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Heavy Selling After Hotter Jobs Report - Fri, June 5, 12:32 PM

Non Farm Payrolls (May) 172K vs 85K f'cast, 115K prev Participation Rate (May) 61.8% vs -- f'cast, 61.8% prev Unemployment rate mm (May) 4.3% vs 4.3% f'cast, 4.3%...

Thu, June 4, 8:12 PM

Modest Gains Maintained After Intraday Slippage - Thu, June 4, 8:12 PM

MBS Recap Modest Gains Maintained After Intraday Slippage MBS Recap Matthew Graham...

Thu, June 4, 1:14 PM

Losses Erased After Another Peace Teaser - Thu, June 4, 1:14 PM

The following newswire hit about an hour before the open: TRUMP: US IN THE MIDDLE OF FINAL NEGOTIATIONS TO END IRAN WAR. Bond yields and oil prices had already fallen modestly up to th...

Wed, June 3, 7:47 PM

Minimal Change After Overnight Volatility - Wed, June 3, 7:47 PM

MBS Recap Minimal Change After Overnight Volatility MBS Recap Matthew Graham | 3:4...

Wed, June 3, 3:45 PM

Down More Than an Eighth From Highs - Wed, June 3, 3:45 PM

MBS are now down almost 3/8ths of a point on the day and just over an eighth from the most recent high around 10:30am. Lenders who priced at that time (or shortly thereafter) could be considering...

Wed, June 3, 1:13 PM

Weaker Start on Renewed Bombing, But Still In The Range - Wed, June 3, 1:13 PM

Iran launched missiles at several U.S. allies yesterday afternoon and oil prices responded accordingly with a move back up to May 22nd levels. Treasury yields followed, but have generally been st...

Tue, June 2, 8:59 PM

Uncommonly Uneventful Day - Tue, June 2, 8:59 PM

MBS Recap Uncommonly Uneventful Day MBS Recap Matthew Graham | 4:58 PM ...

Tue, June 2, 2:49 PM

Temporary Jolt From JOLTS as War Focus Remains - Tue, June 2, 2:49 PM

We saw big ticket econ data move the needle a bit last week and have thus been prepared for this week's big ticket reports to have a similar chance to cause volatility. For a few moments this mor...

Tue, June 2, 2:04 PM

Losing Ground After Job Openings Data - Tue, June 2, 2:04 PM

JOLTs Job Quits (Apr) 2.977M vs -- f'cast, 3.171M prev USA JOLTS Job Openings (Apr) 7.618M vs 6.88M f'cast, 6.866M prev While fewer people quit their jobs in April ...

Mon, June 1, 7:57 PM

Yields End Higher Despite Some Mid-Day Solace - Mon, June 1, 7:57 PM

MBS Recap Yields End Higher Despite Some Mid-Day Solace MBS Recap Matthew Graham |...

Mon, June 1, 1:36 PM

Sharply Weaker on War-Related Headlines - Mon, June 1, 1:36 PM

Full coverage of reasons is in the AM commentary . MBS are now down 3/8ths of a point on the day and 10 ticks (.31) from intraday highs. 10s are up 6bps at 4.497.

Mon, June 1, 1:35 PM

Weaker Start as War News Cycle Shifts - Mon, June 1, 1:35 PM

Last week's focus for war-related headlines involved various attempts to hone in on just how close we were to a confirmed preliminary peace deal. The results were predictable with bonds moving to...

Fri, May 29, 8:02 PM

Markets Were Skeptical of Mid-Day Peace Headlines and That Was a Good Instinct - Fri, May 29, 8:02 PM

MBS Recap Markets Were Skeptical of Mid-Day Peace Headlines and That Was a Good Instinct MBS Recap ...

Fri, May 29, 2:03 PM

Flat Overnight And Slow Start - Fri, May 29, 2:03 PM

Bonds were flat overnight for a change, with just a bit of 2-way volatility but no notable directional movement. Without any new or interesting war-related headlines, what else can we even discus...

Thu, May 28, 7:46 PM

Spoiler Alert: Yes, It Was War Headlines - Thu, May 28, 7:46 PM

MBS Recap Spoiler Alert: Yes, It Was War Headlines MBS Recap Matthew Graham | 3:45...

Thu, May 28, 2:20 PM

MBS Update:

Guess What. Another War Headline. Another Volatile Response - Thu, May 28, 2:20 PM

Axios reporting a rehashed version of yesterday's "memo" news, which was a rehash of Monday's memo news, etc etc. But it sounds like a more forceful announcement of a completed deal. The...

