Weekly Newsletter Archive

Fri, November 1, 8:03 PM

Rates Refuse to Drop Ahead of Election. How About After? - Fri, November 1, 8:03 PM

This newsletter strictly avoids politics except in cases where the political realm legitimately intersects with relevant events for housing and rates. Now is clearly one of those times. The discu...

Fri, October 25, 6:33 PM

November Volatility Shows Up Early And Next Week Could Be Even Crazier - Fri, October 25, 6:33 PM

Last week's newsletter warned that it was time to start thinking about incredibly high volatility potential due to events in the first few days of November. But as far as interest rates are conce...

Fri, October 18, 10:16 PM

Time to Start Thinking About Incredibly High Volatility Potential - Fri, October 18, 10:16 PM

This newsletter series spent 3 straight weeks trying to remind readers that mortgage rates could go higher after the Fed rate cut, and then several more weeks warning about the high stakes j...

Fri, October 11, 7:25 PM

Lots of Confusion About Recent Rate Movement. Let's Clear it up - Fri, October 11, 7:25 PM

It's been frustrating and potentially confusing to see mortgage rates move consistently higher after the Fed's September 18th rate cut, but the Fed has nothing to do with the big rate spike of th...

Fri, October 4, 10:31 PM

Huge Rate Bounce After Stunningly Strong Jobs Report - Fri, October 4, 10:31 PM

There was a lot riding on Friday's big jobs report with a weak result likely to reinvigorate a move to long-term lows and a strong result likely to push rates higher. It ended up being VERY stron...

Fri, September 27, 8:59 PM

Refi Booms, Loan Limits, and Mortgage Rate Misdirection - Fri, September 27, 8:59 PM

'Tis the season for things to be something other than what they appear to be, apparently. Lenders are talking about new loan limits, but they haven't officially changed. News stories are saying r...

Fri, September 20, 7:41 PM

Why The Fed Rate Cut Didn't Help Mortgage Rates This Week - Fri, September 20, 7:41 PM

This week's newsletter will be intentionally short in hopes of it being easier to share, read, and digest. It will offer several strategies for understanding the paradoxical disconnect between th...

Fri, September 13, 7:53 PM

Why Fed Day Matters Even Though Mortgage Rates Are Already Lower - Fri, September 13, 7:53 PM

It's a foregone conclusion that the Fed will be cutting rates on Wednesday, September 18th. As exciting as they might sound, mortgage rates have already reaped the rewards. If...

Fri, September 6, 8:15 PM

Why You Might Regret Waiting For Better Rates After The Fed Cuts - Fri, September 6, 8:15 PM

This week's labor market data and Fed speeches solidified the case for the Fed to cut rates by at least 0.25% when it meets in 2 weeks. With more and more buzz surrounding that rate cut, it...

Fri, August 30, 7:35 PM

Here's Exactly What a Fed Rate Cut Will Do For Mortgage Rates - Fri, August 30, 7:35 PM

It's still just over 3 weeks away, but questions are already ramping up regarding the impact of the Fed's rate cut on mortgage rates. Here is exactly what the rate cut itself will do: NOTHI...

Fri, August 23, 9:15 PM

Powell Puts a Lid on The Rate Debate, But Where's The Bottom? - Fri, August 23, 9:15 PM

Every year, the Federal Reserve (aka "the Fed") gathers in Jackson Hole, WY with a bevy of other central bankers and academics to discuss and comment on monetary policy in a setting that's slight...

Fri, August 16, 9:15 PM

Refi Demand Exploded (Relatively), But Rates Are Settling (For Now) - Fri, August 16, 9:15 PM

There's been widespread speculation as to the effect that falling rates will have on refinance demand in a world where 2/3rds of mortgages have rates under 4%. This week's data suggests it's wort...

Fri, August 9, 10:22 PM

Rates End Week Higher After Massive Volatility - Fri, August 9, 10:22 PM

This week alone, mortgage rates hit their lowest levels in well over a year and moved higher at their 3rd fastest pace in nearly 2 years. Monday morning began with global financial marke...

Fri, August 2, 9:42 PM

Rates Plummet as The Market Buys Into The Big Shift - Fri, August 2, 9:42 PM

The events of this past week serve as an exclamation point in one of the many sentences that tells the story of the big shift away from the generationally high rates seen at the end of 2023. ...

Fri, July 26, 9:36 PM

Inflation Data Continues Paving The Way For (Eventual) Rate Cuts - Fri, July 26, 9:36 PM

This week's most important economic data was the PCE price index which is the gold standard of big picture inflation measurement. For those hoping to see rates drop, it was important for PCE to c...

Fri, July 19, 9:02 PM

Very Calm Week For Rates, Despite Hitting New 6 Month Low - Fri, July 19, 9:02 PM

While much of this week's news cycle was focused on politics, it was business as usual for the bond market and interest rates. At this time of year, that business often involves a lack of major m...

Fri, July 12, 8:22 PM

Sharply Lower Inflation Brings Fed Rate Cuts Into Focus - Fri, July 12, 8:22 PM

There was a lot riding on this week's economic data and it delivered in a big way. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) has had the biggest influence on interest rates of any of the scheduled mon...

