MBS and Treasury Markets Archive

Dennis Tulpa

Mortgage Advisor

Broadway Mortgage Group

P: (615) 290-4858

M: (615) 290-4858

E: dennis@broadwaymortgagegroup.com

www.broadwaymortgagegroup.com

1308 Wentworth Drive
Gallatin TN 37066___

License:

1146435

Ask Me a Question

Wed, 9:28 PM

Surprisingly Strong Reaction to Equivocal Powell - Wed, 9:28 PM

MBS Recap Surprisingly Strong Reaction to Equivocal Powell MBS Recap Matthew Graha...

Wed, 7:07 PM

Back to Strongest Levels as Powell Evades Commitment - Wed, 7:07 PM

Fed Chair Powell is going decisively out of his way to avoid making any commitments about the timing of the next rate cut. At the same time, his cryptic answers are being interpreted by the...

Wed, 6:04 PM

First Move is Modestly Weaker After Fed - Wed, 6:04 PM

The verbiage changes in the announcement were underwhelming for those hoping to see more of a September rate hike clue. Full breakdown here Bonds are quickly off their best le...

Wed, 6:01 PM

Old vs New Fed Statement With Changes Highlighted - Wed, 6:01 PM

Recent indicators suggest that economic activity has continued to expand at a solid pace. Job gains have remained strong, moderated, and the unemployment rate has remained moved up but remai...

Wed, 12:50 PM

AM Data Makes For a Solid Start on Fed Day - Wed, 12:50 PM

While there is still one market moving economic report left this morning, the first two have been bond friendly with both ADP and the Employment Cost Index (ECI) coming out lower than expected.&n...

Tue, 8:06 PM

Data and Headlines Drive Modest Volatility Ahead of The Fed - Tue, 8:06 PM

MBS Recap Data and Headlines Drive Modest Volatility Ahead of The Fed MBS Recap Ma...

Tue, 5:19 PM

Bonds Pop Into Positive Territory on Geopolitical Headlines - Tue, 5:19 PM

Bond yields dropped sharply, but not too significantly just before 1pm, apparently in reaction to the following newswires: LEBANESE MEDIA ARE REPORTING AN EXPLOSION IN THE DAHIEH SUBURB OF ...

Tue, 4:28 PM

JOLTS Data Threads The Needle - Tue, 4:28 PM

The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) became an occasionally major market mover over the past few years as traders looked for any available clues about the rapidly changing labor mar...

Tue, 2:19 PM

Bonds Give Up Modest Gains After JOLTS Data - Tue, 2:19 PM

Job Openings 8.184m vs 8.0m f'cast, 8.23m prev Job Quits (lower is better) 3.282 vs 3.459m prev Consumer Confidence 100.3 vs 99.7 f'cast, 100.4 prev Case...

Mon, 8:14 PM

No Bad News in Today's Treasury Announcement - Mon, 8:14 PM

MBS Recap No Bad News in Today's Treasury Announcement MBS Recap Matthew Graham | ...

Mon, 4:23 PM

MBS at Lows - Mon, 4:23 PM

There hasn't been any quick or alarming movements in the bond market this morning, but there has been a slow drift down to the weakest levels of the day in MBS. It's possible that early-pri...

Mon, 3:41 PM

Stronger Start. Treasury Supply Preview This Afternoon - Mon, 3:41 PM

Bonds were moderately stronger overnight with some of the improvement seen right at the start of the session and a majority following the start of European trading. There were no standout f...

Fri, July 26, 10:04 PM

Straightforward Gains After Important Inflation Data - Fri, July 26, 10:04 PM

MBS Recap Straightforward Gains After Important Inflation Data MBS Recap Matthew G...

Fri, July 26, 3:58 PM

Bonds Rallying Despite Higher Core PCE - Fri, July 26, 3:58 PM

After yesterday's quarter over quarter core PCE price index came in 0.2% higher than expected, we knew today's monthly PCE data would have to include higher numbers divided across the months...

Fri, July 26, 12:39 PM

PCE Slightly Higher, But Bonds Are OK With It - Fri, July 26, 12:39 PM

Core M/M PCE 0.2 vs 0.1 f'cast, 0.1 prev (unrounded = 0.182%) Core Y/Y PCE 2.6 vs 2.5 f'cast, 2.6 prev Incomes 0.2 vs 0.4 f'cast, 0.4 prev Outlays ...

Thu, July 25, 7:29 PM

Lots of Competing Motivations Causing Volatility In a Narrow Range - Thu, July 25, 7:29 PM

MBS Recap Lots of Competing Motivations Causing Volatility In a Narrow Range MBS Recap &...

Thu, July 25, 3:44 PM

Strong Start Despite Data Driven Volatility - Thu, July 25, 3:44 PM

It was easy to question the notion of "data dependence" in the first half of the week, largely because there wasn't much in terms of meaningful economic data. There were also several instan...

