MBS and Treasury Markets Archive

Lots of Fed Speakers, But The Focus is on China - Today, 3:04 PM

A glance at today's economic calendar quickly reveals that Fed speeches are the only game in town in terms of scheduled events. But what can the Fed say that we didn't already hear from Pow...

Thu, 8:51 PM

Surprisingly Big Sell Off Relative to The Inspiration - Thu, 8:51 PM

MBS Recap Surprisingly Big Sell Off Relative to The Inspiration MBS Recap Matthew ...

Thu, 5:58 PM

Negative Reprices Becoming Likely - Thu, 5:58 PM

MBS are now down 14 ticks (.44) and 10yr yields are up 10.3bps. Lenders are seeing at least a quarter point of weakness vs rate sheet print times. As such, negative reprices are becoming li...

Thu, 3:58 PM

More New Lows - Thu, 3:58 PM

Amid the US/UK trade deal press conference and Trump's touting of the stock market, stocks are ripping higher and bond yields are following (even if not "ripping"). 10s are now up 6bps a...

Thu, 3:00 PM

Slow Start, Two-Way Trading After Data - Thu, 3:00 PM

Bonds mostly lost ground in the overnight session, and then lost just a bit more ground after the 8:30am econ data. This consisted of Jobless Claims coming in slightly lower than forec...

Thu, 2:37 PM

MBS Down to New Lows - Thu, 2:37 PM

Bonds have been losing ground a bit more quickly in the past few minutes with 10yr yields up 5bps to new highs of 4.32%. MBS are down 6 ticks (.19) to new lows for the day. Due to the pr...

Wed, 8:34 PM

Just as Underwhelming as Expected - Wed, 8:34 PM

MBS Recap Just as Underwhelming as Expected MBS Recap Matthew Graham | 4:33 PM ...

Wed, 6:49 PM

Losing Some Ground on Powell's Latest Comment - Wed, 6:49 PM

It's hard to say exactly which comment did the trick, but it was probably this one: Fed's Powell: We won't make progress on goals this year if tariffs stay or this one (in response to w...

Wed, 6:04 PM

No Major Reaction to Fed Announcement Text - Wed, 6:04 PM

Fed added a line about net export swings affecting data Fed says uncertainty around outlook has increased further Fed says risks of higher unemployment and higher inflation have risen ...

Wed, 6:00 PM

Here's What Changed in The New Fed Announcement - Wed, 6:00 PM

Recent Although swings in net exports have affected the data, recent indicators suggest that economic activity has continued to expand at a solid pace. The unemployment rate has stabilized at a...

Wed, 3:04 PM

Not Expecting Fireworks From The Fed - Wed, 3:04 PM

Wednesday begins with bonds battling back from modest overnight weakness (now moving into modestly stronger territory), but not for any particular reason. End of year Fed Funds Rate expectations ...

Tue, 8:10 PM

10yr Auction to The Rescue - Tue, 8:10 PM

MBS Recap 10yr Auction to The Rescue MBS Recap Matthew Graham | 4:09 PM ...

Tue, 5:24 PM

Moving Into Positive Territory After 10yr Auction - Tue, 5:24 PM

10yr Treasury Auction 4.342 vs 4.354 expectations (1.2bps beat) Bid to cover: 2.60 vs 2.48 average Quick deep dive on Treasury auction info (more details in the primer ...

Tue, 2:37 PM

2-Way Trading, Slightly Weaker Start - Tue, 2:37 PM

Bonds have been on both sides of unchanged so far today. The overnight session began with slightly higher yields followed by a gradual rally. By 9am ET, bonds were modestly stronger on the ...

Mon, 8:29 PM

Selling Spree Continues, But Gently - Mon, 8:29 PM

MBS Recap Selling Spree Continues, But Gently MBS Recap Matthew Graham | 4:29 PM ...

Mon, 2:29 PM

Another ISM Report That Wasn't Weak Enough to Help Bonds - Mon, 2:29 PM

The ISM Services PMI is this morning's key data, and arguably, the most relevant economic report of the week. Last week's ISM Manufacturing data wasn't strong, but it wasn't nearly as weak as tra...

Mon, 2:05 PM

Losing Ground After ISM Data - Mon, 2:05 PM

ISM Services 51.6 vs 50.6 f'cast, 50.8 prev ISM Prices 65.1 vs 60.9 prev ISM Employment 49.0 vs 46.2 prev Whether it's the higher headline or th...

