MBS and Treasury Markets Archive

Reasonably Resilient After Data-Driven Selling - Thu, July 24, 9:19 PM

MBS Recap Reasonably Resilient After Data-Driven Selling MBS Recap Matthew Graham ...

Thu, July 24, 12:47 PM

Some Selling Before and After Jobless Claims - Thu, July 24, 12:47 PM

Jobless claims data continues to defy a majority of other labor market metrics in showing a remarkable lack of any signs of softening. In fact, the 4 week average is now at a 13 week low.&n...

Wed, July 23, 8:55 PM

Broadly Calm Despite Modest Pull-Back - Wed, July 23, 8:55 PM

MBS Recap Broadly Calm Despite Modest Pull-Back MBS Recap Matthew Graham | 4:54 PM...

Wed, July 23, 4:01 PM

Weakest Levels After EU Tariff Updates - Wed, July 23, 4:01 PM

Take it with a grain of salt as it's being reported by the FT, but... BRUSSELS COULD AGREE TO THE SO-CALLED RECIPROCAL LEVIES TO AVOID THE US PRESIDENT’S THREAT TO RAISE THEM TO 30 PER C...

Wed, July 23, 2:43 PM

Weaker Start After Japan Trade Deal - Wed, July 23, 2:43 PM

The analytical theme this week has been to observe the market movement and then go scrambling for justification. Such is the nature of a week without any actionable econ data. This morning'...

Tue, July 22, 8:16 PM

Solid AM Gains Stick Around All Day - Tue, July 22, 8:16 PM

MBS Recap Solid AM Gains Stick Around All Day MBS Recap Matthew Graham | 4:15 PM ...

Tue, July 22, 3:23 PM

Bonds Approve of Bessent Comments and Stock Volatility - Tue, July 22, 3:23 PM

While stock market volatility may be a drop in the bucket in the bigger picture, earnings season tends to increase volume and liquidity . This can spill over to the bond market in unpredic...

Mon, July 21, 8:26 PM

Uneventful Resilience - Mon, July 21, 8:26 PM

MBS Recap Uneventful Resilience MBS Recap Matthew Graham | 4:25 PM Une...

Mon, July 21, 7:38 PM

MBS Down an Eighth From Highs - Mon, July 21, 7:38 PM

This is more of a heads-up than a true reprice alert. MBS are still up an eighth on the day and are only down 2 ticks (.06) from most lenders' rate sheet print times. But any lenders ...

Mon, July 21, 3:46 PM

Stronger Start on Another Quiet Calendar Week - Mon, July 21, 3:46 PM

It seems like only 2 weeks ago (because it was) that we encountered an entire week without any major events on the econ calendar. The present week is not much different. Scheduled speeches from F...

Fri, July 18, 9:28 PM

Needle Threaded. Now What? - Fri, July 18, 9:28 PM

MBS Recap Needle Threaded. Now What? MBS Recap Matthew Graham | 5:28 PM ...

Fri, July 18, 4:02 PM

Slow Green Friday - Fri, July 18, 4:02 PM

At the end of a week with a few big ticket economic reports and unexpected headline-induced volatility, who wouldn't like a break? Friday's calendar offers respite with only Consumer Sentim...

Thu, July 17, 7:55 PM

Bonds Unfazed by Econ Data - Thu, July 17, 7:55 PM

MBS Recap Bonds Unfazed by Econ Data MBS Recap Matthew Graham | 3:55 PM ...

Thu, July 17, 6:14 PM

Down an Eighth From Highs - Thu, July 17, 6:14 PM

This is more of a heads-up than a true "alert." MBS are now unchanged on the day and down an eighth of a point from AM highs. Some lenders priced during those highs and the jumpiest a...

Thu, July 17, 2:52 PM

Decent Start Despite Stronger Retail Sales Headline - Thu, July 17, 2:52 PM

There were multiple economic reports on tap this morning (4 of them in the 8:30am slot), but the headliner on a Retail Sales day is almost always going to be Retail Sales! In today's case, it cam...

Thu, July 17, 12:36 PM

Stronger Retail Sales; Not Much of a Reaction - Thu, July 17, 12:36 PM

Retail Sales 0.6 vs 0.1 f'cast, -0.9 prev Core Retail Sales 0.5 vs 0.3 f'cast, 0.2 prev last month revised from 0.4 Import prices 0.1 vs 0.3 las...

