At the risk of tempting fate by discussing a leveling-off of the post-Fed correction again, the overnight session saw the most compelling case yet for the correction having run its course. ...
After feigning a correction back to unchanged levels, bonds are on the run again. 10yr yields are now up 3.7bps to the highs of the day at 3.82.
MBS are down more than an eighth on the d...
(Edited: previous version had 5yr yield stats instead of 10yr)
Negative reprice risk is now slightly higher than at the time of the last alert. MBS are down several more ticks--9 on the ...
The bond market is in a bit of a lull with any excess buying demand flowing to the shorter end of the yield curve. Meanwhile, the long end has been drifting slightly higher in yield in a fa...
While there hasn't been any decisive selling sprees or clear connections to news/data, bonds have been leaking to weaker levels in fits and starts throughout the morning. MBS just hit new l...
Monday's trading session offered some hope that the post-Fed correction was losing steam, but purely from a technical standpoint. All we really know at times like this is that bonds were ke...
FHFA Home Prices
0.1 vs 0.2 f'cast, 0.0 prev
FHFA Annual Change
4.5 vs 5.3 prev
Case Shiller Home Prices
0.0 vs 0.6 prev
Case Shiller Annual Change
...
We closed last week with the idea of "buy the rumor, sell the news" seemingly being a good way to think about the time leading into and away from the Fed's 50bp rate cut. While bonds looked...
The 4pm NYSE close created some volatility for the bond market today--something that sometimes happens--but MBS were already drifting off their afternoon highs starting at 1pm.
5.0...
Fed's Waller is out with several rate-friendly comments and bonds are reacting. Here are the newswires:
FED''S WALLER WHEN ASKED ABOUT THE 50 BPS RATE CUT: IT WAS THE RIGHT NUMBER
FED...
MBS are now down 5 ticks (.16) on the day and 6 ticks (.19) from the AM highs. Those highs were early enough in the morning that most lenders are not seeing this much of a drop from the tim...
Wednesday's Fed rate cut was the worst kept secret in the financial world for months, and the 50bp rate cut was increasingly suspected in the week leading up to the announcement. You've lik...
The post-Fed overnight session was surprisingly calm. In fact, relative to the magnitude of yesterday's events and information, this is surely one of the quietest global market reactions on...
Jobless Claims
219k vs 230k f'cast, 231k prev
Philly Fed Index
1.7 vs -1.0 f'cast -7.0 prev
Bonds began the day in slightly stronger territory after a surprisingly...
MBS have been selling steadily since the start of Powell's press conference. 5.0 coupons are off a quarter point during that time and 10yr yields are up 5bps on the day and 7bps from the lo...
Rate Cut: 50bps
Dots show 2 more cuts in 2024
2025 dots show 3.375 vs 4.125 previously
Despite the big change, the bond market is not going completely crazy. Trading levels are ...
MBS are now down 7 ticks (.22) on the day and 5 ticks (.16) from the AM highs. Because those AM highs occurred very close to many lenders' rate sheet print times, early negative reprices ca...
There is special providence in a 50bp Fed rate cut. If it be now, 'tis not to come (until the next Fed meeting perhaps). If it be not to come, it will be now: if it be not now, y...
This morning's Retail Sales headline was stronger than expected, but the sub-components (analogous to something like core CPI as opposed to headline CPI) painted a flatter picture. As ...
Retail Sales
0.1 vs -0.2 f'cast, 1.0 prev
Retail Sales excluding autos
0.1 vs 0.2 f'cast, 0.4 prev
Bonds were barely stronger overnight and are losing just a...
So far in the new week, bonds have rallied a bit in the overnight session and sold off a bit after this morning's stronger NY Fed Manufacturing data. The result is a fairly flat morning wit...
NY Fed Manufacturing
11.5 vs -3.9 f'cast, -4.7 prev
Bonds were moderately stronger in the overnight session without any excitement in terms of data or headlines apart from a Blo...
Today's only potentially relevant economic data was the 10am Consumer Sentiment data. This report comes out twice a month, once in "preliminary" form earlier in the month and then in "final...
There's been some back and forth this morning and no major moves, but MBS have just trickled to the weakest levels of the day with 5.0 coupons down an eighth of a point on the day and 6 ticks (.1...
Thursday brings this week's last opportunity for the market to react to moderately important economic data before next week's Fed announcement. So far, it looks like fireworks are not on th...
Jobless Claims
230k vs 230k f'cast, 227k prev
Core PPI MM
0.3 vs 0.2 f'cast, -0.2 prev
Core PPY YY
2.4 vs 2.5 f'cast, 2.4 prev
Jobless Claims was prob...
This is more of a heads-up as opposed to an alert for most lenders considering the timing of rate sheets. In fact, some lenders who priced early in the day could still be considering P...
Heading into today's CPI data, there were valid doubts about the data's role as one of the two biggest market movers (the jobs report being the other). Those doubts proved to be well founde...
The new week is off to a nice, anti-climactic start. Monday morning's yields were slightly higher at first but fell into stronger territory by mid day. Today brought a milder repeat o...
Despite heavy volume and volatility, Friday's trading session managed to conclude in roughly sideways territory. The new week is starting off on a calmer note with more directional tra...
Here's one of those rare moments where markets have been volatile enough that the slower lenders could be moving one way while the jumpier lenders make the opposite move.
In the current ...
At first glance, this morning's jobs report suggested a modest but clearly-defined increase in the likelihood of a 50bp rate cut from the Fed in 2 weeks. Headline nonfarm payrolls came in a...
