MBS hit their highs of the day just after noon ET and have corrected a bit since then. While 5.5 coupons are still up a quarter point, they're down just over an eighth of a point from the h...
This week's biggest to-do in terms of economic reports was this morning's PCE inflation data. The fact that the Fed just said it was shifting its primary focus away from the labor mark...
M/M Core PCE
0.1 vs 0.2 f'cast, 0.3 prev
Y/Y Core PCE
2.8 vs 2.9 f'cast, 2.8 prev
Bonds were already slightly stronger overnight and are adding to gains following t...
The takeaway from yesterday's Fed announcement was twofold. First, the Fed is much closer to being done cutting rates than it anticipated in September. This accounts for the sharp sell-off ...
Bonds have been selling off steadily in the long end of the yield curve all morning. There had been limited spillover to MBS until just recently, but volatility began picking up over the pa...
This is just an amplification of the previous alert just after 2pm. Bonds have continued to sell off. At first, it was based on the dot plot and the small verbiage change in the annou...
MBS are down a quick eighth of a point and 10yr yields are up 2.4bps at 4.425. The reaction so far is predicated on the dot plot moving up more than market expectations. More to follo...
Recent indicators suggest that economic activity has continued to expand at a solid pace. Since earlier in the year, labor market conditions have generally eased, and the unemployment rate has mo...
Bonds were moderately weaker overnight but have been pushing back in fits and starts in early trading. This has been a more uneven process for MBS as 5.5 coupons lost a majority of their ea...
MBS are underperforming Treasuries at the moment, even if we use 5yr yields as a benchmark. 10yr yields are down 0.2bps at 4.399 (i.e. slightly stronger).
MBS are now back in weaker terr...
Yesterday, it was S&P Global PMI data. Today it's Retail Sales. Both were stronger than expected. Both failed to cause any lasting weakness in bonds. Today's reaction ...
Retail Sales
0.7 vs 0.5 f'cast, 0.4 prev
Retail Sales excluding autos
0.2 vs 0.4 f'cast, 0.2 prev
There are several popular "internals" to examine when it comes to ...
Bonds were modestly stronger in the overnight session, and although domestic traders quickly erased the gains in the AM hours, the selling is currently stalling out near unchanged levels. I...
NY Fed Manufacturing
.20 vs 12 f'cast, 31.2 prev
S&P Services PMI
58.5 vs 55.7 f'cast, 56.1 prev
Bonds drifted to slightly stronger levels in the overnight sess...
Just a heads up that the bad times continue to roll. MBS are now down 10 ticks (.31) on the day and another eighth of a point from 10am (the time of the last alert).
Lenders are in...
Bonds can't seem to catch a break this week. Data hasn't necessarily been unfriendly either with both CPI and PPI hitting forecasts at the core monthly level (not to mention higher-than-exp...
While there has been some economic data this morning, it's not responsible for any of the movement we've seen (or any movement ever, really). But there has been steady selling since 4:30am ...
Additional losses now with MBS down 6 ticks (.19) on the day and 5 ticks (.16) from the AM highs. There's just a bit more negative reprice risk as bonds continue pushing into weaker territo...
This morning's Producer Price Index (PPI) came in hotter than expected in year-over-year terms (3.4 vs 3.2 at the core level). Traders were mostly able to look past that given that the most recen...
The European bond market's reaction to the ECB announcement and press conference has been bad for bonds. EU yields have spiked noticeably and they've been dragging US yields higher in conce...
Despite a reasonably strong 10yr Treasury auction, bonds have drifted to the weakest levels of the day. 10yr yields are now up 4.3bps at 4.264. MBS are back down to 'unchanged' levels, just...
Today's headline and core CPI readings were both perfectly in line with forecasts. After the data came out, bonds rallied and Fed Funds Futures moved to price in a near certainty of a Fed r...
Bonds are done with econ data for the day but have nonetheless found a reason to turn around and give up a noticeable amount of this morning's gains. Perhaps 10yr Traders "remembered" they ...
Yesterday's closing commentary also noted "inconsequential weakness," and there's not really a better way to refer to this morning's modest losses. Once again, they arrive in excruciatingly...
MBS are now down an eighth of a point from AM rate sheet print times. As such, the jumpiest lenders could technically justify a negative reprice, but bonds are generally holding in a more s...
Up until last Friday, 10yr yields closed at 4.17% for 5 days in a row. While that's technically "resistance," we're not complaining considering that's more than 30bps below the highs from 2 weeks...
Bonds are still in stronger territory on the day, but MBS are now down an eighth of a point from some lenders' morning rate sheet print times. The jumpiest lenders could technically justify...
We all know that today's jobs report is the most important economic data on an given month. We also know that a higher payroll count tends to be bad for bonds/rates. So why are bonds rallyi...
Jobless Claims
224k vs 215k f'cast, 213k prev
Continued Claims
1871k vs 1910k f'cast, 1896k prev
At first glance, the 224k figure in jobless claims may seem l...
Bonds drifted steadily higher in yield during the overnight session with most of the weakness seen after European markets opened. The net effect was roughly 4bp increase in 10yr yields and an eig...
ISM Services
52.1 vs 55.5 f'cast, 56.0 prev
ISM Services PMI is today's biggest economic data and it is also the biggest miss. Business activity (a sub component of the dat...
ADP Employment
146k vs 150k f'cast, 233k prev
Bonds were moderately weaker overnight but have bounced back ever so slightly after this data. MBS are down about an eighth of...
