MBS and Treasury Markets Archive

Michael Levine

Senior Loan Officer

CrossCountry Mortgage

M: 914-391-1183

2900 Westchester Ave.
#202
Purchase NY 10577-____

License:

307827

Today, 8:26 PM

Solid Bond Rally For Debatable Reasons - Today, 8:26 PM

MBS Recap Solid Bond Rally For Debatable Reasons MBS Recap Matthew Graham | 4:25 P...

Today, 4:19 PM

Bigger Picture Starting to Look More Normal - Today, 4:19 PM

What's "normal" for the bond market? That depends how far back you want to look. Starting in late February, we had about a month of mostly sideways movement in a relatively narrow range as ...

Today, 12:48 PM

Overnight Gains and Uneventful Data - Today, 12:48 PM

Jobless Claims 222k vs 222k f'cast, 216k prev Continued Claims 1841k vs 1880k f'cast, 1878k prev Durable Goods 9.2 vs 2.0 f'cast, 0.9 prev Core Durable ...

Wed, 8:42 PM

Bonds Lose Almost All The Gains After Inflation Warnings in The Data - Wed, 8:42 PM

MBS Recap Bonds Lose Almost All The Gains After Inflation Warnings in The Data MBS Recap ...

Wed, 4:17 PM

Additional Negative Reprice Risk - Wed, 4:17 PM

This is an amplification of the previous alert as bonds continue to slide. MBS are still up a quarter point but down roughly 3/8ths from highs. Even the later pricing lenders are seei...

Wed, 2:34 PM

MBS Still up Big But Well Off Highs (Hit by PMI Price Data) - Wed, 2:34 PM

Bonds and stocks are both sharply stronger today thanks to overnight headlines regarding Fed Chair Powell and fresh headlines on lower tariffs. Bonds are having more of a mixed reaction to ...

Wed, 2:17 PM

What's Up With Today's Big Bond Rally?! - Wed, 2:17 PM

Two factors had been contributing more than others to drive bond yields higher as of yesterday. The broader, ongoing factor is/was the tariff/trade stand-off with China. Whether approached ...

Tue, 8:37 PM

Broadly Sideways Despite Intraday Volatility - Tue, 8:37 PM

MBS Recap Broadly Sideways Despite Intraday Volatility MBS Recap Matthew Graham | ...

Tue, 3:07 PM

Here We Are Again: No News is Good News - Tue, 3:07 PM

If there was an overriding theme last week, it was that the absence of new tariff drama helped the bond market recover some of the previous week's weakness. While it wasn't exactly tariff drama, ...

Mon, 9:28 PM

Unfortunate Market Movement For Unfortunate Reasons - Mon, 9:28 PM

MBS Recap Unfortunate Market Movement For Unfortunate Reasons MBS Recap Matthew Gr...

Mon, 5:44 PM

Negative Reprices Becoming More Likely - Mon, 5:44 PM

Bonds continue selling steadily and gradually with no major spikes or reactions to headlines/data. 10yr yields are up 7.7bps at 4.403, right in line with the highs of the day. MBS are do...

Mon, 4:35 PM

Down More Than an Eighth From Highs - Mon, 4:35 PM

Bonds had recovered from overnight weakness fairly well heading into the 10am hour with both MBS and Treasuries nearly hitting unchanged levels. Selling picked back up at 10:30am and UMBS 5.5 cou...

Mon, 2:38 PM

Drama Returns, But With Mixed Results For Bonds - Mon, 2:38 PM

Heading into last week, we expected to be waiting until after the holiday weekend to get a better sense of the prevailing tone in financial markets. If the week of April 7-11 represent tariff-dri...

Thu, April 17, 8:55 PM

Don't Sweat The Modest Weakness - Thu, April 17, 8:55 PM

MBS Recap Don't Sweat The Modest Weakness MBS Recap Matthew Graham | 4:47 PM ...

Thu, April 17, 4:32 PM

Weakest Levels Of The Day - Thu, April 17, 4:32 PM

This is more of a heads-up than an actual alert. MBS are now down to the weakest levels of the day with 5.5 coupons down exactly an eighth of a point (both on the day and versus many ...

Thu, April 17, 2:45 PM

Slow Start, Narrowest Range, Early Close - Thu, April 17, 2:45 PM

The market and market participants could use a break after everything endured over the past 2 weeks. This holiday-shortened week turned out to provide a timely opportunity. Economic data ha...

Wed, April 16, 7:48 PM

Bonds Reprise Familiar Role as a Safe Haven Amid Renewed Rout in Stocks - Wed, April 16, 7:48 PM

MBS Recap Bonds Reprise Familiar Role as a Safe Haven Amid Renewed Rout in Stocks MBS Recap ...

Wed, April 16, 3:35 PM

The Big Calm-Down Continues. Powell on Deck - Wed, April 16, 3:35 PM

What a difference a week makes. The present example has been entirely different than the previous example in terms of volatility and directional movement. To reiterate our overarching thesis, Apr...

