MBS and Treasury Markets Archive

Stronger Start After Cooler PCE, But Don't Expect Miracles - Fri, December 20, 2:54 PM

This week's biggest to-do in terms of economic reports was this morning's PCE inflation data. The fact that the Fed just said it was shifting its primary focus away from the labor mark...

Fri, December 20, 1:34 PM

PCE Cooler Than Expected. Bonds Rallying Modestly - Fri, December 20, 1:34 PM

M/M Core PCE 0.1 vs 0.2 f'cast, 0.3 prev Y/Y Core PCE 2.8 vs 2.9 f'cast, 2.8 prev Bonds were already slightly stronger overnight and are adding to gains following t...

Thu, December 19, 9:30 PM

Fairly Uneventful Follow-Up to Fed Day - Thu, December 19, 9:30 PM

MBS Recap Fairly Uneventful Follow-Up to Fed Day MBS Recap Matthew Graham | 4:29 P...

Thu, December 19, 3:29 PM

Weaker Momentum Continues, Regardless of Data - Thu, December 19, 3:29 PM

The takeaway from yesterday's Fed announcement was twofold. First, the Fed is much closer to being done cutting rates than it anticipated in September. This accounts for the sharp sell-off ...

Thu, December 19, 3:05 PM

MBS Down More Than an Eighth - Thu, December 19, 3:05 PM

Bonds have been selling off steadily in the long end of the yield curve all morning. There had been limited spillover to MBS until just recently, but volatility began picking up over the pa...

Thu, December 19, 1:37 PM

Mixed Bag of Data But No Major Reaction So Far - Thu, December 19, 1:37 PM

GDP 3.1 vs 2.8 f'cast, 3.0 prev Philly Fed Index -16.4 vs 3.0 f'cast, -5.5 prev Philly Fed Prices 31.2 vs 26.6 prev Jobless Claims 220k vs 230...

Wed, December 18, 10:07 PM

Dots and Powell Were Much Less Friendly Than Markets Expected - Wed, December 18, 10:07 PM

MBS Recap Dots and Powell Were Much Less Friendly Than Markets Expected MBS Recap ...

Wed, December 18, 7:56 PM

Negative Reprices Are Highly Likely - Wed, December 18, 7:56 PM

This is just an amplification of the previous alert just after 2pm. Bonds have continued to sell off. At first, it was based on the dot plot and the small verbiage change in the annou...

Wed, December 18, 7:02 PM

First Move Following Fed is Weaker - Wed, December 18, 7:02 PM

MBS are down a quick eighth of a point and 10yr yields are up 2.4bps at 4.425. The reaction so far is predicated on the dot plot moving up more than market expectations. More to follo...

Wed, December 18, 7:01 PM

Here's What Changed in The New Fed Announcement - Wed, December 18, 7:01 PM

Recent indicators suggest that economic activity has continued to expand at a solid pace. Since earlier in the year, labor market conditions have generally eased, and the unemployment rate has mo...

Wed, December 18, 4:31 PM

Stronger Start After Initial Weakness - Wed, December 18, 4:31 PM

Bonds were moderately weaker overnight but have been pushing back in fits and starts in early trading. This has been a more uneven process for MBS as 5.5 coupons lost a majority of their ea...

Wed, December 18, 3:46 PM

Down an Eighth From AM Highs - Wed, December 18, 3:46 PM

MBS are underperforming Treasuries at the moment, even if we use 5yr yields as a benchmark. 10yr yields are down 0.2bps at 4.399 (i.e. slightly stronger). MBS are now back in weaker terr...

Tue, December 17, 8:58 PM

Calm and Resilient as Bonds Wait For Powell and The Dot Plot - Tue, December 17, 8:58 PM

MBS Recap Calm and Resilient as Bonds Wait For Powell and The Dot Plot MBS Recap M...

Tue, December 17, 4:05 PM

Once Again, Bonds Fight Back Against Stronger Data - Tue, December 17, 4:05 PM

Yesterday, it was S&P Global PMI data. Today it's Retail Sales. Both were stronger than expected. Both failed to cause any lasting weakness in bonds. Today's reaction ...

Tue, December 17, 1:40 PM

Hotter Retail Sales, But Internals Are Softer. Bonds Not Mad - Tue, December 17, 1:40 PM

Retail Sales 0.7 vs 0.5 f'cast, 0.4 prev Retail Sales excluding autos 0.2 vs 0.4 f'cast, 0.2 prev There are several popular "internals" to examine when it comes to ...

