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Stronger Start Thanks to Europe and ADP - Today, 1:45 PM

Bonds rallied steadily overnight with more of the gains aligning with a data-driven bond rally in Europe. The overnight move brought 10yr yields roughly 2bps lower from yesterday's close. A...

Tue, 9:25 PM

Flat Ending After Early Head Fake - Tue, 9:25 PM

MBS Recap Ending Near Unchanged Levels After Early Head Fake MBS Recap Matthew Gra...

Tue, 4:14 PM

Weakest Levels and Some Reprice Risk - Tue, 4:14 PM

Bonds have been selling a bit quicker in the past hour as Trump talks about increased defense spending (Treasury issuance implications). 10yr yields are still in the range, but up 2.7bps at 4....

Tue, 2:54 PM

Volume is Back. Still Waiting on Volatility - Tue, 2:54 PM

A range trading theme has dominated the bond market since the most recent high yield on December 10th and the most recent low the following day. 100% of trading since then has fallen inside those...

Mon, 9:19 PM

Bonds Improve Back to Pre-Holiday Levels - Mon, 9:19 PM

MBS Recap Bonds Improve Back to Pre-Holiday Levels MBS Recap Matthew Graham | 4:18...

Mon, 3:20 PM

Bonds Are Back in The Office - Mon, 3:20 PM

By 10am ET, today's trading volume has already surpassed that seen on December 23rd and 26th (both full trading days)--proof positive that the market is shifting out of holiday mode. Over the pas...

Fri, January 2, 8:52 PM

Modest Incidental Weakness - Fri, January 2, 8:52 PM

MBS Recap Modest Incidental Weakness MBS Recap Matthew Graham | 3:51 PM ...

Fri, January 2, 6:41 PM

Negative Reprice Risk Increasing - Fri, January 2, 6:41 PM

MBS are now down 2 ticks (.06) on the day and 5 ticks (.16) from many lenders' rate sheet print times. Jumpier lenders could actively be considering negative reprices. The average len...

Fri, January 2, 4:04 PM

Down an Eighth From AM Highs - Fri, January 2, 4:04 PM

Bonds have been losing ground slowly and steadily so far this morning and although we're just barely weaker on the day, MBS are flirting with an eighth of a point of weakness compared to the AM h...

Fri, January 2, 3:47 PM

Monitoring For Misbehavior - Fri, January 2, 3:47 PM

Friday is merely a day to be watched in case it misbehaves. The econ calendar is essentially empty (just S&P manufacturing PMI), overnight volatility was minimal, and bonds are fairly close t...

Wed, December 31, 6:24 PM

Token Year-End Volatility - Wed, December 31, 6:24 PM

MBS Recap Token Year-End Volatility MBS Recap Matthew Graham | 1:23 PM ...

Wed, December 31, 6:09 PM

Quick Selling Pressure At Year-End Trading Cut-Off - Wed, December 31, 6:09 PM

MBS are down a quick eighth of a point from the most recent highs. Unless a lender repriced for the better at those highs, negative reprice risk is minimal and, indeed, not at all justified...

Wed, December 31, 1:56 PM

A Bit of Actual Data-Driven Selling Thanks to Jobless Claims and Wonky Seasonal Adjustments - Wed, December 31, 1:56 PM

Human traders may be extremely underrepresented on today's half-day trading session, but the robots/algos know what to do with a sub-200k Jobless Claims print. Robots are also not smart eno...

Tue, December 30, 8:23 PM

Modest Recovery From Morning Weakness - Tue, December 30, 8:23 PM

MBS Recap Modest Recovery From Morning Weakness MBS Recap Matthew Graham | 3:22 PM...

Tue, December 30, 3:58 PM

Meaningless Year-End Volatility - Tue, December 30, 3:58 PM

If we turn up the magnification on our market-watching microscopes, it may seem like something important happened in the bond market overnight. 10yr yields were up by more than 3bps at one point ...

Mon, December 29, 9:26 PM

Uneventful And Slightly Stronger - Mon, December 29, 9:26 PM

MBS Recap Uneventful And Slightly Stronger MBS Recap Matthew Graham | 4:25 PM ...

Mon, December 29, 3:26 PM

Mostly Sideways Despite Some Help From Europe - Mon, December 29, 3:26 PM

In addition to this week's holiday closure (early close Wednesday, fully closed Thursday), the econ calendar is also lacking in terms of potential sources of volatility. A majority of ...

