There were two key reports at the start of trading today. The 815am ADP data was fairly forgettable, coming in at 104k vs 75k f'cast, and -23k previously. This is well within a range ...
Core PCE Prices QoQ Final (Q2)
2.5% vs 2.3% f'cast, prev 3.5%
GDP (Q2)
3.0% vs 2.4% f'cast, prev -0.5%
GDP Deflator (Q2)
2.0% vs 2.2% f'cast, prev 3.8%
G...
ADP Employment
104k vs 75k f'cast, -23k prev
In addition to having about a 50% chance to correlate with the odds for the big jobs report to follow suit, ADP was only mildly stro...
There's no mistaking the fact that bonds are trading in a boring, narrowing, sideways range in the bigger picture, nor could anyone claim that today's trading does anything to change that fact.&n...
Given that a bilateral trade deal between the U.S. and EU was announced over the weekend, markets haven't moved much at all in response. 10yr yields were briefly lower overnight and are now incon...
Bonds were initially stronger, then weaker in the overnight session. There was a bit of additional selling in the first hour, but none of it corresponded with the 8:30am Durable Goods data....
Jobless claims data continues to defy a majority of other labor market metrics in showing a remarkable lack of any signs of softening. In fact, the 4 week average is now at a 13 week low.&n...
Take it with a grain of salt as it's being reported by the FT, but...
BRUSSELS COULD AGREE TO THE SO-CALLED RECIPROCAL LEVIES TO AVOID THE US PRESIDENT’S THREAT TO RAISE THEM TO 30 PER C...
The analytical theme this week has been to observe the market movement and then go scrambling for justification. Such is the nature of a week without any actionable econ data. This morning'...
While stock market volatility may be a drop in the bucket in the bigger picture, earnings season tends to increase volume and liquidity . This can spill over to the bond market in unpredic...
This is more of a heads-up than a true reprice alert. MBS are still up an eighth on the day and are only down 2 ticks (.06) from most lenders' rate sheet print times. But any lenders ...
It seems like only 2 weeks ago (because it was) that we encountered an entire week without any major events on the econ calendar. The present week is not much different. Scheduled speeches from F...
At the end of a week with a few big ticket economic reports and unexpected headline-induced volatility, who wouldn't like a break? Friday's calendar offers respite with only Consumer Sentim...
This is more of a heads-up than a true "alert." MBS are now unchanged on the day and down an eighth of a point from AM highs. Some lenders priced during those highs and the jumpiest a...
There were multiple economic reports on tap this morning (4 of them in the 8:30am slot), but the headliner on a Retail Sales day is almost always going to be Retail Sales! In today's case, it cam...
TRUMP LIKELY TO FIRE POWELL SOON, WHITE HOUSE OFFICIAL SAYS OFFICIAL CAUTIONS THERE IS NO EXACT TIMELINE
The newswires above are causing a huge explosion of volume in the bond market with the...
Tuesday's CPI reaction was frustrating. Bonds rallied for an hour only to sell off for the rest of the day starting at 9:30am. Things are off to a different sort of start today. PPI was a b...
Lenders who priced after the initial selling at 9:30am were dealing with MBS that were roughly unchanged on the day. Since then, we've fallen another 6 ticks (.19)--more than enough for a j...
Bonds had already leveled off after a fairly tame initial CPI rally, but they've quickly erased all of the AM gains after the 9:30am NYSE open. There is no new headline or event driving the...
If market watchers get out their magnifying glasses, they can certainly find some evidence of tariffs impacting inflation in various goods, but those goods are such a small part of the overall CP...
Core MM CPI
0.228 vs 0.3 f'cast, 0.1 prev
Core YY CPI
2.9 vs 3.0 f'cast, 2.8 prev
Headline MM CPI
0.3 vs 0.3 f'cast, 0.1 prev
Although the unrounded n...
It's been an interesting morning for bonds inside the broader sideways context. Yields fell at 9:30am, all the way into positive territory, briefly. Those gains reversed in the past 25 minut...
Monday is proving to be a good candidate for a bonus summertime weekend day so far. Volumes and volatility were low overnight and trading levels are inconsequentially weaker after. There was a sm...
There hasn't been any big, new push toward lower levels in MBS, but rather a slow grind to the weakest levels of the day. One can never be sure what's running through lenders' minds at times like...
In terms of news that seems like it should be important, the biggest overnight development was the announcement of a 35% tariff on Canadian imports starting August 1st (up from the previously-sla...
You would be hard pressed to find a week with less to offer in terms of scheduled economic data. In fact, it's not an overstatement to say that regular old weekly jobless claims data was th...
Jobless Claims
227k vs 235k f'cast, 232k prev
Continued Claims
1965k vs 1980k f'cast, 1955k prev
Any bond traders waiting for employment data to show signs of dete...
Anyone who's spent much time around MBS Live knows about our favorite mantra regarding predictions. Specifically, they are for suckers --at least in the context of predicting future intere...
Amid a complete absence of actionable economic data in the new week, stocks and bonds have been left to focus on new developments on the tariff front. It seems like only yesterday that the "90 da...
Fresh off the rally reversal courtesy of last week's jobs report, the bond market now finds itself in a virtually data-free week with little else to inspire big departures from prevailing levels....
Apart from the fact that this morning's jobs report contrasted starkly from the slew of anecdotal evidence suggesting a weaker labor market in June, the morning has proceeded almost exactly as ex...
