MBS and Treasury Markets Archive

Red Night, Green Morning After Weaker Jobs Data - Thu, July 2, 1:05 PM

Bonds continued drifting gently higher in the overnight session with 10yr yields just barely edging above 4.50% before today's big jobs report (the only calendar event of note before the holiday ...

Wed, July 1, 7:46 PM

Bonds Find Some Solace in Warsh Despite a Bit More Selling - Wed, July 1, 7:46 PM

MBS Recap Bonds Find Some Solace in Warsh Despite a Bit More Selling MBS Recap Mat...

Wed, July 1, 7:22 PM

Down Just Over an Eighth From The Highs - Wed, July 1, 7:22 PM

Bonds hit their highs just after 10am this morning and have been selling slowly since then. The last few minutes bring 5.0 UMBS down 5 ticks (.16) versus those highs. The catch is that "just afte...

Wed, July 1, 1:28 PM

Tuesday Sell-Off Sticking; Warsh and ISM On Deck - Wed, July 1, 1:28 PM

Bonds have added modestly to Tuesday's big quarter-end sell-off (a phenomenon that has nothing to do with the sorts of fundamental developments that dictate a vast majority of market movement). T...

Tue, June 30, 8:07 PM

Negative Reprices Now Likely - Tue, June 30, 8:07 PM

Quarter-end selling continues (although it could be considered "new quarter selling" now that we're past the time of day where traders have marked their close-of-business trading levels for Q2).&...

Tue, June 30, 7:59 PM

Why We Saw Steady Selling All Day - Tue, June 30, 7:59 PM

MBS Recap Why We Saw Steady Selling All Day MBS Recap Matthew Graham | 3:58 PM ...

Tue, June 30, 7:10 PM

Negative Reprice Risk Increasing - Tue, June 30, 7:10 PM

Bonds have been selling slowly and steadily all day. MBS are now down a quarter point in total and roughly 6 ticks (.19) from early lenders' rate sheet print times. Negative reprices are now beco...

Tue, June 30, 5:17 PM

New Lows, Modest Reprice Risk - Tue, June 30, 5:17 PM

MBS are just barely pushing into new lows for the day, down just over an eighth from some lenders' AM rate sheet print times. The jumpier crowd could be closer to considering pulling the tr...

Tue, June 30, 2:13 PM

Slightly More Selling After Job Openings Data - Tue, June 30, 2:13 PM

MBS are now down 6 ticks (.19) on the day and an eighth of a point from the AM highs after a slightly hotter reading on the Job Openings data ( 7.594m vs 7.30m f'cast). 10yr yields are u...

Tue, June 30, 1:21 PM

Data Ramps Up And Another Dash of Quarter-End Trading - Tue, June 30, 1:21 PM

Before looking at trading screens this morning, the first order of business would have been to mention the ramp up in economic calendar activity. While the line item count is respectable, it's re...

Mon, June 29, 7:25 PM

Volatility Risk Ramps Up From Here - Mon, June 29, 7:25 PM

MBS Recap Volatility Risk Ramps Up From Here MBS Recap Matthew Graham | 3:25 PM ...

Mon, June 29, 2:24 PM

3.5-Day Week Starting Out Slow and Flat - Mon, June 29, 2:24 PM

At the risk of jinxing it, Monday is pretty much already in the back as an uneventful start to a holiday-shortened week (early close on Thursday and fully closed on Friday). Bonds were very flat ...

Fri, June 26, 8:51 PM

Early Gains. Flat Afternoon. MBS Underperform - Fri, June 26, 8:51 PM

MBS Recap Early Gains. Flat Afternoon. MBS Underperform MBS Recap Matthew Graham |...

Fri, June 26, 2:01 PM

Sideways Start, Quiet Calendar, Quarter-End Volatility Potential - Fri, June 26, 2:01 PM

Q2 has been one of the best quarters for stocks going all the way back to the dot com boom, even after the 4-5% pullback in June. This has created a massive quarter-end rebalancing need among mon...

Thu, June 25, 7:27 PM

Mostly Holding Yesterday's Big Gains - Thu, June 25, 7:27 PM

MBS Recap Mostly Holding Yesterday's Big Gains MBS Recap Matthew Graham | 2:32 PM ...

Thu, June 25, 6:37 PM

Heads-Up: Treading Water at Weakest Post-Data Levels - Thu, June 25, 6:37 PM

We're sending this out as an update instead of an alert as prices are no lower than they were at 11:20am. The difference is that Treasury yields are at their weakest levels since before thi...

