The interest rate data provided in this newsletter are national averages from independent data sources. Rate/APR terms may differ from those listed above based on the creditworthiness of the borrower. All information provided "as is" for informational purposes only, not intended for trading purposes or financial advice.
With no massive escalation in Iran over the weekend, oil prices trickled only modestly higher during Asian trading hours and began to recover during European hours. Early domestic trading kept th...
MBS are down more than an eighth on the day and more than a quarter point from most lenders' rate sheet print times. Negative reprices are now likely.
Bond yields and oil prices have bot...
Oil prices and bond yields are spiking a bit after Trump comments that suggested an uncertain timeframe for the Iran war.
MBS are now unchanged on the day, down 6 ticks (.19) from some le...
There's a high bar for econ data to have any impact on bonds these days and that's especially true of inflation reports like this morning's PCE. Thankfully, no one needs to make a case for PCE ha...
If you haven't seen a negative reprice yet, you probably will.
MBS are now down nearly 3/8ths of a point on the day and more than a quarter point from most lenders' rate sheet prin...
The bond market doesn't look like it can catch a break as long as war persists in Iran. If it's not oil, it's fertilizer, nat gas, military spending, or a host of other inflationary knock-on effe...
After more headlines regarding mines in the Strait of Hormuz as well as the closure of the Strait, bonds are selling off a bit more. The move is led by the short end with Fed Funds Futures ...
The following newswire kicked off a quick bout of selling in bonds:
TRUMP: STOPPING IRAN IS GREATER INTEREST TO ME THAN OIL PRICES
It was joined shortly thereafter by (also not great for bo...
MBS are now down 7 ticks (.22) from the highs seen near rate sheet print times. Lenders who priced at or before 10am are increasingly likely to be considering negative reprices, althou...
Bonds have been losing ground gradually since 10am and are now at the weakest levels of the day with 10yr yields up 4bps at 4.20%.
MBS are down exactly an eighth of a point from their AM...
There was a very high bar for today's CPI to cause any serious market reaction due to all the new inflationary impulses that may be created by record volatility in energy markets that hasn't yet ...
MBS are back in line with the lows seen at the time of the last alert (actually, just a hair weaker). This is 9 ticks (.28) of weakness on the day and 7 ticks (.22) from intraday highs. Jumpier l...
For those on a fence after the last alert, this is a heads up that bonds are bouncing back reasonably well with 10yr yields now back in the day's pre-sell-off range, up 3.9bps at 4.134.
MBS ar...
Here's the newswire that lines up with the volatility (there could be another market mover in play, but if so, it's not overt):
U.S. INTELLIGENCE ASSETS HAVE BEGUN TO SEE INDICATIONS IRAN IS T...
One major milestone in anyone's market-watching journey is when they learn that "the close" (close of business, closing bell, etc.) means different things to different people. If we consider elec...
TRUMP SAYS “I THINK THE (IRAN) WAR IS VERY COMPLETE, PRETTY MUCH" - CBS REPORTER ON X, CITING AN INTERVIEW Following that newswires, bond yields have dropped 3.3bps to 4.096. Stocks have s...
Since the outbreak of the military operation in Iran, there have been varying levels of spillover from rising oil prices to the bond market. There have been notable pockets of time where the...
We don't post updates to let you know when MBS are improving--only when there's negative reprice risk.
As such, this alert needs some context, because there was a nice recovery in mid-da...
It's shaping up to be a frustrating day market watchers. Decades of experience tells us that bonds should rally fairly sharply on a day where nonfarm payrolls miss the forecast by the widest marg...
It's not a reprice concern (except for lenders with overnight price protection) because lenders aren't yet out with rates, but MBS are now at new lows for the day, down 6 ticks (.19). 10yr ...
Average earnings mm (Feb)
0.4% vs 0.3% f'cast, 0.4% prev
Non Farm Payrolls (Feb)
-92K vs 59K f'cast, 130K prev
Participation Rate (Feb)
62.0% vs -- f'cast, 62...
MBS are down nearly a quarter point on the day and just over an eighth of a point from intraday highs. Those highs arrived around the time that some lenders were issuing rates for the day. ...
The bond market has already shown an indifference to this week's econ data as a market mover (even though we expect that to change with tomorrow's jobs report). This morning, however, the trend c...
Given the time of day, this is more of a heads-up for most lenders (i.e. not every lender reprices this late). Additionally, the weakness in MBS is fairly minimal and the market movement ha...
After 2 days of much higher volatility at the open, bonds are roughly unchanged so far this morning and the overnight session was noticeably calmer. Today's big ticket data includes ADP Empl...
Bonds sold off again overnight with 10yr yields now challenging the 4.10% technical level in early trading. MBS are down another 3/8ths, roughly. And there's stronger correlation with higher oil ...
Selling has been steady, and there are no new market movers causing additional selling, but the gradual decline now brings 5.0 UMBS down an eighth of a point from AM highs. Those highs coincided ...
Spoiler alert: it's not Iran. And this morning's yields are the 2nd lowest in more than 3 months behind last Friday. Last Friday was also a month-end trading day with a mini snowball rally that d...
We'd already discussed the fact that PPI has fallen by the wayside as a relevant market mover for bonds despite one or two instances of relevance nearly 2 years ago when bonds were desperate for ...
This is the problem with narrow trading ranges. Yesterday, yields were safely inside a narrow range near long-term lows. Today, they're challenging the lowest levels since November. Any time we'r...
Bonds have been selling slowly and steadily in the PM hours. While the pace of weakness isn't extreme, MBS are now down an eighth of a point from the highs of the day. Fortunately, pr...
Some days, there's a lot to say about what's going on in the bond market. Other days are like today. Analysts have to lean on themes like trading ranges, technicals , and the asset allocation tr...
Volume and volatility is lower this morning compared to yesterday, but the same theme of risk aversion looks to be in play, probably. Why "probably?" Because the theme in question (risk ave...
Bonds are starting the new week in slightly stronger territory, but still well inside the prevailing trading range. There were no standout market movers over the weekend although tariff and trade...
MBS Recap
Tariff Ruling Tried (And Failed) to Steal The Show
MBS Recap Matthew Gra...
A message from Northeast Financial LLC:
The interest rate data provided in this newsletter are national averages from independent data sources. Rate/APR terms may differ from those listed above based on the creditworthiness of the borrower. All information provided "as is" for informational purposes only, not intended for trading purposes or financial advice.
