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What to Make of Week's Weakest Levels After Solid PCE Data
What to Make of Week's Weakest Levels After Solid PCE Data
Things looked good for the bond market earlier this morning. While yields were still quite a bit higher than those seen earlier in the week, there was an immediate, positive response to the on-target PCE data. The gains didn't last long with sellers running the table mostly between 10am and 11am ET. While some of the move could be due to traders moving to the sidelines ahead of near-term potential political developments, month/quarter-end positioning likely had a much bigger impact. Bonds ended the week at their weakest levels, but this pull-back doesn't inform next week's trading in the slightest. That honor goes to the active slate of bigger ticket economic data.
What to Make of Week's Weakest Levels After Solid PCE Data
| Time | Event | Period | Actual | Forecast | Prior |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Friday, Jun 28 | |||||
| 6:00AM | Fed Barkin Speech | ||||
| 8:30AM | May Core PCE Inflation (y/y) (%) | May | 2.6% | 2.6% | 2.8% |
| 8:30AM | May Personal Income (%) | May | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.3% |
| 8:30AM | May PCE (y/y) (%) | May | 2.6% | 2.6% | 2.7% |
| 8:30AM | May PCE price index mm (%) | May | 0% | 0% | 0.3% |
| 8:30AM | May Inflation-Adjusted Spending (Consumption) (%) | May | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.2% |
| 8:30AM | May Core PCE (m/m) (%) | May | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.2% |
| 8:40AM | Fed Daly Speech | ||||
| 9:45AM | Jun Chicago PMI | Jun | 47.4 | 40 | 35.4 |
| 10:00AM | Jun Consumer Sentiment (ip) | Jun | 68.2 | 65.8 | 69.1 |
| 10:00AM | Jun Sentiment: 5y Inflation (%) | Jun | 3% | 3.1% | 3% |
| 10:00AM | Jun Sentiment: 1y Inflation (%) | Jun | 3% | 3.3% | 3.3% |
| 10:00AM | Jun Michigan Consumer Expectations Final | Jun | 69.6 | 67.6 | 68.8 |
| 10:00AM | Jun U Mich conditions | Jun | 65.9 | 62.5 | 69.6 |
| 12:00PM | Fed Bowman Speech | ||||
| 12:30PM | Jun Quarterly Grain Stocks - Corn | Jun | 4.993B | 8.347B | |
| 12:30PM | Jun Quarterly Grain Stocks - Soy | Jun | 0.969B | 1.845B | |
| 12:30PM | Jun Quarterly Grain Stocks - Wheat | Jun | 0.702B | 1.087B | |
| 12:40PM | Fed Daly Speech | ||||
| 1:00PM | Jun/28 Baker Hughes Total Rig Count | Jun/28 | 581 | 588 | |
| 1:00PM | Jun/28 Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count | Jun/28 | 479 | 485 | |
| Monday, Jul 01 | |||||
| 9:45AM | Jun S&P Global Manuf. PMI | Jun | 51.7 | 51.3 | |
| 10:00AM | Jun ISM Manufacturing New Orders | Jun | 45.4 | ||
| 10:00AM | May Construction spending (%) | May | 0.1% | -0.1% | |
| 10:00AM | Jun ISM Manufacturing PMI | Jun | 49 | 48.7 | |
| 10:00AM | Jun ISM Manufacturing Employment | Jun | 51.1 | ||
| 10:00AM | Jun ISM Mfg Prices Paid | Jun | 55.9 | 57.0 | |
| 11:30AM | 52-Week Bill Auction (bl) | 73 | |||
| 11:30AM | 6-Month Bill Auction | 5.140% | |||
| 11:30AM | 3-Month Bill Auction | 5.235% | |||
| 11:30AM | 26-Week Bill Auction (bl) | 70 | |||
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