Thu, June 25, 12:59 PM

Decent Start After PCE Comes in On-Target - Thu, June 25, 12:59 PM

The PCE price index may be a less timely report than CPI/PPI when it comes to measuring inflation in the U.S., but it's more thorough and has stronger implications for Fed policy. Traders were ap...

Wed, June 24, 7:52 PM

What's Up With Today's Big Rally? (Spoiler Alert: Quarter-End Rebalancing) - Wed, June 24, 7:52 PM

MBS Recap What's Up With Today's Big Rally? (Spoiler Alert: Quarter-End Rebalancing) MBS Recap &nb...

Wed, June 24, 1:34 PM

Quick Rally Toward Key Resistance Just Before The Open - Wed, June 24, 1:34 PM

Bonds spend most of the night trading sideways to slightly stronger. Oil prices fell sharply, making it tempting to conclude that's the reason that 10yr yields were almost 7bps lower at 9am. But ...

Tue, June 23, 8:17 PM

Mostly Sideways and Lacking Inspiration - Tue, June 23, 8:17 PM

MBS Recap Mostly Sideways and Lacking Inspiration MBS Recap Matthew Graham | 4:12 ...

Tue, June 23, 1:58 PM

Re-Coupling and Range Consolidation - Tue, June 23, 1:58 PM

Yesterday's most interesting development was the visible decoupling of bond yields with oil prices. To a lesser extent, one could also lament that mid-morning stock selling failed to benefit bond...

Mon, June 22, 8:49 PM

What's Up With Bonds Decoupling From Oil, Etc.? - Mon, June 22, 8:49 PM

MBS Recap What's Up With Bonds Decoupling From Oil, Etc.? MBS Recap Matthew Graham...

Mon, June 22, 1:59 PM

Bonds Starting Weaker Despite Lower Oil and EU Bond Recovery - Mon, June 22, 1:59 PM

European bond yields surged higher on Friday in response to political uncertainty in the U.K., among other things (ongoing global reaction to Fed day and U.S./Iran peace deal status, etc). Treasu...

Thu, June 18, 7:32 PM

Weakest Levels - Thu, June 18, 7:32 PM

MBS are still up 5 ticks (.16) on the day but down 7 ticks (.22) from intraday highs. Reprice risk isn't extreme by any means, but it can't be ruled out for jumpier lenders. If you were already p...

Thu, June 18, 7:19 PM

Perfectly Acceptable Conclusion to a Potentially Volatile Week - Thu, June 18, 7:19 PM

MBS Recap Perfectly Acceptable Conclusion to a Potentially Volatile Week MBS Recap ...

Thu, June 18, 4:20 PM

Down an Eighth From Highs - Thu, June 18, 4:20 PM

This is more of a heads-up than a full-blown alert. Bonds are generally sideways on the day, but rallied mildly in the AM hours to the highs of the day around 11:20am. Since then, there's been gr...

Thu, June 18, 2:04 PM

Deal Signed. Warsh Digested. Bonds Stabilizing - Thu, June 18, 2:04 PM

Trump officially signed the Iran MOU last night , which helped oil prices and bond yields move a bit lower. Overseas markets also did a decent job digesting the post-Warsh trade, quarantining mos...

Wed, June 17, 9:00 PM

Bonds Tell Warsh What They Think of His Changes - Wed, June 17, 9:00 PM

MBS Recap Bonds Tell Warsh What They Think of His Changes MBS Recap Matthew Graham...

Wed, June 17, 7:25 PM

Negative Reprice Risk Increasing - Wed, June 17, 7:25 PM

MBS are now down nearly 3/8ths of a point on the day and half a point from pre-Fed levels. If you haven't seen a negative reprice yet, you will. The primary driver was the dot plot at 2p...

Wed, June 17, 6:03 PM

Selling Off After Dot Plot - Wed, June 17, 6:03 PM

The dots show a sharp bias toward higher rates by year-end and bonds are selling off. MBS down a quick eighth of a point and 10yr up 2.6bps at 4.468. Negative reprices are likely.

Wed, June 17, 6:00 PM

Here's What Changed in The New Fed Announcement - Wed, June 17, 6:00 PM

Recent indicators suggest that economic activity has been expanding at The Federal Open Market Committee approved the following statement for release by a solid pace. Job gains have remained l...

Wed, June 17, 1:40 PM

What Are Bonds Waiting For? - Wed, June 17, 1:40 PM

So far today, we've seen some war-related headlines that feel like they should have gotten at least a mild response (Trump saying MOU isn't final and could go back to dropping bombs) and a Retail...