Thu, May 28, 1:16 PM

Not The Supertanker Bonds Were Looking For... But We'll Take It - Thu, May 28, 1:16 PM

There's a supertanker load of data this morning with some apparently interesting results, but the market remains focused primarily on supertankers being able to transport oil. Those prospects wer...

Wed, May 27, 8:03 PM

In a Shocking Twist, Bonds Relive Another Groundhog Day - Wed, May 27, 8:03 PM

MBS Recap In a Shocking Twist, Bonds Relive Another Groundhog Day MBS Recap Matthe...

Wed, May 27, 4:08 PM

Weakest Levels - Wed, May 27, 4:08 PM

MBS are now unchanged on the day and down an eighth of a point from some lenders' rate sheet print times. This is more of a heads-up that the jumpiest lenders could be close to conside...

Wed, May 27, 12:50 PM

Stronger Start on Yet Another Peace Deal Headline - Wed, May 27, 12:50 PM

It seems that we've seen slight variations on the same peace deal news for the past several days. That's probably because there is an actual peace deal that's probably near the actual finish line...

Tue, May 26, 7:32 PM

Good Reminder That The Market Gets to Decide What Matters - Tue, May 26, 7:32 PM

MBS Recap Good Reminder That The Market Gets to Decide What Matters MBS Recap Matt...

Tue, May 26, 3:28 PM

Down More Than an Eighth From Highs - Tue, May 26, 3:28 PM

Bonds have been losing ground slowly this morning after opening at sharply stronger levels. MBS are down 5 ticks (.16) from the highs of the morning and some lenders are seeing an eighth of a poi...

Tue, May 26, 1:35 PM

Much Stronger Start as Peace Deal Expectations Improve - Tue, May 26, 1:35 PM

On Sunday evening, the NYT ran a story that the U.S. and Iran had agreed in principle to end the war and reopen the Strait of Hormuz. The key distinction versus previous rumors/reports is that th...

Fri, May 22, 7:05 PM

Bonds Scratch Out a Win Amid Dueling Headlines - Fri, May 22, 7:05 PM

MBS Recap Bonds Scratch Out a Win Amid Dueling Headlines MBS Recap Matthew Graham ...

Fri, May 22, 2:09 PM

Down More Than an Eighth From Highs - Fri, May 22, 2:09 PM

5.0 MBS coupons are down 7 ticks (.22) from 9:30am levels. Lenders who priced before 10am are seeing at least an eighth of a point of that weakness. Negative reprices are relatively rare in...

Fri, May 22, 12:59 PM

Abbreviated Friday Opening at Week's Best Levels - Fri, May 22, 12:59 PM

Bonds are starting the session at the best levels of the week with modest overnight gains getting a small boost from news that Pakistan's army chief (a central figure in mediating US/Iran pe...

Thu, May 21, 8:05 PM

Peace Deal Rumors Make For Mid-Day Reversal - Thu, May 21, 8:05 PM

MBS Recap Peace Deal Rumors Make For Mid-Day Reversal MBS Recap Matthew Graham | 4...

Thu, May 21, 1:19 PM

Bonds Turn Red Overnight on War Headlines - Thu, May 21, 1:19 PM

Bonds spent most of the overnight session moving sideways to slightly stronger, but everything changed at 6:20am. That's when news broke regarding a statement from Iran's Khamenei saying that Ura...

Wed, May 20, 8:19 PM

Full Reversal And Then Some - Wed, May 20, 8:19 PM

MBS Recap Full Reversal And Then Some MBS Recap Matthew Graham | 4:17 PM ...

Wed, May 20, 3:31 PM

MBS Update:

In Case You Missed It, This is Why Bonds Are Rallying - Wed, May 20, 3:31 PM

Pretty simple stuff: Around 10:15am: "The Pakistani army leader may visit Iran tomorrow to announce the final version of the agreement text - Al Hadath, citing Sources." IF THE PAK...

Wed, May 20, 2:24 PM

Bleeding Subsides For Now, Headlines Helping But Bonds Remain Cautious - Wed, May 20, 2:24 PM

Tuesday's massive wave of bond-specific weakness still has the analytical community scratching its collective head. Our contacts are either saying nothing or telling us they're just as perplexed....

Tue, May 19, 8:57 PM

Whales Making Waves in Treasury Futures - Tue, May 19, 8:57 PM

MBS Recap Whales Making Waves in Treasury Futures MBS Recap Matthew Graham | 4:56 ...