Wed, April 16, 2:46 PM

Down an Eighth From Highs - Wed, April 16, 2:46 PM

Bonds have just barely been favoring a selling trend in what has otherwise been a mostly flat morning. MBS liquidity has been poor, potentially contributing to a bit more weakness than we other...

Wed, April 16, 12:40 PM

Unchanged Overnight. Minimal Reaction to Retail Sales So Far - Wed, April 16, 12:40 PM

Retail Sales 1.4 vs 1.3 f'cast, 0.2 prev Retail Sales Control Group 0.4 vs 0.6 f'cast, 1.3 prev Once again, bonds where sideways in the overnight session, de...

Tue, April 15, 8:39 PM

Absence Makes the Bonds Grow Stronger - Tue, April 15, 8:39 PM

MBS Recap Absence Makes the Bonds Grow Stronger MBS Recap Matthew Graham | 4:38 PM...

Tue, April 15, 7:56 PM

MBS Down Just Over an Eighth From Mid-Day Highs - Tue, April 15, 7:56 PM

This alert only really applies to lenders who issued positive reprices earlier today. Any other lender is only seeing a modest drop in prices from rate sheet print times--if any. 5.5 UMB...

Tue, April 15, 3:24 PM

Now For Something Completely Different: Stronger Start, Lower Volatility - Tue, April 15, 3:24 PM

In the context of the past two weeks, the past two days have been an anomaly. Not only have bond yields been moving lower, but they've done so in relatively lower volatility and without the same ...

Mon, April 14, 8:18 PM

Bonds Build on Overnight Gains After Another Tariff Change - Mon, April 14, 8:18 PM

MBS Recap Bonds Build on Overnight Gains After Another Tariff Change MBS Recap Mat...

Mon, April 14, 2:10 PM

Cautious Optimism on Electronic Tariff Exclusions - Mon, April 14, 2:10 PM

Friday afternoon's memorandum on tariff exclusions set the stage for stronger trading in stocks and bonds in the overnight session. Bonds rallied steadily in Asia/Europe and have continued to imp...

Fri, April 11, 9:03 PM

Rough Week For Bonds. No Help From Friendly Data - Fri, April 11, 9:03 PM

MBS Recap Rough Week For Bonds. No Help From Friendly Data MBS Recap Matthew Graha...

Fri, April 11, 4:38 PM

Big (Bad) Things Are Happening in Bonds - Fri, April 11, 4:38 PM

There have been some bad weeks for bonds here and there over the careers of most anyone who's alive to read these words, but unless your career began before 1981 (and unless something changes dra...

Fri, April 11, 1:16 PM

MBS Already Down a Quarter Point - Fri, April 11, 1:16 PM

The paradoxical post-PPI trade continues and MBS are now down just over a quarter point on the day. 10yr yields are up 5.8bps at 4.49. While this doesn't have reprice implications for to...

Fri, April 11, 12:38 PM

Huge Drop in PPI; Don't Expect Fireworks - Fri, April 11, 12:38 PM

Core MM PPI -0.1 vs +0.3 f'cast, 0.1 prev Core YY PPI 3.3 vs 3.6 f'cast, 3.4 prev Headline MM PPI -0.4 vs 0.2 f'cast, 0.1 prev Much like yesterday's ...

Thu, April 10, 9:08 PM

The Reasons May be Esoteric, But The Selling is Real - Thu, April 10, 9:08 PM

MBS Recap The Reasons May be Esoteric, But The Selling is Real MBS Recap Matthew G...

Thu, April 10, 7:24 PM

Negative Reprices Becoming Increasingly Likely - Thu, April 10, 7:24 PM

MBS are now down 14 ticks (.44) on the day and from many lenders' rate sheet print times. If you haven't seen a negative reprice yet, the odds are getting very high. 10yr yields ar...

Thu, April 10, 3:49 PM

CPI Finally Drops Big, Just in Time to be Irrelevant - Thu, April 10, 3:49 PM

It feels very odd to label a report like CPI as "irrelevant," and to be fair, traders were still paying some attention, but the trading response, in general, makes it clear that the current focus...

Thu, April 10, 3:44 PM

Negative Reprice Risk Increasing - Thu, April 10, 3:44 PM

MBS are at new lows, down almost a quarter point on the day and as much as a quarter point from some lenders' rate sheet print times. 10yr yields are at the highs of the day, up 0.4bps at 4...

Thu, April 10, 1:08 PM

Bonds Now Weaker Despite CPI Beat - Thu, April 10, 1:08 PM

In case the surprisingly lackluster reaction to the CPI data at 8:30am wasn't a clear enough sign that bonds are treating this data as a relic of a bygone era, now there's this. MBS are dow...

Thu, April 10, 12:34 PM

CPI Drops Sharply. Bonds Adding to Overnight Rally - Thu, April 10, 12:34 PM

Core MM CPI 0.1 vs 0.3 f'cast, 0.2 prev unrounded 0.057 Core YY CPI 2.7 vs 3.0 f'cast, 3.1 prev MM Headline CPI -0.1 vs 0.1 f'cast, 0.2 prev ...

