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Decent 2yr Auction, But No Major Inspiration For Bonds
Decent 2yr Auction, But No Major Inspiration For Bonds
We've increasingly revisited the concept of the "inside day" recently and with 2 days down, we could actually shift gears and to an "inside week." In other words, both yesterday and today's trading ranges can be easily contained inside the trading range established last week. In fact, everything fits in last Tuesday's range, and we'd have to go back yet another week (to CPI/Fed week) to see any actual volatility. That's not a bad thing. It's just a thing. It will change eventually, but it didn't change today. The biggest market mover was Canadian CPI of all things--something we basically never watch or mention, but those are the lengths one must go to on inside weeks. Tomorrow's 5yr Treasury auction could be a bigger player than today's 2yr although the latter did help bonds hold the line without losing more ground.
Decent 2yr Auction, But No Major Inspiration For Bonds
| Time | Event | Period | Actual | Forecast | Prior |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tuesday, Jun 25 | |||||
| 7:00AM | Fed Bowman Speech | ||||
| 8:30AM | May National Activity Index | May | 0.18 | -0.23 | |
| 8:55AM | Jun/22 Redbook yy (%) | Jun/22 | 5.3% | 5.9% | |
| 9:00AM | Apr House Price Index | Apr | 424.3 | 423.4 | |
| 9:00AM | Apr CaseShiller 20 mm nsa (%) | Apr | 1.4% | 1.6% | |
| 9:00AM | Apr Case Shiller Home Prices-20 y/y (% ) | Apr | 7.2% | 6.9% | 7.5% |
| 9:00AM | Apr FHFA Home Price Index m/m (%) | Apr | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| 9:00AM | Apr FHFA Home Prices y/y (%) | Apr | 6.3% | 6.7% | |
| 10:00AM | Jun CB Consumer Confidence (%) | Jun | 100.4 | 100 | 102 |
| 10:00AM | Jun Rich Fed manuf shipments | Jun | -9 | 13 | |
| 10:00AM | Jun Rich Fed comp. index | Jun | -10 | 2 | 0 |
| 10:00AM | Jun Rich Fed, services index | Jun | -11 | 3 | |
| 10:30AM | Jun Dallas Fed Services Revenues Index | Jun | 1.9 | 6.7 | |
| 10:30AM | Jun Dallas Fed Services Index | Jun | -4.1 | -12.1 | |
| 11:30AM | 52-Week Bill Auction (bl) | 60 | |||
| 11:30AM | 42-Day Bill Auction (%) | 5.250% | 5.270% | ||
| 12:00PM | Fed Cook Speech | ||||
| 1:00PM | 2-Year Note Auction | 4.706% | 4.917% | ||
| 1:00PM | May Money Supply | May | $20.96T | $20.87T | |
| 1:00PM | 2-Yr Note Auction (bl) | 69 | |||
| 2:10PM | Fed Bowman Speech | ||||
| 4:30PM | Jun/21 API weekly crude stocks (ml) | Jun/21 | 0.914M | -3M | 2.264M |
| Wednesday, Jun 26 | |||||
| 7:00AM | Jun/21 Mortgage Market Index | Jun/21 | 212.0 | 210.4 | |
| 7:00AM | Jun/21 MBA Purchase Index | Jun/21 | 147.8 | 146.0 | |
| 7:00AM | Jun/21 MBA Refi Index | Jun/21 | 552.4 | 552.7 | |
| 7:00AM | Jun/21 MBA 30-yr mortgage rate (%) | Jun/21 | 6.93% | 6.94% | |
| 7:00AM | Jun/21 MBA Mortgage Applications | Jun/21 | 0.8% | 0.9% | |
| 8:00AM | May Build permits: change mm (%) | May | -2.8% | -3.8% | -3% |
| 8:00AM | May Building permits: number (ml) | May | 1.399M | 1.386M | 1.440M |
| 10:00AM | May New Home Sales (ml) | May | 0.619M | 0.64M | 0.634M |
| 10:00AM | May New Home Sales (%) (%) | May | -11.3% | -4.7% | |
| 10:30AM | Jun/21 EIA Refinery Crude Runs Change | Jun/21 | -0.233M | -0.282M | |
| 10:30AM | Jun/21 EIA Heating Oil Stocks Change | Jun/21 | 0.406M | 0.526M | |
| 10:30AM | Jun/21 EIA Distillate Fuel Production Change | Jun/21 | 0.142M | -0.272M | |
| 10:30AM | Jun/21 Crude Oil Inventory (ml) | Jun/21 | 3.591M | -3M | -2.547M |
| 10:30AM | Jun/21 EIA Distillate Stocks Change | Jun/21 | -0.377M | -1.5M | -1.726M |
| 10:30AM | Jun/21 EIA Gasoline Production Change | Jun/21 | -0.289M | 0.084M | |
| 10:30AM | Jun/21 EIA Gasoline Stocks Change | Jun/21 | 2.654M | -1.1M | -2.28M |
| 10:30AM | Jun/21 EIA Cushing Crude Oil Stocks Change | Jun/21 | -0.226M | 0.307M | |
| 10:30AM | Jun/21 EIA Crude Oil Imports Change | Jun/21 | 0.065M | -2.48M | |
| 11:30AM | 2-Yr Note Auction (bl) | 28 | |||
| 11:30AM | 17-Week Bill Auction (%) | 5.220% | 5.220% | ||
| 11:30AM | 2-Year FRN Auction (%) | 0.155% | 0.139% | ||
| 1:00PM | 5-Year Note Auction | 4.331% | 4.553% | ||
| 1:00PM | 5-Yr Note Auction (bl) | 70 | |||
| 4:30PM | Bank Stress Tests | ||||
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