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Overnight Overseas Pressure
Overnight Overseas Pressure
The absence of relevant domestic market movers has been a theme all week. While that has gone hand in hand with relatively uninspired bond market movement so far, today has been complicated by overseas developments. Initial pressure came from sharply higher inflation numbers in Australia. After that, runaway weakness in USD/Yen is fueling concerns over actual or potential intervention from Japan (i.e. selling Treasuries to buy Yen-denominated assets). Big pops in Yen have indeed coincided with mysterious spurts of Treasury selling so far this morning, with a bit of a delay.
Decent 2yr Auction, But No Major Inspiration For Bonds
| Time | Event | Period | Actual | Forecast | Prior |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wednesday, Jun 26 | |||||
| 7:00AM | Jun/21 Mortgage Market Index | Jun/21 | 212.0 | 210.4 | |
| 7:00AM | Jun/21 MBA Purchase Index | Jun/21 | 147.8 | 146.0 | |
| 7:00AM | Jun/21 MBA Refi Index | Jun/21 | 552.4 | 552.7 | |
| 7:00AM | Jun/21 MBA 30-yr mortgage rate (%) | Jun/21 | 6.93% | 6.94% | |
| 7:00AM | Jun/21 MBA Mortgage Applications | Jun/21 | 0.8% | 0.9% | |
| 8:00AM | May Build permits: change mm (%) | May | -2.8% | -3.8% | -3% |
| 8:00AM | May Building permits: number (ml) | May | 1.399M | 1.386M | 1.440M |
| 10:00AM | May New Home Sales (ml) | May | 0.619M | 0.64M | 0.634M |
| 10:00AM | May New Home Sales (%) (%) | May | -11.3% | -4.7% | |
| 10:30AM | Jun/21 EIA Refinery Crude Runs Change | Jun/21 | -0.233M | -0.282M | |
| 10:30AM | Jun/21 EIA Heating Oil Stocks Change | Jun/21 | 0.406M | 0.526M | |
| 10:30AM | Jun/21 EIA Distillate Fuel Production Change | Jun/21 | 0.142M | -0.272M | |
| 10:30AM | Jun/21 Crude Oil Inventory (ml) | Jun/21 | 3.591M | -3M | -2.547M |
| 10:30AM | Jun/21 EIA Distillate Stocks Change | Jun/21 | -0.377M | -1.5M | -1.726M |
| 10:30AM | Jun/21 EIA Gasoline Production Change | Jun/21 | -0.289M | 0.084M | |
| 10:30AM | Jun/21 EIA Gasoline Stocks Change | Jun/21 | 2.654M | -1.1M | -2.28M |
| 10:30AM | Jun/21 EIA Cushing Crude Oil Stocks Change | Jun/21 | -0.226M | 0.307M | |
| 10:30AM | Jun/21 EIA Crude Oil Imports Change | Jun/21 | 0.065M | -2.48M | |
| 11:30AM | 2-Yr Note Auction (bl) | 28 | |||
| 11:30AM | 17-Week Bill Auction (%) | 5.220% | 5.220% | ||
| 11:30AM | 2-Year FRN Auction (%) | 0.155% | 0.139% | ||
| 1:00PM | 5-Year Note Auction | 4.331% | 4.553% | ||
| 1:00PM | 5-Yr Note Auction (bl) | 70 | |||
| 4:30PM | Bank Stress Tests | ||||
| Thursday, Jun 27 | |||||
| 8:30AM | Q1 Real Consumer Spending QoQ Final | Q1 | 1.5% | 3.3% | |
| 8:30AM | May Durables ex-transport (%) | May | -0.1% | 0.2% | 0.4% |
| 8:30AM | May Durables ex-defense mm (%) | May | -0.2% | 0% | |
| 8:30AM | Jun/22 Jobless claims 4-wk avg (k) | Jun/22 | 236K | 232.75K | |
| 8:30AM | Jun/22 Jobless Claims (k) | Jun/22 | 233K | 236K | 238K |
| 8:30AM | May Core CapEx (%) | May | -0.6% | 0.1% | 0.3% |
| 8:30AM | Q1 Core PCE Prices QoQ Final | Q1 | 3.7% | 3.6% | 2% |
| 8:30AM | Jun/15 Continued Claims (ml) | Jun/15 | 1839K | 1820K | 1828K |
| 8:30AM | May Durable goods (%) | May | 0.1% | -0.1% | 0.7% |
| 8:30AM | Q1 Corporate profits (% ) | Q1 | -2.7% | -1.7% | 3.9% |
| 8:30AM | Q1 GDP (%) | Q1 | 1.4% | 1.4% | 3.4% |
| 8:30AM | May Retail Inventories Ex Autos MoM Adv | May | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 8:30AM | Q1 PCE Prices QoQ Final | Q1 | 3.4% | 3.3% | 1.8% |
| 8:30AM | Q1 GDP Final Sales (%) | Q1 | 1.8% | 1.7% | 3.9% |
| 8:30AM | May Wholesale inventories mm (%) | May | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| 8:30AM | May Goods Trade Balance Adv | May | $-100.62B | $-96B | $-99.41B |
| 8:30AM | Q1 GDP deflator (%) | Q1 | 3.1% | 3.1% | 1.7% |
| 10:00AM | May Pending Home Sales YoY | May | -6.6% | 2.5% | -7.4% |
| 10:00AM | May Pending Home Sales (%) | May | -2.1% | 2.5% | -7.7% |
| 10:30AM | Jun/21 Nat gas-EIA, change bcf | Jun/21 | 52Bcf | 53Bcf | 71Bcf |
| 10:30AM | NY Fed Treasury Purchases TIPS 7.5 to 30 yrs (%) | $30 million | |||
| 11:00AM | Jun KC Fed manufacturing | Jun | -11 | -1 | |
| 11:00AM | Jun Kansas Fed Composite Index | Jun | -8 | -2 | |
| 11:30AM | 8-Week Bill Auction | 5.260% | 5.260% | ||
| 11:30AM | 4-Week Bill Auction | 5.270% | 5.230% | ||
| 12:00PM | Jun/26 15-Year Mortgage Rate | Jun/26 | 6.16% | 6.13% | |
| 12:00PM | Jun/26 30-Year Mortgage Rate | Jun/26 | 6.86% | 6.87% | |
| 1:00PM | 7-Year Note Auction | 4.276% | 4.650% | ||
| 1:00PM | 7-Yr Note Auction (bl) | 44 | |||
| 4:30PM | Jun/26 Central Bank Balance Sheet | Jun/26 | $7.23T | $7.25T | |
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