MBS and Treasury Markets Archive

Minimal Impact From PCE Data - Today, 2:04 PM

Bonds are slightly weaker to start the final trading day of the week, but that has nothing to do with this morning's PCE data. Despite being the Fed's favorite inflation index and despite c...

Today, 1:43 PM

Down an Eighth From Highs - Today, 1:43 PM

Although the initial reaction to data was modestly positive, bonds reversed course in the past few minutes and are now at the weakest levels of the day. Catalysts are scarce and open to deb...

Today, 12:38 PM

PCE Inflation Slightly Higher, But No Major Reaction - Today, 12:38 PM

Core PCE M/M 0.179 vs 0.1 f'cast Core PCE Y/Y 2.7 vs 2.6 f'cast, 2.6 prev Inflation adjusted spending -0.1 vs 0.1 f'cast, 0.2 prev Despite the slightl...

Thu, 7:32 PM

The Trend is Friendly For Now - Thu, 7:32 PM

MBS Recap The Trend is Friendly For Now MBS Recap Matthew Graham | 3:31 PM ...

Thu, 2:25 PM

Tons of Data, But Not a Ton of Movement - Thu, 2:25 PM

Visually, the number of line items in this morning's economic calendar may seem daunting. In fact, several of the reports sound like they should matter to the seasoned bond watcher (Durable Goods...

Thu, 12:38 PM

Generally Stronger Data, But Not Much of a Reaction - Thu, 12:38 PM

Jobless Claims 236k vs 245k f'cast, 246k prev Continued Claims 1974k vs 1950k f'cast, 1937k prev GDP -0.5 vs -0.2 f'cast Durable goods 16.4 vs...

Wed, 8:20 PM

Mid Day Reversal Leaves Bonds Slightly Stronger - Wed, 8:20 PM

MBS Recap Mid Day Reversal Leaves Bonds Slightly Stronger MBS Recap Matthew Graham...

Wed, 3:23 PM

Lighter Calendar and Light Selling - Wed, 3:23 PM

Bonds are taking a breath this morning after hitting the best levels in more than a month yesterday. The event calendar is much lighter than it seems at first glance. While there's always s...

Tue, 7:34 PM

Solid Response to Data and Dovishness - Tue, 7:34 PM

MBS Recap Solid Response to Data and Dovishness MBS Recap Matthew Graham | 3:33 PM...

Tue, 3:19 PM

Rally Continues as Powell Shows a Path to Rate Cuts - Tue, 3:19 PM

Powell's prepared remarks and Q&A at today's congressional testimony are showing the market a clearer path to the possibility of rate cuts in the near future. While Powell certainly sto...

Mon, 8:18 PM

Best Closing Levels in More Than a Month - Mon, 8:18 PM

MBS Recap Best Closing Levels in More Than a Month MBS Recap Matthew Graham | 4:17...

Mon, 7:43 PM

MBS Technically Down an Eighth From Highs - Mon, 7:43 PM

This is definitely one of those "heads-up" type of alerts that you should read before you simply lock. If you have not yet seen a positive reprice from the lender in question, there's virtuall...

Mon, 3:23 PM

Bonds Don't Always React to "War" Like You'd Expect - Mon, 3:23 PM

A vast majority of long-time bond watchers share the same general understanding of how war impacts rates. Specifically, the increased global economic uncertainty drives safe-haven demand for US T...

Fri, June 20, 9:00 PM

Underwhelming (But Friendly) Conclusion - Fri, June 20, 9:00 PM

MBS Recap Underwhelming (But Friendly) Conclusion MBS Recap Matthew Graham | 4:59 ...

Fri, June 20, 3:00 PM

Unofficial 4 Day Weekend - Fri, June 20, 3:00 PM

Much like the Friday after Thanksgiving, we have to wonder what the point is of a trading session without any neighbors (there's actually some guiding principle in setting holiday closures that t...

Wed, June 18, 8:57 PM

Fed Threads Needle of Apathy - Wed, June 18, 8:57 PM

MBS Recap Fed Threads Needle of Apathy MBS Recap Matthew Graham | 4:56 PM ...

Wed, June 18, 7:01 PM

A Bit Weaker Now (And Possible Reprice Risk) - Wed, June 18, 7:01 PM

MBS have shed another 3 ticks (.09) since the last alert. We're still up 1 tick on the day, but down 7 ticks (.22) from the highs. With that, jumpier lenders could more legitimately c...