Mon, December 16, 9:22 PM

Bonds Hold Ground Despite Unfriendly Econ Data - Mon, December 16, 9:22 PM

MBS Recap Bonds Hold Ground Despite Unfriendly Econ Data MBS Recap Matthew Graham ...

Mon, December 16, 5:26 PM

More Stable Start, For Now - Mon, December 16, 5:26 PM

Bonds were modestly stronger in the overnight session, and although domestic traders quickly erased the gains in the AM hours, the selling is currently stalling out near unchanged levels. I...

Mon, December 16, 2:52 PM

Losing Ground After S&P PMI - Mon, December 16, 2:52 PM

NY Fed Manufacturing .20 vs 12 f'cast, 31.2 prev S&P Services PMI 58.5 vs 55.7 f'cast, 56.1 prev Bonds drifted to slightly stronger levels in the overnight sess...

Fri, December 13, 9:55 PM

Why So Much Selling in Bonds? - Fri, December 13, 9:55 PM

MBS Recap Why So Much Selling in Bonds? MBS Recap Matthew Graham | 4:55 PM ...

Fri, December 13, 5:18 PM

MBS Down Another Eighth From Previous Alert - Fri, December 13, 5:18 PM

Just a heads up that the bad times continue to roll. MBS are now down 10 ticks (.31) on the day and another eighth of a point from 10am (the time of the last alert). Lenders are in...

Fri, December 13, 4:42 PM

Another Red Day. Is There Any Reason For Hope? - Fri, December 13, 4:42 PM

Bonds can't seem to catch a break this week. Data hasn't necessarily been unfriendly either with both CPI and PPI hitting forecasts at the core monthly level (not to mention higher-than-exp...

Fri, December 13, 3:01 PM

MBS Already Down More Than an Eighth of a Point - Fri, December 13, 3:01 PM

While there has been some economic data this morning, it's not responsible for any of the movement we've seen (or any movement ever, really). But there has been steady selling since 4:30am ...

Thu, December 12, 9:36 PM

Mediocre Data Has Done Nothing to Help Bonds - Thu, December 12, 9:36 PM

MBS Recap Mediocre Data Has Done Nothing to Help Bonds MBS Recap Matthew Graham | ...

Thu, December 12, 7:02 PM

More New Lows - Thu, December 12, 7:02 PM

Additional losses now with MBS down 6 ticks (.19) on the day and 5 ticks (.16) from the AM highs. There's just a bit more negative reprice risk as bonds continue pushing into weaker territo...

Thu, December 12, 3:27 PM

Solid Start Despite Hotter PPI, But Europe Has Other Ideas - Thu, December 12, 3:27 PM

This morning's Producer Price Index (PPI) came in hotter than expected in year-over-year terms (3.4 vs 3.2 at the core level). Traders were mostly able to look past that given that the most recen...

Thu, December 12, 3:02 PM

Giving Up All The AM Gains - Thu, December 12, 3:02 PM

The European bond market's reaction to the ECB announcement and press conference has been bad for bonds. EU yields have spiked noticeably and they've been dragging US yields higher in conce...

Thu, December 12, 1:44 PM

Mixed Data, But Decent Reaction So Far - Thu, December 12, 1:44 PM

Core Producer Prices MM 0.2 vs 0.2 f'cast, 0.3 prev Core Producer Prices YY 3.4 vs 3.2 f'cast, 3.1 prev Jobless Claims 242k vs 220k f'cast, 224k prev ...

Wed, December 11, 9:16 PM

Why Bonds Sold Off After a Decent AM Rally - Wed, December 11, 9:16 PM

MBS Recap Why Bonds Sold Off After a Decent AM Rally MBS Recap Matthew Graham | 4:...

Wed, December 11, 6:43 PM

Weakest Levels of The Day - Wed, December 11, 6:43 PM

Despite a reasonably strong 10yr Treasury auction, bonds have drifted to the weakest levels of the day. 10yr yields are now up 4.3bps at 4.264. MBS are back down to 'unchanged' levels, just...

Wed, December 11, 3:52 PM

Why Bonds Rallied After CPI (And Why They Reversed Course an Hour Later) - Wed, December 11, 3:52 PM

Today's headline and core CPI readings were both perfectly in line with forecasts. After the data came out, bonds rallied and Fed Funds Futures moved to price in a near certainty of a Fed r...

Wed, December 11, 3:33 PM

MBS More Than an Eighth Below Highs - Wed, December 11, 3:33 PM

Bonds are done with econ data for the day but have nonetheless found a reason to turn around and give up a noticeable amount of this morning's gains. Perhaps 10yr Traders "remembered" they ...

