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No Whammies From PCE Data. Tech Plunge Helping - Today, 1:48 PM

PCE inflation was almost perfectly in line with even the unrounded expectations. The monthly core number was 0.32 vs 0.34 (or .3 vs .3 on most econ calendars). Perhaps the modest miss helps expla...

Wed, 8:50 PM

Minimal Impact From Fed - Wed, 8:50 PM

MBS Recap Minimal Impact From Fed MBS Recap Matthew Graham | 4:48 PM M...

Wed, 6:20 PM

Weakest Levels After Fed Announcement - Wed, 6:20 PM

MBS are back to their weakest levels of the day after the Fed announcement. The move has been relatively low in volume and fairly gradual. We continue to expect a far greater chance of actual vol...

Wed, 6:00 PM

Here's What Changed in The New Fed Announcement - Wed, 6:00 PM

The Federal Open Market Committee approved the following statement for release by a 12 10 – 0 2 vote: The Committee decided to raise maintain the target range for the federal fu...

Wed, 2:38 PM

Bonds Trying to Ignore Tech Sector Healing - Wed, 2:38 PM

Coreweave stock moved higher again overnight and Coreweave bond yields continued lower, with some issues now back to yields seen 2 weeks ago. Treasuries/MBS have been doing their best to hold sid...

Wed, 2:24 PM

Down a Quick Eighth From AM Highs - Wed, 2:24 PM

Lenders who were out with rates before 10:15am are already seeing an eighth of a point of weakness. The jumpier crowd has occasionally been known to reprice in these situations.

Tue, 8:40 PM

Boring, Sideways Day. Does Wednesday's Fed Announcement Even Matter? - Tue, 8:40 PM

MBS Recap Boring, Sideways Day. Does Wednesday's Fed Announcement Even Matter? MBS Recap ...

Tue, 2:07 PM

Mostly Consolidating Ahead of Fed. Some Pressure From Neocloud Bounce - Tue, 2:07 PM

"Neocloud" has entered the commentary. This is shorthand for the market segment in which Coreweave operates. Neocloud companies have been the epicenter of recent concerns in tech that have helped...

Mon, 8:15 PM

Bonds Hold Ground Despite Some Healing in Tech - Mon, 8:15 PM

MBS Recap Bonds Hold Ground Despite Some Healing in Tech MBS Recap Matthew Graham ...

Mon, 1:46 PM

Slightly Stronger Start, But Generally Sideways and "Waiting" - Mon, 1:46 PM

Bonds are technically just a hair stronger this morning, but in the slightly bigger picture, nothing has happened yet this week (not that we'd expect that to be the case before 10am on a Monday)....

Fri, October 23, 7:53 PM

Slightly Weaker, But Much Stronger on The Week - Fri, October 23, 7:53 PM

MBS Recap Slightly Weaker, But Much Stronger on The Week MBS Recap Matthew Graham ...

Fri, October 23, 2:24 PM

MBS Update:

Down Just Over an Eighth From Highs - Fri, October 23, 2:24 PM

Here's your obligatory daily heads-up that MBS have dropped just over an eighth of a point from AM highs (frequent occurrence of late). Very few lenders--if any--will see this as grounds...

Fri, October 23, 1:16 PM

Et Tu, S&P PMI? - Fri, October 23, 1:16 PM

Little has changed between yesterday's close and this morning's early trading. 10yr yields are still several bps under 5%. MBS are still effectively at the highest levels in a month. Tech i...

Thu, October 22, 8:48 PM

Tech Tanks and Bonds Pick Up The Slack - Thu, October 22, 8:48 PM

MBS Recap Tech Tanks and Bonds Pick Up The Slack MBS Recap Matthew Graham | 4:47 P...

Thu, October 22, 8:17 PM

Heads Up: MBS More Than an Eighth Off Highs - Thu, October 22, 8:17 PM

There is very little negative reprice risk for the average lender as they're still not fully caught up with the improvements in MBS. But for those few lenders who have aggressively repriced for t...

Thu, October 22, 1:18 PM

Don't Overthink It. Same Old (New) Story - Thu, October 22, 1:18 PM

Oil prices are up. Bond yields are down sharply. If this was early September, that wouldn't make sense. Bonds decoupled from the oil correlation on Fed week and then REALLY decoupled as stronger ...