Wed, June 18, 6:53 PM

Weakest Post-Fed Levels - Wed, June 18, 6:53 PM

MBS are still up 2 ticks on the day, but down exactly an eighth of a point from pre-Fed highs (but only half of that weakness has happened since the Fed announcement). 10yr yields are up...

Wed, June 18, 6:04 PM

Mixed Reaction so Far to Mixed Dot Plot - Wed, June 18, 6:04 PM

No rate cut No major changes to statement Notable changes to dots as seen in chart below Bottom line, the dot plot shows about half of the Fed moving toward the 0-1 cut camp and the o...

Wed, June 18, 6:00 PM

Here's What Changed in The New Fed Announcement - Wed, June 18, 6:00 PM

Although swings in net exports have affected the data, recent indicators suggest that economic activity has continued to expand at a solid pace. The unemployment rate has stabilized at a low lev...

Wed, June 18, 2:47 PM

Once Again: Today is Not About a Fed Rate Cut - Wed, June 18, 2:47 PM

Fed day is here and there's a 0% chance of a rate cut. That's been the case for just over a month due a combination of April's jobs report and the stock market recovery in May (or the under...

Tue, June 17, 8:31 PM

Dot Plot in Focus With Fed's "No Cut" Announcement - Tue, June 17, 8:31 PM

MBS Recap Dot Plot in Focus With Fed's "No Cut" Announcement MBS Recap Matthew Gra...

Tue, June 17, 2:53 PM

Econ Data Not Weak Enough to Help - Tue, June 17, 2:53 PM

Bonds were decently stronger in the overnight session, but not for any new, specific reasons. Trading levels have been cutting an increasingly narrow, sideways range. Until that chang...

Tue, June 17, 12:42 PM

CORRECTION: Import Prices Flat (Not Lower) - Tue, June 17, 12:42 PM

The previous update included export price figures instead of import price figures. Here's the correct breakdown: Import Prices 0.0 vs -0.2 f'cast, -0.1 prev Export Price...

Tue, June 17, 12:34 PM

Retail Sales Mixed; Import Prices Lower - Tue, June 17, 12:34 PM

Retail Sales -0.3 vs 0.1 f'cast, 0.0 prev Core Retail Sales 0.4 vs 0.3 f'cast, -0.1 prev Export Prices -0.9 vs -0.7 f'cast, 0.1 prev Import Prices 0...

Mon, June 16, 8:15 PM

Token Weakness Without a Cause - Mon, June 16, 8:15 PM

MBS Recap Token Weakness Without a Cause MBS Recap Matthew Graham | 4:14 PM ...

Mon, June 16, 6:01 PM

Down More Than an Eighth From Highs - Mon, June 16, 6:01 PM

MBS had a decent rally into 10:30am but have been losing ground steadily since noon. Chatter surrounds the anticipation over the Senate unveiling its version of the spending bill. 10y...

Mon, June 16, 2:25 PM

Slow Start Leaves Focus on The Next 2 Days - Mon, June 16, 2:25 PM

After rallying fairly well last Wednesday and Thursday, bonds pulled back on Friday, but not enough to erase more than half of the week's gains. The new week is starting out in uneventful fashion...

Fri, June 13, 7:32 PM

Not Reading Too Much Into Friday's Weakness - Fri, June 13, 7:32 PM

MBS Recap Not Reading Too Much Into Friday's Weakness MBS Recap Matthew Graham | 3...

Fri, June 13, 5:37 PM

Weakest Levels; Ongoing Reprice Risk - Fri, June 13, 5:37 PM

Bonds have been selling fairly steadily throughout the session in an intentional move to the sidelines ahead of higher-than-normal potential volatility over the weekend. This isn't just abo...

Fri, June 13, 2:32 PM

Additional Weakness After Sentiment Data - Fri, June 13, 2:32 PM

Consumer Sentiment 60.5 vs 53.5 f'cast, 52.2 prev 1yr inflation expectations 5.1 vs 6.6 prev Consumer sentiment has been a sub-par market mover at best, recently, b...

Fri, June 13, 1:53 PM

Opening Weaker Despite Israel/Iran Headlines - Fri, June 13, 1:53 PM

By 8pm last night, news of Israel's attack on Iran erased an entire week of stock market gains and pushed bond yields to the lowest levels in more than a month. Given the alarming nature of some ...

