - Mon, 8:39 PM

MBS Recap Incidental Weakness But No Big Picture Change MBS Recap Matthew Graham |...

Mon, 7:04 PM

Weakest levels of the day - Mon, 7:04 PM

Lenders who priced after 10am are now seeing at least an eighth of a point of weakness in 5.0 UMBS. As such, the jumpier lenders in that crowd could be considering a negative reprice. 10yr ...

Mon, 12:57 PM

Overnight Losses Thanks to Overseas Markets - Mon, 12:57 PM

On paper, it was supposed to have been a sleepy session for bonds with nothing of note on the econ calendar. But in practice, we're seeing one of the larger instances of overnight selling in mont...

Fri, October 3, 8:59 PM

Weaker Day, Stronger Week - Fri, October 3, 8:59 PM

MBS Recap Weaker Day, Stronger Week MBS Recap Matthew Graham | 4:59 PM ...

Fri, October 3, 7:34 PM

Weakest Levels of The Day - Fri, October 3, 7:34 PM

Bonds have been sliding into weaker territory after the 3pm CME close with 10yr yields up 3.8bps at 4.12 and MBS down 6 ticks (.19) on the day. Any lender that priced before 10:15am is s...

Fri, October 3, 2:38 PM

MBS Down More Than an Eighth - Fri, October 3, 2:38 PM

Between 10am and 10:10am, MBS were sideways, so we hesitate to chalk this weakness up to the ISM data. But whatever the underlying motivation (and there may be none, apart from the gradual sellin...

Fri, October 3, 2:12 PM

Slightly Weaker After Mixed ISM Data - Fri, October 3, 2:12 PM

With NFP on hold due to the shutdown, today's ISM Services was our only chance for for data driven volatility in the 2nd half of the week. A big beat/miss in this report is certainly capabl...

Thu, October 2, 8:04 PM

Ultra Quiet Session, But Ultimately Stronger - Thu, October 2, 8:04 PM

MBS Recap Ultra Quiet Session, But Ultimately Stronger MBS Recap Matthew Graham | ...

Thu, October 2, 1:45 PM

Data-Free, Thanks to Shutdown - Thu, October 2, 1:45 PM

As a reminder, economic data published by government entities is on hold during the shutdown. Today, that means no Jobless Claims (also no Factory Orders, but we don't care about that report anyw...

Wed, October 1, 7:53 PM

Best Closing Levels in More Than a Week, But Still Generally Flat - Wed, October 1, 7:53 PM

MBS Recap Best Closing Levels in More Than a Week, But Still Generally Flat MBS Recap &n...

Wed, October 1, 12:32 PM

Stronger Start After ADP Comes in Much Weaker - Wed, October 1, 12:32 PM

Bonds were already a hair stronger coming into the ADP data, but the results (-32k vs 50k forecast and previous month revised to -3k from 54k) have provided an obvious tailwind. With the governme...

Tue, September 30, 8:12 PM

Gains Erased by Month/Quarter-End Trading - Tue, September 30, 8:12 PM

MBS Recap Gains Erased by Month/Quarter-End Trading MBS Recap Matthew Graham | 4:1...

Tue, September 30, 7:26 PM

Negative Reprice Risk Increasing - Tue, September 30, 7:26 PM

Month-end position squaring is contributing to just a bit more weakness in the bond market. MBS are now down 6 ticks (.19) from AM highs and negative reprices are becoming a stronger possib...

Tue, September 30, 6:03 PM

MBS Down an Eighth From AM Highs - Tue, September 30, 6:03 PM

This isn't necessarily a full-blown reprice risk situation--more of a heads up that prices are now an eighth of a point below the AM highs. Those highs began around 10am. Most of the jumpie...

Tue, September 30, 3:25 PM

Stronger Start on Downbeat Data - Tue, September 30, 3:25 PM

No new news on the probably government shutdown, but betting markets show increased odds, for whatever that's worth. The only reason to watch or care about the shutdown (for bond watching purpose...

Mon, September 29, 9:08 PM

Waiting on Details as Bonds Reinforce The Range - Mon, September 29, 9:08 PM

MBS Recap Waiting on Details as Bonds Reinforce The Range MBS Recap Matthew Graham...

