Bonds Boosted by Data and Well-Received Auction

Bonds Boosted by Data and Well-Received Auction

Jobless Claims data doesn't normally move the market, but it did this morning, even if only by a bit.  It was enough to turn modest losses into modest gains ahead of the afternoon's 30yr bond auction.  Here too, hopes were not high for a big reaction.  After all, there was no real reaction to yesterday's 10yr auction.  But things were different this time as traders bid more aggressively for the longer duration.  With that, we had two modest-but-noticeable rallies that left trading levels right in line with this week's range after starting out at the highest yields of the week.

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Data and Auction Help Turn Losses Into Gains

MBS & Treasury Markets
UMBS 6.0 100.08 -0.20 10YR 4.505% +0.049% 5/10/2024 5:00PM EST
It is a starkly data-free week for all intents and purposes, but some economic reports are with us as always on a weekly basis.  Thursday's initial jobless claims data is the most notable weekly report even though it rarely causes a reaction in the bond market.  Today is a clear exception owing to the much larger than normal deviation from the forecast consensus (231k vs 210k prev).  Even though several analysts and trade desks have attempted to expla...   READ MORE
Today's Mortgage Rates
30YR Fixed 7.16% +0.01% 15YR Fixed 6.64% +0.01% 5/10/2024
The most prevalently quoted conventional 30yr fixed rates are at the lowest levels in a month as of today, but there are a few "yeah buts" that make that achievement look a bit less lofty.  The first is that the rates seen on any day this week would have qualified for the same distinction if they'd remained intact today.  Reason being: there was a big rate spike last month on April 10.  On a related note, today's rates weren't appreciably lower than those see...   READ MORE
Economic Calendar
Time Event Period Actual Forecast Prior
Friday, May 10
12:00AM Roll Date - UMBS 30YR
9:00AM Fed Bowman Speech
10:00AM May U Mich conditions May 68.8 79.0 79
10:00AM May Consumer Sentiment (ip) May 67.4 76 77.2
10:00AM May Sentiment: 5y Inflation (%) May 3.1% 3%
10:00AM May Michigan Consumer Expectations Final May 66.5 75 76
10:00AM May Sentiment: 1y Inflation (%) May 3.5% 3.2% 3.2%
10:00AM Fed Kashkari Speech
12:00PM WASDE Report (%)
12:45PM Fed Goolsbee Speech
1:00PM May/10 Baker Hughes Total Rig Count May/10 603 605
1:00PM May/10 Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count May/10 496 499
1:30PM Fed Barr Speech
2:00PM Apr Federal budget, $ (bl) Apr $210B $244.5B $-236B
Monday, May 13
9:00AM Fed Mester Speech
9:00AM Fed Jefferson Speech
11:00AM Apr Consumer Inflation Expectations Apr 3.3% 3%
11:30AM 26-Week Bill Auction (bl) 70
11:30AM 6-Month Bill Auction 5.165% 5.155%
11:30AM 3-Month Bill Auction 5.250% 5.250%
11:30AM 26-Week Bill Auction (bl) 70
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It was an action-packed week for the housing and mortgage market. Wednesday's Fed announcement was the highlight, but we also got several economic reports that caused rate volatility. Thankfully, it was mostly the good kind. The week got off to a slightly stronger start with Monday's only major rate news being updated borrowing estimates from the Treasury Department.  Why would such a thin... READ MORE