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Sideways And Slightly Stronger Thanks to Jobless Claims
Sideways And Slightly Stronger Thanks to Jobless Claims
It is a starkly data-free week for all intents and purposes, but some economic reports are with us as always on a weekly basis. Thursday's initial jobless claims data is the most notable weekly report even though it rarely causes a reaction in the bond market. Today is a clear exception owing to the much larger than normal deviation from the forecast consensus (231k vs 210k prev). Even though several analysts and trade desks have attempted to explain away the increase, bonds are unfazed. After starting the day slightly weaker, we're now slightly stronger (no impact on the bigger picture and nothing significant... just a nicer start).
Token Pull Back Keeps Things Boring
| Time | Event | Period | Actual | Forecast | Prior |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thursday, May 09 | |||||
| 8:30AM | May/04 Jobless claims 4-wk avg (k) | May/04 | 215K | 210K | |
| 8:30AM | May/04 Jobless Claims (k) | May/04 | 231K | 210K | 208K |
| 8:30AM | Apr/27 Continued Claims (ml) | Apr/27 | 1785K | 1790K | 1774K |
| 10:30AM | May/03 Nat gas-EIA, change bcf | May/03 | 79Bcf | 87Bcf | 59Bcf |
| 11:30AM | 4-Week Bill Auction | 5.270% | 5.275% | ||
| 11:30AM | 8-Week Bill Auction | 5.275% | 5.270% | ||
| 12:00PM | May/08 30-Year Mortgage Rate | May/08 | 7.09% | 7.22% | |
| 12:00PM | May/08 15-Year Mortgage Rate | May/08 | 6.38% | 6.47% | |
| 1:00PM | 30-Year Bond Auction | 4.635% | 4.671% | ||
| 1:00PM | 30-Yr Bond Auction (bl) | 25 | |||
| 2:00PM | Fed Daly Speech | ||||
| Friday, May 10 | |||||
| 12:00AM | Roll Date - UMBS 30YR | ||||
| 9:00AM | Fed Bowman Speech | ||||
| 10:00AM | May U Mich conditions | May | 68.8 | 79.0 | 79 |
| 10:00AM | May Consumer Sentiment (ip) | May | 67.4 | 76 | 77.2 |
| 10:00AM | May Sentiment: 5y Inflation (%) | May | 3.1% | 3% | |
| 10:00AM | May Michigan Consumer Expectations Final | May | 66.5 | 75 | 76 |
| 10:00AM | May Sentiment: 1y Inflation (%) | May | 3.5% | 3.2% | 3.2% |
| 10:00AM | Fed Kashkari Speech | ||||
| 12:00PM | WASDE Report (%) | ||||
| 12:45PM | Fed Goolsbee Speech | ||||
| 1:00PM | May/10 Baker Hughes Total Rig Count | May/10 | 603 | 605 | |
| 1:00PM | May/10 Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count | May/10 | 496 | 499 | |
| 1:30PM | Fed Barr Speech | ||||
| 2:00PM | Apr Federal budget, $ (bl) | Apr | $210B | $244.5B | $-236B |
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