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Data Over Politics, For Now
Data Over Politics, For Now
Several days ago, we were debating whether the presidential debate or the month-end/new-month trading environment was the bigger market mover. The political angle was more popular in the analytical community, but evidence is increasingly suggesting that popularity wasn't necessarily warranted. Today offered some compelling evidence in the form of absolutely no reaction to a widely circulated newswire that seemed to suggest Biden having second thoughts about remaining in the running. Contrast that to the immediate and obvious reaction to the ISM Services data, which made for the highest Treasury trading volume since PPI and jobless claims data on June 13th. Data will remain in focus when markets return from the holiday break on Friday morning thanks to non-farm payrolls.
Flat overnight and stronger in early trading. MBS up 1 tick (0.03). 10yr down 2.6bps at 4.406
Drifting sideways after strong reaction to weak ISM data. MBS up about a quarter points and 10yr down 8bps at 4.352
Data Over Politics For Now
| Time | Event | Period | Actual | Forecast | Prior |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wednesday, Jul 03 | |||||
| 7:00AM | Jun/28 Mortgage Market Index | Jun/28 | 206.5 | 212.0 | |
| 7:00AM | Jun/28 MBA Purchase Index | Jun/28 | 142.9 | 147.8 | |
| 7:00AM | Jun/28 MBA Refi Index | Jun/28 | 544.1 | 552.4 | |
| 7:00AM | Jun/28 MBA Mortgage Applications | Jun/28 | -2.6% | 0.8% | |
| 7:00AM | Jun/28 MBA 30-yr mortgage rate (%) | Jun/28 | 7.03% | 6.93% | |
| 7:00AM | Fed Williams Speech | ||||
| 7:30AM | Jun Challenger layoffs (k) | Jun | 48.786K | 63.816K | |
| 8:15AM | Jun ADP jobs (k) | Jun | 150K | 160K | 152K |
| 8:30AM | May Trade Gap (bl) | May | $-75.1B | $-76.2B | $-74.6B |
| 8:30AM | May Exports | May | $261.7B | $263.7B | |
| 8:30AM | May Imports | May | $336.7B | $338.2B | |
| 8:30AM | Jun/29 Jobless claims 4-wk avg (k) | Jun/29 | 238.5K | 236K | |
| 8:30AM | Jun/29 Jobless Claims (k) | Jun/29 | 238K | 235K | 233K |
| 8:30AM | Jun/22 Continued Claims (ml) | Jun/22 | 1858K | 1840K | 1839K |
| 9:45AM | Jun S&P Global Composite PMI | Jun | 54.8 | 54.6 | 54.5 |
| 9:45AM | Jun S&P Global Services PMI | Jun | 55.3 | 55.1 | 54.8 |
| 10:00AM | May Factory orders mm (%) | May | -0.5% | 0.2% | 0.7% |
| 10:00AM | May Factory ex-transp mm (% ) | May | -0.7% | 0.3% | 0.7% |
| 10:00AM | Jun ISM Services Prices | Jun | 56.3 | 56.7 | 58.1 |
| 10:00AM | Jun ISM Services New Orders | Jun | 47.3 | 53.6 | 54.1 |
| 10:00AM | Jun ISM Services Employment | Jun | 46.1 | 49.0 | 47.1 |
| 10:00AM | Jun ISM Biz Activity | Jun | 49.6 | 61.2 | |
| 10:00AM | Jun ISM N-Mfg PMI | Jun | 48.8 | 52.5 | 53.8 |
| 10:00AM | 8-Week Bill Auction | 5.275% | 5.260% | ||
| 10:00AM | 4-Week Bill Auction | 5.280% | 5.270% | ||
| 10:30AM | Jun/28 EIA Heating Oil Stocks Change | Jun/28 | -0.572M | 0.406M | |
| 10:30AM | Jun/28 EIA Gasoline Stocks Change | Jun/28 | -2.214M | -1M | 2.654M |
| 10:30AM | Jun/28 EIA Gasoline Production Change | Jun/28 | 0.18M | -0.289M | |
| 10:30AM | Jun/28 EIA Distillate Stocks Change | Jun/28 | -1.535M | -1.1M | -0.377M |
| 10:30AM | Jun/28 EIA Cushing Crude Oil Stocks Change | Jun/28 | 0.345M | -0.226M | |
| 10:30AM | Jun/28 EIA Distillate Fuel Production Change | Jun/28 | 0.204M | 0.142M | |
| 10:30AM | Jun/28 Crude Oil Inventory (ml) | Jun/28 | -12.157M | -0.90M | 3.591M |
| 10:30AM | Jun/28 EIA Crude Oil Imports Change | Jun/28 | -0.555M | 0.065M | |
| 10:30AM | Jun/28 EIA Refinery Crude Runs Change | Jun/28 | 0.26M | -0.233M | |
| 11:30AM | 17-Week Bill Auction (%) | 5.205% | 5.220% | ||
| 12:00PM | Jul/02 15-Year Mortgage Rate | Jul/02 | 6.25% | 6.16% | |
| 12:00PM | Jun/28 Nat gas-EIA, change bcf | Jun/28 | 32Bcf | 29Bcf | 52Bcf |
| 12:00PM | Jul/03 30-Year Mortgage Rate | Jul/03 | 6.95% | 6.86% | |
| 2:00PM | Happy 4th!! | ||||
| 2:00PM | FOMC Minutes | ||||
| 8:00PM | Juneteenth | ||||
| Thursday, Jul 04 | |||||
| 12:00AM | Happy 4th!! | ||||
| 10:00AM | Jun Total Vehicle Sales (ml) | Jun | 15.8M | 15.9M | |
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