Bonds have been selling off in fits and starts after an initial recovery at the NYSE open. That lasted all of 30 minutes and the selling has been linear since then.
MBS are d...
In the run up to the election, we offered constant reminders that a 10bp move in Treasuries wasn't really a big deal, and that such volatility could be expected well into November. That's t...
MBS aren't much lower in price than they were at the time of the last alert, but a few additional lenders may be convinced to consider negative reprices this time around. 5.5 coupons are no...
MBS are still near unchanged levels on the day, but that's down more than an eighth of a point from the AM highs. Later-pricing lenders may have put out rate sheets near those highs. ...
"Buy the rumor, sell the news" is an age-old aphorism in financial markets for a reason. It accurately speaks to the real and repeatable phenomenon whereby traders trade all the information...
Bonds have bounced back to their strongest levels of the day shortly after the last alert. This began after he said they wouldn't rule out or in the previously anticipated pace of 2025 rate...
If there was a specific catalyst, it was Powell saying they've been watching the run up in rates and it's nowhere near where it was a year ago. This is true, but bonds don't love hearing it...
Fed says labor market conditions have generally eased as opposed to saying "job gains have slowed" previously
Fed drops the phrase about gaining greater confidence that inflation is moving tow...
What follows is a comparison between today's newly released Fed announcement and the previous announcement. Additions are blue/underlined. Subtractions are red/struck-through. Unchang...
This morning's only relevant economic data was weekly jobless claims. The headline was right in line with forecasts and the non-adjusted number keeps 2024 right in line with recent years......
Jobless Claims
221k vs 221k f'cast, 218k prev
Continued Claims
1892k vs 1880k f'cast, 1853k prev
Bonds were remarkably calm overnight, given the volatility that's ...
Heading into the election, we knew the bond market was losing ground in concert with improving odds of a Trump victory and red sweep. After being surprised in 2016, markets were determined ...
Last week could easily have left us with the impression that the bond market's love affair with economic data was put on hold until after the election. One could even claim that Friday's jo...
ISM Services
56.0 vs 53.8 f'cast, 54.9 prev
employment 54.0 vs 48.0
Prices 58.1 vs 58.0
There are no two ways about it: a 56.0 reading in ISM Services is a strong result.&n...
Bonds continue correcting after the big overnight rally. MBS were already just over an eighth of a point off the AM highs at the time of the last alert. They've since lost nearly anot...
After being up more than 3/8ths of a point on the day, MBS are now up only a quarter point and down 5 ticks (.16) from the AM highs. Because those highs occurred around the same time m...
Up until last Friday, 10yr Treasury yields had consistently closed at 4.27-4.28 last week. Now this morning, we're at 4.27-4.28 again. That's the shortest way to explain that we're no...
MBS are now down 5 ticks (.16) on the day and an entire half point from the AM highs. Many lenders are seeing at least a quarter point of weakness from morning rate sheet print times. ...
After this morning's initial rally, bonds have been losing ground steadily. They're now at the weakest levels of the day with MBS roughly unchanged and down more than a quarter point from t...
When the median forecast for today's jobs report began circulating, many a market watcher felt that the 113k forecast was too low compared to the 254k previous reading, even after considering the...
Nonfarm Payrolls
12k vs 113k f'cast, 223k prev
Unemployment Rate
4.1 vs 4.1 f'cast, 4.1 prev
Clearly, the forecast consensus--which seemed way too low to everyone, ...
If it weren't for the surge of volume in Treasuries lining up perfectly with economic report release times, one might wonder if traders even care that much about economic data right now. Th...
Granted, this morning's highs were only seen for a few brief moments. They also didn't coincide with any rate sheet print times. Nonetheless, current prices are now exactly a quarter ...
MBS prices lost ground fairly quickly after the 3pm CME close and 5.5 coupons are now down a quarter point on the day and just over 3/8ths from the AM highs. Negative reprices remain possib...
It's been an interesting morning for the bond market so far. ADP employment came in much stronger than expected. 15 minutes later, Q3 GDP was slightly weaker (2.8 vs 3.0) but with hig...
It's easy to lose sight of the current sell-off in this morning's shuffle. There's been a lot of back and forth. Unfortunately, the highs of the day coincide with lender rate sheet pr...
GDP Q3
2.8 vs 3.0 f'cast, 3.0 prev
Core Q3 PCE price index
2.2 vs 2.1 f'cast, 2.8 prev
All things considered, bonds are holding up fairly well. The 2.2 vs 2.1...
ADP Employment
233k vs 115k f'cast, 143k prev
The prevailing sentiment heading into this week's payroll counts (ADP and NFP) was that the hurricane would make for artificially lo...
7yr Treasury Auction
4.215 vs 4.235 f'cast
bid to cover 2.74x vs 2.54x avg
primer on auction jargon
Bonds were near their weakest levels of the day with 10yr yields pushi...
As we've noted on many occasions in the past few years, JOLTS (the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey) used to be a non-event in terms of economic data moving markets. That changed in a...
MBS have lost more than an eighth of a point since the last alert. They're now down a quarter point on the day and almost 3/8ths from the AM highs. This makes negative reprices increas...
Bonds pushed into modestly positive territory to start the day, but have been giving up gains in the 10am hour. 5.5 UMBS are only down 2 ticks (.06) on the day, but that's 5 ticks (.16) bel...
After 2 frustrating weeks spent moving toward higher yields without any major justification from the economic data, things are about to change. From here on out, the move toward higher yiel...
MBS are now down 5 ticks (.16) on the day and 10 ticks (.31) from AM highs. Lenders who have not yet repriced for the worse are increasingly likely to be considering it.
10yr yields are ...
Still no drama, just slow losses throughout the day. MBS are now down 3 ticks (0.09) in total and a quarter point from AM highs. Most lenders could justify a negative reprice if you h...
Nothing dramatic is happening by any means, but MBS have trickled down to new lows for the day. 5.5 coupons are still up 1 tick (.03) but down 5 ticks (.16) from the highs. Lenders wh...
Granted, we were by no means looking for big things from this morning's Durable Goods data, but somehow it still managed to underwhelm. That's not saying much for Durable Goods considering ...