Fri, July 5, 9:36 PM

Economic Data Building a Case For Rate Cuts - Fri, July 5, 9:36 PM

It may have been a shorter week than normal due to the holiday, but it was no less important with several economic reports adding to the case for rate cuts. The first week of any given month t...

Fri, June 28, 9:54 PM

Slow Start for Rates Gives Way to Volatility With More to Come Next Week - Fri, June 28, 9:54 PM

The week began with a distinct absence of interest rate volatility, but things changed in a big way by Friday--at least compared to the previous week which was exceptionally quiet. ...

Fri, June 21, 8:36 PM

June Shaping Up Nicely, But Bigger Tests Are Yet to Come - Fri, June 21, 8:36 PM

After a rocky start to the year, things began to improve for rates and the inflation outlook in May. June took the improvement to the next level, but this week didn't affect the bigger picture. ...

Fri, June 14, 7:14 PM

Big Inflation Victory Gets Rates Back to Lowest Levels Since March - Fri, June 14, 7:14 PM

This week was hotly anticipated by investors due to the confluence of economic data and events. Depending on the outcome, interest rates stood to gain or lose quite a bit of ground. Thankfu...

Fri, June 7, 7:31 PM

Wild Week in Response to Economic Data And There's More On The Way - Fri, June 7, 7:31 PM

The bond market (and therefore interest rates) came into the current week with a bit of a bias. Even after accounting for other variables, there was a predisposition to focus on d...

Fri, May 31, 7:58 PM

Plenty of Rate Volatility Despite Holiday-Shortened Week - Fri, May 31, 7:58 PM

This week got off to a late start as markets were closed on Monday for Memorial Day. Upon returning to the office, traders began pushing rates higher almost immediately. It's often said that t...

Fri, May 24, 6:42 PM

The Fed is No Longer Eager to Cut Rates And The Market Knows It - Fri, May 24, 6:42 PM

It was largely a dull week for financial markets in terms of scheduled data and volatility, but numerous Fed speeches helped reiterate what the market thought it already knew. Specifically,...

Fri, May 17, 9:32 PM

Hotly Anticipated Inflation Data Keeps Hope Alive - Fri, May 17, 9:32 PM

As long as inflation is the top concern for financial markets, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) is the most important economic report on any given month and it came out this week. Stocks and b...

Fri, May 10, 7:44 PM

The Upcoming Week Will Be Significantly More Volatile - Fri, May 10, 7:44 PM

In general, you should be skeptical any time someone says a future week will be more volatile. There's really no way to know such things in advance, but this time is an exception. While we can...

Fri, May 3, 8:40 PM

Despite Bigger Bumps, Fed Still Sees Path to Lower Rates - Fri, May 3, 8:40 PM

It was an action-packed week for the housing and mortgage market. Wednesday's Fed announcement was the highlight, but we also got several economic reports that caused rate volatility. Thankfully,...

Fri, April 26, 8:59 PM

Expect Tougher Talk From The Fed After This Week's Inflation Data - Fri, April 26, 8:59 PM

As 2024 has progressed, economic data--especially inflation data--have made it increasingly clear that rates will not be coming down nearly as soon as the Fed (and the market) expected. Rates&...

Fri, April 19, 8:09 PM

The Case of The Disappearing Rate Cuts - Fri, April 19, 8:09 PM

The Fed expected to be able to cut rates 3 times in 2024 as recently as March. Financial markets agreed. But the data that's come out since then has everyone singing a different tune. This ...

Fri, April 12, 9:44 PM

Rates Rocked by Inflation Data - Fri, April 12, 9:44 PM

If there was only one thing to know about the mortgage market this week, it would be that Wednesday's inflation data prompted one of biggest single day increases in mortgage rates in decades. If ...

Fri, April 5, 9:32 PM

Reasonably Resilient Rates Waiting to See Wednesday's Inflation Data - Fri, April 5, 9:32 PM

Data dependent... That's a phrase that is all too prevalent in financial markets and among members of the Federal Reserve. It refers to the fact that economic data will guide the future pat...

Thu, March 28, 7:00 PM

Tame Week For Rates and Housing Data, But Change is Coming - Thu, March 28, 7:00 PM

With markets only open 3.5 days and without any top tier economic reports to influence rates, this week could have arguably been viewed as a 9 day weekend for traders. In fact, despite some...

Fri, March 22, 9:14 PM

Fed Surprisingly Calm on Inflation Risk; Home Sales Improve - Fri, March 22, 9:14 PM

This week's main event was Wednesday's Fed announcement, or more specifically, the dot plot. What's a dot plot? 4 times a year, the Fed releases its best guess of where the Fed Funds Rate w...

Fri, March 15, 8:48 PM

On The Road To Rate Cuts, Markets Asking "Are We There Yet?" (Spoiler Alert: No) - Fri, March 15, 8:48 PM

Back in late 2023, we got in the car with the Federal Reserve with the promise of a trip to our favorite place: the land of lower interest rates. In 2024, we keep asking "are we there yet?" The m...

