MBS and Treasury Markets Archive

Moody's Pulls Pin And Walks Away With 10 Minutes Left to Trade - Fri, May 16, 9:26 PM

MBS Recap Moody's Pulls Pin And Walks Away With 10 Minutes Left to Trade MBS Recap ...

Fri, May 16, 8:56 PM

Losing More Ground After Moody's Downgrade - Fri, May 16, 8:56 PM

This news isn't as big as it may sound but Moody's just downgraded the US credit rating to Aa1 from AAA. In a statement, Moody's said "we recognize the US' significant economic & financial st...

Fri, May 16, 7:01 PM

Negative Reprice Risk Increasing Slightly - Fri, May 16, 7:01 PM

Lenders who have not already repriced for the worse are slightly more likely to be considering it. MBS are now down nearly an eighth of a point on the day and a quarter point from the AM hi...

Fri, May 16, 2:42 PM

Down Just Over an Eighth From AM Highs - Fri, May 16, 2:42 PM

After a decent little overnight rally, bonds began having second thoughts at the 9:30am NYSE open. Notably, this is the 4th straight day where yields moved higher after 9:30am (rotation, an...

Fri, May 16, 2:34 PM

Coasting Into The Weekend With Little Regard For Data - Fri, May 16, 2:34 PM

One might assume that an economic report like Import Prices would carry a lot of weight in light of the news cycle or that the highest 1yr inflation expectations since 1981 in the Consumer Sentim...

Thu, May 15, 8:24 PM

Today's Gains Help Us Understand Yesterday's Losses - Thu, May 15, 8:24 PM

MBS Recap Today's Gains Help Us Understand Yesterday's Losses MBS Recap Matthew Gr...

Thu, May 15, 1:58 PM

A "No Whammies" Rally For Bonds After Data and Powell - Thu, May 15, 1:58 PM

This morning's market action is quickly helping us understand the enigmatic trading seen yesterday (i.e. a sell-off without any great scapegoats). Retail sales' control group was well below...

Thu, May 15, 12:41 PM

Minimal Response to Big Data Glut - Thu, May 15, 12:41 PM

Retail Sales 0.1 vs 0.0 f'cast Retail Sales Control Group -0.2 vs 0.3 f'cast, 0.5 prev Core PPI Monthly -0.4 vs 0.3 f'cast, 0.4 prev Core PPI Annual ...

Wed, May 14, 10:09 PM

(RESEND, Updated Video) Another "Just Because" Sell Off - Wed, May 14, 10:09 PM

MBS Recap Another "Just Because" Sell Off MBS Recap Matthew Graham | 5:07 PM ...

Wed, May 14, 9:08 PM

Another "Just Because" Sell Off - Wed, May 14, 9:08 PM

MBS Recap Another "Just Because" Sell Off MBS Recap Matthew Graham | 5:07 PM ...

Wed, May 14, 7:11 PM

One More Alert For The Day - Wed, May 14, 7:11 PM

After holding fairly flat for the past 3 hours, bonds just ratcheted a few more ticks/bps weaker at the 3pm CME close. MBS were briefly down 3/8ths, but currently down a bit less than...

Wed, May 14, 5:01 PM

Negative Reprice Risk Increasing - Wed, May 14, 5:01 PM

Bonds tried to bounce just after the noon hour, after 10yr yields topped out just over 4.52, but they've slipped back to that ceiling just now (and briefly broke higher). MBS are following a s...

Wed, May 14, 3:22 PM

Down More Than an Eighth - Wed, May 14, 3:22 PM

Bonds have been selling fairly steadily so far this morning, but due to an unfortunately-timed bounce in MBS, many lenders are now seeing prices that are more than an eighth of a point lower sinc...

Wed, May 14, 3:13 PM

Where is The Next Move Coming From? - Wed, May 14, 3:13 PM

It's a potentially frustrating time for bond watchers. The rules have already changed in a big way to accommodate the new wild card presented by tariff policy, and it seems like there have b...

Tue, May 13, 9:07 PM

Bonds End Almost Perfectly Flat - Tue, May 13, 9:07 PM

MBS Recap Bonds End Almost Perfectly Flat MBS Recap Matthew Graham | 5:05 PM ...

Tue, May 13, 6:20 PM

Just a Bit Weaker and a Bit More Reprice Risk - Tue, May 13, 6:20 PM

This is an amplification of the previous alert as bonds continue to struggle to push back against AM weakness. 10yr yields are up 3.2bps to the highs of the day at 4.502. MBS are down an...

