MBS and Treasury Markets Archive

Ethan Brooks

Mortgage Advisor / Branch Manager

Fairway Mortgage

M: (414) 488-0438

ethanbrooks.mortgage

11220 W Burleigh St
Suite 100
Wauwatosa WI 53222

License:

1639987

Ask Me a Question

Fri, February 21, 10:00 PM

Solid Conclusion to a Solid Week - Fri, February 21, 10:00 PM

MBS Recap Solid Conclusion to a Solid Week MBS Recap Matthew Graham | 4:59 PM ...

Fri, February 21, 4:57 PM

Near Best Levels in Months After AM Econ Data - Fri, February 21, 4:57 PM

MBS are very close to their February 5th levels, which were the best since the morning of December 18th before the Fed announcement (and dot plot) caused a big sell-off. Today, it's econ da...

Fri, February 21, 2:53 PM

Big Miss in S&P PMI. Good Reaction in Bonds - Fri, February 21, 2:53 PM

S&P Services PMI 49.7 vs 53.0 f'cast, 52.9 prev S&P Manufacturing PMI 51.6 vs 54.5 f'cast, 51.2 prev Bonds were already in modestly stronger territory ahead...

Thu, February 20, 9:50 PM

Very Low Volatility After Early Morning Rally - Thu, February 20, 9:50 PM

MBS Recap Very Low Volatility After Early Morning Rally MBS Recap Matthew Graham |...

Thu, February 20, 5:00 PM

Stronger Start. Thank Walmart or Bessent? - Thu, February 20, 5:00 PM

There's an interesting little case study in this morning's market movement. Bonds had been sideway to very slightly weaker overnight, but began to rally at 7am ET. The most notable market h...

Thu, February 20, 1:37 PM

No Major Reaction to AM Econ Data - Thu, February 20, 1:37 PM

Jobless Claims 219k vs 215k f'cast, 214k prev Continued Claims 1869k vs 1870k f'cast, 1845k prev Philly Fed Index 18.1 vs 20.0 f'cast, 44.3 prev Philly ...

Wed, February 19, 9:30 PM

Deep Dive on Today's Misunderstood Fed Comments - Wed, February 19, 9:30 PM

MBS Recap Deep Dive on Today's Misunderstood Fed Comments MBS Recap Matthew Graham...

Wed, February 19, 3:34 PM

Stabilizing After Early Weakness; Do Fed Minutes Matter? - Wed, February 19, 3:34 PM

Bonds extended yesterday's selling streak in the overnight session, but not in an alarming or serious way. Momentum reversed at 9am without any clear catalyst apart from the technical ceiling at ...

Tue, February 18, 9:52 PM

Bonds Give Up Friday's Gains - Tue, February 18, 9:52 PM

MBS Recap Bonds Give Up Friday's Gains MBS Recap Matthew Graham | 4:52 PM ...

Tue, February 18, 8:02 PM

MBS at New Lows - Tue, February 18, 8:02 PM

Bonds have been drifting into weaker territory after hitting the best levels of the day just before the noon hour. That drift has now resulted in the weakest levels of the day with MBS down...

Tue, February 18, 4:32 PM

Limited Volatility After Losing Some Ground Over The Weekend - Tue, February 18, 4:32 PM

Traders have done a reasonably good job of making it back to the office after the 3-day weekend. Volumes are almost in line with last Tuesday (also a day without any big ticket economic data in t...

Fri, February 14, 10:12 PM

Paradoxical Rally Gets Logical After Retail Sales - Fri, February 14, 10:12 PM

MBS Recap Paradoxical Rally Gets Logical After Retail Sales MBS Recap Matthew Grah...

Fri, February 14, 4:53 PM

Best Levels of The Week After Downbeat Data - Fri, February 14, 4:53 PM

What a difference the past two mornings have made for a bond market that was seemingly on the ropes on Wednesday. After yesterday's paradoxical (though, ultimately rational) rally in response to ...

Fri, February 14, 1:33 PM

Bonds Rallying After Weak Retail Sales Data - Fri, February 14, 1:33 PM

Retail Sales -0.4 vs 0.3 f'cast, 0.4 prev Retail Sales excluding autos -0.4 vs 0.3 f'cast, 0.7 prev Import Prices 0.3 vs 0.4 f'cast, 0.2 prev Bonds b...

Thu, February 13, 9:36 PM

What's Up With Today's Paradoxical Bond Rally? - Thu, February 13, 9:36 PM

MBS Recap What's Up With Today's Paradoxical Bond Rally? MBS Recap Matthew Graham ...

Thu, February 13, 2:07 PM

Decent Start Despite Higher Annual Producer Prices - Thu, February 13, 2:07 PM

This morning's econ data included weekly jobless claims, which came in roughly in line with forecasts, and the Producer Price Index (PPI) which was a bit different. The month over month cha...

Wed, February 12, 9:50 PM

CPI Came in HOT and Bonds Reacted Logically - Wed, February 12, 9:50 PM

MBS Recap CPI Came in HOT and Bonds Reacted Logically MBS Recap Matthew Graham | 4...