Thu, July 25, 12:39 PM

Stronger GDP/PCE Data Eroding Some of The Overnight Rally - Thu, July 25, 12:39 PM

Jobless Claims 235k vs 238k f'cast, 245k prev Durable Goods -6.6 vs 0.3 f'cast, 0.1 prev Nondefense ex-air Durable Goods 1.0 vs 0.2 f'cast, -0.9 prev ...

Wed, July 24, 8:30 PM

Whatever Happened to Bonds Being Data Dependent? - Wed, July 24, 8:30 PM

MBS Recap Whatever Happened to Bonds Being Data Dependent? MBS Recap Matthew Graha...

Wed, July 24, 6:00 PM

Now in Weaker Territory; Reprice Risk Increasing - Wed, July 24, 6:00 PM

Losses have continued after the 5yr Treasury auction and bonds are now in negative territory. 10yr yields are up 1.7bps at 4.268. MBS are now down 1 tick (.03) on the day and 6 ticks ...

Wed, July 24, 5:21 PM

Down About an Eighth After 5yr Auction - Wed, July 24, 5:21 PM

5yr auction 4.121 vs 4.110 expectations bid to cover 2.4 vs 2.36x avg Bonds are losing ground after the 5yr Treasury auction even though it was only slightly weake...

Wed, July 24, 4:07 PM

Bonds Shake Off Stronger Services PMI to Hold Overnight Gains - Wed, July 24, 4:07 PM

While they may not be the most highly consequential economic reports on any given month, today's S&P Global PMIs were our best shot to see some volatility in the bond market today. In t...

Wed, July 24, 1:48 PM

Mixed S&P PMI Data; First Move is Weaker, But Not Much - Wed, July 24, 1:48 PM

S&P Services PMI 56 vs 55 f'cast, 55.3 prev S&P Manufacturing PMI 49.5 vs 51.7 f'cast, 51.6 prev These PMIs from S&P Global are the day's most relevant ...

Tue, July 23, 8:23 PM

Afternoon Weakness For Longer-Term Bonds. Are MBS in That Category? - Tue, July 23, 8:23 PM

MBS Recap Afternoon Weakness For Longer-Term Bonds. Are MBS in That Category? MBS Recap ...

Tue, July 23, 8:06 PM

MBS at Lows, Down an Eighth from AM Highs - Tue, July 23, 8:06 PM

While there were technically a few MBS bids that suggest a 5 tick (.16) gap, the modal high is exactly an eighth of a point above current levels in 5.5 UMBS. This leaves the jumpiest lender...

Tue, July 23, 3:39 PM

Uneventful, Slightly Stronger Start; Light Calendar - Tue, July 23, 3:39 PM

This morning's market movement continues to build a case against yesterday's mid-day sell-off being serious and purposeful. Bonds have continued to rally back gradually since topping out ju...

Mon, July 22, 9:02 PM

Mid-Day Mystery Move But no Impact on Bigger Picture - Mon, July 22, 9:02 PM

MBS Recap Mid-Day Mystery Move But no Impact on Bigger Picture MBS Recap Matthew G...

Mon, July 22, 3:36 PM

Bonds Selling Off - Mon, July 22, 3:36 PM

Modest overnight gains are quickly evaporating. MBS are down 2 ticks on the day and more than an eighth of a point from rate sheet print times. Negative reprices are becoming a risk. ...

Mon, July 22, 3:22 PM

Total and Complete Absence of a Reaction to Biden Bowing Out - Mon, July 22, 3:22 PM

If there was any remaining doubt that recent political headlines were given too much credit for impacting the bond market, it was removed late Sunday night. When Treasury trading began for ...

Fri, July 19, 9:22 PM

Super Duper Flat After Overnight Losses - Fri, July 19, 9:22 PM

MBS Recap Super Duper Flat After Overnight Losses MBS Recap Matthew Graham | 5:21 ...

Fri, July 19, 2:26 PM

Lower Volume And Corporate Bond Issuance Pushing Yields Higher - Fri, July 19, 2:26 PM

This week's bond rally hit a wall at the 3pm close on Wednesday. There's been gradual upward pressure since then with today's overnight session seeing some of the fastest selling. ...

Thu, July 18, 9:08 PM

Morning Volatility, Afternoon Drift - Thu, July 18, 9:08 PM

MBS Recap Morning Volatility, Afternoon Drift MBS Recap Matthew Graham | 5:07 PM ...

Thu, July 18, 6:59 PM

Negative Reprice Risk Increasing - Thu, July 18, 6:59 PM

MBS are now at the lows of the day, down 5 ticks (.16) in 5.5 coupons. Lenders who priced near the highs of the morning are seeing 6 ticks (.16) of weakness. 10yr yields are ...

Thu, July 18, 4:49 PM

Jobless Claims Helping Bonds Push Back Against Overnight Weakness - Thu, July 18, 4:49 PM

Today's Jobless Claims report is for the week ending July 13th. This is important because the establishment survey for the big jobs report (nonfarm payrolls) is conducted on the week that i...

