MBS and Treasury Markets Archive

Markets Hit by Glut of Escalation Headlines - Mon, 8:08 PM

MBS Recap Markets Hit by Glut of Escalation Headlines MBS Recap Matthew Graham | 4...

Mon, 4:21 PM

Negative Reprices Becoming More Likely - Mon, 4:21 PM

The market is actively reacting to a swath of war-related headlines that all generally speak to the notion of escalation in the Iran war. Bond yields are moving up with oil prices, but are also e...

Mon, 3:34 PM

MBS Now Down 3/8ths on The Day - Mon, 3:34 PM

Additional incremental weakness after headlines regarding Iran attacking UAE (including a fire at an oil export terminal). MBS are now down just over 3/8ths of a point on the day, more than a qua...

Mon, 2:09 PM

Weaker Start. Bonds Not Recovering With Oil So Far - Mon, 2:09 PM

The overnight and early domestic trading hours have brought a mix of familiar and unfamiliar patterns. Up until roughly 8:30am, we saw a very familiar correlation between oil prices and bond yiel...

Mon, 1:51 PM

MBS Down Just Over an Eighth - Mon, 1:51 PM

Most lenders were not yet out with rates for the day when MBS were last at the highs, but prices are now down just over an eighth of a point from those highs and a quarter point versus Friday's c...

Fri, May 1, 7:27 PM

Some Volatility Surrounding Headlines, But Not Much Change - Fri, May 1, 7:27 PM

MBS Recap Some Volatility Surrounding Headlines, But Not Much Change MBS Recap Mat...

Fri, May 1, 3:07 PM

Down Over an Eighth From The Highs - Fri, May 1, 3:07 PM

This alert only applies to lenders who priced or repriced after 10:20am ET. MBS are down 6 ticks (.19) since then. In some similar cases in the past, lenders who rushed to reprice for the better ...

Fri, May 1, 2:34 PM

Rallying on Peace Hopes and Weaker Data - Fri, May 1, 2:34 PM

Bonds were almost perfectly flat during the overnight session along with oil and stock futures. Morning trading ushered in more volatility as the war-related headlines began to heat up. The most ...

Thu, April 30, 8:29 PM

Bonds Recover With Oil, But Not Completely - Thu, April 30, 8:29 PM

MBS Recap Bonds Recover With Oil, But Not Completely MBS Recap Matthew Graham | 4:...

Thu, April 30, 1:40 PM

Oil Dropping, Bonds Rallying, Data Largely Ignored - Thu, April 30, 1:40 PM

From an analytical standpoint, it's hard to offer new and interesting insights when the order of any given day is simply to observe broad war-related sentiment via oil prices. From there, i...

Wed, April 29, 8:42 PM

Today's Weakness Mostly War-Related With Small Boost From Fed - Wed, April 29, 8:42 PM

MBS Recap Today's Weakness Mostly War-Related With Small Boost From Fed MBS Recap ...

Wed, April 29, 6:12 PM

Slightly Weaker After Fed Announcement - Wed, April 29, 6:12 PM

Bonds are just a hair weaker than they were before the Fed Announcement, but not for any reasons that are obvious in the announcement itself. The most notable development was 4 dissentin...

Wed, April 29, 6:00 PM

Here's What Changed in The New Fed Announcement - Wed, April 29, 6:00 PM

Available Recent indicators suggest that economic activity has been expanding at a solid pace. Job gains have remained low, on average, and the unemployment rate has been little changed in re...

Wed, April 29, 2:06 PM

Relatively Abrupt Selling - Wed, April 29, 2:06 PM

MBS are now down 10 ticks (.31) on the day with more than half of that seen since 9am ET. Most lenders were not yet out with rate sheets at that time, but this could be a consideration for ...

Wed, April 29, 1:31 PM

More Losses After Blockade Extension News - Wed, April 29, 1:31 PM

Last night's key news on the war involved reports of Trump telling aides to prepare for a prolonged blockade of Iran. The free flow of oil through Hormuz is the key market mover in this war, so i...

Tue, April 28, 8:15 PM

Modest Gains After Opening Weaker - Tue, April 28, 8:15 PM

MBS Recap Modest Gains After Opening Weaker MBS Recap Matthew Graham | 4:14 PM ...

Tue, April 28, 2:27 PM

Highest Yields in 3 Weeks as US Shuns Iran Proposal - Tue, April 28, 2:27 PM

Bonds sold off slowly and steadily overnight, largely tracing a similarly steady rise in oil prices. The latter is most easily attributed to reports that Trump is not happy with the latest Iran p...

