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Stronger Start For Bonds After Cooler Jobs Report
Stronger Start For Bonds After Cooler Jobs Report
On most months in modern economic memory, a gain of 175k payrolls would be welcome news for the labor market. Depending on the context, it still is. But in today's case, it's much lower than the market expected and not a high enough number to justify the 4.6+ 10yr yields seen yesterday. Bonds rallied instantly when the news printed, but one rate-friendly jobs report is only a fine tuning adjustment to a rate environment dominated by inflation concerns.
Counterintuitive Rally
| Time | Event | Period | Actual | Forecast | Prior |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Friday, May 03 | |||||
| 8:30AM | Apr Average workweek hrs (hr) | Apr | 34.3 | 34.4 | 34.4 |
| 8:30AM | Apr Average earnings mm (%) | Apr | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.3% |
| 8:30AM | Apr Private Payrolls (k) | Apr | 167K | 190K | 232K |
| 8:30AM | Apr Non Farm Payrolls | Apr | 175K | 243K | 303K |
| 8:30AM | Average Hourly Earnings YoY | 3.9% | 4% | 4.1% | |
| 8:30AM | Apr Participation Rate | Apr | 62.7% | 62.7% | 62.7% |
| 8:30AM | Apr Government Payrolls | Apr | 8K | 71K | |
| 8:30AM | U-6 Unemployment Rate | 7.4% | 7.3% | ||
| 8:30AM | Apr Manufacturing payrolls (k) | Apr | 8K | 5K | 0K |
| 8:30AM | Apr Unemployment rate mm (%) | Apr | 3.9% | 3.8% | 3.8% |
| 9:45AM | Apr S&P Global Services PMI | Apr | 51.3 | 50.9 | 51.7 |
| 9:45AM | Apr S&P Global Composite PMI | Apr | 51.3 | 50.9 | 52.1 |
| 10:00AM | Apr ISM Biz Activity | Apr | 50.9 | 57.4 | |
| 10:00AM | Apr ISM Services Employment | Apr | 45.9 | 49.0 | 48.5 |
| 10:00AM | Apr ISM Services New Orders | Apr | 52.2 | 54.5 | 54.4 |
| 10:00AM | Apr ISM Services Prices | Apr | 59.2 | 55.0 | 53.4 |
| 10:00AM | Apr ISM N-Mfg PMI | Apr | 49.4 | 52.0 | 51.4 |
| 11:00AM | Apr Total Vehicle Sales (ml) | Apr | 15.74M | 15.5M | |
| 1:00PM | May/03 Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count | May/03 | 499 | 506 | |
| 1:00PM | May/03 Baker Hughes Total Rig Count | May/03 | 605 | 613 | |
| 7:45PM | Fed Williams Speech | ||||
| 7:45PM | Fed Goolsbee Speech | ||||
| Monday, May 06 | |||||
| 11:30AM | 52-Week Bill Auction (bl) | 70 | |||
| 11:30AM | 3-Month Bill Auction | 5.250% | 5.250% | ||
| 11:30AM | 6-Month Bill Auction | 5.155% | 5.165% | ||
| 11:30AM | 26-Week Bill Auction (bl) | 70 | |||
| 12:50PM | Fed Barkin Speech | ||||
| 1:00PM | Fed Williams Speech | ||||
| 2:00PM | Loan Officer Survey | ||||
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