MBS and Treasury Markets Archive

Dena Rodriguez

Mortgage Banker

The Federal Savings Bank

P: (314) 451-2484

M: (830) 310-4939

E: drodriguez@thefederalsavingsbank.com

www.thefederalsavingsbank.com/denarodriguez

www.denarodriguez.com

1 South 4th Street
Columbia MO 65201

License:

1250387

Today, 2:02 PM

Higher Bar For Additional Gains Despite Lower PPI - Today, 2:02 PM

This morning's PPI did its best impression of yesterday's CPI with the core monthly number coming in at 0.1 vs 0.3 forecast. In yesterday's case, this was good enough for a reasonably big rally.&...

Today, 12:36 PM

PPI Comes in Lower. Bonds Rallying Further - Today, 12:36 PM

Core MM PPI 0.1 vs 0.3 f'cast, -0.2 prev Core YY PPI 3.0 vs 3.1 f'cast, 3.2 prev Monthly Headline PPI 0.1 vs 0.2 f'cast, -0.2 prev Jobless Claims 24...

Wed, 8:19 PM

Nice Rally on Data and Auction Results - Wed, 8:19 PM

MBS Recap Nice Rally on Data and Auction Results MBS Recap Matthew Graham | 4:16 P...

Wed, 1:53 PM

CPI Comes in Low Enough to Help - Wed, 1:53 PM

Heading into today's CPI data, our stance was that we'd need to see the monthly core number come in at 0.1 vs 0.3 in order to see much of a friendly response, and that is exactly what's playing o...

Wed, 12:38 PM

Inflation Tanks Enough For Bonds to Respond - Wed, 12:38 PM

Core CPI m/m 0.130 vs 0.3 f'cast, 0.2 prev Core CPI y/y 2.8 vs 2.9 f'cast, 2.8 prev Bonds were modestly weaker in the overnight session but have been willing ...

Tue, 7:49 PM

No Drama Today. How About Tomorrow? - Tue, 7:49 PM

MBS Recap No Drama Today. How About Tomorrow? MBS Recap Matthew Graham | 3:49 PM ...

Tue, 2:46 PM

Bumpy Start; No Data; Waiting on Auction and Trade Headlines - Tue, 2:46 PM

Although bonds are experiencing a small amount of volatility this morning, it isn't consequential in the bigger picture. Quick-but-modest weakness at 10:15am ET has essentially taken MBS ba...

Tue, 2:41 PM

MBS Down an Eighth From AM Highs - Tue, 2:41 PM

Many lenders are not yet out with their first rate sheet of the day. Others tend to have a slightly higher bar for reprice risk when bonds sell off at this time of day. All that to say that repri...

Mon, 7:56 PM

Gentle Rally Gently Reverses After Trade Headlines - Mon, 7:56 PM

MBS Recap Gentle Rally Gently Reverses After Trade Headlines MBS Recap Matthew Gra...

Mon, 2:12 PM

Shifting Gears After Friday's Volatility - Mon, 2:12 PM

Overnight and early-session trading confirm the bond market is shifting gears and re-entering a sort of cruise control in the prevailing range. Had last Friday's jobs report been as weak as some ...

Fri, June 6, 9:02 PM

Perfectly Logical Reaction to On-Target Data - Fri, June 6, 9:02 PM

MBS Recap Perfectly Logical Reaction to On-Target Data MBS Recap Matthew Graham | ...

Fri, June 6, 4:14 PM

Steady Losses; New Lows - Fri, June 6, 4:14 PM

Nothing new or exciting has happened since the jobs report this morning, but bonds have been selling to progressively weaker levels, even if the pace is super slow. With each tick lower in ...

Fri, June 6, 3:30 PM

Jobs Report Not Bad Enough to Justify The Lead-Off - Fri, June 6, 3:30 PM

The bond market was likely taking a bit of a lead-off ahead of today's jobs report, inspired by a string of weaker economic data over the past week. Wednesday's ADP and ISM data had an espe...

Fri, June 6, 12:34 PM

NFP Right in Line With Forecast; Some Selling - Fri, June 6, 12:34 PM

Nonfarm Payrolls 139k vs 130k f'cast, 147k prev Unemployment Rate 4.2 vs 4.2 f'cast/prev As we discussed yesterday, Wednesday's data led the market to price in a sl...

Thu, June 5, 8:05 PM

Bonds Dial Back Ahead of Big Jobs Report - Thu, June 5, 8:05 PM

MBS Recap Bonds Dial Back Ahead of Big Jobs Report MBS Recap Matthew Graham | 4:04...

Thu, June 5, 3:00 PM

Bonds Under More Pressure on Trade-Related Headlines - Thu, June 5, 3:00 PM

MBS are now down 2 ticks and 10yr yields are up 2.2bps at 4.378 after more details on the Trump/Xi phone call. Newswires are far from earth-shattering, but they've been enough to drive s...