Mon, September 29, 2:00 PM

Volatility Potential Hinges on Shutdown Odds - Mon, September 29, 2:00 PM

Under normal circumstance, we look forward to the first Friday of any given month as the day that the jobs report takes a swing at sending the strongest signal for rates of any monthly economic r...

Fri, September 26, 8:56 PM

Quiet Friday Ahead of Highly Uncertain Week - Fri, September 26, 8:56 PM

MBS Recap Quiet Friday Ahead of Highly Uncertain Week MBS Recap Matthew Graham | 4...

Fri, September 26, 2:36 PM

Minimal Reaction to PCE Data - Fri, September 26, 2:36 PM

PCE may be the most relevant inflation report when it comes to assessing progress toward the Fed's 2% target, but it is not the most relevant report to the bond market. The reporting lag is the k...

Thu, September 25, 7:53 PM

Reasonably Resilient After AM Losses - Thu, September 25, 7:53 PM

MBS Recap Reasonably Resilient After AM Losses MBS Recap Matthew Graham | 3:50 PM ...

Thu, September 25, 2:54 PM

Stronger Data Hurting Bonds - Thu, September 25, 2:54 PM

It's been a fairly straightforward morning so far with economic data coming out much stronger than expected. While the reports in question are not in the "big ticket" category of market mov...

Thu, September 25, 12:34 PM

MBS Update:

Losing Ground After Stronger Data - Thu, September 25, 12:34 PM

Continued Claims (Sep)/13 1,926K vs 1930K f'cast, 1920K prev Core CapEx (Aug) 0.6% vs -0.1% f'cast, 1.1% prev Core PCE Prices QoQ FinalQ2 2.60% vs 2.5% f'cast, 3....

Wed, September 24, 8:06 PM

Weaker Thanks to 2 Kinds of "Supply" - Wed, September 24, 8:06 PM

MBS Recap Weaker Thanks to 2 Kinds of "Supply" MBS Recap Matthew Graham | 4:05 PM ...

Wed, September 24, 6:36 PM

Down an Eighth From AM Highs - Wed, September 24, 6:36 PM

MBS opened only a hair weaker, but then set a consistent range from 8:30am through 2pm. In the past few minutes, prices have fallen an eighth of a point below the top of that range. This co...

Wed, September 24, 3:33 PM

Quieter Calendar Leaves Focus on 5yr Auction - Wed, September 24, 3:33 PM

It would be an overstatement to say that this week's econ calendar has been "active," but yesterday at least had unscripted comments from Fed Chair Powell, several other Fed speakers, and an occa...

Tue, September 23, 8:15 PM

Modestly Stronger After No Whammies From Powell - Tue, September 23, 8:15 PM

MBS Recap Modestly Stronger After No Whammies From Powell MBS Recap Matthew Graham...

Tue, September 23, 3:03 PM

Which Powell Will We Get Today? - Tue, September 23, 3:03 PM

Fed Chair Powell speaks today at a chamber of commerce luncheon in Providence. While the venue may not possess the gravitas of last week's press conference, any opportunity for Q&A with the F...

Mon, September 22, 7:46 PM

Slow Burn With Little to Blame - Mon, September 22, 7:46 PM

MBS Recap Slow Burn With Little to Blame MBS Recap Matthew Graham | 3:46 PM ...

Mon, September 22, 6:46 PM

Negative Reprice Risk Increasing - Mon, September 22, 6:46 PM

10yr yields are up almost 2bps at 4.145 and MBS are down 6 ticks (.19) on the day. Most lenders are now seeing at least an eighth of a point of weakness in MBS since morning rate sheet prin...

Mon, September 22, 3:35 PM

Down Just Over an Eighth From Highs - Mon, September 22, 3:35 PM

Bonds have had two mini bouts of selling so far this morning. The first played out more gradually and took MBS to the brink of an eighth point drop from the AM highs. The most recent ...

Mon, September 22, 3:11 PM

Deluge of Fed Speakers as Market Waits For Next Week's Jobs Report - Mon, September 22, 3:11 PM

Although the present week brings the release of PCE inflation for August, and although PCE is the most relevant inflation data when it comes to assessing progress toward the 2% target, we still w...

Fri, September 19, 7:31 PM

Uneventfully Sideways At Modestly Weaker Levels - Fri, September 19, 7:31 PM

MBS Recap Uneventfully Sideways At Modestly Weaker Levels MBS Recap Matthew Graham...

