|
Bonds Shake Off Retail Sales Impact to End Stronger
Bonds Shake Off Retail Sales Impact to End Stronger
This morning's Retail Sales data may have been right in line with forecasts at the headline level, but components of the report were much stronger than expected. As such, the initial sell-off made logical sense, or at least it was able to be explained in hindsight. The rest of the trading day was consistent with 0.0% retail sales growth as bonds slowly regained all of the ground lost in the morning, ultimately hitting the day's best levels just before the 3pm close. MBS underperformed 10yr Treasuries but fared roughly the same as the short end of the yield curve (more on that in today's video).
Bonds Shake Off Retail Sales Impact to End Stronger
| Time | Event | Period | Actual | Forecast | Prior |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wednesday, Jul 17 | |||||
| 12:00AM | Roll Date - UMBS 15YR, Ginnie Mae 15YR | ||||
| 7:00AM | Jul/12 MBA 30-yr mortgage rate (%) | Jul/12 | 6.87% | 7% | |
| 7:00AM | Jul/12 MBA Mortgage Applications | Jul/12 | 3.9% | -0.2% | |
| 7:00AM | Jul/12 Mortgage Market Index | Jul/12 | 214.1 | 206.1 | |
| 7:00AM | Jul/12 MBA Purchase Index | Jul/12 | 140.4 | 144.3 | |
| 7:00AM | Jul/12 MBA Refi Index | Jul/12 | 613.0 | 532.3 | |
| 8:30AM | Jun Housing starts number mm (ml) | Jun | 1.353M | 1.30M | 1.277M |
| 8:30AM | Jun Building permits: number (ml) | Jun | 1.446M | 1.40M | 1.399M |
| 8:30AM | Jun Build permits: change mm (%) | Jun | 3.4% | -2.8% | |
| 8:30AM | Jun House starts mm: change (%) | Jun | 3% | -5.5% | |
| 9:00AM | Fed Barkin Speech | ||||
| 9:15AM | Jun Capacity Utilization (%) | Jun | 78.8% | 78.4% | 78.2% |
| 9:15AM | Jun Industrial Production (%) | Jun | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.7% |
| 9:15AM | Jun Manufacturing Production YoY | Jun | 1.1% | -0.3% | |
| 9:15AM | Jun Industrial Production YoY | Jun | 1.6% | 0.1% | |
| 9:15AM | Jun Manufacturing Production MoM | Jun | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.6% |
| 9:35AM | Fed Waller Speech | ||||
| 10:30AM | Jul/12 EIA Heating Oil Stocks Change | Jul/12 | 0.252M | 0.356M | |
| 10:30AM | Jul/12 EIA Gasoline Stocks Change | Jul/12 | 3.328M | -1.7M | -2.006M |
| 10:30AM | Jul/12 EIA Gasoline Production Change | Jul/12 | -0.751M | 0.239M | |
| 10:30AM | Jul/12 EIA Distillate Stocks Change | Jul/12 | 3.454M | -0.5M | 4.884M |
| 10:30AM | Jul/12 Crude Oil Inventory (ml) | Jul/12 | -4.870M | 0.8M | -3.444M |
| 10:30AM | Jul/12 EIA Cushing Crude Oil Stocks Change | Jul/12 | -0.875M | -0.702M | |
| 10:30AM | Jul/12 EIA Distillate Fuel Production Change | Jul/12 | 0.101M | 0.022M | |
| 10:30AM | Jul/12 EIA Crude Oil Imports Change | Jul/12 | 0.312M | 0.615M | |
| 10:30AM | Jul/12 EIA Refinery Crude Runs Change | Jul/12 | -0.181M | 0.317M | |
| 11:30AM | 17-Week Bill Auction (%) | 5.195% | |||
| 1:00PM | 20-Yr Bond Auction (bl) | 13 | |||
| 1:00PM | 20-Year Bond Auction | 4.452% | |||
| 2:00PM | Fed Beige Book | ||||
| Thursday, Jul 18 | |||||
| 8:30AM | Jul/13 Jobless claims 4-wk avg (k) | Jul/13 | 233.5K | ||
| 8:30AM | Jul/13 Jobless Claims (k) | Jul/13 | 230K | 222K | |
| 8:30AM | Jul/06 Continued Claims (ml) | Jul/06 | 1860K | 1852K | |
| 8:30AM | Jul Philly Fed Business Conditions | Jul | 13.8 | ||
| 8:30AM | Jul Philly Fed New Orders | Jul | -2.2 | ||
| 8:30AM | Jul Philly Fed Prices Paid | Jul | 22.5 | ||
| 8:30AM | Jul Philly Fed CAPEX Index | Jul | 12.1 | ||
| 8:30AM | Jul Philly Fed Employment | Jul | -2.5 | ||
| 8:30AM | Jul Philly Fed Business Index | Jul | 2.9 | 1.3 | |
| 10:00AM | Jun CB Leading Index MoM (%) | Jun | -0.3% | -0.5% | |
| 10:30AM | Jul/12 Nat gas-EIA, change bcf | Jul/12 | 55Bcf | 65Bcf | |
| 11:30AM | 8-Week Bill Auction | 5.260% | |||
| 11:30AM | 4-Week Bill Auction | 5.270% | |||
| 12:00PM | Jul/17 15-Year Mortgage Rate | Jul/17 | 6.17% | ||
| 12:00PM | Jul/17 30-Year Mortgage Rate | Jul/17 | 6.89% | ||
| 1:00PM | 10-Year TIPS Auction | 2.184% | |||
| 1:00PM | 10-yr Note Auction (bl) | 19 | |||
| 1:45PM | Fed Logan Speech | ||||
| 1:45PM | Fed Logan Speech | ||||
| 4:00PM | May Net Long-Term Flows, excluding swaps (TIC data) (bl) | May | $98.4B | $123.1B | |
| 4:00PM | May Overall net capital flows (TIC Data) (bl) | May | $66.2B | ||
| 4:00PM | May Foreign Buying, Bonds (TIC Data) (bl) | May | $75B | ||
| 4:30PM | Jul/17 Central Bank Balance Sheet | Jul/17 | $7.22T | ||
| 6:05PM | Fed Daly Speech | ||||
| 7:30PM | Fed Bowman Speech | ||||
| 7:45PM | Fed Bowman Speech | ||||
|
|