Wed, February 12, 4:25 PM

Bonds Obliterated (Relatively) by Sharply Higher Inflation - Wed, February 12, 4:25 PM

We know that bonds take a majority of their economic data cues from two reports: NFP and CPI. We knew that today's CPI was critically important in commenting on the potential "pause" of infl...

Wed, February 12, 1:34 PM

Inflation Much Higher Than Expected. Bonds Tanking - Wed, February 12, 1:34 PM

Core Monthly CPI 0.4 vs 0.3 f'cast, 0.2 prev unrounded, 0.446 Core annual CPI 3.3 vs 3.1 f'cast, 3.2 prev A 0.2% "miss" in annual CPI is quite large and it ...

Tue, February 11, 8:59 PM

What to Expect From Wednesday's Inflation Data - Tue, February 11, 8:59 PM

MBS Recap What to Expect From Wednesday's Inflation Data MBS Recap Matthew Graham ...

Tue, February 11, 4:10 PM

Bonds Retreat to Recent Range Ahead of Auctions, Powell, CPI - Tue, February 11, 4:10 PM

With Tokyo closed for a holiday, overnight Treasury trading was limited to futures markets until 2am ET. Yields opened about 1bp higher in Europe and then drifted gradually higher into...

Mon, February 10, 9:21 PM

Little Changed After Early Rally and Steady Selling - Mon, February 10, 9:21 PM

MBS Recap Little Changed After Early Rally and Steady Selling MBS Recap Matthew Gr...

Mon, February 10, 5:58 PM

MBS Down an Eighth From Highs - Mon, February 10, 5:58 PM

Bonds rallied until about 10:45am and have been pulling back since then. MBS are now exactly an eighth of a point below the highs. Reprices aren't especially likely considering the hi...

Mon, February 10, 5:02 PM

More Tariff Headlines But Stocks and Bonds Are Both Stronger - Mon, February 10, 5:02 PM

Perhaps the most notable market-related headline over the weekend was Trump's pre-announcement of 25% tariffs on steel and aluminum (in addition to existing tariffs). The comments were made on Su...

Fri, February 7, 8:00 PM

Minimal Selling Leaves Focus on CPI - Fri, February 7, 8:00 PM

MBS Recap Minimal Selling Leaves Focus on CPI MBS Recap Matthew Graham | 1:14 PM ...

Fri, February 7, 3:15 PM

Why Are Bonds Not Liking The 143k vs 170k NFP? - Fri, February 7, 3:15 PM

As always, the jobs report matters. Today, we're seeing an obvious reaction to a fairly minimal miss (143k vs 170k f'cast in the headline job count). If that was the only data point in the report...

Fri, February 7, 1:34 PM

Payrolls Come in Weaker, Unemployment Stronger, Bonds Losing Ground - Fri, February 7, 1:34 PM

Nonfarm Payrolls 143k vs 170k f'cast, 256k prev, revised to 307k Unemployment Rate 4.0 vs 4.1 f'cast, 4.1 prev Participation Rate 62.6 vs 62.5 prev Al...

Thu, February 6, 8:31 PM

Placeholder Day Ahead of Jobs Report - Thu, February 6, 8:31 PM

MBS Recap Placeholder Day Ahead of Jobs Report MBS Recap Matthew Graham | 3:28 PM ...

Thu, February 6, 2:42 PM

Consolidation Ahead of Jobs Report (Which Still Matters) - Thu, February 6, 2:42 PM

Coming off yesterday's solid rally, the bond market underwent a modest correction in the overnight session. Most of the gains remain intact, but the bounce makes a case for a short term yie...

Thu, February 6, 1:39 PM

Slightly Weaker Overnight. No Major Impact From Data - Thu, February 6, 1:39 PM

Jobless Claims 219k vs 213k f'cast, 208k prev Bonds were very gently weaker in the overnight session and unaffected by any headlines or events. There's been just a small am...

Wed, February 5, 9:03 PM

Nice Win For Bonds With Help From Data - Wed, February 5, 9:03 PM

MBS Recap Nice Win For Bonds With Help From Data MBS Recap Matthew Graham | 4:02 P...

Wed, February 5, 8:07 PM

MBS Still Much Stronger, But Down Over an Eighth From Highs - Wed, February 5, 8:07 PM

This is one of those "heads-up" updates that will mean different things to different people depending on the lenders involved. MBS are still up more than a quarter point on the day and 10yr yi...

Wed, February 5, 3:40 PM

Making Headway on ISM Data, and Lesser Supporting Actors - Wed, February 5, 3:40 PM

To say the very least, there are more moving pieces to consider at the moment when it comes to the narrative guiding volatility and momentum in the bond market. Tariff and policy-related he...

Wed, February 5, 1:27 PM

No Major Reaction to ADP Data - Wed, February 5, 1:27 PM

ADP Employment 183k vs 150k f'cast, 122k prev Bonds were moderately stronger overnight and are little-changed despite the modestly higher ADP reading. 10yr yields are d...