Fri, September 19, 4:23 PM

Down Just Over an Eighth of a Point From Highs - Fri, September 19, 4:23 PM

Lenders who released initial rate sheets between 9:45 and 10:15am are now seeing an eighth of a point of weakness in MBS prices (5.0). As such, the jumpiest among them could technically jus...

Fri, September 19, 3:23 PM

It's Not as Bad as it Seems - Fri, September 19, 3:23 PM

In your defense, perhaps you're not too bothered or concerned about the market/rate movement since Fed day. But if you are, here's some perspective. With the exception of the past 2 weeks, 10yr y...

Thu, September 18, 8:36 PM

Will September Deja Vu Continue? - Thu, September 18, 8:36 PM

MBS Recap Will September Deja Vu Continue? MBS Recap Matthew Graham | 4:32 PM ...

Thu, September 18, 1:44 PM

An Alert, But Not Exactly a "Reprice" Alert - Thu, September 18, 1:44 PM

The main function of an alert on MBS Live is to serve as a warning for potential negative reprices. Sometimes, they are simply used to highlight the type of market movement that would result in n...

Thu, September 18, 1:28 PM

Losing Ground After Stronger Econ Data - Thu, September 18, 1:28 PM

This morning's economic reports (jobless claims and Philly Fed) are not notoriously big market movers, but many analysts gave ample credit to Claims for driving last Thursday morning's rally.&nbs...

Wed, September 17, 8:44 PM

Fed Day Selling Spree as Press Conference Trumps The Dots - Wed, September 17, 8:44 PM

MBS Recap Powell Press Conference Trumps The Dots, Sparking Moderate Sell-Off MBS Recap ...

Wed, September 17, 8:35 PM

Negative Reprices Increasingly Likely If You Haven't Seen One Yet - Wed, September 17, 8:35 PM

MBS are now down almost 3/8ths of a point on the day and easily over a quarter point from morning rate sheet print times. As such, any lender who has yet to reprice for the worse is highly likely...

Wed, September 17, 6:55 PM

Negative Reprice Risk Increasing - Wed, September 17, 6:55 PM

Rally reversal continues. MBS now down a quarter point on the day and 10yr up 5bps at 4.08. General reason: Powell's push-back on dots as predictive of 3 cuts in 2025. Negative ...

Wed, September 17, 6:40 PM

Gains Vanish As Press Conference Begins - Wed, September 17, 6:40 PM

The main issue for markets was the following comment: Fed Chair Powell: Individual Forecasts Are Not A Plan, Policy Not On Preset Course With that, MBS gave up all of the gains and ar...

Wed, September 17, 6:03 PM

MBS Update:

First Reaction to Fed Announcement is Stronger - Wed, September 17, 6:03 PM

25bp cut, as expected Dot plot comparison attached. Median at 3.625 (2 more 2025 cuts) Bonds are rallying as expected in the "2 more cuts" scenario. 10yr down 1.9bps at 4.01 and...

Wed, September 17, 6:00 PM

Here's What Changed in The New Fed Announcement - Wed, September 17, 6:00 PM

Although swings in net exports continue to affect the data, recent Recent indicators suggest that growth of economic activity moderated in the first half of the year. The Job gains have slowe...

Wed, September 17, 2:51 PM

What to Expect From The Fed Today - Wed, September 17, 2:51 PM

The Fed rate announcement is at 2pm ET. A single 25bp rate cut is fully priced in to the bond market and that cut will not be responsible for any volatility you see at 2pm. A 50bp cut is so...

Tue, September 16, 8:03 PM

Big Shift Toward 5.0 Coupons Continues - Tue, September 16, 8:03 PM

MBS Recap Big Shift Toward 5.0 Coupons Continues MBS Recap Matthew Graham | 4:02 P...

Tue, September 16, 3:26 PM

Down Over an Eighth From AM Highs - Tue, September 16, 3:26 PM

The only downside of this morning's post-data recovery was that it set a higher level for MBS during some lenders' rate sheet print times. From those highs around 9:45am, MBS are now down 5 ticks...

Tue, September 16, 2:02 PM

Bonds Easily Clearing Last Pre-Fed Hurdle - Tue, September 16, 2:02 PM

After last week's CPI data was taken mostly in stride, the only other potential economic data hurdle was this morning's Retail Sales report. Whereas CPI was merely on the hotter side of the ...

Tue, September 16, 12:33 PM