MBS and Treasury Markets Archive

Paul Young

Loan Officer

Swift Mortgage

M: (480) 772-3054

https://myswift.mortgage/

1528 E Williams Field Rd
Bldg C, Suite 201
Gilbert AZ 85295

License:

NMLS 2090333

Company NMLS 1925754

Today, 8:44 PM

Fed Day Selling Spree as Press Conference Trumps The Dots - Today, 8:44 PM

MBS Recap Powell Press Conference Trumps The Dots, Sparking Moderate Sell-Off MBS Recap ...

Today, 8:35 PM

Negative Reprices Increasingly Likely If You Haven't Seen One Yet - Today, 8:35 PM

MBS are now down almost 3/8ths of a point on the day and easily over a quarter point from morning rate sheet print times. As such, any lender who has yet to reprice for the worse is highly likely...

Today, 6:55 PM

Negative Reprice Risk Increasing - Today, 6:55 PM

Rally reversal continues. MBS now down a quarter point on the day and 10yr up 5bps at 4.08. General reason: Powell's push-back on dots as predictive of 3 cuts in 2025. Negative ...

Today, 6:40 PM

Gains Vanish As Press Conference Begins - Today, 6:40 PM

The main issue for markets was the following comment: Fed Chair Powell: Individual Forecasts Are Not A Plan, Policy Not On Preset Course With that, MBS gave up all of the gains and ar...

Today, 6:03 PM

First Reaction to Fed Announcement is Stronger - Today, 6:03 PM

25bp cut, as expected Dot plot comparison attached. Median at 3.625 (2 more 2025 cuts) Bonds are rallying as expected in the "2 more cuts" scenario. 10yr down 1.9bps at 4.01 and...

Today, 6:00 PM

Here's What Changed in The New Fed Announcement - Today, 6:00 PM

Although swings in net exports continue to affect the data, recent Recent indicators suggest that growth of economic activity moderated in the first half of the year. The Job gains have slowe...

Today, 2:51 PM

What to Expect From The Fed Today - Today, 2:51 PM

The Fed rate announcement is at 2pm ET. A single 25bp rate cut is fully priced in to the bond market and that cut will not be responsible for any volatility you see at 2pm. A 50bp cut is so...

Tue, 8:03 PM

Big Shift Toward 5.0 Coupons Continues - Tue, 8:03 PM

MBS Recap Big Shift Toward 5.0 Coupons Continues MBS Recap Matthew Graham | 4:02 P...

Tue, 3:26 PM

Down Over an Eighth From AM Highs - Tue, 3:26 PM

The only downside of this morning's post-data recovery was that it set a higher level for MBS during some lenders' rate sheet print times. From those highs around 9:45am, MBS are now down 5 ticks...

Tue, 2:02 PM

Bonds Easily Clearing Last Pre-Fed Hurdle - Tue, 2:02 PM

After last week's CPI data was taken mostly in stride, the only other potential economic data hurdle was this morning's Retail Sales report. Whereas CPI was merely on the hotter side of the ...

Tue, 12:33 PM

Losing Ground After Retail Sales - Tue, 12:33 PM

Export prices mm (Aug) 0.3% vs 0% f'cast, 0.1% prev Import prices mm (Aug) 0.3% vs -0.1% f'cast, 0.4% prev Retail Sales (Aug) 0.6% vs 0.2% f'cast, 0.5% prev ...

Mon, 7:47 PM

Uneventful Rally. Retail Sales on Deck - Mon, 7:47 PM

MBS Recap Uneventful Rally. Retail Sales on Deck MBS Recap Matthew Graham | 3:46 P...

Mon, 3:24 PM

Slow, Slightly Stronger Start to a Potentially Volatile Week - Mon, 3:24 PM

For all the time we spend pushing back on the notion that the Fed Funds Rate is a root cause for volatility in longer-term rates, that push-back always carries a notable caveat: Fed Funds Rate ex...

Fri, September 12, 7:43 PM

Incidental, Inconsequential Weakness Ahead of Fed Week - Fri, September 12, 7:43 PM

MBS Recap Incidental, Inconsequential Weakness Ahead of Fed Week MBS Recap Matthew...

Fri, September 12, 3:11 PM

Back in The Range After Failed Breakout Attempt - Fri, September 12, 3:11 PM

Bonds began the week with 10yr at 4.07 before rallying down to 4.04 by Monday's close. Now on Friday, we're opening at 4.06 and we haven't spent much time trading more than a few bps higher...

Thu, September 11, 8:25 PM

Very Calm Reaction But Not Too Surprising - Thu, September 11, 8:25 PM

MBS Recap Very Calm Reaction But Not Too Surprising MBS Recap Matthew Graham | 4:2...

Thu, September 11, 8:12 PM

MBS Down an Eighth From Mid-AM Highs - Thu, September 11, 8:12 PM

This is more of a heads-up than a dire reprice alert. MBS are still up 1 tick on the day (0.03) and things have been reasonably flat all day. Slow erosion in bonds has now added up to...

