MBS and Treasury Markets Archive

Victor Emmel

Mortgage Advisor

Goodway Mortgage

P: (801) 285-0222

M: (801) 819-5901

E: victor@goodwaymortgage.com

www.goodwaymortgage.com

Get Pre-Approved

Home Value Check

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Ste 3137
South Jordan UT 84095

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Today, 3:13 PM

NFP Bond Rout Starting to Level Off, Hopefully - Today, 3:13 PM

Friday's NFP gave the bond market a solid whack, sending yields quickly higher. Momentum remained intact over the weekend and through Monday. Overseas markets were more willing to try...

Mon, 8:08 PM

Bonds Undergoing a Bit of a Reset - Mon, 8:08 PM

MBS Recap Bonds Undergoing a Bit of a Reset MBS Recap Matthew Graham | 4:06 PM ...

Mon, 2:27 PM

More Pain. Fewer Surprises - Mon, 2:27 PM

Here's a repeat of the lock/float considerations posted on Friday after the jobs report: "Friday's strong jobs report and resulting bond market rout change the calculus for rate expectations unti...

Fri, October 4, 8:45 PM

Who Lied About Jobs Numbers? - Fri, October 4, 8:45 PM

MBS Recap Who Lied About Jobs Numbers? MBS Recap Matthew Graham | 4:43 PM ...

Fri, October 4, 7:09 PM

Negative Reprices Are Possible For Some Lenders - Fri, October 4, 7:09 PM

Nothing new or interesting is happening in terms of data or headlines, but bonds are drifting to even lower lows. MBS are now down almost 5/8ths and the average lender is seeing more than a...

Fri, October 4, 3:32 PM

Huge Beat in Jobs Report; Bonds Reeling - Fri, October 4, 3:32 PM

It is a very simple day for the bond market. There was a ton of anticipation for today's jobs report after the past two iterations raised concerns about flagging labor market conditions.&nb...

Fri, October 4, 12:32 PM

Jobs Report Crushes Expectations. Here Come Higher Rates - Fri, October 4, 12:32 PM

Nonfarm Payrolls 254k vs 140k f'cast, 159k prev Unemployment Rate 4.1 vs 4.2 f'cast Wages 0.4 vs 0.3 f'cast last month revised up to 0.5 Nothing go...

Thu, October 3, 9:14 PM

ISM Makes For Negative NFP Lead-Off - Thu, October 3, 9:14 PM

MBS Recap ISM Makes For Negative NFP Lead-Off MBS Recap Matthew Graham | 5:13 PM ...

Thu, October 3, 6:51 PM

Negative Reprice Risk Increasing - Thu, October 3, 6:51 PM

There are no new developments or big ticket market movers in play--just a general drift into weaker territory, perhaps with a hint of anxiety that the sum of economic data tilts risks toward a st...

Thu, October 3, 2:05 PM

Additional Losses After Mixed ISM Data (UPDATED) - Thu, October 3, 2:05 PM

CORRECTION: The initial version of this alert incorrectly listed the headline ISM PMI as 55.2 vs 55.4. It is corrected below: ISM Services 54.9 vs 51.7 f'cast, 51.5 prev ISM E...

Thu, October 3, 1:46 PM

The Consolidation Game is Over - Thu, October 3, 1:46 PM

There are some labor market reports that cause some concern about a weaker job market. And while Jobless Claims is often thought to be a leading indicator, it is not one of those reports.&n...

Wed, October 2, 8:02 PM

Wednesday's Market Movement Raises Stakes for Friday - Wed, October 2, 8:02 PM

MBS Recap Wednesday's Market Movement Raises Stakes for Friday MBS Recap Matthew G...

Wed, October 2, 4:00 PM

Fairly Pronounced Reaction to ADP Data - Wed, October 2, 4:00 PM

The Fed's been saying it for several months and the market has been trading it accordingly for just as long: the focus has clearly shifted away from inflation and toward the labor market. T...

Wed, October 2, 12:26 PM

Weaker After ADP Employment Data - Wed, October 2, 12:26 PM

ADP Employment 143k vs 120k f'cast, 103k prev Bonds were already slightly weaker in the overnight session and have extended losses in the wake of the ADP data. This highlig...

Tue, October 1, 8:26 PM

Bonds Unexpectedly Forced to Focus on War Instead of Data - Tue, October 1, 8:26 PM

MBS Recap Bonds Unexpectedly Forced to Focus on War Instead of Data MBS Recap Matt...

Tue, October 1, 6:01 PM

MBS Down to Lows of The Day - Tue, October 1, 6:01 PM

MBS were at the highs of the day less than an hour ago but have quickly fallen to the lows as missile strikes in the Middle East are not immediately resulting in additional escalation. Earl...

Tue, October 1, 3:30 PM

Mixed Reaction to Mixed Data After Early Flight to Safety - Tue, October 1, 3:30 PM

This morning's slate of economic data is certainly higher-profile compared to yesterday with JOLTS and ISM Manufacturing always capable of moving the needle. Ironically, it was geopolitical...

