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Down Over an Eighth From Rate Sheet Print Times - Fri, September 11, 4:01 PM

Bonds have been slowly losing ground after this morning's rally and while MBS are still up an eighth on the day, they're now down more than an eighth from most lenders' rate sheet print times. So...

Fri, September 11, 1:43 PM

Paradoxical Rally in Bonds Thanks to Higher Fed Hike Odds - Fri, September 11, 1:43 PM

We've been saying for a while that the longer end of the bond market really wants to see the Fed get serious about fighting inflation. This is why yields spiked on July 29th when the Fed held rat...

Fri, September 11, 12:44 PM

MBS Update:

Back Into Positive Territory - Fri, September 11, 12:44 PM

The initial selling was short-lived and 10yr yields are back into positive territory, down 1.9bps at 4.945. MBS are up 1 tick (.03). WHY?! This is exactly the dynamic we've been hoping for....

Fri, September 11, 12:32 PM

More Selling After CPI Comes in Slightly Hot - Fri, September 11, 12:32 PM

m/m CORE CPI (Aug) 0.3% vs 0.2% f'cast, 0.2% prev m/m Headline CPI (Aug) 0.4% vs 0.4% f'cast, 0.1% prev y/y CORE CPI (Aug) 2.4% vs 2.4% f'cast, 2.5% prev ...

Thu, September 10, 8:38 PM

Ugly Snowball Selling Thanks to Oil and Inflation Data - Thu, September 10, 8:38 PM

MBS Recap Ugly Snowball Selling Thanks to Oil and Inflation Data MBS Recap Matthew...

Thu, September 10, 7:30 PM

Negative Reprice Risk Increasing - Thu, September 10, 7:30 PM

This adds emphasis to the previous alert. MBS are down another eighth of a point since then. We've already seen quite a few negative reprices, but the additional weakness makes it more likely, ev...

Thu, September 10, 5:35 PM

Heads-Up: Down More Than an Eighth From AM Highs - Thu, September 10, 5:35 PM

Compared to the MBS price highs seen after 9am ET this morning, we're currently down 6 ticks or 0.19. This would normally be more than enough to see a few negative reprices, but there ar...

Thu, September 10, 1:18 PM

Sharply Weaker Again. Half Oil. Half PPI - Thu, September 10, 1:18 PM

It's been a rough couple of days for the bond market. Yesterday, it was Bessent and the reaction to the Treasury buyback announcement. Today it is an overnight surge in oil prices and a lackluste...

Wed, September 9, 7:52 PM

Bonds to Bessent: Challenge Accepted - Wed, September 9, 7:52 PM

MBS Recap Bonds to Bessent: Challenge Accepted MBS Recap Matthew Graham | 3:51 PM ...

Wed, September 9, 3:19 PM

One More For Emphasis: Reprices Are Now Highly Likely - Wed, September 9, 3:19 PM

MBS are down another eighth of a point since the last alert, nearly 3/8ths in total, and at least 6 ticks (.19) from the lowest levels of the morning before the Treasury announcement. That makes ...

Wed, September 9, 3:08 PM

Weakest Levels After Treasury Announcement - Wed, September 9, 3:08 PM

Treasury announced a liquidity buyback operation of $6bln in the 10-30yr sector just now. While it's higher than the initially-expected $4 bln, it's not as high as the market was expecting afte...

Wed, September 9, 2:30 PM

Are Bonds Fighting Oil Implications Thanks to Buyback Hopes? - Wed, September 9, 2:30 PM

Not much is going on in terms of scheduled economic events until Thursday and Friday's PPI and CPI reports respectively. Those could be very big deals as some investors think the results will det...

Tue, September 8, 7:48 PM

Early Strength Gives Way to Steady Selling - Tue, September 8, 7:48 PM

MBS Recap Early Strength Gives Way to Steady Selling MBS Recap Matthew Graham | 3:...

Tue, September 8, 6:51 PM

Weakest Levels of The Day - Tue, September 8, 6:51 PM

MBS are now down 5 ticks (.16) on the day and many lenders are seeing 5 ticks of weakness from AM rate sheet print times. Several headlines have hit the wires this afternoon regarding escal...

Tue, September 8, 4:06 PM

Down an Eighth From Early Rate Sheet Print Times - Tue, September 8, 4:06 PM

Negative reprice risk is a bit tricky this morning as prices were moving fairly quickly lower during the early rate sheet window. Lenders who price as early as 9:30am are already seeing more than...