Thu, June 12, 8:13 PM

Thursday's Data Offered No Objection to Overnight Rally - Thu, June 12, 8:13 PM

MBS Recap Thursday's Data Offered No Objection to Overnight Rally MBS Recap Matthe...

Thu, June 12, 2:02 PM

Higher Bar For Additional Gains Despite Lower PPI - Thu, June 12, 2:02 PM

This morning's PPI did its best impression of yesterday's CPI with the core monthly number coming in at 0.1 vs 0.3 forecast. In yesterday's case, this was good enough for a reasonably big rally.&...

Thu, June 12, 12:36 PM

PPI Comes in Lower. Bonds Rallying Further - Thu, June 12, 12:36 PM

Core MM PPI 0.1 vs 0.3 f'cast, -0.2 prev Core YY PPI 3.0 vs 3.1 f'cast, 3.2 prev Monthly Headline PPI 0.1 vs 0.2 f'cast, -0.2 prev Jobless Claims 24...

Wed, June 11, 8:19 PM

Nice Rally on Data and Auction Results - Wed, June 11, 8:19 PM

MBS Recap Nice Rally on Data and Auction Results MBS Recap Matthew Graham | 4:16 P...

Wed, June 11, 1:53 PM

CPI Comes in Low Enough to Help - Wed, June 11, 1:53 PM

Heading into today's CPI data, our stance was that we'd need to see the monthly core number come in at 0.1 vs 0.3 in order to see much of a friendly response, and that is exactly what's playing o...

Wed, June 11, 12:38 PM

Inflation Tanks Enough For Bonds to Respond - Wed, June 11, 12:38 PM

Core CPI m/m 0.130 vs 0.3 f'cast, 0.2 prev Core CPI y/y 2.8 vs 2.9 f'cast, 2.8 prev Bonds were modestly weaker in the overnight session but have been willing ...

Tue, June 10, 7:49 PM

No Drama Today. How About Tomorrow? - Tue, June 10, 7:49 PM

MBS Recap No Drama Today. How About Tomorrow? MBS Recap Matthew Graham | 3:49 PM ...

Tue, June 10, 2:46 PM

Bumpy Start; No Data; Waiting on Auction and Trade Headlines - Tue, June 10, 2:46 PM

Although bonds are experiencing a small amount of volatility this morning, it isn't consequential in the bigger picture. Quick-but-modest weakness at 10:15am ET has essentially taken MBS ba...

Tue, June 10, 2:41 PM

MBS Down an Eighth From AM Highs - Tue, June 10, 2:41 PM

Many lenders are not yet out with their first rate sheet of the day. Others tend to have a slightly higher bar for reprice risk when bonds sell off at this time of day. All that to say that repri...

Mon, June 9, 7:56 PM

Gentle Rally Gently Reverses After Trade Headlines - Mon, June 9, 7:56 PM

MBS Recap Gentle Rally Gently Reverses After Trade Headlines MBS Recap Matthew Gra...

Mon, June 9, 2:12 PM

Shifting Gears After Friday's Volatility - Mon, June 9, 2:12 PM

Overnight and early-session trading confirm the bond market is shifting gears and re-entering a sort of cruise control in the prevailing range. Had last Friday's jobs report been as weak as some ...

Fri, June 6, 9:02 PM

Perfectly Logical Reaction to On-Target Data - Fri, June 6, 9:02 PM

MBS Recap Perfectly Logical Reaction to On-Target Data MBS Recap Matthew Graham | ...

Fri, June 6, 4:14 PM

Steady Losses; New Lows - Fri, June 6, 4:14 PM

Nothing new or exciting has happened since the jobs report this morning, but bonds have been selling to progressively weaker levels, even if the pace is super slow. With each tick lower in ...

Fri, June 6, 3:30 PM

Jobs Report Not Bad Enough to Justify The Lead-Off - Fri, June 6, 3:30 PM

The bond market was likely taking a bit of a lead-off ahead of today's jobs report, inspired by a string of weaker economic data over the past week. Wednesday's ADP and ISM data had an espe...

Fri, June 6, 12:34 PM

NFP Right in Line With Forecast; Some Selling - Fri, June 6, 12:34 PM

Nonfarm Payrolls 139k vs 130k f'cast, 147k prev Unemployment Rate 4.2 vs 4.2 f'cast/prev As we discussed yesterday, Wednesday's data led the market to price in a sl...

Thu, June 5, 8:05 PM