Mon, April 27, 7:51 PM

Modest Weakness, But Range Persists - Mon, April 27, 7:51 PM

MBS Recap Modest Weakness, But Range Persists MBS Recap Matthew Graham | 3:51 PM ...

Mon, April 27, 3:36 PM

Weakest Levels - Mon, April 27, 3:36 PM

Just a heads up that MBS are down 5 ticks (.16) on the day and an eighth of a point from the AM highs. The jumpiest lenders could technically justify a negative reprice. 10yr yields are ...

Mon, April 27, 1:44 PM

Minimal Change Despite Lack of Progress in Peace Talks - Mon, April 27, 1:44 PM

The word of the day is "stalled." You can't get far reading top news stories over the weekend without seeing it in reference to the negotiations that looked at least somewhat possible on Friday a...

Fri, April 24, 8:02 PM

Bonds Finally Trade Something Other Than The War - Fri, April 24, 8:02 PM

MBS Recap Similar Volatility But in a Friendlier Direction MBS Recap Matthew Graha...

Fri, April 24, 2:18 PM

MBS Update:

Erasing Losses After Powell Headlines - Fri, April 24, 2:18 PM

DOJ EXPECTED TO DROP CRIMINAL PROBE OF POWELL, ABC SAYS After that newswire, bonds and Fed Funds Futures are improving independently from stocks/oil/etc. 10yr at lows of day, do...

Fri, April 24, 1:38 PM

Moving Into The Red - Fri, April 24, 1:38 PM

Most lenders are not yet out with rate sheets, but for those with the ability to lock yesterday's rates, this is a heads-up that MBS just moved into negative territory (down about 5 ticks or 0.16...

Fri, April 24, 1:18 PM

War Headline Waiting Game is The Only Game in Town - Fri, April 24, 1:18 PM

Markets were largely flat overnight but volatility picked up just after 7am ET after headlines suggested US/Iran negotiations could resume as early as today. That was good for almost a $4 drop in...

Thu, April 23, 8:43 PM

Volatility Picked Up Despite Lackluster News Quality - Thu, April 23, 8:43 PM

MBS Recap Volatility Picked Up Despite Lackluster News Quality MBS Recap Matthew G...

Thu, April 23, 5:11 PM

MBS Losing Ground on Iran Headlines - Thu, April 23, 5:11 PM

There were several headlines concerning Iran's leadership and negotiation team just now. We'll discuss those more in the recap in order to get this alert out more quickly. Oil/stocks/bonds are...

Thu, April 23, 1:14 PM

Fake Headlines Moving Markets? - Thu, April 23, 1:14 PM

Bonds were almost perfectly flat in the overnight session with yields holding inside a 1.5bp range. Oil prices rose initially, but recovered before the domestic session began. Part of that recove...

Wed, April 22, 8:09 PM

Uncertainty Extended Indefinitely - Wed, April 22, 8:09 PM

MBS Recap Uncertainty Extended Indefinitely MBS Recap Matthew Graham | 4:08 PM ...

Wed, April 22, 4:23 PM

Lows of The Day - Wed, April 22, 4:23 PM

Selling has been slow and steady since the open. This alert doesn't indicate a specifically scary dip in prices. Rather, it's a heads up that the modest selling now accounts for an eighth o...

Wed, April 22, 2:11 PM

Hurrying Up And Waiting - Wed, April 22, 2:11 PM

As a testament to just how confident the market is/was that neither side is overly interested in escalating the Iran war, Tuesday night's ceasefire deadline has come and gone with surprisingly li...

Tue, April 21, 8:15 PM

MBS Update:

Bouncing Back as Trump Extends Ceasefire - Tue, April 21, 8:15 PM

Bonds are right back in line with the levels from before the last alert after the following newswire: TRUMP: EXTEND THE CEASEFIRE UNTIL IRAN PROPOSAL SUBMITTED A few lenders had already rep...

Tue, April 21, 7:56 PM

Weakest Levels After Latest Iran Headlines - Tue, April 21, 7:56 PM

Following news that neither JD Vance nor Iran will attend Wednesday's scheduled talks in Pakistan, oil prices and bond yields are at their highest levels of the day. MBS are now down nea...