Fri, December 26, 8:17 PM

Bonds End Unchanged After Another Quiet Session - Fri, December 26, 8:17 PM

MBS Recap Bonds End Unchanged After Another Quiet Session MBS Recap Matthew Graham...

Fri, December 26, 5:31 PM

MBS Down an Eighth From Highs - Fri, December 26, 5:31 PM

This is more of a heads-up than a high-urgency reprice alert. If you were going to lock or float today, nothing that's happening right now should change your mind. But the "lock" crowd has a bit ...

Fri, December 26, 3:57 PM

Technically Open, But Unofficially Still a Holiday Trading Session - Fri, December 26, 3:57 PM

Although the bond market is technically open today, it might as well not be. Late year holidays (Thanksgiving, X-mas, New Year) depress volume and liquidity more than any others. Today is neith...

Wed, December 24, 6:18 PM

Decent Gains With Some Help From 7yr Auction - Wed, December 24, 6:18 PM

MBS Recap Decent Gains With Some Help From 7yr Auction MBS Recap Matthew Graham | ...

Wed, December 24, 2:26 PM

Bonds Are Open... Sort Of - Wed, December 24, 2:26 PM

While many government employees have the day off today and Friday, these are not new, official Federal Holidays. As such, the bond market is open on the same schedule as always. Incidentally, tha...

Tue, December 23, 9:43 PM

Stunning Display of Holiday Trading Weirdness - Tue, December 23, 9:43 PM

MBS Recap Stunning Display of Holiday Trading Weirdness MBS Recap Matthew Graham |...

Tue, December 23, 2:54 PM

GDP Reaction a Prime Example of Holiday Distortion - Tue, December 23, 2:54 PM

We've spent the past several days reiterating and lamenting the onset of the holiday trading doldrums--a time of year that sees vastly lower volumes/ liquidity /participation, and thus runs the r...

Tue, December 23, 1:35 PM

Losing Ground After AM Data - Tue, December 23, 1:35 PM

ADP Employment Change Weekly 11.5K vs -- f'cast, 16.25K prev Core CapEx (Oct) 0.5% vs -- f'cast, 0.9% prev Core PCE Prices QoQQ3 2.90% vs 2.9% f'cast, 2.6% prev ...

Mon, December 22, 8:57 PM

Range-Bound Cruise Control, PM Edition - Mon, December 22, 8:57 PM

MBS Recap Range-Bound Cruise Control, PM Edition MBS Recap Matthew Graham | 3:57 P...

Mon, December 22, 3:34 PM

Range-Bound Cruise Control - Mon, December 22, 3:34 PM

2025 is effectively over when it comes to meaningful shifts in the bond market. The coming days will be so heavily-affected by light volume/ liquidity that any apparently significant shifts woul...

Fri, December 19, 9:32 PM

Bond Market in Holiday Mode - Fri, December 19, 9:32 PM

MBS Recap Bond Market in Holiday Mode MBS Recap Matthew Graham | 4:32 PM ...

Fri, December 19, 3:11 PM

Slightly Weaker. No, It's Not Japan - Fri, December 19, 3:11 PM

There was a fair amount of momentum among financial news sources regarding the potential significance of last night's Bank of Japan (BOJ) announcement to the U.S. bond market. While it was clearl...

Thu, December 18, 9:53 PM

Limited Follow-Through After Shockingly Big Miss - Thu, December 18, 9:53 PM

MBS Recap Limited Follow-Through After Shockingly Big Miss MBS Recap Matthew Graha...

Thu, December 18, 1:47 PM

Big Drop in Annual CPI, But Only a Cautious Rally So Far - Thu, December 18, 1:47 PM

Great news for bonds on the inflation front this morning: Core annual inflation came in at 2.6% compared to a 3.0% forecast and 3.0% last time. It's the lowest reading of the cycle and the ...

Wed, December 17, 9:17 PM

Slightly More Focus Than Normal on Thursday's CPI - Wed, December 17, 9:17 PM

MBS Recap Slightly More Focus Than Normal on Thursday's CPI MBS Recap Matthew Grah...

