Ultimately a Very Drama-Free Day; Back to Watching Data
Ultimately a Very Drama-Free Day; Back to Watching Data
Tuesday helped buck the recent trend of frustratingly counterintuitive selling sprees in the bond market. The amount of blame assigned to politics or to the arcane practices dictating monthly positioning in bonds can be debated, but there's less urgency on that front with today bringing moderate improvement. Fed Chair Powell's appearance at SINTRA was a non-event, but perhaps in a "no whammies" sort of way. Bonds gradually improved during his time on stage but lost some ground after the JOLTS data (as it should be, considering the higher than expected reading). Buyers held firm, however, and we hit the close with gains intact. To some, that's proof positive that there's no glacial repricing of risk following the presidential debate. To others, it's a suggestion that it didn't matter as much as it may have seemed. Either way, we have big ticket data to look forward to in the next two business days.
Flat overnight and stronger in early trading. MBS up 1 tick (0.03). 10yr down 2.6bps at 4.406
Bonds Getting Back to Basics
Time | Event | Period | Actual | Forecast | Prior |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Wednesday, Jul 03 | |||||
7:00AM | Jun/28 Mortgage Market Index | Jun/28 | 206.5 | 212.0 | |
7:00AM | Jun/28 MBA Purchase Index | Jun/28 | 142.9 | 147.8 | |
7:00AM | Jun/28 MBA Refi Index | Jun/28 | 544.1 | 552.4 | |
7:00AM | Jun/28 MBA Mortgage Applications | Jun/28 | -2.6% | 0.8% | |
7:00AM | Jun/28 MBA 30-yr mortgage rate (%) | Jun/28 | 7.03% | 6.93% | |
7:00AM | Fed Williams Speech | ||||
7:30AM | Jun Challenger layoffs (k) | Jun | 48.786K | 63.816K | |
8:15AM | Jun ADP jobs (k) | Jun | 150K | 160K | 152K |
8:30AM | May Trade Gap (bl) | May | $-75.1B | $-76.2B | $-74.6B |
8:30AM | May Exports | May | $261.7B | $263.7B | |
8:30AM | May Imports | May | $336.7B | $338.2B | |
8:30AM | Jun/29 Jobless claims 4-wk avg (k) | Jun/29 | 238.5K | 236K | |
8:30AM | Jun/29 Jobless Claims (k) | Jun/29 | 238K | 235K | 233K |
8:30AM | Jun/22 Continued Claims (ml) | Jun/22 | 1858K | 1840K | 1839K |
9:45AM | Jun S&P Global Composite PMI | Jun | 54.8 | 54.6 | 54.5 |
9:45AM | Jun S&P Global Services PMI | Jun | 55.3 | 55.1 | 54.8 |
10:00AM | Jun Total Vehicle Sales (ml) | Jun | 15.8M | 15.9M | |
10:00AM | May Factory orders mm (%) | May | -0.5% | 0.2% | 0.7% |
10:00AM | May Factory ex-transp mm (% ) | May | -0.7% | 0.3% | 0.7% |
10:00AM | Jun ISM Services Prices | Jun | 56.3 | 56.7 | 58.1 |
10:00AM | Jun ISM Services New Orders | Jun | 47.3 | 53.6 | 54.1 |
10:00AM | Jun ISM Services Employment | Jun | 46.1 | 49.0 | 47.1 |
10:00AM | Jun ISM Biz Activity | Jun | 49.6 | 61.2 | |
10:00AM | Jun ISM N-Mfg PMI | Jun | 48.8 | 52.5 | 53.8 |
10:00AM | 8-Week Bill Auction | 5.275% | 5.260% | ||
10:00AM | 4-Week Bill Auction | 5.280% | 5.270% | ||
10:30AM | Jun/28 EIA Heating Oil Stocks Change | Jun/28 | -0.572M | 0.406M | |
10:30AM | Jun/28 EIA Gasoline Stocks Change | Jun/28 | -2.214M | -1M | 2.654M |
10:30AM | Jun/28 EIA Gasoline Production Change | Jun/28 | 0.18M | -0.289M | |
10:30AM | Jun/28 EIA Distillate Stocks Change | Jun/28 | -1.535M | -1.1M | -0.377M |
10:30AM | Jun/28 EIA Cushing Crude Oil Stocks Change | Jun/28 | 0.345M | -0.226M | |
10:30AM | Jun/28 EIA Distillate Fuel Production Change | Jun/28 | 0.204M | 0.142M | |
10:30AM | Jun/28 Crude Oil Inventory (ml) | Jun/28 | -12.157M | -0.90M | 3.591M |
10:30AM | Jun/28 EIA Crude Oil Imports Change | Jun/28 | -0.555M | 0.065M | |
10:30AM | Jun/28 EIA Refinery Crude Runs Change | Jun/28 | 0.26M | -0.233M | |
11:30AM | 17-Week Bill Auction (%) | 5.205% | 5.220% | ||
12:00PM | Jul/02 15-Year Mortgage Rate | Jul/02 | 6.25% | 6.16% | |
12:00PM | Jun/28 Nat gas-EIA, change bcf | Jun/28 | 32Bcf | 29Bcf | 52Bcf |
12:00PM | Jul/03 30-Year Mortgage Rate | Jul/03 | 6.95% | 6.86% | |
2:00PM | Happy 4th!! | ||||
2:00PM | FOMC Minutes | ||||
8:00PM | Juneteenth | ||||
Thursday, Jul 04 | |||||
12:00AM | Happy 4th!! |