Tue, April 21, 7:49 PM

Ceasefire Uncertainty Adds to Losses - Tue, April 21, 7:49 PM

MBS Recap Ceasefire Uncertainty Adds to Losses MBS Recap Matthew Graham | 3:48 PM ...

Tue, April 21, 2:51 PM

Weakest Levels of The Day on New War Headlines - Tue, April 21, 2:51 PM

10yr yields are quickly up 4.4bps to 4.295 and MBS are down a quarter point after headlines regarding Iran having yet to agree to take part in peace talks before tonight's deadline. The ...

Tue, April 21, 1:03 PM

Barely Weaker After Weekly ADP Data (Not Retail Sales) - Tue, April 21, 1:03 PM

Heading into the day, the 8:30am Retail Sales data was the obvious pick among the available economic reports to be a potential market mover. Reality had other ideas... weird ones. After months an...

Mon, April 20, 8:24 PM

Bonds Only Modestly Weaker After New Escalation Over The Weekend - Mon, April 20, 8:24 PM

MBS Recap Bonds Only Modestly Weaker After New Escalation Over The Weekend MBS Recap &nb...

Mon, April 20, 3:05 PM

Weakest Levels. Down an Eighth From Highs - Mon, April 20, 3:05 PM

Bonds are selling off moderately after Trump said a ceasefire extension is unlikely and Hormuz will remain closed until a deal is signed. The bond market reaction hasn't been intense, by any mean...

Mon, April 20, 1:34 PM

Bonds Only Modestly Weaker After New Escalation Over The Weekend - Mon, April 20, 1:34 PM

Heading into the weekend, all indications were about as promising as they have been that the war was heading toward a peaceful conclusion. This was reflected in oil prices and Treasury yields bei...

Fri, April 17, 8:29 PM

AM Gains Mostly Stick Around - Fri, April 17, 8:29 PM

MBS Recap AM Gains Mostly Stick Around MBS Recap Matthew Graham | 4:29 PM ...

Fri, April 17, 6:52 PM

Weakest Levels Since AM Rally; MBS Down an Eighth From Highs - Fri, April 17, 6:52 PM

This alert doesn't necessarily connote any serious negative reprice risk, but it's a heads up for those who were already planning on locking today. If that describes you, there's probably no reas...

Fri, April 17, 1:20 PM

Why Are Bonds Surging This Morning? - Fri, April 17, 1:20 PM

Bonds were modestly and inconsequentially stronger in the overnight session. By 8am, this brought 10yr yields just under 4.30%. Less than an hour later, yields fell to 4.23 and MBS rose ove...

Thu, April 16, 8:26 PM

Volatility Picked Up After a Slow Start - Thu, April 16, 8:26 PM

MBS Recap Volatility Picked Up After a Slow Start MBS Recap Matthew Graham | 4:26 ...

Thu, April 16, 4:49 PM

Negative Reprice Risk Increasing - Thu, April 16, 4:49 PM

MBS are at new lows for the day, down roughly 0.05 from the previous low. This is enough of drop that we could see the first few jumpy lenders pull the trigger on a reprice. Risks are much lower ...

Thu, April 16, 2:04 PM

Down an Eighth From Highs - Thu, April 16, 2:04 PM

This is more of a heads-up alert for now as the quick little selling spree has already leveled off. Causes remain unclear as there are no compelling headlines to link to the move, but it definite...

Thu, April 16, 1:33 PM

Slowest Day in Over a Month. No Reaction to Data - Thu, April 16, 1:33 PM

Thursday has thus far been the slowest and most sideways day since February 24th, before the start of the Iran war. A lull in war-related developments is likely helping. While there are plenty of...

Wed, April 15, 7:59 PM

Very Small Token Pull-Back - Wed, April 15, 7:59 PM

MBS Recap Very Small Token Pull-Back MBS Recap Matthew Graham | 3:58 PM ...

Wed, April 15, 2:34 PM

Bonds Growing Tired of "Game On! Game Off!" News Cycle - Wed, April 15, 2:34 PM

Markets have plenty of war-related headlines to digest at any given moment these days. And while some of those headlines have been the biggest market movers of the month, traders are increasingly...

Tue, April 14, 8:27 PM

Bonds Ultimately Follow Oil's Lead, Heading Lower On War-Related Optimism - Tue, April 14, 8:27 PM

MBS Recap Bonds Ultimately Follow Oil's Lead, Heading Lower War-Related Optimism MBS Recap ...

Tue, April 14, 2:28 PM