Tue, October 1, 1:49 PM

Bonds Rallying on Israel/Iran Headlines - Tue, October 1, 1:49 PM

The following unconfirmed newswire is causing a flight to safety in the bond market: UNITED STATES HAS INDICATIONS THAT IRAN IS PREPARING TO IMMINENTLY LAUNCH A BALLISTIC MISSILE ATTACK AGAINS...

Mon, September 30, 9:26 PM

Moderate Losses For Bonds as Powell Says Fed Isn't in a Hurry to Cut - Mon, September 30, 9:26 PM

MBS Recap Moderate Losses For Bonds as Powell Stays " Hawkish " MBS Recap Matthew ...

Mon, September 30, 6:14 PM

Reprice Risk Increasing - Mon, September 30, 6:14 PM

Bonds are losing ground more quickly after Powell said the Fed isn't in a hurry to cut rates quickly. MBS now down more than a quarter on the day and nearly a quarter point from AM rate she...

Mon, September 30, 4:21 PM

Big Data Week With Jobs Report on Friday - Mon, September 30, 4:21 PM

Momentum has been building and focus has been shifting. After a few years of inflation reports giving the jobs report a run for its money in terms relevance to the bond market, things have ...

Mon, September 30, 3:16 PM

MBS Down About an Eighth From Highs - Mon, September 30, 3:16 PM

Bonds began the day in weaker territory but attempted to bounce heading into the 10am hour. They've been fading again since then and are now down 7 ticks (.22) on the day and roughly an eig...

Fri, September 27, 9:22 PM

Finally Cooling Off Just in Time to Heat Up Again - Fri, September 27, 9:22 PM

MBS Recap Finally Cooling Off Just in Time to Heat Up Again MBS Recap Matthew Grah...

Fri, September 27, 4:05 PM

Inflation Data No Longer The Big To-Do, But At Least It's Not Hurting - Fri, September 27, 4:05 PM

Just a few months ago, the big ticket inflation reports were just as relevant as the jobs report in terms of their ability to cause movement in the bond market. As CPI/PCE calmed down over ...

Fri, September 27, 12:36 PM

PCE Comes in Just Below Forecasts. Bonds Aren't Mad - Fri, September 27, 12:36 PM

M/M Core PCE 0.1 vs 0.2 f'cast, 0.2 prev Unrounded 0.13 Y/Y Core PCE 2.7 vs 2.7 f'cast, 2.6 prev PCE inflation data only wishes it could be in the same league as...

Thu, September 26, 9:14 PM

More Resilient Today, But It's Still All About Data - Thu, September 26, 9:14 PM

MBS Recap More Resilient Today, But It's Still All About Data MBS Recap Matthew Gr...

Thu, September 26, 3:41 PM

Stronger Data Saps Overnight Gains - Thu, September 26, 3:41 PM

At the risk of tempting fate by discussing a leveling-off of the post-Fed correction again, the overnight session saw the most compelling case yet for the correction having run its course. ...

Thu, September 26, 2:32 PM

MBS Down to New Lows - Thu, September 26, 2:32 PM

After feigning a correction back to unchanged levels, bonds are on the run again. 10yr yields are now up 3.7bps to the highs of the day at 3.82. MBS are down more than an eighth on the d...

Thu, September 26, 12:35 PM

Losing Overnight Gains After Stronger Claims Data - Thu, September 26, 12:35 PM

Jobless Claims 218k vs 225k f'cast, 219k prev Durable Goods 0.0 vs -2.6 f'cast, 9.8 prev Core Durable Goods 0.2 vs 0.0 f'cast, -0.2 prev GDP (Q2, revisio...

Wed, September 25, 8:49 PM

Is it Time to Worry About Bond Market Losses? - Wed, September 25, 8:49 PM

MBS Recap Is it Time to Worry About Bond Market Losses? MBS Recap Matthew Graham |...

Wed, September 25, 5:28 PM

Modest Additional Weakness - Wed, September 25, 5:28 PM

(Edited: previous version had 5yr yield stats instead of 10yr) Negative reprice risk is now slightly higher than at the time of the last alert. MBS are down several more ticks--9 on the ...

Wed, September 25, 3:35 PM

Bonds Remain Tentative Without Fresh Supply of Downbeat Data - Wed, September 25, 3:35 PM

The bond market is in a bit of a lull with any excess buying demand flowing to the shorter end of the yield curve. Meanwhile, the long end has been drifting slightly higher in yield in a fa...

Wed, September 25, 3:33 PM

New Lows For MBS - Wed, September 25, 3:33 PM

While there hasn't been any decisive selling sprees or clear connections to news/data, bonds have been leaking to weaker levels in fits and starts throughout the morning. MBS just hit new l...

Tue, September 24, 8:46 PM

Early Weakness Erased After Labor Market Warning Signs - Tue, September 24, 8:46 PM

MBS Recap Early Weakness Erased After Labor Market Warning Signs MBS Recap Matthew...