Tue, June 16, 8:24 PM

Decent Gains, But Some Signs of Resistance - Tue, June 16, 8:24 PM

MBS Recap Decent Gains, But Some Signs of Resistance MBS Recap Matthew Graham | 4:...

Tue, June 16, 3:55 PM

Stronger Overnight as Europe Trades Peace - Tue, June 16, 3:55 PM

European markets definitely got in on the peace deal action yesterday, but they didn't trade it nearly as aggressively as US markets. Why bring this up? There was a fairly obvious shift tow...

Mon, June 15, 8:15 PM

Gradual Selling Leaves Bonds Only Slightly Stronger. - Mon, June 15, 8:15 PM

MBS Recap Gradual Selling Leaves Bonds Only Slightly Stronger. MBS Recap Matthew G...

Mon, June 15, 5:03 PM

Down More Than an Eighth From Highs - Mon, June 15, 5:03 PM

Bonds are still in positive territory on the day, but at the weakest levels. 10yr yields are down 1.5bps at 4.47, up about 3bps from the lows. MBS are up an eighth, but down 6 ticks (.19...

Mon, June 15, 2:07 PM

Near Best Levels in a Month as Peace Deal Materializes - Mon, June 15, 2:07 PM

Although at least one article (from BBC) suggested a peace deal had been signed on Friday, the real word appears to be that a signing is scheduled for Friday. That fact, along with comments on a ...

Fri, June 12, 7:34 PM

Minimal Deal Drama, But Next Week Could be Different - Fri, June 12, 7:34 PM

MBS Recap Minimal Deal Drama, But Next Week Could be Different MBS Recap Matthew G...

Fri, June 12, 3:22 PM

Bouncing Back on MOU Back-And-Forth - Fri, June 12, 3:22 PM

From Iran Foreign Minister Araghchi: The Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding has never been closer. Pending its finalization, the media should refrain from entering speculation about its con...

Fri, June 12, 2:48 PM

Weakest Levels - Fri, June 12, 2:48 PM

More of a heads-up than a full-blown alert due to timing of the losses... MBS are down near a quarter point on the day and nearly as much from the AM highs. That said, those highs happened fir...

Fri, June 12, 1:34 PM

To Whammie or Not to Whammie, That is Our Friday (And Weekend) - Fri, June 12, 1:34 PM

Bonds were sideways at first in the overnight session. Then they improved moderately after newswires from Iran's Mehr news agency detailing some specifics of the peace deal, including the U....

Thu, June 11, 8:40 PM

Big Rally After More Forceful Peace Deal Announcement - Thu, June 11, 8:40 PM

MBS Recap Big Rally After More Forceful Peace Deal Announcement MBS Recap Matthew ...

Thu, June 11, 5:34 PM

Bonds Surge to Best Levels After Air Strikes Called Off - Thu, June 11, 5:34 PM

TRUMP: CANCELLED SCHEDULED STRIKES AND BOMBINGS AGAINST IRAN THIS EVENING TRUMP: DISCUSSIONS AND FINAL POINTS HAVE BEEN, IN BOTH CONCEPT AND GREAT DETAIL, APPROVED BY ALL PARTIES INVOLVED T...

Thu, June 11, 5:07 PM

MBS Down Just Over an Eighth From Highs - Thu, June 11, 5:07 PM

The 30yr bond auction added a small amount of additional pressure on bonds. 10yr yields rose about 1bp and have already recovered half a bp (not big swings in the bigger picture). But bonds were ...

Thu, June 11, 1:44 PM

Some Volatility and Resilience After Trump Comments and Data - Thu, June 11, 1:44 PM

Bonds were reasonably stronger in the overnight session with 10yr yields down roughly 4bps from 4.56 to 4.52. About 8 minutes before the PPI data came out, a series of Trump comments on the Iran ...

Thu, June 11, 12:36 PM

Bonds Losing Ground After PPI and War Headlines - Thu, June 11, 12:36 PM

Continued Claims (May)/30 1,795K vs 1780K f'cast, 1777K prev Core PPI m/m (May) 0.4% vs 0.5% f'cast, 1% prev Core PPI y/y (May) 4.9% vs 5.4% f'cast, 5.2% prev ...

Wed, June 10, 8:04 PM

War Headlines Cause Mid-Day Reversal - Wed, June 10, 8:04 PM

MBS Recap War Headlines Cause Mid-Day Reversal MBS Recap Matthew Graham | 4:03 PM ...

Wed, June 10, 5:35 PM