POWELL: RATE CUT IN DECEMBER IS 'FAR FROM' FOREGONE CONCLUSION - BBG
Following that comment, bonds have sold off more aggressively, with MBS down 9 ticks (.28) and 10yr yields up 6.5bps at 4.0...
MBS are still down 6 ticks (.19) on the day and 5 ticks (.16) from lender rate sheet print times, but Treasury yields are up 5bps at 4.025 (new highs for the day).
This means there's an ongoin...
Rates cut 25bps as expected
QT ended (MBS proceeds reinvested into TSYs as expected)
Statement verbiage was a slight upgrade for the economy
10yr yields initially moved a few bps high...
Recent Available indicators suggest that growth of economic activity moderated in the first half of the year has been expanding at a moderate pace . Job gains have slowed this year , and t...
MBS are now down 6 ticks on the day (.19) and at least 5 ticks from most lenders' rate sheet print times. 10s are up 3.5bps at 4.011.
There's no specific news or event underlying the mov...
MBS are only down 3 ticks (.09) on the day and even less versus the AM highs, so this is just a heads up for anyone who was feeling defensive ahead of the Fed Announcement.
10yr yi...
Bonds are a hair weaker this morning with losses showing up in the overnight session and mostly flattening out in domestic trading. Without any big ticket data this morning, this aimless dr...
First off, bonds are doing fine this morning. 10yr yields are technically higher on the day, but only when compared to yesterday's 5pm levels. As far as most trade desks are concerned...
As the shutdown continues, econ data remains sparse. This makes for smaller, more range-bound movement overall with last week making a decent case to established the floor of the current range in...
In terms of topline results, CPI was bond friendly with the core at .223 vs .3 and the headline at 0.3 vs 0.4 in monthly terms. Annually, we're running at 3.0% in both metrics, which is hig...
We typically want to see an eighth of a point of weakness in MBS versus either the highs of the day or rate sheet print times in order to send out an alert.
Right now, we're only s...
Everything's relative when it comes to rates being high or low, but let's agree that the past 2 years have relentlessly driven home the notion of an increasingly flat, narrow range that has ...
Think back to October 17th. MBS opened slightly weaker and ended the day down about an eighth of a point. That was the last time we had a weaker start, and there are some parallels to today...
On the one hand, there's not much going on for the bond market these days. The jobs report is a flat-out requirement in terms of informing major changes in momentum. On the other hand, ther...
New week. Same grind. We're waiting (likely for a good while longer) for the government shutdown to end before the most relevant econ data can truly exert influence on the bond market in the big ...
By process of elimination and ongoing forensic efforts, it's becoming more and more clear that yesterday's mystery rally in the short end of the yield curve was a product of liquidity /reserve s...
Starting around 12:15pm ET and accelerating quickly at 12:25pm, bonds began a sharp rally, led quite clearly by the short end of the yield curve and Fed Funds Futures. In this short time, year-en...
There were quite a few economic reports that would have been released this morning were it not for the gov shutdown. OK, well only 3 notable absences, but there would have been a 3 wee...
MBS have quickly moved from the highs of the day to the lows with little apparent provocation. The move is real considering the sympathy in 10yr yields, up from 4.096 to 4.038 in short orde...
Stocks have made a bit of a round trip since last Friday when Trump's tariff comments sparked a big sell-off. Bonds benefited from that at the time. So far this week, stocks have stag...
Bonds are flashing red on the screen (depending on when you look), but even at their weakest levels of the morning, we'd still consider this a stronger start. Reason being: Friday afternoon'...
At the start of the week, we noted Japanese political developments as a key reason for overnight losses on Monday morning. This had to do with Takaichi winning control of Japan's LDP party, ...
MBS are now down 9 ticks (.28) on the day and just over an eighth of a point from the AM price plateau. Some of the jumpiest lenders would be in a position to consider negative reprices.
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With Jobless Claims on hold due to the shutdown, bonds are forced to endure another data-free morning. The calendar offered a glimmer of hope with a Powell speech, but it was pre-recorded and did...
Bonds are losing ground and are now at the weakest levels of the day ahead of the Fed Minutes release.
MBS are 1 tick lower (.03) lower on the day, but 5 ticks below the AM highs. ...
While there are a smattering of Fed speakers on the calendar today, the morning comments are not likely to have an impact. In fact, the average Fed speech is a forgettable event these days as the...
10yr yields drifted up toward the 4.20% technical level overnight but buyers showed up at the 8:20am CME open. The initial recovery looks more technical in nature. The subsequent buying brought b...
Lenders who priced after 10am are now seeing at least an eighth of a point of weakness in 5.0 UMBS. As such, the jumpier lenders in that crowd could be considering a negative reprice. 10yr ...
On paper, it was supposed to have been a sleepy session for bonds with nothing of note on the econ calendar. But in practice, we're seeing one of the larger instances of overnight selling in mont...
Bonds have been sliding into weaker territory after the 3pm CME close with 10yr yields up 3.8bps at 4.12 and MBS down 6 ticks (.19) on the day.
Any lender that priced before 10:15am is s...