Wed, July 16, 7:48 PM

Bonds Give Free Preview of Post-Powell Momentum - Wed, July 16, 7:48 PM

MBS Recap Bonds Give Free Preview of Post-Powell Momentum MBS Recap Matthew Graham...

Wed, July 16, 3:25 PM

Some Selling on Trump/Powell Headlines - Wed, July 16, 3:25 PM

TRUMP LIKELY TO FIRE POWELL SOON, WHITE HOUSE OFFICIAL SAYS OFFICIAL CAUTIONS THERE IS NO EXACT TIMELINE The newswires above are causing a huge explosion of volume in the bond market with the...

Wed, July 16, 2:21 PM

PPI Reaction Playing Out Better Than CPI So Far - Wed, July 16, 2:21 PM

Tuesday's CPI reaction was frustrating. Bonds rallied for an hour only to sell off for the rest of the day starting at 9:30am. Things are off to a different sort of start today. PPI was a b...

Tue, July 15, 8:08 PM

What's Up With The Paradoxical CPI Reaction? - Tue, July 15, 8:08 PM

MBS Recap What's Up With The Paradoxical CPI Reaction? MBS Recap Matthew Graham | ...

Tue, July 15, 3:31 PM

Selling Continues; Reprice Risk Picking Up - Tue, July 15, 3:31 PM

Lenders who priced after the initial selling at 9:30am were dealing with MBS that were roughly unchanged on the day. Since then, we've fallen another 6 ticks (.19)--more than enough for a j...

Tue, July 15, 1:45 PM

CPI Gains Erased Quickly At 9:30am NYSE Open - Tue, July 15, 1:45 PM

Bonds had already leveled off after a fairly tame initial CPI rally, but they've quickly erased all of the AM gains after the 9:30am NYSE open. There is no new headline or event driving the...

Tue, July 15, 1:29 PM

Tariffs Show Up in CPI, But Not Enough to Hurt - Tue, July 15, 1:29 PM

If market watchers get out their magnifying glasses, they can certainly find some evidence of tariffs impacting inflation in various goods, but those goods are such a small part of the overall CP...

Tue, July 15, 12:35 PM

First Move is Stronger as Core CPI Comes in at 0.2 vs 0.3 - Tue, July 15, 12:35 PM

Core MM CPI 0.228 vs 0.3 f'cast, 0.1 prev Core YY CPI 2.9 vs 3.0 f'cast, 2.8 prev Headline MM CPI 0.3 vs 0.3 f'cast, 0.1 prev Although the unrounded n...

Mon, July 14, 7:26 PM

All Eyes on CPI - Mon, July 14, 7:26 PM

MBS Recap All Eyes on CPI MBS Recap Matthew Graham | 3:26 PM All Eyes ...

Mon, July 14, 2:49 PM

Down an Eighth From Highs - Mon, July 14, 2:49 PM

It's been an interesting morning for bonds inside the broader sideways context. Yields fell at 9:30am, all the way into positive territory, briefly. Those gains reversed in the past 25 minut...

Mon, July 14, 2:33 PM

Empty Calendar and a Sideways Start - Mon, July 14, 2:33 PM

Monday is proving to be a good candidate for a bonus summertime weekend day so far. Volumes and volatility were low overnight and trading levels are inconsequentially weaker after. There was a sm...

Fri, July 11, 9:09 PM

Bonds Bracing For CPI Impact - Fri, July 11, 9:09 PM

MBS Recap Bonds Bracing For CPI Impact MBS Recap Matthew Graham | 5:09 PM ...

Fri, July 11, 7:00 PM

Down an Eighth From Mid-AM Highs - Fri, July 11, 7:00 PM

There hasn't been any big, new push toward lower levels in MBS, but rather a slow grind to the weakest levels of the day. One can never be sure what's running through lenders' minds at times like...

Fri, July 11, 2:30 PM

Overnight Selling But Still in The Range - Fri, July 11, 2:30 PM

In terms of news that seems like it should be important, the biggest overnight development was the announcement of a 35% tariff on Canadian imports starting August 1st (up from the previously-sla...

Thu, July 10, 9:07 PM

Fed Speakers and Auction Help Bonds Hold Steady - Thu, July 10, 9:07 PM

MBS Recap Fed Speakers and Auction Help Bonds Hold Steady MBS Recap Matthew Graham...