Tue, May 13, 2:49 PM

Stock Gains Creating Bond Pain After Flat Response to CPI - Tue, May 13, 2:49 PM

Heading into the session, we knew there was a high bar for CPI to have a positive influence on bonds with the future tariff landscape reducing the relevance of current price data, but the results...

Tue, May 13, 2:09 PM

MBS Down Just Over an Eighth From Highs - Tue, May 13, 2:09 PM

Bonds began losing ground at the start of the 9:30am NYSE open and losses accelerated just now after several tariff-related headlines. CHINA GOVT REPEATS TARIFF CUT REACHED IN TRADE TALK...

Tue, May 13, 12:38 PM

CPI Comes in Lower. Bonds Aren't Mad - Tue, May 13, 12:38 PM

Monthly Core CPI 0.237 vs 0.3 f'cast, 0.1 prev Annual Core CPI 2.8 vs 2.8 f'cast, 2.8 prev The market wasn't expecting fireworks from today's CPI and despite a brie...

Mon, May 12, 9:07 PM

Is All News Bad News For Bonds? Will CPI Matter? - Mon, May 12, 9:07 PM

MBS Recap Is All News Bad News For Bonds? Will CPI Matter? MBS Recap Matthew Graha...

Mon, May 12, 8:11 PM

Negative Reprice Risk Increasing - Mon, May 12, 8:11 PM

Negative reprices are now becoming more of a risk (or likelihood, for some lenders) with MBS down just over 3/8ths on the day and a quarter point from mid-day highs. 10yr yields ar...

Mon, May 12, 6:20 PM

Down More Than an Eighth From Highs - Mon, May 12, 6:20 PM

Bonds have been losing ground in the PM hours at a fairly gradual pace. 10yr yields are just now getting close to the AM highs, up 7.5bps at 4.46%. MBS are back in line with the AM lows ...

Mon, May 12, 3:01 PM

Yields Jump After Another 90 Day Tariff Pause - Mon, May 12, 3:01 PM

10yr yields were up 8bps overnight to the highest levels since April 11th after weekend trade talks between the US and China resulted in significant reductions in tariffs for a period of 90 days ...

Fri, May 9, 9:07 PM

Flat Friday, But Volatility Risks Remain - Fri, May 9, 9:07 PM

MBS Recap Flat Friday, But Volatility Risks Remain MBS Recap Matthew Graham | 5:07...

Fri, May 9, 7:14 PM

Heads Up: Down an Eighth of a Point From Highs - Fri, May 9, 7:14 PM

Bonds have been almost perfectly flat all day, and we'd still refer to today as flat in the bigger picture. But amidst that broader sideways grind, MBS have slowly inched down from the AM high...

Fri, May 9, 3:04 PM

Lots of Fed Speakers, But The Focus is on China - Fri, May 9, 3:04 PM

A glance at today's economic calendar quickly reveals that Fed speeches are the only game in town in terms of scheduled events. But what can the Fed say that we didn't already hear from Pow...

Thu, May 8, 8:51 PM

Surprisingly Big Sell Off Relative to The Inspiration - Thu, May 8, 8:51 PM

MBS Recap Surprisingly Big Sell Off Relative to The Inspiration MBS Recap Matthew ...

Thu, May 8, 5:58 PM

Negative Reprices Becoming Likely - Thu, May 8, 5:58 PM

MBS are now down 14 ticks (.44) and 10yr yields are up 10.3bps. Lenders are seeing at least a quarter point of weakness vs rate sheet print times. As such, negative reprices are becoming li...

Thu, May 8, 3:58 PM

More New Lows - Thu, May 8, 3:58 PM

Amid the US/UK trade deal press conference and Trump's touting of the stock market, stocks are ripping higher and bond yields are following (even if not "ripping"). 10s are now up 6bps a...

Thu, May 8, 3:00 PM

Slow Start, Two-Way Trading After Data - Thu, May 8, 3:00 PM

Bonds mostly lost ground in the overnight session, and then lost just a bit more ground after the 8:30am econ data. This consisted of Jobless Claims coming in slightly lower than forec...

Thu, May 8, 2:37 PM

MBS Down to New Lows - Thu, May 8, 2:37 PM

Bonds have been losing ground a bit more quickly in the past few minutes with 10yr yields up 5bps to new highs of 4.32%. MBS are down 6 ticks (.19) to new lows for the day. Due to the pr...

Wed, May 7, 8:34 PM

Just as Underwhelming as Expected - Wed, May 7, 8:34 PM

MBS Recap Just as Underwhelming as Expected MBS Recap Matthew Graham | 4:33 PM ...