Thu, June 5, 2:04 PM

Bumpy Start; Data Overshadowed by Other Events - Thu, June 5, 2:04 PM

Bonds began the morning in rally mode, even if not in an extreme way. Gains lasted for about 20 minutes before reversing. The shift was accompanied by slightly elevated volume, indica...

Thu, June 5, 1:26 PM

Bonds Losing Ground Despite Weaker Claims Data - Thu, June 5, 1:26 PM

Jobless Claims 247k vs 235k f'cast, 239k prev Continued Claims 1904k vs 1910k f'cast, 1907k prev Bonds began the session in slightly stronger territory and held gai...

Wed, June 4, 9:27 PM

Big Bond Rally After ADP and ISM - Wed, June 4, 9:27 PM

MBS Recap Big Bond Rally After ADP and ISM MBS Recap Matthew Graham | 5:24 PM ...

Wed, June 4, 2:28 PM

Weaker Econ Data. Lower Yields - Wed, June 4, 2:28 PM

It's been a fairly simple morning so far for the bond market. Both of the morning's key economic reports came in weaker than expected. In the case of ADP employment, that's fairly straightforward...

Wed, June 4, 12:25 PM

Small Improvement After ADP Employment Report - Wed, June 4, 12:25 PM

ADP Employment 37k vs 115k f'cast, 60k prev Bonds were mostly flat in the overnight session but have rallied about as much as one would expect in light of the substantially lower...

Tue, June 3, 8:47 PM

JOLTS Data Didn't Help, But it Didn't Hurt Much Either - Tue, June 3, 8:47 PM

MBS Recap JOLTS Data Didn't Help, But it Didn't Hurt Much Either MBS Recap Matthew...

Tue, June 3, 4:59 PM

Negative Reprice Risk Increasing - Tue, June 3, 4:59 PM

MBS are now down 3 ticks (.09) on the day. These are the lowest levels and more than an eighth of a point below most lenders' rate sheet print times. As such, negative reprices are in...

Tue, June 3, 2:40 PM

Down Over an Eighth From AM Highs - Tue, June 3, 2:40 PM

MBS are down 5 ticks (.16) from AM highs and an eighth of a point from the levels seen just before the 10am econ data. A few lenders released rates around that time, but they would need to be fee...

Tue, June 3, 2:35 PM

Fed and Data Temper Overnight Rally - Tue, June 3, 2:35 PM

First thing's first: the overnight rally was fairly modest with 10yr yields dropping about 3bps to 4.41 ahead of the domestic session. Given that these levels are/were in line with the lowe...

Mon, June 2, 9:27 PM

New Month Selling Trumps ISM Data - Mon, June 2, 9:27 PM

MBS Recap New Month Selling Trumps ISM Data MBS Recap Matthew Graham | 5:26 PM ...

Mon, June 2, 6:56 PM

Just a Bit More Reprice Risk - Mon, June 2, 6:56 PM

The first alert arrived amid minimal reprice risk due to morning rate sheet timing. Specifically, most lenders priced for the morning before the 10am rally and thus weren't seeing huge loss...

Mon, June 2, 3:41 PM

Negative Reprice Risk Increasing - Mon, June 2, 3:41 PM

Bonds are selling off to the weakest levels of the day for debatable reasons (GDP Now update showing 4.6 vs 3.8 prev, perhaps? But that seems like a stretch). 10yr yields are quick...

Mon, June 2, 2:51 PM

Softer Start Despite Tame ISM Manufacturing Data - Mon, June 2, 2:51 PM

The ISM Manufacturing PMI has more potential than most economic reports to cause a reaction in the bond market, even if it isn't perfectly consistent. As today's only big ticket data, it was...

Fri, May 30, 8:19 PM

Strongest Close of the Week After Well-Contained Month-End Volatility - Fri, May 30, 8:19 PM

MBS Recap Strongest Close of the Week After Well-Contained Month-End Volatility MBS Recap ...

Fri, May 30, 1:14 PM

Ho-Hum PCE Inflation Data Leaves Focus on Month-End Trading - Fri, May 30, 1:14 PM

Today's PCE Price Index is one of the two main consumer inflation reports put out by the US government. It's bigger and broader than CPI, but CPI comes out 2 weeks earlier than PCE. C...

Thu, May 29, 8:46 PM

Bonds Hold Morning Gains; No Reaction to Tariff Headlines - Thu, May 29, 8:46 PM

MBS Recap Bonds Hold Morning Gains; No Reaction to Tariff Headlines MBS Recap Matt...

Thu, May 29, 2:56 PM

Overnight Trading Makes No Guarantees - Thu, May 29, 2:56 PM

We have a primer in the MBS Live knowledge base regarding the potential for overnight news and bond trading to give a completely different impression of how the following day will eventually trad...

Thu, May 29, 12:35 PM

Small Boost From Claims and GDP Revisions - Thu, May 29, 12:35 PM

Jobless Claims 240k vs 230k f'cast, 226k prev Continued Claims 1919k vs 1890k f'cast GDP revision (q1) -0.2 vs -0.3 f'cast Corporate Profits -3.6 vs...

