Trading remains slow, sparse, and mostly inconsequential. MBS are still 1 tick (.03) higher on the day but down an eighth of a point from the AM highs. Lenders who released rate sheet...
Unless something incredibly interesting happens in the next 3 hours, this morning's commentary will likely be the end-of-day commentary as well. Due to the national day of mourning, bonds w...
Jobless claims data is normally a Thursday affair, but Federal economic data is not being released tomorrow due to the Jimmy Carter Day of Mourning (markets still open a half day). As such,...
High hopes and crossed fingers may help one's outlook in advance of key economic data, but they are powerless once the data comes out. In today's case, the Job Openings data coincided with ...
Despite some overnight strength, bonds have been selling steadily during domestic hours. MBS are down just over an eighth of a point on the day, but more than a quarter point from the AM hi...
Treasuries made modest gains in overseas trading, but yields are heading higher during domestic hours. There are two things working against us this morning. The first is more of a gen...
This is more of a "heads-up" alert as there haven't been any major changes in prices in the past few hours. Instead, Treasury yields have trickled gently to the highest levels of the day wi...
Today's ISM Manufacturing report was the only top tier economic data this week. While we wouldn't say it was "strong" by any means, it wasn't weak either. More importantly, it was hig...
ISM Manufacturing
49.3 vs 48.4 f'cast, 48.4 prev
ISM Prices
52.5 vs 51.7 f'cast, 48.4 prev
The ISM Manufacturing data wasn't too far from forecasts, but this week's...
Bonds have steadily been giving up the overnight gains despite remaining in positive territory on the day. 10yr yields are still down about half a bp at 4.565, but that's up from lows of 4....
Bonds were steadily stronger overnight, both in Asia and Europe. 10yr yields and MBS had both fully erased Tuesday's losses within the first 30 minutes of domestic trading. That's whe...
While some lenders just set a conservative rate sheet and clock out on New Year's Eve, any lender that's paying attention is increasingly likely to be considering negative reprices.
Month end ...
Things look a bit worse than they actually are on the charts due to a narrow overall range, but bonds have definitely shifted into weaker territory starting after 10:30am. MBS are now down ...
The day begins with MBS in slightly weaker territory while Treasuries are slightly stronger. The discrepancy isn't really big enough to merit any urgent explanation, but either way, there a...
Stop the presses! MBS are up almost 3/8ths of a point in early trading and 10yr yields have surged lower by 8bps. This is a massive and miraculous rally that surely must have some com...
MBS are now down 2 ticks (.06) on the day and just barely an eighth of a point from the AM highs. Some later-pricing lenders released rates during those highs, so if they're feeling jumpy, ...
Not that any of this week's trading activity matters in the bigger picture, but things have been reasonably resilient after Monday's selling. Tuesday and Thursday saw more selling, but each...
Bonds are back in the office for a few days, at least in the sense that there are no holiday scheduled changes, and they've wasted no time getting right back to the messaging that's been in force...
Bonds are selling off for no obvious reasons for however many days in a row it's been (at least 2 unless you count last Thursday). Episodes like this result in bond analysts dusting off phrases l...
MBS are now down 9 ticks on the day (.28) and nearly a quarter point from the AM highs. Lenders who priced at or before 9:30am ET are slightly more likely to be considering negative reprice...
The most interesting analysis we can offer today is a simple reminder that the word "idiosyncrasy" has an "S" at the end instead of the "C" that we're all thinking it should have. Speaking ...
Consumer Confidence
104.7 vs 113.0 f'cast, 111.7 prev
MBS began the day about 2 ticks (.06) weaker but lost ground at a slightly faster pace between 9:30am and 10am ET.&nbs...
MBS hit their highs of the day just after noon ET and have corrected a bit since then. While 5.5 coupons are still up a quarter point, they're down just over an eighth of a point from the h...
This week's biggest to-do in terms of economic reports was this morning's PCE inflation data. The fact that the Fed just said it was shifting its primary focus away from the labor mark...
M/M Core PCE
0.1 vs 0.2 f'cast, 0.3 prev
Y/Y Core PCE
2.8 vs 2.9 f'cast, 2.8 prev
Bonds were already slightly stronger overnight and are adding to gains following t...
The takeaway from yesterday's Fed announcement was twofold. First, the Fed is much closer to being done cutting rates than it anticipated in September. This accounts for the sharp sell-off ...
Bonds have been selling off steadily in the long end of the yield curve all morning. There had been limited spillover to MBS until just recently, but volatility began picking up over the pa...
This is just an amplification of the previous alert just after 2pm. Bonds have continued to sell off. At first, it was based on the dot plot and the small verbiage change in the annou...
MBS are down a quick eighth of a point and 10yr yields are up 2.4bps at 4.425. The reaction so far is predicated on the dot plot moving up more than market expectations. More to follo...
Recent indicators suggest that economic activity has continued to expand at a solid pace. Since earlier in the year, labor market conditions have generally eased, and the unemployment rate has mo...
Bonds were moderately weaker overnight but have been pushing back in fits and starts in early trading. This has been a more uneven process for MBS as 5.5 coupons lost a majority of their ea...
MBS are underperforming Treasuries at the moment, even if we use 5yr yields as a benchmark. 10yr yields are down 0.2bps at 4.399 (i.e. slightly stronger).
MBS are now back in weaker terr...
Yesterday, it was S&P Global PMI data. Today it's Retail Sales. Both were stronger than expected. Both failed to cause any lasting weakness in bonds. Today's reaction ...