Tue, September 24, 2:50 PM

Bonds Not Out of Woods Yet, But Econ Data is Helping - Tue, September 24, 2:50 PM

Monday's trading session offered some hope that the post-Fed correction was losing steam, but purely from a technical standpoint. All we really know at times like this is that bonds were ke...

Tue, September 24, 2:30 PM

Losses Erased After Weak Confidence Data - Tue, September 24, 2:30 PM

FHFA Home Prices 0.1 vs 0.2 f'cast, 0.0 prev FHFA Annual Change 4.5 vs 5.3 prev Case Shiller Home Prices 0.0 vs 0.6 prev Case Shiller Annual Change ...

Mon, September 23, 8:57 PM

Post Fed Correction Leveling Off? - Mon, September 23, 8:57 PM

MBS Recap Post Fed Correction Leveling Off? MBS Recap Matthew Graham | 4:56 PM ...

Mon, September 23, 2:42 PM

Off to a Weaker Start as Post-Fed Correction Continues - Mon, September 23, 2:42 PM

We closed last week with the idea of "buy the rumor, sell the news" seemingly being a good way to think about the time leading into and away from the Fed's 50bp rate cut. While bonds looked...

Mon, September 23, 1:50 PM

Losing Some Ground After S&P PMI Data - Mon, September 23, 1:50 PM

S&P Services PMI 55.4 vs 55.3 f'cast, 55.7 prev S&P Manufacturing PMI 47.0 vs 48.5 f'cast 47.9 prev Bonds were slightly weaker overnight with some addition...

Fri, September 20, 8:20 PM

Modestly Weaker But Ultimately Uneventful - Fri, September 20, 8:20 PM

MBS Recap Modestly Weaker But Ultimately Uneventful MBS Recap Matthew Graham | 4:2...

Fri, September 20, 8:15 PM

Back Near Weaker Levels - Fri, September 20, 8:15 PM

The 4pm NYSE close created some volatility for the bond market today--something that sometimes happens--but MBS were already drifting off their afternoon highs starting at 1pm. 5.0...

Fri, September 20, 4:04 PM

Erasing Most of The Weakness After Waller Comments - Fri, September 20, 4:04 PM

Fed's Waller is out with several rate-friendly comments and bonds are reacting. Here are the newswires: FED''S WALLER WHEN ASKED ABOUT THE 50 BPS RATE CUT: IT WAS THE RIGHT NUMBER FED...

Fri, September 20, 2:36 PM

MBS Down More Than an Eighth of a Point - Fri, September 20, 2:36 PM

MBS are now down 5 ticks (.16) on the day and 6 ticks (.19) from the AM highs. Those highs were early enough in the morning that most lenders are not seeing this much of a drop from the tim...

Fri, September 20, 2:32 PM

Bonds Continue "Selling The News" - Fri, September 20, 2:32 PM

Wednesday's Fed rate cut was the worst kept secret in the financial world for months, and the 50bp rate cut was increasingly suspected in the week leading up to the announcement. You've lik...

Thu, September 19, 8:02 PM

MBS Easily Outperform Longer-Term Treasuries - Thu, September 19, 8:02 PM

MBS Recap MBS Easily Outperform Longer-Term Treasuries MBS Recap Matthew Graham | ...

Thu, September 19, 7:37 PM

Mixed Reaction to Econ Data; Surprisingly Calm Post-Fed Day - Thu, September 19, 7:37 PM

The post-Fed overnight session was surprisingly calm. In fact, relative to the magnitude of yesterday's events and information, this is surely one of the quietest global market reactions on...

Thu, September 19, 12:37 PM

Slightly Weaker After AM Econ Data - Thu, September 19, 12:37 PM

Jobless Claims 219k vs 230k f'cast, 231k prev Philly Fed Index 1.7 vs -1.0 f'cast -7.0 prev Bonds began the day in slightly stronger territory after a surprisingly...

Wed, September 18, 9:16 PM

Bonds Lose Ground Despite Larger Fed Rate Cut - Wed, September 18, 9:16 PM

MBS Recap Bonds Lose Ground Despite Larger Fed Rate Cut MBS Recap Matthew Graham |...

Wed, September 18, 7:08 PM

MBS Down More Than a Quarter From Highs - Wed, September 18, 7:08 PM

MBS have been selling steadily since the start of Powell's press conference. 5.0 coupons are off a quarter point during that time and 10yr yields are up 5bps on the day and 7bps from the lo...

Wed, September 18, 6:07 PM

First Move is Stronger As Fed Cuts 50bps - Wed, September 18, 6:07 PM

Rate Cut: 50bps Dots show 2 more cuts in 2024 2025 dots show 3.375 vs 4.125 previously Despite the big change, the bond market is not going completely crazy. Trading levels are ...

Victor Emmel

Mortgage Advisor

Goodway Mortgage

P: (801) 285-0222

M: (801) 819-5901

E: victor@goodwaymortgage.com

www.goodwaymortgage.com

Get Pre-Approved

Home Value Check

Mortgage Consultation

10808 S River Front Pkwy
Ste 3137
South Jordan UT 84095

License:

NMLS 133605

CO NMLS 2235920

Ask Me a Question

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