MBS and Treasury Markets Archive

Down More Than an Eighth From The Highs - Today, 4:20 PM

After being up more than 3/8ths of a point on the day, MBS are now up only a quarter point and down 5 ticks (.16) from the AM highs. Because those highs occurred around the same time m...

Today, 3:08 PM

When is a Rally Not a Rally? (Explaining "Big" Overnight Move) - Today, 3:08 PM

Up until last Friday, 10yr Treasury yields had consistently closed at 4.27-4.28 last week. Now this morning, we're at 4.27-4.28 again. That's the shortest way to explain that we're no...

Fri, November 1, 9:07 PM

Why Bonds Tanked Despite Super Low NFP - Fri, November 1, 9:07 PM

MBS Recap Why Bonds Tanked Despite Super Low NFP MBS Recap Matthew Graham | 5:06 P...

Fri, November 1, 3:51 PM

Negative Reprice Risk Increasing - Fri, November 1, 3:51 PM

MBS are now down 5 ticks (.16) on the day and an entire half point from the AM highs. Many lenders are seeing at least a quarter point of weakness from morning rate sheet print times. ...

Fri, November 1, 2:22 PM

Down More Than a Quarter Point From Highs - Fri, November 1, 2:22 PM

After this morning's initial rally, bonds have been losing ground steadily. They're now at the weakest levels of the day with MBS roughly unchanged and down more than a quarter point from t...

Fri, November 1, 2:06 PM

Yes, NFP Really Dropped to 12k, But Don't Expect a Huge Rally - Fri, November 1, 2:06 PM

When the median forecast for today's jobs report began circulating, many a market watcher felt that the 113k forecast was too low compared to the 254k previous reading, even after considering the...

Fri, November 1, 12:38 PM

Swing and a Miss For NonFarm Payrolls. Bonds Rallying - Fri, November 1, 12:38 PM

Nonfarm Payrolls 12k vs 113k f'cast, 223k prev Unemployment Rate 4.1 vs 4.1 f'cast, 4.1 prev Clearly, the forecast consensus--which seemed way too low to everyone, ...

Thu, October 31, 8:52 PM

Will Jobs Report Finally Get Bond Market's Attention? - Thu, October 31, 8:52 PM

MBS Recap Will Jobs Data Finally Get Bond Market's Attention? MBS Recap Matthew Gr...

Thu, October 31, 4:16 PM

Once Again, Bonds Hangin' Tough Without Much Focus on Data - Thu, October 31, 4:16 PM

If it weren't for the surge of volume in Treasuries lining up perfectly with economic report release times, one might wonder if traders even care that much about economic data right now. Th...

Thu, October 31, 2:01 PM

MBS Down Nearly a Quarter Point From Highs - Thu, October 31, 2:01 PM

Granted, this morning's highs were only seen for a few brief moments. They also didn't coincide with any rate sheet print times. Nonetheless, current prices are now exactly a quarter ...

Thu, October 31, 12:38 PM

Mixed Reaction to Slightly Stronger Data - Thu, October 31, 12:38 PM

Jobless Claims 216k vs 230k f'cast, 228k prev Continued Claims 1862k vs 1890k f'cast Core PCE Prices M/M 0.3 vs 0.3 f'cast, 0.1 prev Core PCE Y/Y 2....

Wed, October 30, 8:35 PM

Decent Showing in Light of Stronger Data - Wed, October 30, 8:35 PM

MBS Recap Decent Showing in Light of Stronger Data MBS Recap Matthew Graham | 4:35...

Wed, October 30, 7:18 PM

New Lows For MBS - Wed, October 30, 7:18 PM

MBS prices lost ground fairly quickly after the 3pm CME close and 5.5 coupons are now down a quarter point on the day and just over 3/8ths from the AM highs. Negative reprices remain possib...

Wed, October 30, 3:26 PM

Deceptively Resilient After Stronger Data - Wed, October 30, 3:26 PM

It's been an interesting morning for the bond market so far. ADP employment came in much stronger than expected. 15 minutes later, Q3 GDP was slightly weaker (2.8 vs 3.0) but with hig...

Wed, October 30, 3:11 PM

MBS Down Over a Quarter Point From Highs - Wed, October 30, 3:11 PM

It's easy to lose sight of the current sell-off in this morning's shuffle. There's been a lot of back and forth. Unfortunately, the highs of the day coincide with lender rate sheet pr...