Tue, February 4, 9:39 PM

Bonds Rally Back to Prevailing Range - Tue, February 4, 9:39 PM

MBS Recap Bonds Rally Back to Prevailing Range MBS Recap Matthew Graham | 4:38 PM ...

Tue, February 4, 3:32 PM

Recovering Overnight Losses With Help From JOLTS and in Spite of Oil Price Bounce - Tue, February 4, 3:32 PM

Bonds initially drifted into slightly weaker territory in the overnight session, but began bouncing back just after 9am ET. All this in spite of a quick spike in oil prices on an announceme...

Mon, February 3, 9:21 PM

In-Range Volatility on Tariff Headlines, But Broadly Sideways - Mon, February 3, 9:21 PM

MBS Recap In-Range Volatility on Tariff Headlines, But Broadly Sideways MBS Recap ...

Mon, February 3, 7:35 PM

Negative Reprice Risk Increasing - Mon, February 3, 7:35 PM

MBS are now down an eighth of a point on the day and 6 ticks (.19) from the most recent high. Most lenders are now seeing at least an eighth of a point of weakness from morning rate sheet p...

Mon, February 3, 7:06 PM

MBS Technically Down an Eighth From Most Recent High - Mon, February 3, 7:06 PM

This is a half-hearted "alert," at best, so we'll classify it as an update. MBS are still generally holding a very flat range on the day. Most of the price action has transpired betwe...

Mon, February 3, 3:45 PM

Making Sense of Bond Market Reaction to Tariffs - Mon, February 3, 3:45 PM

As we discussed heading into the weekend (and the likely official tariff announcement), the only recent, conclusive track record the market has for tariffs is that they cause enough economic cont...

Fri, January 31, 10:01 PM

Reasonably Reserved Reaction to Tariff Headlines - Fri, January 31, 10:01 PM

MBS Recap Reasonably Reserved Reaction to Tariff Headlines MBS Recap Matthew Graha...

Fri, January 31, 7:57 PM

Negative Reprices Becoming More Likely - Fri, January 31, 7:57 PM

As the post-tariff announcement selling continues, 10yr yields are now up 5bps to 4.565 and MBS are down almost a quarter point on the day. Most lenders are seeing at least 5 ticks (.16) of...

Fri, January 31, 6:48 PM

Back to Lows of The Day After Tariff Clarification - Fri, January 31, 6:48 PM

MBS are quickly back down to the lowest levels of the day after the White House clarified the timeline for Mexico and Canada tariff implementation. An earlier news story cited sources as sa...

Fri, January 31, 5:16 PM

Temporary Volatility After As-Expected PCE Data - Fri, January 31, 5:16 PM

This morning's PCE inflation data was in line with expectations with the annual core PCE price index coming in at 2.8% and the monthly core coming in at 0.2%. The initial reaction was weake...

Fri, January 31, 1:37 PM

Slightly Weaker After PCE Comes in on The Screws - Fri, January 31, 1:37 PM

Core PCE, MM 0.2 vs 0.2 f'cast, 0.1 prev Core PCE, YY 2.8 vs 2.8 f'cast, 2.8 prev Employment Cost Index 0.9 vs 0.9 f'cast, 0.8 prev The Fed's inflatio...

Thu, January 30, 9:41 PM

Solid Showing In Spite of Data and Uncertainty - Thu, January 30, 9:41 PM

MBS Recap Solid Showing In Spite of Data and Uncertainty MBS Recap Matthew Graham ...

Thu, January 30, 5:09 PM

Stronger Start + Early Weakness - Thu, January 30, 5:09 PM

Bonds rallied in overnight trading. The move was exceptionally linear, without any obvious regard for movement in equities or European bonds. Yields were at session lows ahead of the 8:30am data,...

Thu, January 30, 4:01 PM

MBS Moving Into Negative Territory - Thu, January 30, 4:01 PM

Bonds were holding fairly flat this morning, but began to sell a bit just after 10:35am. MBS are now down 1 tick (.03) on the day and 6 ticks (.19) from the AM highs. Most lenders didn't pr...

Thu, January 30, 1:36 PM

Overnight Gains Cooling a Bit After Data - Thu, January 30, 1:36 PM

GDP Q4 2.3 vs 2.6 f'cast, 3.1 prev PCE prices 2.5 vs 2.5 f'cast Jobless Claims 207k vs 220k f'cast, 223k prev To be fair, the overnight gains were alr...

Wed, January 29, 9:26 PM

Uneventful Fed Day, Bonds Eventually Agree - Wed, January 29, 9:26 PM

MBS Recap Uneventful Fed Day, Bonds Eventually Agree MBS Recap Matthew Graham | 4:...

Ethan Brooks

Mortgage Advisor / Branch Manager

Fairway Mortgage

M: (414) 488-0438

ethanbrooks.mortgage

11220 W Burleigh St
Suite 100
Wauwatosa WI 53222

License:

1639987

Ask Me a Question

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Reproduction or redistribution this newsletter, outside of the distribution services provided, is prohibited. Interest rate data provided in this newsletter are national averages. Rate/APR terms may differ. All information provided "as is" for informational purposes only.