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Bonds Hold On to NFP-Driven Gains Despite Some Push-Back
Bonds Hold On to NFP-Driven Gains Despite Some Push-Back
Whether you view it as a perfectly logical reaction to NFP coming in at 175k vs 243k or a bit too much of a rally relative to the motivation, no one could argue that bond yields were destined to drop after seeing this morning's jobs report. But employment data is only worth so much these days. The main event continues to be inflation and we were reminded of that with the 10am ISM Services data. The ISM headline was actually rate friendly, but the inflation component was the bigger mover, and it was not friendly. Bonds lost almost all of their post-NFP gains in response, but managed to level off in the PM hours. Combined with the 2 previous days of green, the net effect is the best closing levels since April 9th.
Perfectly Logical Rally in Response to NFP
| Time | Event | Period | Actual | Forecast | Prior |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Friday, May 03 | |||||
| 8:30AM | Apr Average workweek hrs (hr) | Apr | 34.3 | 34.4 | 34.4 |
| 8:30AM | Apr Average earnings mm (%) | Apr | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.3% |
| 8:30AM | Apr Private Payrolls (k) | Apr | 167K | 190K | 232K |
| 8:30AM | Apr Non Farm Payrolls | Apr | 175K | 243K | 303K |
| 8:30AM | Average Hourly Earnings YoY | 3.9% | 4% | 4.1% | |
| 8:30AM | Apr Participation Rate | Apr | 62.7% | 62.7% | 62.7% |
| 8:30AM | Apr Government Payrolls | Apr | 8K | 71K | |
| 8:30AM | U-6 Unemployment Rate | 7.4% | 7.3% | ||
| 8:30AM | Apr Manufacturing payrolls (k) | Apr | 8K | 5K | 0K |
| 8:30AM | Apr Unemployment rate mm (%) | Apr | 3.9% | 3.8% | 3.8% |
| 9:45AM | Apr S&P Global Services PMI | Apr | 51.3 | 50.9 | 51.7 |
| 9:45AM | Apr S&P Global Composite PMI | Apr | 51.3 | 50.9 | 52.1 |
| 10:00AM | Apr ISM Biz Activity | Apr | 50.9 | 57.4 | |
| 10:00AM | Apr ISM Services Employment | Apr | 45.9 | 49.0 | 48.5 |
| 10:00AM | Apr ISM Services New Orders | Apr | 52.2 | 54.5 | 54.4 |
| 10:00AM | Apr ISM Services Prices | Apr | 59.2 | 55.0 | 53.4 |
| 10:00AM | Apr ISM N-Mfg PMI | Apr | 49.4 | 52.0 | 51.4 |
| 11:00AM | Apr Total Vehicle Sales (ml) | Apr | 15.74M | 15.5M | |
| 1:00PM | May/03 Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count | May/03 | 499 | 506 | |
| 1:00PM | May/03 Baker Hughes Total Rig Count | May/03 | 605 | 613 | |
| 7:45PM | Fed Williams Speech | ||||
| 7:45PM | Fed Goolsbee Speech | ||||
| Monday, May 06 | |||||
| 11:30AM | 52-Week Bill Auction (bl) | 70 | |||
| 11:30AM | 3-Month Bill Auction | 5.250% | 5.250% | ||
| 11:30AM | 6-Month Bill Auction | 5.155% | 5.165% | ||
| 11:30AM | 26-Week Bill Auction (bl) | 70 | |||
| 12:50PM | Fed Barkin Speech | ||||
| 1:00PM | Fed Williams Speech | ||||
| 2:00PM | Loan Officer Survey | ||||
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