Fri, March 8, 9:07 PM

Lowest Rates in Over a Month. Upcoming Inflation Data Casts a Critical Vote - Fri, March 8, 9:07 PM

It was a hotly anticipated week for interest rates due to the arrival of the first batch of big ticket economic data since the Inflation report that came out on February 13th. This week's data wa...

Sat, March 2, 12:15 AM

Rates Defend The Ceiling. High Stakes Week(s) Ahead - Sat, March 2, 12:15 AM

This week was more active and interesting than the previous example with a few important economic reports helping rates avoid breaking their recent ceiling. Using 10yr Treasury yields as a ben...

Fri, February 23, 8:15 PM

Short, Quiet Week, But With Some Hopeful Hints For Housing and Rates - Fri, February 23, 8:15 PM

Between Monday's holiday market closure and the general absence of highly relevant economic reports, it was a fairly quiet week for interest rates and the housing market, but not without some pot...

Fri, February 16, 11:45 PM

Rates Bounce Higher as Inflation Data Throws a Wrench in The Outlook - Fri, February 16, 11:45 PM

Inflation is the biggest problem for interest rates these days and this week brought two reports that pushed rates higher. Both are released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics and both pointed tow...

Fri, February 9, 11:44 PM

Conflicting News on Rates, But Everyone Agrees on The Next Main Event - Fri, February 9, 11:44 PM

Last Thursday, Mortgage News Daily (MND) published an article titled: "Rates Right in Line With Long-Term Lows, But That Could Change on Friday." Indeed, rates ended up jumping in a big way--the ...

Fri, February 2, 11:20 PM

Worst Day For Rates in More Than a Year After Jobs Report, But It's Not as Bad as it Sounds - Fri, February 2, 11:20 PM

Interest rates have a long and reliable history of reacting to the jobs report more than any other monthly economic data and the most recent example sent mortgage rates screaming higher at the fa...

Fri, January 26, 5:53 PM

What's At Stake With The Upcoming Fed Meeting? - Fri, January 26, 5:53 PM

Over the past 2 months, speculation ramped up quickly regarding the pace and magnitude of Fed rate cuts in 2024. Next week brings the first Fed meeting that's in the realm of that speculation. ...

Fri, January 19, 9:51 PM

Highest Mortgage Rates in More Than a Month, But There Are Silver Linings - Fri, January 19, 9:51 PM

So far, 2024 has been distinctly different from the end of 2023. November and December saw rates move lower at one of the fastest paces in decades. In contrast, January has delivered a fairly con...

Fri, January 12, 9:31 PM

Inflation Data Keeps Low Rate Hopes Alive - Fri, January 12, 9:31 PM

The much-anticipated Consumer Price Index (CPI) was released this week. For those seeking evidence that inflation will soon be back at the Fed's target level, it wasn't the triumph it might have ...

Fri, January 5, 9:43 PM

Let's Talk About The Spread Between Mortgage Rates And The 10yr Treasury - Fri, January 5, 9:43 PM

Seemingly overnight, there is widespread media attention on the spread between mortgage rates and the 10yr Treasury yield. There shouldn't be. Why are we talking about the 10yr Treasury yield...

Fri, December 29, 8:09 PM

Calm Week to End Not-So-Calm Year - Fri, December 29, 8:09 PM

While this week was uneventful and while 2022 was more volatile in terms of movement in the housing/mortgage market, we can still reflect on 2023 as a year of extremes. Incidentally, that thes...

Fri, December 22, 8:12 PM

Have Rates Improved Too Quickly And Is The Fed Being Rational? - Fri, December 22, 8:12 PM

The astonishing pace of the recent drop in interest rates has raised some questions regarding sustainability and justification, but we can clear them up with a single chart. The Federal Reserv...

Fri, December 15, 8:12 PM

The Dots Put an Exclamation Point on Record-Breaking Drop in Rates - Fri, December 15, 8:12 PM

We came into this week expecting the Fed's Dot Plot to set the tone, or at least to create a good amount of movement in rates, and that's exactly what happened. The dot plot refers to a chart ...

Fri, December 8, 9:33 PM

What's at Stake With Next Week's Fed Announcement and Inflation Data? - Fri, December 8, 9:33 PM

It was mostly a great week for mortgage rates with the average lender near the best levels in months through Thursday. Friday's jobs report pushed rates back up a bit, but not excessively. Next w...

Fri, December 1, 9:29 PM

What New Loan Limits Mean; Should We Worry About "Worst Ever" Pending Home Sales? - Fri, December 1, 9:29 PM

It's been a good week for extremes in the housing market with rates at 3 month lows, pending home sales at "record" lows, and conforming loan limits up to record highs. Here's why at least two of...

Wed, November 22, 8:13 PM

Housing Market Thankful For Lower Rates But The True Test is in Early December - Wed, November 22, 8:13 PM

NOTE: this is an early version of the weekly newsletter that normally comes out on Friday. There will be no newsletter on Friday due to the Thanksgiving holiday. Mortgage rates have fal...