Wed, October 21, 8:51 PM

Ultimately Flat After Options-Driven Volatility - Wed, October 21, 8:51 PM

MBS Recap Ultimately Flat After Options-Driven Volatility MBS Recap Matthew Graham...

Wed, October 21, 6:57 PM

Additional Negative Reprice Risk - Wed, October 21, 6:57 PM

After leveling off earlier, selling is resuming now with 10yr yields up a quick 2.6bps at 5.137 and MBS now down more than a quarter point from many lenders' rate sheet print times. Nega...

Wed, October 21, 3:03 PM

MBS Down More Than an Eighth From Highs - Wed, October 21, 3:03 PM

MBS are still technically up 1 tick (.03) on the day, but they're down 5 ticks (.16) from the AM highs. Unfortunately, those highs coincided with many early lenders' rate sheet print times. As su...

Wed, October 21, 2:21 PM

Waiting For Whatever's Next - Wed, October 21, 2:21 PM

We find ourselves in a bit of a lull in the bond market this week, and we don't object! Yields aren't screaming back up toward recent highs. Nor are they extending last week's swift rally. Both w...

Tue, October 20, 8:37 PM

Tech Concerns Keeping Bonds in The Game - Tue, October 20, 8:37 PM

MBS Recap Tech Concerns Keeping Bonds in The Game MBS Recap Matthew Graham | 4:37 ...

Tue, October 20, 4:01 PM

MBS More Than an Eighth Off Highs - Tue, October 20, 4:01 PM

Treasuries were at their best levels of the day at 10:30am ET, but are now at their worst levels with 10yr yields still down 1.3bps at 5.122. MBS aren't yet back to the AM lows, but are off th...

Tue, October 20, 1:39 PM

Slightly Stronger Start - Tue, October 20, 1:39 PM

The bond market continues to decide who it wants to be in Q4, 2026--the harbinger of inflation concerns, debt issuance and economic growth or a safe haven for cash being freed up by AI capex dele...

Mon, October 19, 8:41 PM

What's Up With Monday's Weakness? - Mon, October 19, 8:41 PM

MBS Recap What's Up With Monday's Weakness? MBS Recap Matthew Graham | 4:40 PM ...

Mon, October 19, 4:41 PM

Reprice Risk Increasing Slightly - Mon, October 19, 4:41 PM

Negative reprice risk is now a consideration for most lenders and not just the jumpier "early crowd." MBS are down 10 tick (.31) on the day and at least 5 ticks (.16) for almost any lend...

Mon, October 19, 2:53 PM

MBS Down Over an Eight From Highs - Mon, October 19, 2:53 PM

Bonds have been trending steadily weaker this morning. 10yr yields are up almost 5bps to 5.128 and MBS are down a quarter point on the day and just over an eighth from highs. Because the highs...

Mon, October 19, 1:57 PM

Light Calendar Leaves Tech Concerns in Focus - Mon, October 19, 1:57 PM

Last week's most notable development was a flight to safety in the bond market precipitated by concerns about a shift in tech sector sentiment. The shift in question was mainly driven by Coreweav...

Fri, October 16, 7:46 PM

Could Have Been Better. Could Have Been Worse - Fri, October 16, 7:46 PM

MBS Recap Could Have Been Better. Could Have Been Worse MBS Recap Matthew Graham |...

Fri, October 16, 4:52 PM

More Reprice Risk Now - Fri, October 16, 4:52 PM

Selling continued after the last alert. Losses are driven by a big surge in oil prices. We're not seeing a compelling reason for that yet other than unconfirmed reports of some pipeline attack. ...

Fri, October 16, 4:22 PM

Down Over an Eighth From Highs - Fri, October 16, 4:22 PM

This is only a reprice alert for rate sheets that came out after 10am ET. Lenders who priced before then aren't seeing lower prices yet. Those who repriced for the better or priced ...

Fri, October 16, 2:06 PM

Bonds Still Capable of Selling - Fri, October 16, 2:06 PM

The past two days saw a unique confluence of factors that led to a precipitous, unexpected, and fairly large rally in the bond market. The easiest scapegoat is the general notion of fear surround...

Thu, October 15, 8:07 PM

Exciting Times, But Don't Get Too Excited - Thu, October 15, 8:07 PM

MBS Recap Exciting Times, But Don't Get Too Excited MBS Recap Matthew Graham | 4:0...

