MBS and Treasury Markets Archive

Jobs Report Does Nothing to Resolve Fed Rate Cut Debate - Fri, September 6, 2:55 PM

At first glance, this morning's jobs report suggested a modest but clearly-defined increase in the likelihood of a 50bp rate cut from the Fed in 2 weeks. Headline nonfarm payrolls came in a...

Fri, September 6, 2:37 PM

Reversal Reversing (Bonds Turning Green) - Fri, September 6, 2:37 PM

While there's always a chance of another lead change on NFP days, let's hope this one sticks. Bonds are now squarely back into positive territory with 10yr yields down more than 3bps at 3.6...

Fri, September 6, 1:37 PM

Bonds Fully Erase Post-NFP Gains - Fri, September 6, 1:37 PM

This alert is the product of a slow-motion retracement back to unchanged levels. Actually, 10yr yields are now 1.5bps higher on the day at 3.744. MBS are still technically 1 t...

Fri, September 6, 12:36 PM

NFP 142k vs 160k, Unemployment Drops. Bonds Rallying - Fri, September 6, 12:36 PM

Nonfarm Payrolls 142k vs 160k f'cast last month revised to 89k from 114k Unemployment Rate 4.2 vs 4.2 f'cast, 4.3 prev Earnings 0.4 vs 0.3 f'cast last month...

Thu, September 5, 8:54 PM

Jobs Data Poised to Influence Size of The Upcoming Rate Cut - Thu, September 5, 8:54 PM

MBS Recap Jobs Data Poised to Influence Size of The Upcoming Rate Cut MBS Recap Ma...

Thu, September 5, 4:03 PM

Mixed Bag Making For Mixed Morning - Thu, September 5, 4:03 PM

Thursday morning had the highest concentration of economic reports so far this week with ADP, Challenger, Claims, and two flavors of Services PMI data. The early employment metrics were wea...

Thu, September 5, 2:31 PM

Right on The Threshold of Negative Reprice Risk For Some Lenders - Thu, September 5, 2:31 PM

The selling that began after the ISM data has continued at a moderate pace. The short end of the yield curve is turning red and bringing MBS along for the ride. MBS are now "unchanged...

Thu, September 5, 2:07 PM

Losing Some Ground After Decent ISM Data - Thu, September 5, 2:07 PM

ISM Services PMI 51.5 vs 51.1 f'cast, 51.4 prev ISM Prices 57.3 vs 56.0 f'cast, 57.0 prev Bonds were coasting along with AM gains intact heading into the ISM data....

Thu, September 5, 12:37 PM

Slightly Stronger After ADP Employment - Thu, September 5, 12:37 PM

ADP Employment 99k vs 145k f'cast, 111k prev Challenger Layoffs 75k vs 26k prev Jobless Claims 227k vs 230k f'cast 232k prev Continued Claims ...

Wed, September 4, 8:20 PM

Persistent Rally After Data. More Data Ahead - Wed, September 4, 8:20 PM

MBS Recap Persistent Rally After Data. More Data Ahead MBS Recap Matthew Graham | ...

Wed, September 4, 4:09 PM

Fewer Job Openings. Lower Bond Yields - Wed, September 4, 4:09 PM

Market movement continues suggesting increased focus on labor-related economic data. This morning's JOLTS (job openings and labor turnover survey) is the latest example. Job open...

Wed, September 4, 2:03 PM

Bonds Rallying on JOLTS Data - Wed, September 4, 2:03 PM

Job Openings 7.673m vs 8.100m f'cast last mo revised to 7.91 from 8.18 Job Quits 3.277 vs 3.282m prev (lower is better for bonds) bonds were slightly st...

Tue, September 3, 8:03 PM

No Major Reaction to Data, But Data Remains Relevant - Tue, September 3, 8:03 PM

MBS Recap No Major Reaction to Data, But Data Remains Relevant MBS Recap Matthew G...

Tue, September 3, 4:48 PM

Down an Eighth From Highs - Tue, September 3, 4:48 PM

MBS are still much stronger on the day, up 5 ticks (.16) in total, but have drifted down roughly an eighth of a point from the AM highs. Some of the jumpier lenders could technically c...

Tue, September 3, 2:28 PM

Friday's Weird Month-End Trading Now a Distant Memory - Tue, September 3, 2:28 PM

Remember last Friday? It was sort of "weird" due to enigmatic selling pressure in the bond market. Yields stretched up to the highest levels in more than two weeks without any apparent prov...

