For all the time we spend pushing back on the notion that the Fed Funds Rate is a root cause for volatility in longer-term rates, that push-back always carries a notable caveat: Fed Funds Rate ex...
Bonds began the week with 10yr at 4.07 before rallying down to 4.04 by Monday's close. Now on Friday, we're opening at 4.06 and we haven't spent much time trading more than a few bps higher...
This is more of a heads-up than a dire reprice alert. MBS are still up 1 tick on the day (0.03) and things have been reasonably flat all day. Slow erosion in bonds has now added up to...
It's an interesting morning for economic data and the bond market's reaction. At face value, CPI was mostly in line with forecasts, but unrounded numbers were a bit hot (i.e. core monthly C...
Continued Claims (Aug)/30
1,939K vs 1950K f'cast, 1940K prev
Continued Claims (Aug)/30
1,939K vs 1950K f'cast, 1940K prev
Jobless Claims (Sep)/06
263K vs 235K f'c...
This is definitely one of those "heads-up" type of alerts in that it doesn't necessarily connote a high degree of reprice risk.
That said, prices are down an eighth of a point from highs. The ...
Of the two inflation reports out this week, PPI is the lesser of the two in terms of importance, but it came in far enough below forecasts to prompt some bond buying to start the day. PPI is a co...
If you haven't seen a reprice for the worse yet, chances are increasing. MBS are now down 6 ticks (.19) from many lenders' rate sheet print times versus 4 ticks (.125) at the time of the pr...
Bonds have been selling steadily since the 9:30am NYSE open. MBS are now down an eighth of a point from their AM highs. Because those highs coincided with some lenders' rate sheet print times, ne...
On August 1st, Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) not only came out weaker than expected, but the previous two reports were also revised significantly lower. This is the report that generated buzz over the "...
This isn't necessarily a typical reprice alert that connotes a high risk of impending price changes. Rather, it's a heads-up to let you know that 5.5 and 5.0 coupons are both down at least an eig...
It may seem like today's bond market movement alone (3/8ths higher in MBS and 0.09% in 10yr yields) doesn't explain the pace of improvement in mortgage rates. For that, we'd need to consider the ...
It's a fairly straightforward morning with NFP coming in much weaker than expected with additional net-negative revisions to the previous 2 months. The only real caveat is that the unemployment r...
Nonfarm Payrolls
22k vs 75k f'cast, 79k prev
Unemployment Rate
4.3 vs 4.3 f'cast, 4.2 prev
The results speak for themselves. And while 22k vs 75k is not actua...
Thursday morning's slate of econ data was the most active of the week with claims, layoffs, ADP, and ISM Services (also the Trade Gap and Labor Costs, but those aren't really in the "market mover...
Bonds were flat to just slightly stronger in the overnight session but a noticeable rally is underway following the JOLTS data (job openings and labor turnover survey). This is a new cycle low fo...
The Tuesday after Labor Day can have a mind of its own when it comes to financial markets--especially if it also happens to be the trading day of the month. Last week's month-end trading environm...
There are two big picture inflation reports in US that address consumer prices: CPI and PCE. Of the two, PCE is broader and more highly regarded by policymakers. The downside is that it comes out...
This morning's economic calendar only looks robust on paper. While quarterly GDP results in numerous line items, they're not as important as they might sound. For instance, PCE prices are a...
Not that this week's economic calendar is especially robust, but Wednesday's offerings are especially light. There are no monthly economic reports on tap and no major events. The only poten...
Focusing only production MBS coupons and longer-term Treasuries, the bond market is off to another slow, sideways start today with minimal change versus yesterday. With all of this morning'...
Last week may have ended on a high note with bonds rallying on Powell's Jackson Hole speech, but perception was better than reality at the time. The reality was/is that Friday's rally merely rein...
Today's Jackson Hole speech gave Fed Chair Powell an opportunity to adjust his stance in light of much weaker jobs report that came out 2 days after the last Fed meeting. Powell had quite a bit t...
This is the newswire of the day: POWELL: SHIFTING BALANCE OF RISKS MAY WARRANT ADJUSTING POLICY
That's all the market needed to see and bonds are rallying fairly sharply.
MBS are up a ...
MBS are now down 5 ticks (.16) on the day and nearly an eighth of a point from some early lenders' rate sheet print times. 10yr yields are also up to new highs, up 4.5bps on the day at 4.35.
F...
Today is the only day of the week with any economic reports that are relevant to bond market movement. The results are in, and bonds aren't thrilled. Jobless Claims and the Philly Fed headl...
This is more of an addendum to the previous update. MBS had rallied 2 ticks (.06) from opening lows and have since erased that gain. We're now 3 ticks (.09) lower vs yesterday's close...
Continued Claims (Aug)/09
1,972K vs 1960K f'cast, 1953K prev
Jobless Claims (Aug)/16
235K vs 225K f'cast, 224K prev
Philly Fed Business Index (Aug)
-0.3 vs 7 f'ca...
By now, we've already said quite a bit about this week's scarcity of scheduled events with the power to motivate meaningful changes in the bond market. With that being the case, one might be temp...
If yesterday was marked by incidental weakness, today is shaping up to be the opposite. In fact, yields and MBS prices are right in line with Friday's latest levels in early trading (now mo...