Wed, December 17, 4:59 PM

MBS Nearly an Eighth Off Best Levels - Wed, December 17, 4:59 PM

Bonds staged a decent recovery heading into the 11am hour, but they've been selling somewhat steadily since then. While the selling seems to have leveled off for now, it leaves 5.0 MBS teet...

Wed, December 17, 3:35 PM

Quiet Calendar Ahead of Thursday's CPI - Wed, December 17, 3:35 PM

Wednesday is largely a placeholder as 2025's relevant trading days evaporate. Apart from the year-end influences on the 29th-31st, Thursday's CPI arguably represents the last opportunity to trade...

Tue, December 16, 7:42 PM

Unemployment Not High Enough For a Full-Fledged Rally - Tue, December 16, 7:42 PM

MBS Recap Unemployment Not High Enough For a Full-Fledged Rally MBS Recap Matthew ...

Tue, December 16, 2:04 PM

Frustratingly Flat After Deceptively Friendly Jobs Report - Tue, December 16, 2:04 PM

If there was one metric in this morning's data that should be helping the bond market, it's the uptick in the unemployment rate from 4.4% in September to 4.6% in November (a new cycle high). This...

Tue, December 16, 1:34 PM

First Move is Stronger After Jobs Report - Tue, December 16, 1:34 PM

Non Farm Payrolls (Oct) -105 vs -- f'cast, 119K prev Non Farm Payrolls (Nov) 64K vs 50K f'cast, -- prev Participation Rate (Nov) 62.5% vs -- f'cast, 62.4% prev ...

Mon, December 15, 8:20 PM

Fairly Calm Monday. Jobs Report on Deck - Mon, December 15, 8:20 PM

MBS Recap Fairly Calm Monday. Jobs Report on Deck MBS Recap Matthew Graham | 3:20 ...

Mon, December 15, 4:42 PM

MBS Down an Eighth From Highs - Mon, December 15, 4:42 PM

Bonds have been selling fairly steadily since 10am with 10yr yields now down less than half a bp at 4.176 and MBS up only 1 tick (.03) on the day. 5.0 MBS coupons are down an eighth of a po...

Mon, December 15, 3:00 PM

Welcoming Back Timelier BLS Data - Mon, December 15, 3:00 PM

The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) is responsible for the two most important economic reports to the bond market: The Employment Situation (aka jobs report or NFP) and The Consumer Price Index ...

Fri, December 12, 2:41 PM

Choose Your Own Market Movement Adventure. - Fri, December 12, 2:41 PM

There's a noticeable divergence between long and short term bonds since the Fed announcement, and it's becoming more pronounced today. We can consider a few different reasons with the most ...

Thu, December 11, 9:11 PM

Two-Way Trading But Not Much Day-Over-Day Movement - Thu, December 11, 9:11 PM

MBS Recap Two-Way Trading But Not Much Day-Over-Day Movement MBS Recap Matthew Gra...

Thu, December 11, 7:26 PM

Down More Than an Eighth From Highs - Thu, December 11, 7:26 PM

MBS are still slightly stronger on the day but now down 6 ticks (.19) from the AM price plateau. This is definitely in the range of potential reprice risk scenarios.

Thu, December 11, 3:22 PM

Follow-Through Rally. What's Up With Big Swings in Jobless Claims? - Thu, December 11, 3:22 PM

Bonds are adding moderate to yesterday's post-Fed gains. Most of today's rally has followed this morning's jobless claims data, but we wouldn't necessarily give it all the credit. This is a trick...

Wed, December 10, 9:41 PM

Powell Avoided Throwing Cold Water on Rate Outlook. Bonds Approved - Wed, December 10, 9:41 PM

MBS Recap Powell Avoided Throwing Cold Water on Rate Outlook. Bonds Approved MBS Recap &...

Wed, December 10, 8:09 PM

Back up to Best Levels - Wed, December 10, 8:09 PM

Bonds have reversed the initial press conference weakness and are now at their best levels of the day with MBS up 3/8ths and 10yr down 4.1bps at 4.145.

Wed, December 10, 7:47 PM

Treasuries Turning Unchanged on Powell Comments - Wed, December 10, 7:47 PM

The offending newswire: Fed's Powell: Fed well-positioned to wait to see how the economy evolves The bond market would rather hear a stronger leaning in the direction of another cut i...

Wed, December 10, 7:04 PM