While there were technically a few MBS bids that suggest a 5 tick (.16) gap, the modal high is exactly an eighth of a point above current levels in 5.5 UMBS. This leaves the jumpiest lender...
This morning's market movement continues to build a case against yesterday's mid-day sell-off being serious and purposeful. Bonds have continued to rally back gradually since topping out ju...
Modest overnight gains are quickly evaporating. MBS are down 2 ticks on the day and more than an eighth of a point from rate sheet print times. Negative reprices are becoming a risk. ...
If there was any remaining doubt that recent political headlines were given too much credit for impacting the bond market, it was removed late Sunday night. When Treasury trading began for ...
This week's bond rally hit a wall at the 3pm close on Wednesday. There's been gradual upward pressure since then with today's overnight session seeing some of the fastest selling.
...
MBS are now at the lows of the day, down 5 ticks (.16) in 5.5 coupons. Lenders who priced near the highs of the morning are seeing 6 ticks (.16) of weakness.
10yr yields are ...
Today's Jobless Claims report is for the week ending July 13th. This is important because the establishment survey for the big jobs report (nonfarm payrolls) is conducted on the week that i...
Just because an economic calendar is full doesn't mean it's of any major importance to the bond market. Today fits the bill with the two economic headliners being Housing Starts and Industr...
Retail Sales was/is the biggest data point of the week and it came out perfectly unchanged. This was as-expected according to some data aggregators and stronger than expected according to o...
Retail Sales
0.0 vs 0.0 f'cast, 0.1 prev
Retail Sales Excluding Gas and Autos
+0.8, highest since January
Despite coming in right in line with forecasts at the head...
MBS have fallen fairly gently to the lows of the day with 5.5 coupons now down 6 ticks (.19). That said, lenders are seeing a maximum of an eighth of a point of weakness from intraday highs...
While there's no way objectively quantify the political ramifications of the failed assassination attempt on former President Trump over the weekend, history suggests--at the very least--that suc...
The Producer Price Index (PPI) is certainly not in the same league as CPI when it comes to bond market impact, but there have been several notable reactions in the past year. It was a conce...
Core PPI M/M
0.4 vs 0.2 f'cast
last month revised to 0.3 from 0.0
Core Annual PPI
3.0 vs 2.5 f'cast, 2.3 prev
Thankfully, PPI is not in the same league as CPI.&n...
This is more of a heads-up than a true reprice alert although risks can't be ruled out completely. Bonds have drifted away from their best levels of the day after the 30yr bond auction and ...
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is the most important economic report for the bond market these days. The most important line item in that report is month over month core CPI, which excludes...
Core CPI M/M
0.1 vs 0.2 f'cast, 0.2 prev
Core CPI Y/Y
3.3 vs 3.4 f'cast, 3.4 prev
Pretty straightforward outcome here. CPI was high stakes and this is quite a...
The most recent sideways slide began just before noon last Friday. Bonds had rallied in response to the jobs report with 10's closing at 4.29%. Since then, there hasn't been more than...
After Powell said "Today, I’m not going to be sending any signals about the timing of future actions," the bond market moved to levels consistent with the absence any meaningful appreciatio...
Powell's testimony is about to begin, but as is the custom, a prepared speech is available in advance. Here are some of the bullet points highlighted by data aggregators:
FED'S POWELL: F...
The new week is one day less new today, but no less sideways so far. Yields rose microscopically in the overnight session, but even that is a generous assessment considering the range in th...
Bonds are finding their range in a perfectly inoffensive way to begin the new week. That's a victory considering a bit of weakness is never a surprise at the start of Treasury auction weeks...
Today's playbook was fairly straightforward with bonds being likely to move in the direction suggested by the jobs report. The only challenge would have been the presence of mixed messages ...
Nonfarm Payrolls
206k vs 190k f'cast
last month revised down to 218k from 272k
Unemployment Rate
4.1 vs 4.0 f'cast, 4.0 prev
Wages
0.3 vs 0.3 f'cast, 0.4 prev ...
The bond market will close at 2pm instead of 5pm today as a part of the Independence Day holiday (fully closed tomorrow). With only a few hours left, it's off to as good of a start as we co...
It's been an interesting and frustrating couple of days for the bond market with yields spiking for reasons that leave many bond watchers guessing. A market participant who's heavily involv...
Despite an absence of new news or events, bonds have drifted to their weakest levels of the day with 10yr yields now up 9.1bps at 4.489 and MBS down just over a quarter point in 6.0 coupons. ...
Friday's trading session was marked by a surprisingly weak reaction to economic data that should have helped bonds. In fact, it did at first, but things deteriorated as the day progressed.&...
ISM Manufacturing
48.5 vs 49.1 f'cast, 48.7 prev
ISM Prices Paid
52.1 vs 55.9 f'cast, 57.0 prev
Bonds began the day in slightly weaker territory and con...
Bonds are losing even more ground at the 4pm NYSE close with 10yr yields now up 10bps at 4.387 and MBS down nearly 3/8ths of a point. If you haven't seen a negative reprice yet, it's becomi...
