The interest rate data provided in this newsletter are national averages from independent data sources. Rate/APR terms may differ from those listed above based on the creditworthiness of the borrower. All information provided "as is" for informational purposes only, not intended for trading purposes or financial advice.
In terms of topline results, CPI was bond friendly with the core at .223 vs .3 and the headline at 0.3 vs 0.4 in monthly terms. Annually, we're running at 3.0% in both metrics, which is hig...
We typically want to see an eighth of a point of weakness in MBS versus either the highs of the day or rate sheet print times in order to send out an alert.
Right now, we're only s...
Everything's relative when it comes to rates being high or low, but let's agree that the past 2 years have relentlessly driven home the notion of an increasingly flat, narrow range that has ...
Think back to October 17th. MBS opened slightly weaker and ended the day down about an eighth of a point. That was the last time we had a weaker start, and there are some parallels to today...
On the one hand, there's not much going on for the bond market these days. The jobs report is a flat-out requirement in terms of informing major changes in momentum. On the other hand, ther...
New week. Same grind. We're waiting (likely for a good while longer) for the government shutdown to end before the most relevant econ data can truly exert influence on the bond market in the big ...
By process of elimination and ongoing forensic efforts, it's becoming more and more clear that yesterday's mystery rally in the short end of the yield curve was a product of liquidity /reserve s...
Starting around 12:15pm ET and accelerating quickly at 12:25pm, bonds began a sharp rally, led quite clearly by the short end of the yield curve and Fed Funds Futures. In this short time, year-en...
There were quite a few economic reports that would have been released this morning were it not for the gov shutdown. OK, well only 3 notable absences, but there would have been a 3 wee...
MBS have quickly moved from the highs of the day to the lows with little apparent provocation. The move is real considering the sympathy in 10yr yields, up from 4.096 to 4.038 in short orde...
Stocks have made a bit of a round trip since last Friday when Trump's tariff comments sparked a big sell-off. Bonds benefited from that at the time. So far this week, stocks have stag...
Bonds are flashing red on the screen (depending on when you look), but even at their weakest levels of the morning, we'd still consider this a stronger start. Reason being: Friday afternoon'...
At the start of the week, we noted Japanese political developments as a key reason for overnight losses on Monday morning. This had to do with Takaichi winning control of Japan's LDP party, ...
MBS are now down 9 ticks (.28) on the day and just over an eighth of a point from the AM price plateau. Some of the jumpiest lenders would be in a position to consider negative reprices.
...
With Jobless Claims on hold due to the shutdown, bonds are forced to endure another data-free morning. The calendar offered a glimmer of hope with a Powell speech, but it was pre-recorded and did...
Bonds are losing ground and are now at the weakest levels of the day ahead of the Fed Minutes release.
MBS are 1 tick lower (.03) lower on the day, but 5 ticks below the AM highs. ...
While there are a smattering of Fed speakers on the calendar today, the morning comments are not likely to have an impact. In fact, the average Fed speech is a forgettable event these days as the...
10yr yields drifted up toward the 4.20% technical level overnight but buyers showed up at the 8:20am CME open. The initial recovery looks more technical in nature. The subsequent buying brought b...
Lenders who priced after 10am are now seeing at least an eighth of a point of weakness in 5.0 UMBS. As such, the jumpier lenders in that crowd could be considering a negative reprice. 10yr ...
On paper, it was supposed to have been a sleepy session for bonds with nothing of note on the econ calendar. But in practice, we're seeing one of the larger instances of overnight selling in mont...
Bonds have been sliding into weaker territory after the 3pm CME close with 10yr yields up 3.8bps at 4.12 and MBS down 6 ticks (.19) on the day.
Any lender that priced before 10:15am is s...
Between 10am and 10:10am, MBS were sideways, so we hesitate to chalk this weakness up to the ISM data. But whatever the underlying motivation (and there may be none, apart from the gradual sellin...
With NFP on hold due to the shutdown, today's ISM Services was our only chance for for data driven volatility in the 2nd half of the week. A big beat/miss in this report is certainly capabl...
As a reminder, economic data published by government entities is on hold during the shutdown. Today, that means no Jobless Claims (also no Factory Orders, but we don't care about that report anyw...
Bonds were already a hair stronger coming into the ADP data, but the results (-32k vs 50k forecast and previous month revised to -3k from 54k) have provided an obvious tailwind. With the governme...
Month-end position squaring is contributing to just a bit more weakness in the bond market. MBS are now down 6 ticks (.19) from AM highs and negative reprices are becoming a stronger possib...
This isn't necessarily a full-blown reprice risk situation--more of a heads up that prices are now an eighth of a point below the AM highs. Those highs began around 10am. Most of the jumpie...
No new news on the probably government shutdown, but betting markets show increased odds, for whatever that's worth. The only reason to watch or care about the shutdown (for bond watching purpose...
Under normal circumstance, we look forward to the first Friday of any given month as the day that the jobs report takes a swing at sending the strongest signal for rates of any monthly economic r...
A message from Northeast Financial LLC:
The interest rate data provided in this newsletter are national averages from independent data sources. Rate/APR terms may differ from those listed above based on the creditworthiness of the borrower. All information provided "as is" for informational purposes only, not intended for trading purposes or financial advice.