Wed, May 7, 6:49 PM

Losing Some Ground on Powell's Latest Comment - Wed, May 7, 6:49 PM

It's hard to say exactly which comment did the trick, but it was probably this one: Fed's Powell: We won't make progress on goals this year if tariffs stay or this one (in response to w...

Wed, May 7, 6:04 PM

No Major Reaction to Fed Announcement Text - Wed, May 7, 6:04 PM

Fed added a line about net export swings affecting data Fed says uncertainty around outlook has increased further Fed says risks of higher unemployment and higher inflation have risen ...

Wed, May 7, 6:00 PM

Here's What Changed in The New Fed Announcement - Wed, May 7, 6:00 PM

Recent Although swings in net exports have affected the data, recent indicators suggest that economic activity has continued to expand at a solid pace. The unemployment rate has stabilized at a...

Wed, May 7, 3:04 PM

Not Expecting Fireworks From The Fed - Wed, May 7, 3:04 PM

Wednesday begins with bonds battling back from modest overnight weakness (now moving into modestly stronger territory), but not for any particular reason. End of year Fed Funds Rate expectations ...

Tue, May 6, 8:10 PM

10yr Auction to The Rescue - Tue, May 6, 8:10 PM

MBS Recap 10yr Auction to The Rescue MBS Recap Matthew Graham | 4:09 PM ...

Tue, May 6, 5:24 PM

Moving Into Positive Territory After 10yr Auction - Tue, May 6, 5:24 PM

10yr Treasury Auction 4.342 vs 4.354 expectations (1.2bps beat) Bid to cover: 2.60 vs 2.48 average Quick deep dive on Treasury auction info (more details in the primer ...

Tue, May 6, 2:37 PM

2-Way Trading, Slightly Weaker Start - Tue, May 6, 2:37 PM

Bonds have been on both sides of unchanged so far today. The overnight session began with slightly higher yields followed by a gradual rally. By 9am ET, bonds were modestly stronger on the ...

Mon, May 5, 8:29 PM

Selling Spree Continues, But Gently - Mon, May 5, 8:29 PM

MBS Recap Selling Spree Continues, But Gently MBS Recap Matthew Graham | 4:29 PM ...

Mon, May 5, 2:29 PM

Another ISM Report That Wasn't Weak Enough to Help Bonds - Mon, May 5, 2:29 PM

The ISM Services PMI is this morning's key data, and arguably, the most relevant economic report of the week. Last week's ISM Manufacturing data wasn't strong, but it wasn't nearly as weak as tra...

Mon, May 5, 2:05 PM

Losing Ground After ISM Data - Mon, May 5, 2:05 PM

ISM Services 51.6 vs 50.6 f'cast, 50.8 prev ISM Prices 65.1 vs 60.9 prev ISM Employment 49.0 vs 46.2 prev Whether it's the higher headline or th...

Mon, May 5, 1:02 PM

Slightly Weaker After Corporate Issuance Announcement - Mon, May 5, 1:02 PM

Bonds were flat to slightly stronger in the overnight session, but lost ground over the past half hour following the announcement of corporate bond offering from Apple. Past examples of s...

Fri, May 2, 8:17 PM

Data Dependence is Back, But Not in A Fun Way - Fri, May 2, 8:17 PM

MBS Recap Data Dependence is Back, But Not in A Fun Way MBS Recap Matthew Graham |...

Fri, May 2, 3:37 PM

Down More Than an Eighth from 10am Levels - Fri, May 2, 3:37 PM

10am is a common time of day for mortgage lenders to be releasing or preparing to release the first rate sheets of the day. As such, it's worth mentioning when MBS drop more than eighth of ...

Fri, May 2, 2:29 PM

Reasonably Strong Jobs Report. Reasonably Weak Reaction in Bonds - Fri, May 2, 2:29 PM

It is shaping up to be a straightforward morning for the bond market. There was a justified and logical amount of anticipation for today's numbers and the reaction is just as logical. Specificall...

Fri, May 2, 12:32 PM

First Move is Weaker After Higher Payrolls - Fri, May 2, 12:32 PM

Nonfarm Payrolls 177k vs 130k f'cast, 185k prev last month revised down from 228 Unemployment Rate 4.2 vs 4.2 f'cast, 4.2 prev Participation rate up 0.1%...

Thu, May 1, 8:19 PM

Bonds Brace For More Data-Driven Volatility - Thu, May 1, 8:19 PM

MBS Recap Bonds Brace For More Data-Driven Volatility MBS Recap Matthew Graham | 4...

Thu, May 1, 4:31 PM