Thu, September 11, 4:10 PM

Slightly Stronger Start Despite Slightly Higher Inflation - Thu, September 11, 4:10 PM

It's an interesting morning for economic data and the bond market's reaction. At face value, CPI was mostly in line with forecasts, but unrounded numbers were a bit hot (i.e. core monthly C...

Thu, September 11, 12:37 PM

Core CPI Slightly Hotter, But Claims May Be Helping - Thu, September 11, 12:37 PM

Continued Claims (Aug)/30 1,939K vs 1950K f'cast, 1940K prev Continued Claims (Aug)/30 1,939K vs 1950K f'cast, 1940K prev Jobless Claims (Sep)/06 263K vs 235K f'c...

Wed, September 10, 8:28 PM

Helpful Data and Treasury Auction Set High Bar For CPI - Wed, September 10, 8:28 PM

MBS Recap Helpful Data and Treasury Auction Set High Bar For CPI MBS Recap Matthew...

Wed, September 10, 8:13 PM

Heads-Up: MBS Down an Eighth From Highs - Wed, September 10, 8:13 PM

This is definitely one of those "heads-up" type of alerts in that it doesn't necessarily connote a high degree of reprice risk. That said, prices are down an eighth of a point from highs. The ...

Wed, September 10, 3:27 PM

Super Cool PPI Makes For a Stronger Start - Wed, September 10, 3:27 PM

Of the two inflation reports out this week, PPI is the lesser of the two in terms of importance, but it came in far enough below forecasts to prompt some bond buying to start the day. PPI is a co...

Wed, September 10, 12:36 PM

Bonds Rallying After Weaker PPI - Wed, September 10, 12:36 PM

Core Producer Prices MM (Aug) -0.1% vs 0.3% f'cast, 0.9% prev Core Producer Prices YY (Aug) 2.8% vs 3.5% f'cast, 3.7% prev Producer Prices (Aug) -0.1% vs 0.3% f'c...

Tue, September 9, 8:04 PM

Post-NFP Rally Momentum Fades - Tue, September 9, 8:04 PM

MBS Recap Post-NFP Rally Momentum Fades MBS Recap Matthew Graham | 4:03 PM ...

Tue, September 9, 7:53 PM

New Lows. More Reprice Risk - Tue, September 9, 7:53 PM

If you haven't seen a reprice for the worse yet, chances are increasing. MBS are now down 6 ticks (.19) from many lenders' rate sheet print times versus 4 ticks (.125) at the time of the pr...

Tue, September 9, 3:10 PM

Weakest Levels; MBS Down an Eighth - Tue, September 9, 3:10 PM

Bonds have been selling steadily since the 9:30am NYSE open. MBS are now down an eighth of a point from their AM highs. Because those highs coincided with some lenders' rate sheet print times, ne...

Tue, September 9, 2:31 PM

These Aren't The NFP Revisions You're Looking For - Tue, September 9, 2:31 PM

On August 1st, Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) not only came out weaker than expected, but the previous two reports were also revised significantly lower. This is the report that generated buzz over the "...

Mon, September 8, 7:33 PM

More Gains Despite Absence of New Motivation - Mon, September 8, 7:33 PM

MBS Recap More Gains Despite Absence of New Motivation MBS Recap Matthew Graham | ...

Fri, September 5, 8:44 PM

Textbook Reaction With Minimal Volatility - Fri, September 5, 8:44 PM

MBS Recap Textbook Reaction With Minimal Volatility MBS Recap Matthew Graham | 4:4...

Fri, September 5, 6:48 PM

Heads-Up: MBS Down an Eighth From Mid-Day Highs - Fri, September 5, 6:48 PM

This isn't necessarily a typical reprice alert that connotes a high risk of impending price changes. Rather, it's a heads-up to let you know that 5.5 and 5.0 coupons are both down at least an eig...

Fri, September 5, 4:32 PM

A Quick Note on Why Rates Seem to Drop More Quickly as They Approach Certain Thresholds - Fri, September 5, 4:32 PM

It may seem like today's bond market movement alone (3/8ths higher in MBS and 0.09% in 10yr yields) doesn't explain the pace of improvement in mortgage rates. For that, we'd need to consider the ...

Fri, September 5, 1:07 PM

Another Weak Jobs Report. Another Bond Rally - Fri, September 5, 1:07 PM

It's a fairly straightforward morning with NFP coming in much weaker than expected with additional net-negative revisions to the previous 2 months. The only real caveat is that the unemployment r...

Fri, September 5, 12:32 PM

First Move After NFP is Stronger - Fri, September 5, 12:32 PM

Nonfarm Payrolls 22k vs 75k f'cast, 79k prev Unemployment Rate 4.3 vs 4.3 f'cast, 4.2 prev The results speak for themselves. And while 22k vs 75k is not actua...