Mon, 1:02 PM

Slightly Weaker After Corporate Issuance Announcement - Mon, 1:02 PM

Bonds were flat to slightly stronger in the overnight session, but lost ground over the past half hour following the announcement of corporate bond offering from Apple. Past examples of s...

Fri, May 2, 8:17 PM

Data Dependence is Back, But Not in A Fun Way - Fri, May 2, 8:17 PM

MBS Recap Data Dependence is Back, But Not in A Fun Way MBS Recap Matthew Graham |...

Fri, May 2, 3:37 PM

Down More Than an Eighth from 10am Levels - Fri, May 2, 3:37 PM

10am is a common time of day for mortgage lenders to be releasing or preparing to release the first rate sheets of the day. As such, it's worth mentioning when MBS drop more than eighth of ...

Fri, May 2, 2:29 PM

Reasonably Strong Jobs Report. Reasonably Weak Reaction in Bonds - Fri, May 2, 2:29 PM

It is shaping up to be a straightforward morning for the bond market. There was a justified and logical amount of anticipation for today's numbers and the reaction is just as logical. Specificall...

Fri, May 2, 12:32 PM

First Move is Weaker After Higher Payrolls - Fri, May 2, 12:32 PM

Nonfarm Payrolls 177k vs 130k f'cast, 185k prev last month revised down from 228 Unemployment Rate 4.2 vs 4.2 f'cast, 4.2 prev Participation rate up 0.1%...

Thu, May 1, 8:19 PM

Bonds Brace For More Data-Driven Volatility - Thu, May 1, 8:19 PM

MBS Recap Bonds Brace For More Data-Driven Volatility MBS Recap Matthew Graham | 4...

Thu, May 1, 4:31 PM

Negative Reprices Becoming Likely - Thu, May 1, 4:31 PM

MBS now down 6 ticks (.19) on the day and more than a quarter point from AM highs. Lenders who had rates available before 10am (or even shortly thereafter) are increasingly likely to repric...

Thu, May 1, 3:26 PM

ISM Manufacturing Data Surprises Bonds (Not in a Good Way) - Thu, May 1, 3:26 PM

2 weeks ago, we got our first hint that the market was once again ready to respond to economic data after a few weeks of tariff headlines being the only game in town. The hint came from the...

Thu, May 1, 2:08 PM

Losing Ground After ISM Data - Thu, May 1, 2:08 PM

ISM Manufacturing PMI 48.7 vs 48.0 f'cast ISM Prices Paid 69.8 vs 70.3 f'cast, 69.4 prev The S&P version of this data (out 2 weeks ago) suggested we should brac...

Thu, May 1, 12:33 PM

Extending Overnight Gains on Jobless Claims Data - Thu, May 1, 12:33 PM

Jobless Claims 241k vs 224k f'cast, 223k prev Continued Claims 1916k vs 1860k f'cast, 1833k prev Pretty simple one here. Bonds were a hair stronger overnight...

Wed, April 30, 8:50 PM

Action Packed Calendar But No Major Action in Bonds - Wed, April 30, 8:50 PM

MBS Recap Action Packed Calendar But No Major Action in Bonds MBS Recap Matthew Gr...

Wed, April 30, 3:31 PM

Lots of Econ Data and Mixed Messages, But Not Much Change in Bonds - Wed, April 30, 3:31 PM

In terms of line items, Wednesday morning is the week's most active morning for economic reports. Several of them were potentially important, but the net effect has been muted so far. In fa...

Wed, April 30, 12:38 PM

Bonds Losing Ground Despite Weaker GDP Headline - Wed, April 30, 12:38 PM

Employment Cost Index 0.9 v 0.9 f'cast, 0.9 prev GDP -0.3 vs +0.3 f'cast, 2.4 prev Core PCE QoQ 3.5 vs 3.3 f'cast, 2.6 prev GDP Final Sales -2.5 vs...

Tue, April 29, 8:20 PM

Trading Range Restored. Big Data on Deck - Tue, April 29, 8:20 PM

MBS Recap Trading Range Restored. Big Data on Deck MBS Recap Matthew Graham | 4:19...

Tue, April 29, 2:50 PM

Bonds Erase Overnight Weakness With Help From Tariff Talk and Data - Tue, April 29, 2:50 PM

Once again, bonds were modestly weaker overnight and once again, that weakness is being reversed in early trading. Whereas scapegoats were nowhere to be found yesterday morning, Tuesday has a few...