Wed, December 11, 1:46 PM

CPI Right on The Screws. Bonds Rallying a Bit - Wed, December 11, 1:46 PM

Core M/M CPI 0.3 vs 0.3 f'cast, 0.3 prev unrounded, 0.308 Core Y/Y CPI 3.3 vs 3.3 f'cast, 3.3 prev Shelter CPI M/M 0.336 vs .382 prev Bonds h...

Tue, December 10, 9:13 PM

Ready For Anything After Pre-CPI Consolidation - Tue, December 10, 9:13 PM

MBS Recap Ready For Anything After Pre-CPI Consolidation MBS Recap Matthew Graham ...

Tue, December 10, 3:40 PM

Inconsequential Weakness Part 2 - Tue, December 10, 3:40 PM

Yesterday's closing commentary also noted "inconsequential weakness," and there's not really a better way to refer to this morning's modest losses. Once again, they arrive in excruciatingly...

Mon, December 9, 10:02 PM

Inconsequential Weakness - Mon, December 9, 10:02 PM

MBS Recap Inconsequential Weakness MBS Recap Matthew Graham | 5:02 PM ...

Mon, December 9, 8:29 PM

MBS Down an Eighth From AM Levels - Mon, December 9, 8:29 PM

MBS are now down an eighth of a point from AM rate sheet print times. As such, the jumpiest lenders could technically justify a negative reprice, but bonds are generally holding in a more s...

Mon, December 9, 3:38 PM

Reinforcing The Range - Mon, December 9, 3:38 PM

Up until last Friday, 10yr yields closed at 4.17% for 5 days in a row. While that's technically "resistance," we're not complaining considering that's more than 30bps below the highs from 2 weeks...

Fri, December 6, 9:57 PM

Solid Conclusion to a Solid Week. Has The Tide Turned? - Fri, December 6, 9:57 PM

MBS Recap Solid Conclusion to a Solid Week. Has The Tide Turned? MBS Recap Matthew...

Fri, December 6, 4:10 PM

MBS Down an Eighth From AM Highs - Fri, December 6, 4:10 PM

Bonds are still in stronger territory on the day, but MBS are now down an eighth of a point from some lenders' morning rate sheet print times. The jumpiest lenders could technically justify...

Fri, December 6, 2:52 PM

Why Are Bonds Rallying Despite a Seemingly Decent Jobs Report? - Fri, December 6, 2:52 PM

We all know that today's jobs report is the most important economic data on an given month. We also know that a higher payroll count tends to be bad for bonds/rates. So why are bonds rallyi...

Fri, December 6, 1:36 PM

Payrolls at 227k vs 200k Forecast, Minimal Movement So Far - Fri, December 6, 1:36 PM

Nonfarm Payrolls 227k vs 200k f'cast, 36k prev Unemployment Rates 4.2 vs 4.2 f'cast, 4.1 prev Participation Rate 62.5 vs 62.7 f'cast, 62.6 prev ...

Thu, December 5, 9:10 PM

Calm Week So Far, But All Bets Are Off After Jobs Report - Thu, December 5, 9:10 PM

MBS Recap Calm Week So Far, But All Bets Are Off After Jobs Report MBS Recap Matth...

Thu, December 5, 1:46 PM

Jobless Claims Aren't as High as They Seem - Thu, December 5, 1:46 PM

Jobless Claims 224k vs 215k f'cast, 213k prev Continued Claims 1871k vs 1910k f'cast, 1896k prev At first glance, the 224k figure in jobless claims may seem l...

Wed, December 4, 9:34 PM

No Whammies From Powell as Rates Rally on ISM Data - Wed, December 4, 9:34 PM

MBS Recap No Whammies From Powell as Rates Rally on ISM Data MBS Recap Matthew Gra...

Wed, December 4, 5:00 PM

Friendly Data Helping Erase Overnight Weakness - Wed, December 4, 5:00 PM

Bonds drifted steadily higher in yield during the overnight session with most of the weakness seen after European markets opened. The net effect was roughly 4bp increase in 10yr yields and an eig...

Wed, December 4, 3:03 PM

Stronger Gains After Weaker ISM Data - Wed, December 4, 3:03 PM

ISM Services 52.1 vs 55.5 f'cast, 56.0 prev ISM Services PMI is today's biggest economic data and it is also the biggest miss. Business activity (a sub component of the dat...

Wed, December 4, 1:18 PM

ADP Employment Right in Line With Forecast - Wed, December 4, 1:18 PM

ADP Employment 146k vs 150k f'cast, 233k prev Bonds were moderately weaker overnight but have bounced back ever so slightly after this data. MBS are down about an eighth of...

Tue, December 3, 8:53 PM