Data Over Politics, For Now
Data Over Politics, For Now
Several days ago, we were debating whether the presidential debate or the month-end/new-month trading environment was the bigger market mover. The political angle was more popular in the analytical community, but evidence is increasingly suggesting that popularity wasn't necessarily warranted. Today offered some compelling evidence in the form of absolutely no reaction to a widely circulated newswire that seemed to suggest Biden having second thoughts about remaining in the running. Contrast that to the immediate and obvious reaction to the ISM Services data, which made for the highest Treasury trading volume since PPI and jobless claims data on June 13th. Data will remain in focus when markets return from the holiday break on Friday morning thanks to non-farm payrolls.
Data Over Politics For Now
| Time | Event | Period | Actual | Forecast | Prior |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thursday, Jul 04 | |||||
| 12:00AM | Happy 4th!! | ||||
| 10:00AM | Jun Total Vehicle Sales (ml) | Jun | 15.8M | 15.9M | |
| Friday, Jul 05 | |||||
| 5:40AM | Fed Williams Speech | ||||
| 8:30AM | Jun Manufacturing payrolls (k) | Jun | 6K | 8K | |
| 8:30AM | Jun Average earnings mm (%) | Jun | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 8:30AM | Average Hourly Earnings YoY | 3.9% | 4.1% | ||
| 8:30AM | Jun Average workweek hrs (hr) | Jun | 34.3 | 34.3 | |
| 8:30AM | Jun Participation Rate | Jun | 62.5% | ||
| 8:30AM | Jun Private Payrolls (k) | Jun | 160K | 229K | |
| 8:30AM | Jun Unemployment rate mm (%) | Jun | 4% | 4% | |
| 8:30AM | Jun Government Payrolls | Jun | 43K | ||
| 8:30AM | U-6 Unemployment Rate | 7.4% | |||
| 8:30AM | Jun Non Farm Payrolls | Jun | 190K | 272K | |
| 1:00PM | Jul/05 Baker Hughes Total Rig Count | Jul/05 | 581 | ||
| 1:00PM | Jul/05 Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count | Jul/05 | 479 | ||
| 4:30PM | Jul/3 Central Bank Balance Sheet | Jul/3 | $7.23T | ||
