The interest rate data provided in this newsletter are national averages from independent data sources. Rate/APR terms may differ from those listed above based on the creditworthiness of the borrower. All information provided "as is" for informational purposes only, not intended for trading purposes or financial advice.
MBS are down a quick eighth of a point from the most recent highs. Unless a lender repriced for the better at those highs, negative reprice risk is minimal and, indeed, not at all justified...
Human traders may be extremely underrepresented on today's half-day trading session, but the robots/algos know what to do with a sub-200k Jobless Claims print. Robots are also not smart eno...
If we turn up the magnification on our market-watching microscopes, it may seem like something important happened in the bond market overnight. 10yr yields were up by more than 3bps at one point ...
In addition to this week's holiday closure (early close Wednesday, fully closed Thursday), the econ calendar is also lacking in terms of potential sources of volatility. A majority of ...
This is more of a heads-up than a high-urgency reprice alert. If you were going to lock or float today, nothing that's happening right now should change your mind. But the "lock" crowd has a bit ...
Although the bond market is technically open today, it might as well not be. Late year holidays (Thanksgiving, X-mas, New Year) depress volume and liquidity more than any others. Today is neith...
While many government employees have the day off today and Friday, these are not new, official Federal Holidays. As such, the bond market is open on the same schedule as always. Incidentally, tha...
We've spent the past several days reiterating and lamenting the onset of the holiday trading doldrums--a time of year that sees vastly lower volumes/ liquidity /participation, and thus runs the r...
2025 is effectively over when it comes to meaningful shifts in the bond market. The coming days will be so heavily-affected by light volume/ liquidity that any apparently significant shifts woul...
There was a fair amount of momentum among financial news sources regarding the potential significance of last night's Bank of Japan (BOJ) announcement to the U.S. bond market. While it was clearl...
Great news for bonds on the inflation front this morning: Core annual inflation came in at 2.6% compared to a 3.0% forecast and 3.0% last time. It's the lowest reading of the cycle and the ...
Bonds staged a decent recovery heading into the 11am hour, but they've been selling somewhat steadily since then. While the selling seems to have leveled off for now, it leaves 5.0 MBS teet...
Wednesday is largely a placeholder as 2025's relevant trading days evaporate. Apart from the year-end influences on the 29th-31st, Thursday's CPI arguably represents the last opportunity to trade...
If there was one metric in this morning's data that should be helping the bond market, it's the uptick in the unemployment rate from 4.4% in September to 4.6% in November (a new cycle high). This...
Bonds have been selling fairly steadily since 10am with 10yr yields now down less than half a bp at 4.176 and MBS up only 1 tick (.03) on the day. 5.0 MBS coupons are down an eighth of a po...
The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) is responsible for the two most important economic reports to the bond market: The Employment Situation (aka jobs report or NFP) and The Consumer Price Index ...
There's a noticeable divergence between long and short term bonds since the Fed announcement, and it's becoming more pronounced today. We can consider a few different reasons with the most ...
MBS are still slightly stronger on the day but now down 6 ticks (.19) from the AM price plateau. This is definitely in the range of potential reprice risk scenarios.
Bonds are adding moderate to yesterday's post-Fed gains. Most of today's rally has followed this morning's jobless claims data, but we wouldn't necessarily give it all the credit. This is a trick...
Bonds have reversed the initial press conference weakness and are now at their best levels of the day with MBS up 3/8ths and 10yr down 4.1bps at 4.145.
The offending newswire:
Fed's Powell: Fed well-positioned to wait to see how the economy evolves
The bond market would rather hear a stronger leaning in the direction of another cut i...
The Fed cut rates as expected, and the dot plot didn't show any major migration higher in rate. In fact, the median remained unchanged and more dots moved down than up.
...
Available indicators suggest that economic activity has been expanding at a moderate pace. Job gains have slowed this year, and the unemployment rate has edged up but remained low through Augu...
Bonds were modestly weaker overnight, but have moved back into positive territory after this morning's Employment Cost Index and NYSE. This means 10yr yields are at the bleeding edge of the 3-mon...
Tuesday is a fairly straightforward session for the bond market. By now, we assume most of the pre-Fed positioning would be out of the way, and we know there was a decent amount of anticipa...
Bonds are under pressure yet again at the start of the new week--insult added to injury coming off of the worst week of selling since the late October Fed announcement. On that note, some of...
Bonds were only slightly weaker before the 9:30am NYSE open, but losses have been sharper since then. 10yr yields are up 3.6bps at 4.173 and MBS are down 7 ticks (.22). Lenders who priced b...
Mini snowball selling in bonds now has 10yr yields up 4bps at 4.138 and MBS down 5 ticks (.16) on the day. Lenders who priced near 9:30am are seeing 6 ticks (.19) of weakness and are thus more li...
This is more of a heads-up alert for the earlier, jumpier lenders (especially those who priced around 9:30am). Since that time, MBS prices are down an eighth of a point. This is the earlies...
If there's one resounding theme in the bond market this week, it's that trading momentum marched to its own beat with almost zero regard for the available economic data. While this was a notable ...
A message from Northeast Financial LLC:
The interest rate data provided in this newsletter are national averages from independent data sources. Rate/APR terms may differ from those listed above based on the creditworthiness of the borrower. All information provided "as is" for informational purposes only, not intended for trading purposes or financial advice.