Wed, October 30, 12:40 PM

Some Additional Weakness After GDP Data - Wed, October 30, 12:40 PM

GDP Q3 2.8 vs 3.0 f'cast, 3.0 prev Core Q3 PCE price index 2.2 vs 2.1 f'cast, 2.8 prev All things considered, bonds are holding up fairly well. The 2.2 vs 2.1...

Wed, October 30, 12:20 PM

ADP Jobs Much Higher Than Expected. Bonds Selling, But Gently So Far - Wed, October 30, 12:20 PM

ADP Employment 233k vs 115k f'cast, 143k prev The prevailing sentiment heading into this week's payroll counts (ADP and NFP) was that the hurricane would make for artificially lo...

Tue, October 29, 8:40 PM

Nice Recovery After JOLTS Data and Treasury Auction - Tue, October 29, 8:40 PM

MBS Recap Nice Recovery After JOLTS Data and Treasury Auction MBS Recap Matthew Gr...

Tue, October 29, 5:48 PM

MBS Move Into Positive Territory After 7yr Auction - Tue, October 29, 5:48 PM

7yr Treasury Auction 4.215 vs 4.235 f'cast bid to cover 2.74x vs 2.54x avg primer on auction jargon Bonds were near their weakest levels of the day with 10yr yields pushi...

Tue, October 29, 2:18 PM

Pushing Back Against Early Weakness After JOLTS Data - Tue, October 29, 2:18 PM

As we've noted on many occasions in the past few years, JOLTS (the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey) used to be a non-event in terms of economic data moving markets. That changed in a...

Mon, October 28, 9:16 PM

Bonds Doing What Bonds Do - Mon, October 28, 9:16 PM

MBS Recap Bonds Doing What Bonds Do MBS Recap Matthew Graham | 5:13 PM ...

Mon, October 28, 4:03 PM

Negative Reprices Becoming More LIkely - Mon, October 28, 4:03 PM

MBS have lost more than an eighth of a point since the last alert. They're now down a quarter point on the day and almost 3/8ths from the AM highs. This makes negative reprices increas...

Mon, October 28, 3:04 PM

MBS Down More Than an Eighth From Highs - Mon, October 28, 3:04 PM

Bonds pushed into modestly positive territory to start the day, but have been giving up gains in the 10am hour. 5.5 UMBS are only down 2 ticks (.06) on the day, but that's 5 ticks (.16) bel...

Mon, October 28, 2:40 PM

Here Comes The Data (Starting Tomorrow) - Mon, October 28, 2:40 PM

After 2 frustrating weeks spent moving toward higher yields without any major justification from the economic data, things are about to change. From here on out, the move toward higher yiel...

Fri, October 25, 7:40 PM

Stronger Start, Weaker Finish - Fri, October 25, 7:40 PM

MBS Recap Stronger Start, Weaker Finish MBS Recap Matthew Graham | 3:40 PM ...

Fri, October 25, 7:20 PM

Negative Reprices Becoming Increasingly Likely - Fri, October 25, 7:20 PM

MBS are now down 5 ticks (.16) on the day and 10 ticks (.31) from AM highs. Lenders who have not yet repriced for the worse are increasingly likely to be considering it. 10yr yields are ...

Fri, October 25, 6:30 PM

Additional Negative Reprice Risk - Fri, October 25, 6:30 PM

Still no drama, just slow losses throughout the day. MBS are now down 3 ticks (0.09) in total and a quarter point from AM highs. Most lenders could justify a negative reprice if you h...

Fri, October 25, 4:33 PM

MBS At Lows - Fri, October 25, 4:33 PM

Nothing dramatic is happening by any means, but MBS have trickled down to new lows for the day. 5.5 coupons are still up 1 tick (.03) but down 5 ticks (.16) from the highs. Lenders wh...

Fri, October 25, 3:16 PM

Another Flat Start After Uninspiring Data - Fri, October 25, 3:16 PM

Granted, we were by no means looking for big things from this morning's Durable Goods data, but somehow it still managed to underwhelm. That's not saying much for Durable Goods considering ...

Fri, October 25, 12:36 PM

No Reaction to Durable Goods Data - Fri, October 25, 12:36 PM

Durable Goods -0.8 vs -1.0 f'cast, 0.0 prev Nondefense, excluding aircraft 0.5 vs 0.1 f'cast, 0.2 prev Despite the stronger headline and even stronger "nondefense, ...

Thu, October 24, 8:56 PM

Better Balance, Finally - Thu, October 24, 8:56 PM

MBS Recap Better Balance, Finally MBS Recap Matthew Graham | 4:55 PM B...