Thu, October 15, 3:29 PM

Still Much Stronger, But Down Over a Quarter Point From Highs - Thu, October 15, 3:29 PM

This is a heads-up for those of you with strong, initial rate sheets from lenders who are typically quick to reprice. MBS are now down more than a quarter point from early rate sheet print times....

Thu, October 15, 1:42 PM

What's Up With The Huge Paradoxical Rally?! - Thu, October 15, 1:42 PM

Core PPI was up 0.7 vs 0.3 forecast this morning. That's something that would normally send yields much higher. But everything is different this morning. Bonds rallied sharply in the overnight se...

Wed, October 14, 1:48 PM

CPI Puts a Floor Under Recent Rate Rally - Wed, October 14, 1:48 PM

Unrounded core CPI came in at 0.335, which nearly rounds to 0.4% versus an expectations of 0.2%. This is a big surprise when it comes to inflation data, and it matters more at the moment gi...

Wed, October 14, 12:35 PM

Selling Off After Hotter CPI - Wed, October 14, 12:35 PM

Core CPI 0.335% vs 0.2 f'cast Headline CPI 0.6 vs 0.6 f'cast Not only was core CPI above forecast, but the unrounded number was pretty close to being rounded to 0.4...

Tue, October 13, 6:53 PM

Light Volatility and Modest Gains Ahead of CPI - Tue, October 13, 6:53 PM

MBS Recap Light Volatility and Modest Gains Ahead of CPI MBS Recap Matthew Graham ...

Tue, October 13, 1:57 PM

Stronger Start. It's Complicated - Tue, October 13, 1:57 PM

Tuesday morning joins a fairly long list of trading days where overnight bond market movement cannot be cleanly connected to news headlines or econ data. With yields having recently pushed up to ...

Fri, October 9, 8:38 PM

Another Nice Round Trip For Bonds--Especially MBS - Fri, October 9, 8:38 PM

MBS Recap Another Nice Round Trip For Bonds--Especially MBS MBS Recap Matthew Grah...

Fri, October 9, 4:56 PM

MBS Update:

Decent Little Recovery - Fri, October 9, 4:56 PM

We won't assume bonds are completely out of the woods today, but we've seen enough strength at this point to avoid panic. The last alert mentioned bonds were already possibly starting to...

Fri, October 9, 3:16 PM

MBS Down an Eighth From Some Lenders' Rate Sheet Times - Fri, October 9, 3:16 PM

More of a heads-up alert than a dire warning. Bonds have been selling slowly and steadily this morning. Just now, MBS hit levels that are an eighth of a point below some lenders' rate sheet pr...

Fri, October 9, 1:50 PM

Slightly Weaker Start. Keep 3-Day Weekend in Mind - Fri, October 9, 1:50 PM

After yesterday's nice comeback, here's how we're thinking about today. Fridays before 3-day weekends: frequently see a move to the sidelines among certain investors. Traders who were tacti...

Thu, October 8, 8:16 PM

Yields "Plummet" to Best Level In... - Thu, October 8, 8:16 PM

MBS Recap Yields "Plummet" to Best Level In... MBS Recap Matthew Graham | 4:16 PM ...

Thu, October 8, 1:36 PM

It's Time to Play "Name That Line" - Thu, October 8, 1:36 PM

Bonds were initially moderately weaker this morning morning in a move that followed oil prices and hawkish Fed comments. Chris Waller said more hikes were needed due to a strong economy, persis...

Wed, October 7, 8:56 PM

Full Recovery! - Wed, October 7, 8:56 PM

MBS Recap Full Recovery! MBS Recap Matthew Graham | 4:56 PM Full Recov...

Wed, October 7, 5:20 PM

MBS Update:

Back Into Positive Territory After 10yr Auction - Wed, October 7, 5:20 PM

Demand was solid for the 10yr auction, which is typical on days with big yield spikes to long-term highs. 10s had already recovered more than half of today's losses as retail buyers flooded ETFs ...

Wed, October 7, 2:07 PM

No Surprise: It Was a Trap - Wed, October 7, 2:07 PM

If there's been a safe bet to make on isolated rally days over the past 2 months, it's that they'll be soon followed by a return to the prevailing trend toward higher rates. Today fills that role...

Tue, October 6, 8:02 PM