Tue, September 8, 1:46 PM

More Signs of Resilience But Still Tuned-In to Oil - Tue, September 8, 1:46 PM

To be sure, bonds are still very tuned-in to oil price movement with a high level of moment-to-moment correlation. That dynamic has seen yields trade both higher and lower so far today with most ...

Fri, September 4, 8:53 PM

Surprisingly Light Selling Given The Econ Data - Fri, September 4, 8:53 PM

MBS Recap Surprisingly Light Selling Given The Econ Data MBS Recap Matthew Graham ...

Fri, September 4, 12:42 PM

Bonds Only Moderately Higher After Balmy NFP - Fri, September 4, 12:42 PM

The jobs count surged higher (162k vs 56k f'cast) in this morning's jobs report. While such wild divergences will have the masses crying foul, and while this is a large beat, it's not the first t...

Thu, September 3, 8:24 PM

Still a Resilient Day Despite Afternoon Weakness - Thu, September 3, 8:24 PM

MBS Recap Still a Resilient Day Despite Afternoon Weakness MBS Recap Matthew Graha...

Thu, September 3, 7:40 PM

MBS Down an Eighth From Mid-Day Highs - Thu, September 3, 7:40 PM

Just a heads up for those who already had a positive reprice or who are planning on locking today: MBS are still an eighth of a point higher on the day, but down an eighth from the mid-day highs ...

Thu, September 3, 1:56 PM

Some Signs of Resilience - Thu, September 3, 1:56 PM

There were two separate positive developments for bonds this morning. The most obvious and actionable example was series of comments from Fed's Waller in which he basically said he wasn't interes...

Wed, September 2, 9:01 PM

Relatively Drama-Free Day - Wed, September 2, 9:01 PM

MBS Recap Relatively Drama-Free Day MBS Recap Matthew Graham | 5:00 PM ...

Wed, September 2, 2:32 PM

No News is Good News - Wed, September 2, 2:32 PM

Bonds were initially a hair weaker overnight but reversed course starting around 7am ET as oil prices fell. On the other hand, oil had already begun moving lower earlier in the overnight session ...

Tue, September 1, 8:50 PM

More War. More Selling - Tue, September 1, 8:50 PM

MBS Recap More War. More Selling MBS Recap Matthew Graham | 4:49 PM Mo...

Tue, September 1, 6:10 PM

Negative Reprice Risk Increasing - Tue, September 1, 6:10 PM

Negative reprices aren't necessarily guaranteed, but they're a slightly higher risk now as MBS just hit new lows for the day. Some lenders are seeing an eighth of a point of weakness versus morni...

Tue, September 1, 4:32 PM

MBS Down an Eighth From Highs After War Headlines - Tue, September 1, 4:32 PM

US AIR FORCE STRIKING IRANIAN TARGETS AROUND STRAIT OF HORMUZ: AXIOS Oil prices jumped on the headlines and bond yields followed. 10yr yields are back up to 4.79 from 4.75+ at this morning's low...

Tue, September 1, 1:45 PM

Selling Continues And It's Not Just Oil - Tue, September 1, 1:45 PM

Bond yields broke long term highs yesterday and are moving slightly higher again today. In both cases, we're NOT seeing the same level of intraday correlation with oil prices that we've almost al...

Mon, August 31, 9:00 PM

Technically a Breakout, But It Could Have Been Worse - Mon, August 31, 9:00 PM

MBS Recap Technically a Breakout, But It Could Have Been Worse MBS Recap Matthew G...

Mon, August 31, 2:13 PM

Month-End Trading Taking a Toll - Mon, August 31, 2:13 PM

Bonds were actually a hair stronger at the open, but quickly tanked just after 8am. The nature of said tankage is strongly suggestive of month-end positioning. While it's true oil prices are high...

Fri, August 28, 9:22 PM

Warsh Speech at Jackson Hole Prompts Heavy Selling - Fri, August 28, 9:22 PM

MBS Recap Warsh Speech at Jackson Hole Prompts Heavy Selling MBS Recap Matthew Gra...

Fri, August 28, 3:43 PM

Negative Reprice Risk Increasing - Fri, August 28, 3:43 PM

MBS are now down a quarter point on the day and almost as much versus lender rate sheet print times. 10yr yields are up 4 bps at 4.71. Negative reprices are becoming more likely.