Wed, April 9, 9:38 PM

Bonds Have a Lot On Their Minds (And The Mega Reversal After The Tariff Pause) - Wed, April 9, 9:38 PM

MBS Recap Bonds Have a Lot On Their Minds (And The Mega Reversal After The Tariff Pause) MBS Recap ...

Wed, April 9, 5:25 PM

More Volatility as 90 Day Tariff Pause Announced - Wed, April 9, 5:25 PM

09 Apr 2025 01:19:21 PM - TRUMP: RAISING CHINA TARIFF TO 125% 09 Apr 2025 01:19:29 PM - TRUMP:EFFECTIVE IMMEDIATELY 09 Apr 2025 01:20:01 PM - TRUMP: AUTHORIZED A 90 DAY PAUSE ON TARIFFS 09 Apr 20...

Wed, April 9, 5:11 PM

Moderate Friendly Bump on Strong 10yr Auction - Wed, April 9, 5:11 PM

Negative reprices could still be coming in due to previous losses, but the auction results have helped bonds find a ceiling in yields (or floor in prices) for now. The chief measurement of a T...

Wed, April 9, 3:40 PM

Losing Ground From AM Highs; Reprice Risk Varies Significantly - Wed, April 9, 3:40 PM

It will be an extremely atypical day as far as reprice risk is concerned. Several developments make the normal correlations less ironclad. Our best advise is to line up rate sheet pri...

Wed, April 9, 1:14 PM

Bonds Pummeled Overnight. It Won't Make Sense Unless You Watch The Video - Wed, April 9, 1:14 PM

MBS are down the better part of a point and 10yr yields are up 14+ bps at 4.44%. Another huge loss that leaves market watchers grasping for answers. Most of you are aware that MBS...

Tue, April 8, 9:37 PM

Heavy Losses as Bonds Brace For Tougher Times - Tue, April 8, 9:37 PM

MBS Recap Heavy Losses as Bonds Brace For Tougher Times MBS Recap Matthew Graham |...

Tue, April 8, 6:59 PM

Additional Negative Reprice Risk - Tue, April 8, 6:59 PM

MBS have continued selling and are now down more than a quarter point on the day and nearly 3/8ths of a point from the mid-day highs. Lenders who have not yet repriced for the worse are inc...

Tue, April 8, 6:03 PM

MBS Down a Quarter Point From Mid Day Highs - Tue, April 8, 6:03 PM

While some lenders are still repricing for the better in response to AM gains, other are at risk of negative reprices if their rates came out at 11am ET or later. 5.5 coupons are down rough...

Tue, April 8, 2:47 PM

Liberation Day Volatility Has Come and Gone - Tue, April 8, 2:47 PM

The past 2 days of selling in the bond market may seem dramatic, but they make solid sense in the bigger picture. Trump's April 2nd "Liberation Day" was a hotly anticipated flashpoint for financi...

Mon, April 7, 9:47 PM

Explaining Monday's Wild Ride in The Bond Market - Mon, April 7, 9:47 PM

MBS Recap Explaining Monday's Wild Ride in The Bond Market MBS Recap Matthew Graha...

Mon, April 7, 5:11 PM

New Lows; Ongoing Reprice Risk - Mon, April 7, 5:11 PM

MBS are down nearly half a point on the day now and more than a quarter point from most lenders' rate sheet print times. As such, negative reprices are more likely than not. 10yr yields ...

Mon, April 7, 4:02 PM

Bonds Getting Hit From Tariff Updates, Real or Otherwise - Mon, April 7, 4:02 PM

It's been an interesting Monday so far for the bond market (and stock market for that matter). Despite a big risk-off move (stocks and yields lower) to start the overnight session, markets grad...

Mon, April 7, 2:41 PM

Much of The Recent Weakness Erased as Headline Labeled "Fake News" - Mon, April 7, 2:41 PM

The ostensible Hassett headline that just sparked heavy selling in the bond market has now been outed as a twisting of Hassett's words in response to questions about previous headlines that cited...

Mon, April 7, 2:16 PM

Bonds Routed on "Tariff Pause" Headlines - Mon, April 7, 2:16 PM

HASSETT: TRUMP IS CONSIDERING A 90-DAY PAUSE IN TARIFFS FOR ALL COUNTRIES EXCEPT CHINA With so much of the recent rally built on the anticipated tariff fallout, it's no surprise to see heavy s...

Fri, April 4, 9:19 PM

Wild Round Trip Leaves MBS Weaker Despite Huge Initial Rally - Fri, April 4, 9:19 PM

MBS Recap Wild Round Trip Leaves MBS Weaker Despite Huge Initial Rally MBS Recap M...

Michael Levine

Senior Loan Officer

CrossCountry Mortgage

M: 914-391-1183

2900 Westchester Ave.
#202
Purchase NY 10577-____

License:

307827

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Reproduction or redistribution this newsletter, outside of the distribution services provided, is prohibited. Interest rate data provided in this newsletter are national averages. Rate/APR terms may differ. All information provided "as is" for informational purposes only.