Bonds Hold On to NFP-Driven Gains Despite Some Push-Back
Bonds Hold On to NFP-Driven Gains Despite Some Push-Back
Whether you view it as a perfectly logical reaction to NFP coming in at 175k vs 243k or a bit too much of a rally relative to the motivation, no one could argue that bond yields were destined to drop after seeing this morning's jobs report. But employment data is only worth so much these days. The main event continues to be inflation and we were reminded of that with the 10am ISM Services data. The ISM headline was actually rate friendly, but the inflation component was the bigger mover, and it was not friendly. Bonds lost almost all of their post-NFP gains in response, but managed to level off in the PM hours. Combined with the 2 previous days of green, the net effect is the best closing levels since April 9th.
Perfectly Logical Rally in Response to NFP
| Time | Event | Period | Actual | Forecast | Prior |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Monday, May 06 | |||||
| 11:30AM | 52-Week Bill Auction (bl) | 70 | |||
| 11:30AM | 3-Month Bill Auction | 5.250% | 5.250% | ||
| 11:30AM | 6-Month Bill Auction | 5.155% | 5.165% | ||
| 11:30AM | 26-Week Bill Auction (bl) | 70 | |||
| 12:50PM | Fed Barkin Speech | ||||
| 1:00PM | Fed Williams Speech | ||||
| 2:00PM | Loan Officer Survey | ||||
| Tuesday, May 07 | |||||
| 8:55AM | May/04 Redbook yy (%) | May/04 | 6% | 5.5% | |
| 9:00AM | Apr Used Car Prices MoM | Apr | -2.3% | -0.4% | |
| 9:00AM | Apr Used Car Prices YoY | Apr | -14% | -14.7% | |
| 10:10AM | May IBD economic optimism | May | 41.8 | 44.1 | 43.2 |
| 10:30AM | NY Fed Treasury Purchases 0 to 1 yrs (%) | $80 million | |||
| 11:30AM | 26-Week Bill Auction (bl) | 75 | |||
| 11:30AM | Fed Kashkari Speech | ||||
| 11:30AM | 42-Day Bill Auction (%) | 5.280% | 5.285% | ||
| 1:00PM | 3-Year Note Auction | 4.605% | 4.548% | ||
| 1:00PM | 3-Yr Note Auction (bl) | 58 | |||
| 2:00PM | Apr LMI Logistics Managers Index Current | Apr | 52.9 | 58.3 | |
| 3:00PM | Mar Consumer credit (bl) | Mar | $6.27B | $15B | $14.12B |
| 4:30PM | May/03 API weekly crude stocks (ml) | May/03 | 0.509M | -1.43M | 4.906M |