Wed, May 28, 8:51 PM

Minimal Movement Amid Absence of Data - Wed, May 28, 8:51 PM

MBS Recap Minimal Movement Amid Absence of Data MBS Recap Matthew Graham | 4:47 PM...

Wed, May 28, 4:14 PM

Hesitation Ahead of Treasury Auction and Month-End - Wed, May 28, 4:14 PM

After starting the holiday-shortened week on a positive note yesterday, bonds are already circling the wagons and encountering some resistance. This doesn't necessarily kill the notion of a suppo...

Wed, May 28, 1:50 PM

Down More Than an Eighth From Highs - Wed, May 28, 1:50 PM

MBS began the day flat, but jumped in the opening trades by nearly an eighth of a point. Bonds were steady until about 9am and have been losing ground since then. 5.5 coupons are down 3 tic...

Tue, May 27, 9:20 PM

Bonds Finally Seeing Some Support - Tue, May 27, 9:20 PM

MBS Recap Bonds Finally Seeing Some Support MBS Recap Matthew Graham | 5:19 PM ...

Tue, May 27, 3:33 PM

Japan? Something Else? Does it Matter? - Tue, May 27, 3:33 PM

Last week's overseas headlines raised questions about about a spillover from volatility in the Japanese bond market to US yields. At issue: attention-grabbing newswires regarding a surge in long-...

Fri, May 23, 7:34 PM

A Little Early Excitement - Fri, May 23, 7:34 PM

MBS Recap A Little Early Excitement MBS Recap Matthew Graham | 3:34 PM ...

Fri, May 23, 3:13 PM

Down a Quarter Point From Highs - Fri, May 23, 3:13 PM

Both stocks and bonds reversed course at the 9:30am NYSE open with bonds erasing most of the day's gains since then. MBS are now nearly unchanged and down exactly a quarter point from the h...

Fri, May 23, 2:37 PM

Wait... So Tariffs Are Good or Bad For Bonds Now? - Fri, May 23, 2:37 PM

The most notable development on what might otherwise have been a sleepy half-day ahead of a holiday weekend was Trump's "recommendation" of a 50% tariff on the EU, effective June 1st. ...

Thu, May 22, 8:38 PM

Slightly Stronger Because Not Every Day Can be Weaker - Thu, May 22, 8:38 PM

MBS Recap Slightly Stronger Because Not Every Day Can be Weaker MBS Recap Matthew ...

Thu, May 22, 2:06 PM

Conspicuous Absence of Volatility After Data and Spending Bill Vote - Thu, May 22, 2:06 PM

The most significant development of the overnight session was the early morning passage of the spending bill in the House. This resulted in only a modest extension of losses in stocks/bonds, most...

Wed, May 21, 8:34 PM

Treasury Auction Blamed as Bond Vigilantes' Smoking Gun - Wed, May 21, 8:34 PM

MBS Recap Treasury Auction Blamed as Bond Vigilantes' Smoking Gun MBS Recap Matthe...

Wed, May 21, 6:18 PM

Negative Reprices Becoming Likely Despite Stabilization in Bonds - Wed, May 21, 6:18 PM

MBS are now down half a point and have been struggling to make progress back in the other direction. 10yr yields are down 9.7bps at 4.583. Both have stabilized sideways, but absent a sharpe...

Wed, May 21, 5:17 PM

Weakest Levels After 20yr Bond Auction - Wed, May 21, 5:17 PM

20yr Treasury Auction 5.047 vs 5.035 forecast/WI Bid to cover 2.46 vs 2.47 avg Note for those who dig into auction stats, the 2.47x avg BTC (bid to cover) is the avg of the la...

Wed, May 21, 2:50 PM

Nothing For Bonds to Trade But Fiscal Disillusionment - Wed, May 21, 2:50 PM

We're now into the 3rd day of a week that's conspicuously lacking in relevant econ data. In addition, the looming holiday weekend hinders participation and increases potential volatility. Th...

Tue, May 20, 9:01 PM

Ultimately Sort of Flat if You Use Your Imagination - Tue, May 20, 9:01 PM

MBS Recap Ultimately Sort of Flat if You Use Your Imagination MBS Recap Matthew Gr...

Tue, May 20, 2:11 PM

Budget Battle Hitting Bonds Amid Empty Calendar - Tue, May 20, 2:11 PM

It's a holiday-shortened week with a relatively empty economic calendar, thus forcing the bond market to find its movement cues elsewhere. To some small extent, corporate bond issuance has had ...

Dena Rodriguez

Mortgage Banker

The Federal Savings Bank

P: (314) 451-2484

M: (830) 310-4939

E: drodriguez@thefederalsavingsbank.com

www.thefederalsavingsbank.com/denarodriguez

www.denarodriguez.com

1 South 4th Street
Columbia MO 65201

License:

1250387

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Reproduction or redistribution this newsletter, outside of the distribution services provided, is prohibited. Interest rate data provided in this newsletter are national averages. Rate/APR terms may differ. All information provided "as is" for informational purposes only.