Thu, July 10, 3:33 PM

Week's Only Relevant Data is Not Bond-Friendly - Thu, July 10, 3:33 PM

You would be hard pressed to find a week with less to offer in terms of scheduled economic data. In fact, it's not an overstatement to say that regular old weekly jobless claims data was th...

Thu, July 10, 12:38 PM

Very Modest Selling After Lower Jobless Claims - Thu, July 10, 12:38 PM

Jobless Claims 227k vs 235k f'cast, 232k prev Continued Claims 1965k vs 1980k f'cast, 1955k prev Any bond traders waiting for employment data to show signs of dete...

Wed, July 9, 8:29 PM

Correction to the Correction. Will it Last? - Wed, July 9, 8:29 PM

MBS Recap Correction to the Correction. Will it Last? MBS Recap Matthew Graham | 4...

Wed, July 9, 2:09 PM

Bonds Sticking to Predictable Script So Far This Week - Wed, July 9, 2:09 PM

Anyone who's spent much time around MBS Live knows about our favorite mantra regarding predictions. Specifically, they are for suckers --at least in the context of predicting future intere...

Tue, July 8, 7:44 PM

Correction Starting to Level Off? - Tue, July 8, 7:44 PM

MBS Recap Correction Starting to Level Off? MBS Recap Matthew Graham | 3:43 PM ...

Tue, July 8, 3:26 PM

Heads: They Win. Tails: You Lose - Tue, July 8, 3:26 PM

Amid a complete absence of actionable economic data in the new week, stocks and bonds have been left to focus on new developments on the tariff front. It seems like only yesterday that the "90 da...

Mon, July 7, 8:19 PM

Correction Continues Despite Tariff Announcements - Mon, July 7, 8:19 PM

MBS Recap Correction Continues Despite Tariff Announcements MBS Recap Matthew Grah...

Mon, July 7, 2:16 PM

Slow Start; Light Calendar This Week - Mon, July 7, 2:16 PM

Fresh off the rally reversal courtesy of last week's jobs report, the bond market now finds itself in a virtually data-free week with little else to inspire big departures from prevailing levels....

Thu, July 3, 7:25 PM

Big Market Reaction but Mortgages Outperform - Thu, July 3, 7:25 PM

MBS Recap Big Market Reaction but Mortgages Outperform MBS Recap Matthew Graham | ...

Thu, July 3, 2:23 PM

Jobs Report Comes in Stronger. Bonds React Logically - Thu, July 3, 2:23 PM

Apart from the fact that this morning's jobs report contrasted starkly from the slew of anecdotal evidence suggesting a weaker labor market in June, the morning has proceeded almost exactly as ex...

Thu, July 3, 12:33 PM

Bonds Selling Off After Stronger NFP - Thu, July 3, 12:33 PM

Nonfarm Payrolls 147k vs 110k f'cast, 139k prev Unemployment rate 4.1 vs 4.3 f'cast, 4.2 prev Despite almost every other employment report (or employment component ...

Wed, July 2, 7:43 PM

Bonds Circle The Wagons Ahead of High Risk NFP - Wed, July 2, 7:43 PM

MBS Recap Bonds Circle The Wagons Ahead of High Risk NFP MBS Recap Matthew Graham ...

Wed, July 2, 1:54 PM

Bonds Think About Rallying on ADP Data, But Already Getting Cold Feet - Wed, July 2, 1:54 PM

ADP employment was this morning's key economic report and it came out sharply weaker than expected (-33k vs 95k f'cast). There are many past examples of a "miss" of this size prompting a swift ra...

Wed, July 2, 12:23 PM

Bonds Erasing Overnight Losses After Sharply Weaker ADP - Wed, July 2, 12:23 PM

ADP Employment -33k vs 95k f'cast, 29k prev Bonds were moderately weaker in the overnight session but are erasing those losses after ADP employment came out much weaker than expe...

Tue, July 1, 8:06 PM

Traders Buy The Dip After AM Data - Tue, July 1, 8:06 PM

MBS Recap Traders Buy The Dip After AM Data MBS Recap Matthew Graham | 4:04 PM ...

Tue, July 1, 4:01 PM

Weakest Levels of The Day - Tue, July 1, 4:01 PM

MBS are now down a quarter point on the day and just over a quarter from the highs. Lenders who priced early in the morning are seeing 6 ticks (.19) of weakness from rate sheet print times ...

Tue, July 1, 2:33 PM