Matthew M. Loan
Senior Loan Officer
Mortgage Company, LLC.
P: (704) 867-5309
M: (980) 867-5309
mbslive.net
1050 W. Main St.
Suite 104-A
Charlotte NC 28031
License:
NMLS: #987654321

Data Over Politics, For Now

Wednesday, July 3, 2024

Data Over Politics, For Now

Several days ago, we were debating whether the presidential debate or the month-end/new-month trading environment was the bigger market mover.  The political angle was more popular in the analytical community, but evidence is increasingly suggesting that popularity wasn't necessarily warranted.  Today offered some compelling evidence in the form of absolutely no reaction to a widely circulated newswire that seemed to suggest Biden having second thoughts about remaining in the running.  Contrast that to the immediate and obvious reaction to the ISM Services data, which made for the highest Treasury trading volume since PPI and jobless claims data on June 13th.  Data will remain in focus when markets return from the holiday break on Friday morning thanks to non-farm payrolls.

Latest Video Analysis

Data Over Politics For Now

MBS & Treasury Markets
UMBS 5.5 98.72 +0.25 10YR 4.360% -0.072% 7/3/2024 1:59PM EST
Weaker Data, Stronger Bonds, Early Close
The bond market will close at 2pm instead of 5pm today as a part of the Independence Day holiday (fully closed tomorrow).  With only a few hours left, it's off to as good of a start as we could ask for, at least in terms of the bond market.  The economy is another story.  ISM Services is today's biggest data headline and it was much weaker than expected and much weaker than last time.  Especially notable was the big drop in business activity from 61.2 to 4...   READ MORE
Update:
Additional Gains After ISM Data
Update:
Modestly Stronger After First Round of Data
Today's Mortgage Rates
30YR Fixed 7.08% -0.05% 15YR Fixed 6.45% -0.02% 7/3/2024
Mortgage Rates Move Lower After Weak Service Sector Report
"Data dependent" is one of the most common phrases heard from the Federal Reserve these days when it comes to rate-setting policy.  And while the Fed doesn't directly dictate mortgage rates , the bond market tends to trade the same data that the Fed cares about. Today's key report, the ISM Services index, isn't quite at the top of the Fed's list, but it's a longstanding market mover when it comes to bonds and, thus, rates. Today's installment was much weaker than expe...   READ MORE
Last Week This Week Next Week
Economic Calendar
Time Event Period Actual Forecast Prior
Wednesday, Jul 03
7:00AM Jun/28 MBA Purchase Index Jun/28 142.9 147.8
7:00AM Jun/28 MBA Refi Index Jun/28 544.1 552.4
7:00AM Fed Williams Speech
7:30AM Jun Challenger layoffs (k) Jun 48.786K 63.816K
8:15AM Jun ADP jobs (k) Jun 150K 160K 152K
8:30AM May Trade Gap (bl) May $-75.1B $-76.2B $-74.6B
8:30AM Jun/29 Jobless Claims (k) Jun/29 238K 235K 233K
8:30AM Jun/22 Continued Claims (ml) Jun/22 1858K 1840K 1839K
9:45AM Jun S&P Global Composite PMI Jun 54.8 54.6 54.5
9:45AM Jun S&P Global Services PMI Jun 55.3 55.1 54.8
10:00AM May Factory orders mm (%) May -0.5% 0.2% 0.7%
10:00AM Jun ISM Services Prices Jun 56.3 56.7 58.1
10:00AM Jun ISM Services Employment Jun 46.1 49.0 47.1
10:00AM Jun ISM Biz Activity Jun 49.6 61.2
10:00AM Jun ISM N-Mfg PMI Jun 48.8 52.5 53.8
10:30AM Jun/28 Crude Oil Inventory (ml) Jun/28 -12.157M -0.90M 3.591M
11:30AM 17-Week Bill Auction (%) 5.205% 5.220%
2:00PM Happy 4th!!
2:00PM FOMC Minutes
Thursday, Jul 04
12:00AM Happy 4th!!
Recent Housing News
Read My Latest Newsletter
Slow Start for Rates Gives Way to Volatility With More to Come Next Week
6/28/2024 5:54PM
The week began with a distinct absence of interest rate volatility, but things changed in a big way by Friday--at least compared to the previous week which was exceptionally quiet.  In the bigger picture, however, it was just another week that felt volatility in the short term due to a surprising rate spike on Friday. Incidentally, the fact that this week's rate spike occurred... READ MORE
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Matthew M. Loan
Senior Loan Officer
Mortgage Company, LLC.
P: (704) 867-5309
M: (980) 867-5309
mbslive.net
1050 W. Main St.
Suite 104-A
Charlotte NC 28031
License:
NMLS: #987654321
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Reproduction or redistribution this newsletter, outside of the distribution services provided, is prohibited. Interest rate data provided in this newsletter are national averages. Rate/APR terms may differ. All information provided "as is" for informational purposes only.