Ultimately a Very Drama-Free Day; Back to Watching Data

Ultimately a Very Drama-Free Day; Back to Watching Data

Tuesday helped buck the recent trend of frustratingly counterintuitive selling sprees in the bond market.  The amount of blame assigned to politics or to the arcane practices dictating monthly positioning in bonds can be debated, but there's less urgency on that front with today bringing moderate improvement.  Fed Chair Powell's appearance at SINTRA was a non-event, but perhaps in a "no whammies" sort of way.  Bonds gradually improved during his time on stage but lost some ground after the JOLTS data (as it should be, considering the higher than expected reading).  Buyers held firm, however, and we hit the close with gains intact.  To some, that's proof positive that there's no glacial repricing of risk following the presidential debate.  To others, it's a suggestion that it didn't matter as much as it may have seemed.  Either way, we have big ticket data to look forward to in the next two business days.

Market Movement Recap
08:39 AM

Flat overnight and stronger in early trading.  MBS up 1 tick (0.03).  10yr down 2.6bps at 4.406

Latest Video Analysis

Bonds Getting Back to Basics

MBS & Treasury Markets
UMBS 6.0 100.43 +0.22 10YR 4.344% -0.088% 7/3/2024 11:20AM EST
ISM Services 48.8 vs 52.5 f'cast, 53.8 prev ISM employment  46.1 vs 47.1 ISM New Orders 47.3 vs 54.1 (big miss) ISM Prices 56.3 vs 56.7 f'cast, 58.1 prev ISM Biz Activity 49.6 vs 61.2 prev (big change) ISM Services tends to be the bigger of the two ISM reports in terms of market movement and today's is holding true to that trend.  This was weaker across the board, resulting in a logical bond ra...   READ MORE
Today's Mortgage Rates
30YR Fixed 7.08% -0.05% 15YR Fixed 6.45% -0.02% 7/3/2024
As is often the case with internet headlines these days, the headline overstates the reality on the ground--or at least over-dramatizes it.  Considering the last notable "ceiling" was seen less than a month ago and that the last short term ceiling, less than a week ago, the word "finally" probably doesn't apply.  And then there's the word "ceiling" itself.  In this case, it's used only because there isn't one convenient word to say "a day where mortgage rate...   READ MORE
Economic Calendar
Time Event Period Actual Forecast Prior
Wednesday, Jul 03
7:00AM Jun/28 Mortgage Market Index Jun/28 206.5 212.0
7:00AM Jun/28 MBA Purchase Index Jun/28 142.9 147.8
7:00AM Jun/28 MBA Refi Index Jun/28 544.1 552.4
7:00AM Jun/28 MBA Mortgage Applications Jun/28 -2.6% 0.8%
7:00AM Jun/28 MBA 30-yr mortgage rate (%) Jun/28 7.03% 6.93%
7:00AM Fed Williams Speech
7:30AM Jun Challenger layoffs (k) Jun 48.786K 63.816K
8:15AM Jun ADP jobs (k) Jun 150K 160K 152K
8:30AM May Trade Gap (bl) May $-75.1B $-76.2B $-74.6B
8:30AM May Exports May $261.7B $263.7B
8:30AM May Imports May $336.7B $338.2B
8:30AM Jun/29 Jobless claims 4-wk avg (k) Jun/29 238.5K 236K
8:30AM Jun/29 Jobless Claims (k) Jun/29 238K 235K 233K
8:30AM Jun/22 Continued Claims (ml) Jun/22 1858K 1840K 1839K
9:45AM Jun S&P Global Composite PMI Jun 54.8 54.6 54.5
9:45AM Jun S&P Global Services PMI Jun 55.3 55.1 54.8
10:00AM Jun Total Vehicle Sales (ml) Jun 15.8M 15.9M
10:00AM May Factory orders mm (%) May -0.5% 0.2% 0.7%
10:00AM May Factory ex-transp mm (% ) May -0.7% 0.3% 0.7%
10:00AM Jun ISM Services Prices Jun 56.3 56.7 58.1
10:00AM Jun ISM Services New Orders Jun 47.3 53.6 54.1
10:00AM Jun ISM Services Employment Jun 46.1 49.0 47.1
10:00AM Jun ISM Biz Activity Jun 49.6 61.2
10:00AM Jun ISM N-Mfg PMI Jun 48.8 52.5 53.8
10:00AM 8-Week Bill Auction 5.275% 5.260%
10:00AM 4-Week Bill Auction 5.280% 5.270%
10:30AM Jun/28 EIA Heating Oil Stocks Change Jun/28 -0.572M 0.406M
10:30AM Jun/28 EIA Gasoline Stocks Change Jun/28 -2.214M -1M 2.654M
10:30AM Jun/28 EIA Gasoline Production Change Jun/28 0.18M -0.289M
10:30AM Jun/28 EIA Distillate Stocks Change Jun/28 -1.535M -1.1M -0.377M
10:30AM Jun/28 EIA Cushing Crude Oil Stocks Change Jun/28 0.345M -0.226M
10:30AM Jun/28 EIA Distillate Fuel Production Change Jun/28 0.204M 0.142M
10:30AM Jun/28 Crude Oil Inventory (ml) Jun/28 -12.157M -0.90M 3.591M
10:30AM Jun/28 EIA Crude Oil Imports Change Jun/28 -0.555M 0.065M
10:30AM Jun/28 EIA Refinery Crude Runs Change Jun/28 0.26M -0.233M
11:30AM 17-Week Bill Auction (%) 5.205% 5.220%
12:00PM Jul/02 15-Year Mortgage Rate Jul/02 6.25% 6.16%
12:00PM Jun/28 Nat gas-EIA, change bcf Jun/28 32Bcf 29Bcf 52Bcf
12:00PM Jul/03 30-Year Mortgage Rate Jul/03 6.95% 6.86%
2:00PM Happy 4th!!
2:00PM FOMC Minutes
8:00PM Juneteenth
Thursday, Jul 04
12:00AM Happy 4th!!
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The week began with a distinct absence of interest rate volatility, but things changed in a big way by Friday--at least compared to the previous week which was exceptionally quiet.  In the bigger picture, however, it was just another week that felt volatility in the short term due to a surprising rate spike on Friday. Incidentally, the fact that this week's rate spike occurred... READ MORE