Bonds are losing even more ground at the 4pm NYSE close with 10yr yields now up 10bps at 4.387 and MBS down nearly 3/8ths of a point. If you haven't seen a negative reprice yet, it's becomi...
This morning's most notable scheduled event and biggest potential market mover was the release of May's PCE price index, the Fed's favorite inflation metric. Indeed the biggest volume spike and m...
The sell off is extending with MBS now down a quarter point from rate sheet print times. This makes negative reprices more likely.
10yr yields are up 5.3bps at 4.34.
This morning's post-PCE bond rally had a bit of a month/quarter-end boost, it seems. In other words, some month end trading may have been waiting to make sure PCE didn't drastically change ...
Core M/M PCE
0.1 vs 0.1 f'cast
last month revised to 0.3 from 0.2
Core Y/Y PCE
2.6 vs 2.6 f'cast
Right on target, but the confirmation of inflation progress is w...
It's been an odd morning for the bond market, but not in an objectionable way. In not so many words, bonds are rallying somewhat nicely despite an absence of obviously compelling data. ...
Jobless Claims
233k vs 236k f'cast, 239k prev
Continued Claims
1839k vs 1820k f'cast, 1821k prev
Durable Goods
0.1 vs -0.1 f'cast
last month revised down to 0....
Modest improvement after the 5yr auction has given way to modest weakness and MBS are now at the lows of the day down 7 ticks (.22) in 5.5 coupons and 5 ticks (.16) in 6.0 coupons.
...
5yr Treasury Auction
4.331 vs 4.335 expectations
Bid to Cover
2.35 vs 2.39 recent average
Auction Grade: B
Bonds have generally been weaker on the day, pushing t...
The absence of relevant domestic market movers has been a theme all week. While that has gone hand in hand with relatively uninspired bond market movement so far, today has been complicated...
MBS are now down roughly an eighth of a point from some lenders' rate sheet print times. As such, some of the jumpier lenders could be considering negative reprices.
That said, the losse...
Philly Fed Non-Manufacturing Index
15.1 vs 7.3 previously
Canada CPI
0.6 vs 0.2 month over month
There is no economic data listed on the MBS Live econ calendar for ...
With last Friday's range in 10yr yields of roughly 4.22 to 4.27, there was narrow window for today being an "inside day" (i.e. when the previous sessions highs were higher and lows were lower).&n...
S&P Global (formerly Markit) PMIs are the standard PMI around the world, but have long been second fiddle to ISM PMIs in the U.S. That's certainly still the case, but in this era of eve...
On Tuesday, bonds had an initial, positive reaction to the Retail Sales data that clearly ended mere minutes after the release. Yields trended slightly higher in a narrow range into 11am at...
It's nearly impossible to avoid hearing the phrase "data dependent" when following financial markets these days and this morning's movement is the latest reminder. A mere miss of 0.1 v...
Retail Sales
0.1 vs 0.2 f'cast
last month revised down to -0.2 from 0.0
Bonds were unchanged overnight and in position to move in either direction in response to this morning'...
Last week, MBS underperformance was front and center. One of the justifications was the fact that MBS almost always underperform when Treasuries go on a nice bull run and las week certainly...
The bond market has a lot on its mind after this past week of economic data and events. Inflation quickly and increasingly looks like it may (finally) be turning the long-hoped-for corner.&...
Import Prices
-0.6 vs 0.0 f'cast, 0.6 prev
Export Prices
-0.4 vs 0.1 f'cast, 0.9 prev
Bonds backtracked on a majority of the overnight gains in the past half hour.&...
30yr auction
4.403 vs 4.418 expectations
bid to cover
2.49x vs 2.41x avg
This was a strong result considering bonds were already near their best levels heading into...
Most mortgage lenders didn't release rate sheets early enough for there to be too much negative reprice risk, but some lenders are seeing an eighth of a point drop versus rate sheet print times. ...
In a nutshell, this morning's economic data rapidly reversed the weakness seen after yesterday's Fed announcement, thus restoring the lowest yields achieved after yesterday's CPI data. Toda...
Month over month core PPI
0.0 vs 0.3 f'cast, 0.5 prev
Year over year core PPI
2.3 vs 2.4 f'cast, 2.4 prev
Jobless Claims
242k vs 225k f'cast, 229k prev
...
Powell did nothing to push back against the generally hawkish read of today's dot plot. He reminded markets that Fed members have the ability to change their dot in response to data and t...
FED OFFICIALS' MEDIAN VIEW OF FED FUNDS RATE AT END-2024 5.1% (PREV 4.6%)
FED: DOES NOT EXPECT IT WILL BE APPROPRIATE TO REDUCE POLICY TARGET RANGE UNTIL GAINING GREATER CONFIDENCE INFLATION I...
Recent indicators suggest that economic activity has continued to expand at a solid pace. Job gains have remained strong, and the unemployment rate has remained low. Inflation has eased over the ...
There are so many line items in the CPI data that it would be hard to imagine a truly perfect report. In today's case, one could still take exception to the persistent elevation of "shelter...
10yr Treasury auction
4.438 vs 4.458 expectations
bid to cover
2.67 vs 2.49 avg
This was a very well-received auction, both in terms of the yield award coming in 2...
MBS are now unchanged on the day, down nearly a quarter point from opening levels and just over an eighth of a point from some lenders' rate sheet print times. As such, those lenders could ...
Not every day is destined to be significant (or even interesting) for the bond market. Depending on the outcome of today's only relevant calendar event--this afternoon's 10yr Treasury aucti...
3yr Treasury Auction
4.659 vs 4.648 expectations
bid to cover 2.43x vs 2.57x avg
These are fairly weak stats for a 3yr auction--weak enough to leave a bit of a mark on the res...
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) has done more than any other report to shape trends in the bond market in the past year. At times (such as the middle and end of 2023), CPI provided hope...