Tue, May 19, 3:55 PM

MBS Update:

Some Support and Some Reprice Risk (It's Weird) - Tue, May 19, 3:55 PM

We're sending this out as an "update" as opposed to an alert to acknowledge the supportive trading seen in the past hour. In other words, it looks like bonds may have found their footing for now....

Tue, May 19, 1:40 PM

Increasing Signs of Bond-Specific Panic - Tue, May 19, 1:40 PM

Ever since the initial 2 week ceasefire was announced in the Iran war, the bond market has adhered to trend channels that align with either de-escalation or re-escalation sentiment. Nothing too c...

Mon, May 18, 8:18 PM

Bombarded by Headlines, But Little-Changed - Mon, May 18, 8:18 PM

MBS Recap Bombarded by Headlines, But Little-Changed MBS Recap Matthew Graham | 4:...

Mon, May 18, 6:10 PM

Negative Reprices Becoming More Likely - Mon, May 18, 6:10 PM

MBS are now down 5 ticks (.16) on the day and more than a quarter point form some early lenders' rate sheet print times. Any lender who initially priced before 10:30am is increasingly likely to b...

Mon, May 18, 2:40 PM

MBS Down More Than an Eighth From Highs - Mon, May 18, 2:40 PM

5.0 MBS coupons are unchanged on the day after being up just over 5 ticks at the most recent high. Those highs correspond with some lenders' rate sheet print times. On some occasions, we've seen ...

Mon, May 18, 2:36 PM

Early Gains And Losses on Conflicting War Headlines - Mon, May 18, 2:36 PM

Bonds began the overnight session by drifting somewhat higher in yield. The 10yr hit 4.63 before recovering modestly just before domestic trading began. Yields were still slightly higher at 7:30a...

Fri, May 15, 9:12 PM

Bonds Continued Drifting Weaker Throughout The Day (10yr Hit 4.6%) - Fri, May 15, 9:12 PM

MBS Recap Bonds Continued Drifting Weaker Throughout The Day MBS Recap Matthew Gra...

Fri, May 15, 3:55 PM

Down More Than an Eighth vs 9:30am ET - Fri, May 15, 3:55 PM

MBS are now down just over 5/8ths of a point on the day. 5 ticks (.16) of that has been seen since 9:30am, which is an early part of the window for lender rate sheet print times. Most every le...

Fri, May 15, 1:19 PM

Highest Yields in a Year After Trump/Xi Summit - Fri, May 15, 1:19 PM

Far too many market participants were apparently hoping that some sort of positive news on the war would be somehow facilitated by the Trump/Xi summit over the past 2 days. But talks wrapped up i...

Thu, May 14, 8:22 PM

Rally Reverses, Leaving Bonds Weaker in The Afternoon - Thu, May 14, 8:22 PM

MBS Recap Rally Reverses, Leaving Bonds Weaker in The Afternoon MBS Recap Matthew ...

Thu, May 14, 7:49 PM

New Lows and Slightly More Reprice Risk - Thu, May 14, 7:49 PM

Negative reprice risk was fairly limited when MBS hit their lows earlier today. Prices are now down another 3 ticks (.09) since then and nearly a quarter point from most lenders' rate sheet print...

Thu, May 14, 6:26 PM

Down More Than an Eighth From Highs - Thu, May 14, 6:26 PM

This is more of a heads up than an emergent alert. MBS are still 1 tick (.03) higher on the day and the Treasury market suggest MBS selling may be a bit overdone, but 5.0 coupons are down 5-6 tic...

Thu, May 14, 1:46 PM

Stronger Start. Ho Hum Data - Thu, May 14, 1:46 PM

A recovery toward lower oil prices paved the way for the bond market to recover yesterday morning's weakness and the same theme continued in the overnight session. 8:30am econ data represented a ...

Wed, May 13, 7:38 PM

MBS Fully Recover After Initial Reaction to Inflation Data - Wed, May 13, 7:38 PM

MBS Recap MBS Fully Recover After Initial Reaction to Inflation Data MBS Recap Mat...

Wed, May 13, 3:32 PM

New Lows For MBS - Wed, May 13, 3:32 PM

Bonds made a full recovery by 9:45am but have been selling off since then. The timing suggests retail investors changing asset allocation after hotter PPI, but could also include another round of...

Wed, May 13, 2:21 PM