Thu, September 4, 7:54 PM

Bonds Positioning For Weaker Jobs Report? - Thu, September 4, 7:54 PM

MBS Recap Bonds Positioning For Weaker NFP? MBS Recap Matthew Graham | 3:53 PM ...

Thu, September 4, 2:32 PM

Mixed Data. Mixed Reaction - Thu, September 4, 2:32 PM

Thursday morning's slate of econ data was the most active of the week with claims, layoffs, ADP, and ISM Services (also the Trade Gap and Labor Costs, but those aren't really in the "market mover...

Wed, September 3, 8:21 PM

Straightforward Data-Driven Rally - Wed, September 3, 8:21 PM

MBS Recap Straightforward Data-Driven Rally MBS Recap Matthew Graham | 4:20 PM ...

Wed, September 3, 2:12 PM

JOLTS Data Bringing The Buyers - Wed, September 3, 2:12 PM

Bonds were flat to just slightly stronger in the overnight session but a noticeable rally is underway following the JOLTS data (job openings and labor turnover survey). This is a new cycle low fo...

Tue, September 2, 8:33 PM

Still in The Range as Bonds Wait For Bigger Influences - Tue, September 2, 8:33 PM

MBS Recap Still in The Range as Bonds Wait For Bigger Influences MBS Recap Matthew...

Tue, September 2, 2:31 PM

Bonds Dealing With Holiday Hangover Despite Friendly Data - Tue, September 2, 2:31 PM

The Tuesday after Labor Day can have a mind of its own when it comes to financial markets--especially if it also happens to be the trading day of the month. Last week's month-end trading environm...

Fri, August 29, 8:21 PM

Calm Day to End A Calm Week - Fri, August 29, 8:21 PM

MBS Recap Calm Day to End A Calm Week MBS Recap Matthew Graham | 4:20 PM ...

Fri, August 29, 3:43 PM

PCE Inflation Offers No Surprises - Fri, August 29, 3:43 PM

There are two big picture inflation reports in US that address consumer prices: CPI and PCE. Of the two, PCE is broader and more highly regarded by policymakers. The downside is that it comes out...

Fri, August 29, 12:33 PM

PCE Right In Line With Expectations - Fri, August 29, 12:33 PM

Core PCE (m/m) (Jul) 0.3% vs 0.3% f'cast, 0.3% prev Core PCE Inflation (y/y) (Jul) 2.9% vs 2.9% f'cast, 2.8% prev Inflation-Adjusted Spending (Consumption) (Jul) ...

Thu, August 28, 8:15 PM

Generally Exciting, But Specifically Boring - Thu, August 28, 8:15 PM

MBS Recap Generally Exciting, But Specifically Boring MBS Recap Matthew Graham | 4...

Thu, August 28, 1:10 PM

Fairly Steady After Glut of Low-Consequence Data - Thu, August 28, 1:10 PM

This morning's economic calendar only looks robust on paper. While quarterly GDP results in numerous line items, they're not as important as they might sound. For instance, PCE prices are a...

Wed, August 27, 9:12 PM

Steady Gains After Slightly Weaker Start - Wed, August 27, 9:12 PM

MBS Recap Steady Gains After Slightly Weaker Start MBS Recap Matthew Graham | 5:12...

Wed, August 27, 3:18 PM

Light Data Calendar Leaves Focus on Treasury Auctions. Do Earning Matter? - Wed, August 27, 3:18 PM

Not that this week's economic calendar is especially robust, but Wednesday's offerings are especially light. There are no monthly economic reports on tap and no major events. The only poten...

Tue, August 26, 9:46 PM

Does "Yield Curve Steepening" Matter? - Tue, August 26, 9:46 PM

MBS Recap Modest, Incidental Victory MBS Recap Matthew Graham | 5:45 PM ...

Tue, August 26, 2:30 PM

Another Slow Start Despite Underlying Drama - Tue, August 26, 2:30 PM

Focusing only production MBS coupons and longer-term Treasuries, the bond market is off to another slow, sideways start today with minimal change versus yesterday. With all of this morning'...

Mon, August 25, 8:32 PM

Fairly Quiet Monday Considering Last Week's Noise - Mon, August 25, 8:32 PM

MBS Recap Fairly Quiet Monday Considering Last Week's Noise MBS Recap Matthew Grah...

Mon, August 25, 3:37 PM

New Week, Same Struggles - Mon, August 25, 3:37 PM

Last week may have ended on a high note with bonds rallying on Powell's Jackson Hole speech, but perception was better than reality at the time. The reality was/is that Friday's rally merely rein...

Paul Young

Loan Officer

Swift Mortgage

M: (480) 772-3054

https://myswift.mortgage/

1528 E Williams Field Rd
Bldg C, Suite 201
Gilbert AZ 85295

License:

NMLS 2090333

Company NMLS 1925754

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Reproduction or redistribution this newsletter, outside of the distribution services provided, is prohibited. Interest rate data provided in this newsletter are national averages. Rate/APR terms may differ. All information provided "as is" for informational purposes only.