Tue, September 3, 2:06 PM

Minimal Impact From ISM Data; Gains Intact - Tue, September 3, 2:06 PM

S&P Manufacturing PMI 47.9 vs 48.0 f'cast ISM Manufacturing PMI 47.2 vs 47.5 f'cast ISM Prices 54.0 vs 52.5 f'cast The 10am ISM Manufacturing repo...

Fri, August 30, 8:31 PM

Month-End Volatility, But No Bearing on Bigger Picture - Fri, August 30, 8:31 PM

MBS Recap Month-End Volatility, But No Bearing on Bigger Picture MBS Recap Matthew...

Fri, August 30, 4:20 PM

Down an Eighth From Highs - Fri, August 30, 4:20 PM

There's some relatively quick selling underway in Treasuries, spilling over to MBS. 5.0 coupons are down just over an eighth of a point from intraday highs (also at new lows for the day).&n...

Fri, August 30, 1:14 PM

PCE Inflation Offers No Objections to 25bp Cut - Fri, August 30, 1:14 PM

This morning's PCE inflation data was in line with expectations calling for a core monthly reading of 0.2%. In fact, the unrounded number was 0.16+ which annualizes at a perfect 2.0%. ...

Fri, August 30, 12:34 PM

Core PCE in Line With Expectations. Minimal Reaction - Fri, August 30, 12:34 PM

M/M Core PCE 0.2 vs 0.2 f'cast, 0.2 prev Y/Y Core PCE 2.6 vs 2.7 f'cast Don't look now, but inflation is getting to be "boring" with the past 4 reports calmly playi...

Thu, August 29, 9:00 PM

A Clear Reaction to Data Without Any Major Drama - Thu, August 29, 9:00 PM

MBS Recap A Clear Reaction to Data Without Any Major Drama MBS Recap Matthew Graha...

Thu, August 29, 7:43 PM

MBS at Weakest Levels, Underperforming - Thu, August 29, 7:43 PM

There is some MBS-specific weakness in the bond market this afternoon with 5.0 coupons down a quick 2 ticks (.06). The resulting levels are no lower than the AM lows, but the departure from...

Thu, August 29, 2:25 PM

Today's Losses Are All About Jobless Claims - Thu, August 29, 2:25 PM

There was a solid decade between 2010 and 2020 where weekly Jobless Claims data was completely inconsequential. The labor market had taken the hit from the great financial crisis and there ...

Thu, August 29, 12:36 PM

Bonds Losing Ground After 8:30am Data - Thu, August 29, 12:36 PM

Jobless Claims 231k vs 232k f'cast, 233k prev Continued Claims 1868k vs 1870k f'cast GDP 3.0 vs 2.8 f'cast, GDP Deflator 2.5 vs 2.3 f'ca...

Wed, August 28, 8:09 PM

Without Major Data, Bonds Remain Quiet - Wed, August 28, 8:09 PM

MBS Recap Without Major Data, Bonds Remain Quiet MBS Recap Matthew Graham | 4:08 P...

Wed, August 28, 6:17 PM

Weakest Levels for MBS - Wed, August 28, 6:17 PM

MBS are down 2 ticks (.06) on the day and 6 ticks (.19) from some lenders' rate sheet print times. As such, negative reprices are a risk. 10yr yields are up 1.4bps at 3.841. Overal...

Wed, August 28, 3:22 PM

Light Data Calendar Leaves Focus on 5yr Auction - Wed, August 28, 3:22 PM

It would have been hard for the present week to be any more of a boring, sideways grind than the previous week, but so far, so boring! Why do we say that? Consider that this is the 14...

Tue, August 27, 9:12 PM

MBS Continue to Outperform, Sorta - Tue, August 27, 9:12 PM

MBS Recap MBS Continue to Outperform, Sorta MBS Recap Matthew Graham | 5:12 PM ...

Tue, August 27, 2:13 PM

Nominal Pullback or a Negative Shift in The Trend? - Tue, August 27, 2:13 PM

Bonds are under a bit of pressure this morning with a modest extension of weakness that began in European trading hours. While this morning's selling seems to have leveled off for domestic ...

Mon, August 26, 9:00 PM

Uneventful Monday Despite AM Volatility - Mon, August 26, 9:00 PM

MBS Recap Uneventful Monday Despite AM Volatility MBS Recap Matthew Graham | 5:00 ...

Mon, August 26, 2:07 PM

MBS Down an Eighth From Highs - Mon, August 26, 2:07 PM

This is more of a heads-up than an urgent reprice alert. Volumes are low and bonds have been pushed around a bit by the 9:30am NYSE open. This resulted in a quick correction from...