Fri, August 28, 2:12 PM

Bonds Selling After Warsh Speech - Fri, August 28, 2:12 PM

Warsh's speech is unequivocally hawkish at first glance and Fed Funds Futures are selling quickly. MBS are down a quick eighth of a point. Negative reprice risk could already be increasing.&...

Fri, August 28, 1:43 PM

Not The Payrolls You're Looking For - Fri, August 28, 1:43 PM

In an attempt to not force another "Warsh" or "Jackson Hole" headline (because it's a coin flip as to whether it will matter), the calendar offers up another event that is almost guaranteed not t...

Thu, August 27, 8:25 PM

Fairly Calm Despite Some Fuel Price Pressure; Warsh on Deck - Thu, August 27, 8:25 PM

MBS Recap Fairly Calm Despite Some Fuel Price Pressure; Warsh on Deck MBS Recap Ma...

Thu, August 27, 6:00 PM

Treasuries at Weakest Levels. MBS an Eighth Off Highs - Thu, August 27, 6:00 PM

Treasuries have been under some increased pressure in the last 15 minutes and yields are now at the highs of the day. MBS have been outperforming but have also lost ground fairly steadily since j...

Thu, August 27, 2:16 PM

Counting Down to Warsh - Thu, August 27, 2:16 PM

While it may end up being a complete non-event, the bond market is counting the hours until Friday's Warsh appearance at Jackson Hole. There's nothing else on the calendar this week with any seri...

Wed, August 26, 8:23 PM

Some Pros and Cons in Today's Weakness - Wed, August 26, 8:23 PM

MBS Recap Some Pros and Cons in Today's Weakness MBS Recap Matthew Graham | 4:23 P...

Wed, August 26, 5:35 PM

MBS Update:

Heads Up: Weakest Levels But 10yr Holding - Wed, August 26, 5:35 PM

There as a moment of volatility right after the 5yr Treasury auction, but both 5yr and 10yr Treasuries are holding in line with the AM highs. 5.5 MBS are another 1 tick (.03) lower than ...

Wed, August 26, 12:47 PM

Bonds Pouting After Higher PCE - Wed, August 26, 12:47 PM

To be fair, not all of the PCE data was higher than expected, but none of the top line numbers were lower than expected. Core PCE was on target (notably 0.246%, so it nearly rounded up to 0.3 vs ...

Tue, August 25, 8:33 PM

Bonds Rally on Peace Deal Hopes - Tue, August 25, 8:33 PM

MBS Recap Bonds Rally on Peace Deal Hopes MBS Recap Matthew Graham | 4:32 PM ...

Tue, August 25, 2:06 PM

Oil Down, Yields Down - Tue, August 25, 2:06 PM

No point in wasting time/words on analysis when cause and effect remains so simple. After news regarding potential progress is peace negotiations, an overnight drop in oil prices coincided perfec...

Mon, August 24, 8:56 PM

Tune Out The Noise (Part 2) - Mon, August 24, 8:56 PM

MBS Recap Tune Out The Noise (Part 2) MBS Recap Matthew Graham | 4:56 PM ...

Mon, August 24, 3:13 PM

Slightly Stronger Start Mostly Due to Oil. Treasury News Fails to Inspire (Again) - Mon, August 24, 3:13 PM

Once again, Treasury is out with news about bond buying plans with two officials saying the Treasury General Account (TGA) could be used to fund long-end buybacks. TGA is Treasury's bank account....

Fri, August 21, 7:36 PM

Incidental Weakness. Bigger Considerations on The Horizon - Fri, August 21, 7:36 PM

MBS Recap Incidental Weakness. Bigger Considerations on The Horizon MBS Recap Matt...

Fri, August 21, 5:52 PM

Slightly More Reprice Risk - Fri, August 21, 5:52 PM

Prices haven't changed much from the time of the first alert, but MBS have spent more time pushing the lows of the day. Treasuries are also suggesting a bit of extra weakness. 5.5 UMBS a...

Fri, August 21, 2:34 PM

MBS Down an Eighth - Fri, August 21, 2:34 PM

Bonds have been selling slowly and steadily for the past few hours despite the stronger start. UMBS 5.5 coupons just now ticked down an eighth of a point on the day. Incidentally, this is also an...

Fri, August 21, 1:29 PM

Summertime Data-Free Friday Mystery Box - Fri, August 21, 1:29 PM

Bonds were a hair stronger overnight and are now a hair weaker at 9:15am ET. They may flip back and forth a few more times before the close. Ultimately, data-free summertime Fridays are fairly ra...

Thu, August 20, 9:08 PM