Thu, October 24, 8:49 PM

Gains Mostly Evaporated - Thu, October 24, 8:49 PM

After being up just over a quarter point at times, MBS are now up only 2 ticks (.06). That shift played out after 2pm today with bonds currently at their lowest prices since this morning. ...

Thu, October 24, 2:31 PM

Bonds Doing Reasonably Well Considering Stronger Data - Thu, October 24, 2:31 PM

Thursday morning brought the week's only arguably important economic data in the form of Jobless Claims and S&P's PMIs. Both have a decent track record of inspiring small but noticeable...

Thu, October 24, 12:35 PM

Giving Up Overnight Gains After Stronger Jobless Claims - Thu, October 24, 12:35 PM

Jobless Claims 227k vs 242k f'cast, 242k prev Continued Claims 1897k vs 1880k f'cast, 1869k prev Bonds were moderately stronger overnight but are dialing back the g...

Wed, October 23, 8:35 PM

Why Would Rates Care About a One-Party Sweep? - Wed, October 23, 8:35 PM

MBS Recap Why Would Rates Care About a One-Party Sweep? MBS Recap Matthew Graham |...

Wed, October 23, 5:56 PM

Heads Up: Losing Ground Again After Decent Recovery - Wed, October 23, 5:56 PM

This is more of a heads-up than a true "alert." The morning's initial alert covered a sell-off that resulted in prices being even lower than they are right now. The only reason for a ...

Wed, October 23, 2:13 PM

Important Reminder About How Bad Things Could Get - Wed, October 23, 2:13 PM

For those of you who already feel like you fully understand the message in Tuesday's recap, the next few days and weeks might get a little repetitive, but the gravity of the message bears repeati...

Wed, October 23, 1:59 PM

Early Weakness - Wed, October 23, 1:59 PM

Bonds began the day in weaker territory and have been losing ground gradually since the open. MBS are now down almost a quarter point on the day with almost an eighth of a point of losses i...

Tue, October 22, 8:35 PM

Much Calmer, But Risks Remain - Tue, October 22, 8:35 PM

MBS Recap Much Calmer, But Risks Remain MBS Recap Matthew Graham | 4:34 PM ...

Tue, October 22, 3:21 PM

Negative Reprice Risk Creeping In - Tue, October 22, 3:21 PM

Bonds are still unchanged to slightly stronger on the day, but prices have been leaking to the lowest levels. MBS are down 5 ticks (.16) from the AM highs. Because those highs occurre...

Tue, October 22, 2:30 PM

Off to a Better Start vs Monday (Not That The Bar Was High...) - Tue, October 22, 2:30 PM

Monday was frustrating for the bond market. It was a medium large sell-off that would have made more sense as a flat, forgettable Monday. The only thing remotely resembling a consensus on t...

Mon, October 21, 8:48 PM

Ratio of Weakness to Confirmed Explanations is Off The Charts - Mon, October 21, 8:48 PM

MBS Recap Ratio of Weakness to Confirmed Explanations is Off The Charts MBS Recap ...

Mon, October 21, 4:16 PM

Bonds Have a (Bad) Case of The Mondays - Mon, October 21, 4:16 PM

First off, there's no great explanation for the extent to which bonds are losing ground this morning. These days happen occasionally. Sometimes an elusive market mover becomes clearer...

Mon, October 21, 3:13 PM

Snowball Selling; Reprice Risk Increasing - Mon, October 21, 3:13 PM

MBS are now down 3/8ths in 5.5 coupons and more than half a point in 5.0 coupons. 10yr yields are up 9bps to new highs of 4.168. There are no overt market movers in play this morning, wh...

Mon, October 21, 2:07 PM

MBS at new lows - Mon, October 21, 2:07 PM

MBS just lost another 2 ticks (.06) on top of an already weak start, bringing the total loss to more than a quarter point on the day for 5.5 coupons and 3/8ths of a point for 5.0 coupons. ...

Fri, October 18, 8:03 PM

Waiting Game Returns With Straightforward, Sleepy Friday - Fri, October 18, 8:03 PM

MBS Recap Waiting Game Returns With Straightforward, Sleepy Friday MBS Recap Matth...

Fri, October 18, 3:02 PM

In The Absence of Data, No Need For More Selling - Fri, October 18, 3:02 PM

While the recent trend has been unpleasant for the bond market, at least it's logical. Apart from some uncertainty related to the election and forthcoming Fed meeting, data drives all (to b...

Thu, October 17, 9:27 PM