Mon, August 26, 1:10 PM

Why Are Bonds Rallying Despite Much Stronger Durable Goods? - Mon, August 26, 1:10 PM

The Durable Goods report is a somewhat inconsistent report in terms of its ability to influence the bond market. There are definitely examples of big reactions, but equally as often, the da...

Fri, August 23, 8:25 PM

Closing Near Week's Best Levels - Fri, August 23, 8:25 PM

MBS Recap Closing Near Week's Best Levels MBS Recap Matthew Graham | 4:25 PM ...

Fri, August 23, 2:19 PM

Bonds are Liking Powell's Jackson Hole Speech - Fri, August 23, 2:19 PM

It's been a slow, uneventful week so far in terms of scheduled events. Even though we certainly saw some elevated volume and volatility over the past two days, trading levels continued to g...

Thu, August 22, 9:08 PM

It May Have Seemed Like a Bad Day, But... - Thu, August 22, 9:08 PM

MBS Recap It May Have Seemed Like a Bad Day, But... MBS Recap Matthew Graham | 5:0...

Thu, August 22, 4:45 PM

Negative Reprice Risk Increasing - Thu, August 22, 4:45 PM

MBS are now down a quarter point on the day and 6 ticks from the AM highs. Lenders who priced near those highs are increasingly likely to be considering negative reprices. 10yr yields ar...

Thu, August 22, 3:11 PM

Weakest Levels of The Morning - Thu, August 22, 3:11 PM

There are no new headlines or market movers in play, but bonds have been slowly drifting toward weaker levels. 10yr yields are now up 6.5bps at 3.866. MBS are down 6 ticks (.19) on the d...

Thu, August 22, 2:20 PM

Decent Data Only a Minimal Headwind For Bonds - Thu, August 22, 2:20 PM

There is an ongoing bias toward better buying and lower yields in the bond market in spite of a string of decent economic reports in the past week. Just this morning, we have 2 of the week'...

Thu, August 22, 12:39 PM

No Huge Impact From Claims Data - Thu, August 22, 12:39 PM

Jobless Claims 232k vs 230k f'cast, 227k prev Continued Claims 1863k vs 1870k f'cast, 1859k prev Bonds were moderately weaker overnight in a move that is just as ea...

Wed, August 21, 8:19 PM

Bonds Snooze Through Fed Minutes - Wed, August 21, 8:19 PM

MBS Recap Bonds Snooze Through Fed Minutes MBS Recap Matthew Graham | 4:18 PM ...

Wed, August 21, 8:18 PM

MBS Roughly an Eighth Below Afternoon Highs - Wed, August 21, 8:18 PM

MBS are still modestly higher on the day, but fell roughly an eighth of a point from their PM price plateau heading into the close. The only potential reprices risk would be among lenders w...

Wed, August 21, 4:18 PM

Range-Bound Volatility Surrounding Employment Revisions - Wed, August 21, 4:18 PM

Today brought the release of the first benchmark revision to the payroll data through March 2024. It caused widespread confusion both before and after it came out--partly because it didn't ...

Wed, August 21, 2:58 PM

Bonds Now Back in Line With Pre-Data Levels - Wed, August 21, 2:58 PM

While there was plenty of small-scale volatility surrounding the scheduled release of the QECW data, much of that volatility was driven by uncertainty regarding the actual number. Now that ...

Wed, August 21, 2:39 PM

Losing Some Ground After Payroll Revisions - Wed, August 21, 2:39 PM

Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QECW) for March 2024 Revised down 818k Expectations for this revision ranged from 600k to 1m. The bond market is initially l...

Tue, August 20, 8:17 PM

What's Up With 'Secret' Jobs Revisions? - Tue, August 20, 8:17 PM

MBS Recap What's Up With 'Secret' Jobs Revisions? MBS Recap Matthew Graham | 4:16 ...

Tue, August 20, 2:09 PM

Consolidation Continues. Gains and Losses Are an Illusion - Tue, August 20, 2:09 PM

While there will certainly be some excitement at some point in the future (possibly even the near future), and while we are already well acquainted with exciting times in the past, there are occa...

Mon, August 19, 7:52 PM

Uneventful Summertime Monday - Mon, August 19, 7:52 PM

MBS Recap Uneventful Summertime Monday MBS Recap Matthew Graham | 3:52 PM ...

Mon, August 19, 7:05 PM