10yr yields are nearly back to unchanged levels now after being down more than 5bps earlier this morning. A majority of the move has played out in the 25 minutes since the 9:30am NYSE open-...
Bonds were sideways to slightly weaker in the overnight session. 4am to 7am was exceptionally flat and narrow. This is notable because stocks had done more than half of their overnight sell...
MBS are now down a quarter point on the day and 6 ticks (.19) from intraday highs. This is only 2 ticks (.06) lower vs the previous lows, but that's enough to increase negative reprice risk for t...
MBS are now at the weakest levels of the day, down 6 ticks (.19) overall and an eighth of a point from the highs. Negative reprices aren't especially likely for the average lender, but the possib...
First off, the market expected a shutdown resolution by mid November and especially since this past weekend. That's the reason today's news means essentially nothing in terms of being a sur...
ADP has been in the monthly data game for a long time when it comes to payroll counts, but their weekly report is the new kid on the econ data block. The public has only had access for a few week...
If members of the House can make it back to D.C. in sufficient numbers, there's a real possibility that the shutdown will end this week. Some marketplace chatter is attempting to connect overnigh...
Although bonds began the day in roughly unchanged territory, they began losing ground shortly thereafter. Things changed at the 9:30am NYSE open as stock losses helped arrest the selling pressure...
The shutdown has not only placed more emphasis on the alternative data that was already in the rotation, but also fueled interest in new sources. One that you'll likely hear more about in the com...
This is a bit of a tricky situation when it comes to assessing reprice risk. The short version is that the stronger your initial rate sheets are, the bigger the risk. Also, any rate s...
Today is a rare day when it comes to economic data. The first Wednesday of any given month is often an important one for economic data because ISM Services often falls on Wednesday, joining...
ISM Biz Activity (Oct)
54.3 vs -- f'cast, 49.9 prev
ISM N-Mfg PMI (Oct)
52.4 vs 50.8 f'cast, 50.0 prev
ISM Services Employment (Oct)
48.2 vs 47.6 f'cast, 47.2 pre...
ADP Employment
42k vs 25k f'cast, -32k prev
42k may feel like a low payroll count, and it may not feel like significant beat vs the 25k expectation, but bonds are nonetheless sel...
It doesn't always work like this, but today's overnight session saw the classic "conventional wisdom" trade with stocks prices and bond yields falling in concert. Believe it or not, this is the e...
Bonds were moderately weaker in the overnight session with most of the selling arriving at 7:56am ET when Alphabet filed for a large corporate bond offering, estimated at $15bln. Corporate bon...
MBS are now back to unchanged on the day and down 6 ticks (.19) from the AM highs. Because those highs coincide with most lenders' rate sheet print times, negative reprices are becoming a s...
Bonds are still in modestly positive territory but off the best levels to the tune of an eighth of a point in MBS. This could be considered the earliest threshold for negative reprice risk ...
With the shutdown ongoing, and the big ticket econ data vanished into the void, there's little for the bond market to do apart from get its books in order for month-end. If you're curious a...
MBS are only down 2 ticks (.06) on the day, but lenders who repriced near the highest levels of the day are now seeing 6 ticks (.19) of weakness. That's enough for many of those lenders to ...
The simplest way to understand yesterday's post-Fed sell-off is as follows. The market's enthusiasm for 3 Fed rate cuts in 2025 had grown a bit too large for the Fed's liking. The market was near...
POWELL: RATE CUT IN DECEMBER IS 'FAR FROM' FOREGONE CONCLUSION - BBG
Following that comment, bonds have sold off more aggressively, with MBS down 9 ticks (.28) and 10yr yields up 6.5bps at 4.0...
MBS are still down 6 ticks (.19) on the day and 5 ticks (.16) from lender rate sheet print times, but Treasury yields are up 5bps at 4.025 (new highs for the day).
This means there's an ongoin...
Rates cut 25bps as expected
QT ended (MBS proceeds reinvested into TSYs as expected)
Statement verbiage was a slight upgrade for the economy
10yr yields initially moved a few bps high...
Recent Available indicators suggest that growth of economic activity moderated in the first half of the year has been expanding at a moderate pace . Job gains have slowed this year , and t...
MBS are now down 6 ticks on the day (.19) and at least 5 ticks from most lenders' rate sheet print times. 10s are up 3.5bps at 4.011.
There's no specific news or event underlying the mov...
MBS are only down 3 ticks (.09) on the day and even less versus the AM highs, so this is just a heads up for anyone who was feeling defensive ahead of the Fed Announcement.
10yr yi...
Bonds are a hair weaker this morning with losses showing up in the overnight session and mostly flattening out in domestic trading. Without any big ticket data this morning, this aimless dr...
First off, bonds are doing fine this morning. 10yr yields are technically higher on the day, but only when compared to yesterday's 5pm levels. As far as most trade desks are concerned...
As the shutdown continues, econ data remains sparse. This makes for smaller, more range-bound movement overall with last week making a decent case to established the floor of the current range in...
In terms of topline results, CPI was bond friendly with the core at .223 vs .3 and the headline at 0.3 vs 0.4 in monthly terms. Annually, we're running at 3.0% in both metrics, which is hig...
We typically want to see an eighth of a point of weakness in MBS versus either the highs of the day or rate sheet print times in order to send out an alert.
Right now, we're only s...
Everything's relative when it comes to rates being high or low, but let's agree that the past 2 years have relentlessly driven home the notion of an increasingly flat, narrow range that has ...
Think back to October 17th. MBS opened slightly weaker and ended the day down about an eighth of a point. That was the last time we had a weaker start, and there are some parallels to today...