Thu, July 18, 12:35 PM

Modest Gains After Higher Jobless Claims - Thu, July 18, 12:35 PM

Jobless Claims 243k vs 230k f'cast, 223k f'cast Continued Claims 1867k vs 1860k f'cast, 1847k prev Philly Fed Index 13.9 vs 2.9 f'cast, 1.3 prev Philly F...

Wed, July 17, 8:43 PM

More Data Defiance. Maybe It's All About Claims? - Wed, July 17, 8:43 PM

MBS Recap More Data Defiance. Maybe It's All About Claims? MBS Recap Matthew Graha...

Wed, July 17, 3:28 PM

Uneventful Start And an Uneventful Calendar - Wed, July 17, 3:28 PM

Just because an economic calendar is full doesn't mean it's of any major importance to the bond market. Today fits the bill with the two economic headliners being Housing Starts and Industr...

Tue, July 16, 8:16 PM

Bonds Shake Off Retail Sales Impact to End Stronger - Tue, July 16, 8:16 PM

MBS Recap Bonds Shake Off Retail Sales Impact to End Stronger MBS Recap Matthew Gr...

Tue, July 16, 2:41 PM

Two Kinds of Flat - Tue, July 16, 2:41 PM

Retail Sales was/is the biggest data point of the week and it came out perfectly unchanged. This was as-expected according to some data aggregators and stronger than expected according to o...

Tue, July 16, 12:34 PM

Giving up Overnight Gains Despite As-Expected Retail Sales - Tue, July 16, 12:34 PM

Retail Sales 0.0 vs 0.0 f'cast, 0.1 prev Retail Sales Excluding Gas and Autos +0.8, highest since January Despite coming in right in line with forecasts at the head...

Mon, July 15, 8:45 PM

The Sun Also Sets on Bond Rallies - Mon, July 15, 8:45 PM

MBS Recap The Sun Also Sets on Bond Rallies MBS Recap Matthew Graham | 4:44 PM ...

Mon, July 15, 5:46 PM

MBS at Lows, But Reprice Risk is Modest at Best - Mon, July 15, 5:46 PM

MBS have fallen fairly gently to the lows of the day with 5.5 coupons now down 6 ticks (.19). That said, lenders are seeing a maximum of an eighth of a point of weakness from intraday highs...

Mon, July 15, 3:40 PM

Another Chance to Assess Market Sensitivity to Politics - Mon, July 15, 3:40 PM

While there's no way objectively quantify the political ramifications of the failed assassination attempt on former President Trump over the weekend, history suggests--at the very least--that suc...

Fri, July 12, 8:44 PM

Pleasant PPI Paradox Leaves This Week's Big Victory in Focus - Fri, July 12, 8:44 PM

MBS Recap Pleasant PPI Paradox Leaves This Week's Big Victory in Focus MBS Recap M...

Fri, July 12, 3:40 PM

Bonds Holding Yesterday's Gains Despite Hotter PPI - Fri, July 12, 3:40 PM

The Producer Price Index (PPI) is certainly not in the same league as CPI when it comes to bond market impact, but there have been several notable reactions in the past year. It was a conce...

Fri, July 12, 12:37 PM

Surprisingly Resilient After MUCH Higher PPI - Fri, July 12, 12:37 PM

Core PPI M/M 0.4 vs 0.2 f'cast last month revised to 0.3 from 0.0 Core Annual PPI 3.0 vs 2.5 f'cast, 2.3 prev Thankfully, PPI is not in the same league as CPI.&n...

Thu, July 11, 8:42 PM

Very Restrained Bond Rally Considering The Data's Implications - Thu, July 11, 8:42 PM

MBS Recap Very Restrained Bond Rally Considering The Data's Implications MBS Recap ...

Thu, July 11, 7:42 PM

MBS Down More Than an Eighth From Mid Day Highs - Thu, July 11, 7:42 PM

This is more of a heads-up than a true reprice alert although risks can't be ruled out completely. Bonds have drifted away from their best levels of the day after the 30yr bond auction and ...

Thu, July 11, 2:47 PM

This is The Inflation Data You Were Hoping For - Thu, July 11, 2:47 PM

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is the most important economic report for the bond market these days. The most important line item in that report is month over month core CPI, which excludes...

Thu, July 11, 12:34 PM

CPI Lower Than Expected. Bonds Rallying - Thu, July 11, 12:34 PM

Core CPI M/M 0.1 vs 0.2 f'cast, 0.2 prev Core CPI Y/Y 3.3 vs 3.4 f'cast, 3.4 prev Pretty straightforward outcome here. CPI was high stakes and this is quite a...

Dennis Tulpa

Mortgage Advisor

Broadway Mortgage Group

P: (615) 290-4858

M: (615) 290-4858

E: dennis@broadwaymortgagegroup.com

www.broadwaymortgagegroup.com

1308 Wentworth Drive
Gallatin TN 37066___

License:

1146435

Ask Me a Question

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Reproduction or redistribution this newsletter, outside of the distribution services provided, is prohibited. Interest rate data provided in this newsletter are national averages. Rate/APR terms may differ. All information provided "as is" for informational purposes only.