Mon, April 28, 8:12 PM

No Whammies in Treasury Borrowing Estimate - Mon, April 28, 8:12 PM

MBS Recap No Whammies in Treasury Borrowing Estimate MBS Recap Matthew Graham | 4:...

Mon, April 28, 3:39 PM

Bonds Starting New Week at Last Week's Best Levels - Mon, April 28, 3:39 PM

When getting a sense of what's happening in the bond market, it's frequently safe to ignore the last 2 hours of trading on Friday and the first 2 on Monday. When that logic is applied today, we&n...

Fri, April 25, 9:09 PM

Eerily Calm and Strong For 2nd Straight Day - Fri, April 25, 9:09 PM

MBS Recap Eerily Calm and Strong For 2nd Straight Day MBS Recap Matthew Graham | 5...

Fri, April 25, 2:34 PM

Data Free Friday. Heavy Data Next Week - Fri, April 25, 2:34 PM

Today's only scheduled economic report is Consumer Sentiment. Nonetheless, we would classify today as being "data free" because this is simply the final reading of the preliminary release 2 weeks...

Thu, April 24, 8:26 PM

Solid Bond Rally For Debatable Reasons - Thu, April 24, 8:26 PM

MBS Recap Solid Bond Rally For Debatable Reasons MBS Recap Matthew Graham | 4:25 P...

Thu, April 24, 4:19 PM

Bigger Picture Starting to Look More Normal - Thu, April 24, 4:19 PM

What's "normal" for the bond market? That depends how far back you want to look. Starting in late February, we had about a month of mostly sideways movement in a relatively narrow range as ...

Thu, April 24, 12:48 PM

Overnight Gains and Uneventful Data - Thu, April 24, 12:48 PM

Jobless Claims 222k vs 222k f'cast, 216k prev Continued Claims 1841k vs 1880k f'cast, 1878k prev Durable Goods 9.2 vs 2.0 f'cast, 0.9 prev Core Durable ...

Wed, April 23, 8:42 PM

Bonds Lose Almost All The Gains After Inflation Warnings in The Data - Wed, April 23, 8:42 PM

MBS Recap Bonds Lose Almost All The Gains After Inflation Warnings in The Data MBS Recap ...

Wed, April 23, 4:17 PM

Additional Negative Reprice Risk - Wed, April 23, 4:17 PM

This is an amplification of the previous alert as bonds continue to slide. MBS are still up a quarter point but down roughly 3/8ths from highs. Even the later pricing lenders are seei...

Wed, April 23, 2:34 PM

MBS Still up Big But Well Off Highs (Hit by PMI Price Data) - Wed, April 23, 2:34 PM

Bonds and stocks are both sharply stronger today thanks to overnight headlines regarding Fed Chair Powell and fresh headlines on lower tariffs. Bonds are having more of a mixed reaction to ...

Wed, April 23, 2:17 PM

What's Up With Today's Big Bond Rally?! - Wed, April 23, 2:17 PM

Two factors had been contributing more than others to drive bond yields higher as of yesterday. The broader, ongoing factor is/was the tariff/trade stand-off with China. Whether approached ...

Tue, April 22, 8:37 PM

Broadly Sideways Despite Intraday Volatility - Tue, April 22, 8:37 PM

MBS Recap Broadly Sideways Despite Intraday Volatility MBS Recap Matthew Graham | ...

Tue, April 22, 3:07 PM

Here We Are Again: No News is Good News - Tue, April 22, 3:07 PM

If there was an overriding theme last week, it was that the absence of new tariff drama helped the bond market recover some of the previous week's weakness. While it wasn't exactly tariff drama, ...

Mon, April 21, 9:28 PM

Unfortunate Market Movement For Unfortunate Reasons - Mon, April 21, 9:28 PM

MBS Recap Unfortunate Market Movement For Unfortunate Reasons MBS Recap Matthew Gr...

Mon, April 21, 5:44 PM

Negative Reprices Becoming More Likely - Mon, April 21, 5:44 PM

Bonds continue selling steadily and gradually with no major spikes or reactions to headlines/data. 10yr yields are up 7.7bps at 4.403, right in line with the highs of the day. MBS are do...

Mon, April 21, 4:35 PM