Uneventful Start And an Uneventful Calendar
Uneventful Start And an Uneventful Calendar
Just because an economic calendar is full doesn't mean it's of any major importance to the bond market. Today fits the bill with the two economic headliners being Housing Starts and Industrial Production. Both have already come and gone without any reaction. The market has been more interested in trading a single comment from Fed's Waller, who said the time to cut rates is getting closer based on the most likely policy scenario. Yes, that's a bit cryptic, but he basically described 3 bowls of porridge and then said the warm one was the most likely. Bonds rallied for a moment and then went back to the prevailing trend from the overnight session.
Sideways to slightly weaker overnight with no major movement so far. MBS down 6 ticks (.19) and 10yr up 2.3bps at 4.182.
Gradually moving to best levels of the day with 10yr now unchanged and MBS nearly unchanged.
Bonds Shake Off Retail Sales Impact to End Stronger
Time | Event | Period | Actual | Forecast | Prior |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Wednesday, Jul 17 | |||||
12:00AM | Roll Date - UMBS 15YR, Ginnie Mae 15YR | ||||
7:00AM | Jul/12 MBA 30-yr mortgage rate (%) | Jul/12 | 6.87% | 7% | |
7:00AM | Jul/12 MBA Mortgage Applications | Jul/12 | 3.9% | -0.2% | |
7:00AM | Jul/12 Mortgage Market Index | Jul/12 | 214.1 | 206.1 | |
7:00AM | Jul/12 MBA Purchase Index | Jul/12 | 140.4 | 144.3 | |
7:00AM | Jul/12 MBA Refi Index | Jul/12 | 613.0 | 532.3 | |
8:30AM | Jun Housing starts number mm (ml) | Jun | 1.353M | 1.30M | 1.277M |
8:30AM | Jun Building permits: number (ml) | Jun | 1.446M | 1.40M | 1.399M |
8:30AM | Jun Build permits: change mm (%) | Jun | 3.4% | -2.8% | |
8:30AM | Jun House starts mm: change (%) | Jun | 3% | -5.5% | |
9:00AM | Fed Barkin Speech | ||||
9:15AM | Jun Capacity Utilization (%) | Jun | 78.8% | 78.4% | 78.2% |
9:15AM | Jun Industrial Production (%) | Jun | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.7% |
9:15AM | Jun Manufacturing Production YoY | Jun | 1.1% | -0.3% | |
9:15AM | Jun Industrial Production YoY | Jun | 1.6% | 0.1% | |
9:15AM | Jun Manufacturing Production MoM | Jun | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.6% |
9:35AM | Fed Waller Speech | ||||
10:30AM | Jul/12 EIA Heating Oil Stocks Change | Jul/12 | 0.252M | 0.356M | |
10:30AM | Jul/12 EIA Gasoline Stocks Change | Jul/12 | 3.328M | -1.7M | -2.006M |
10:30AM | Jul/12 EIA Gasoline Production Change | Jul/12 | -0.751M | 0.239M | |
10:30AM | Jul/12 EIA Distillate Stocks Change | Jul/12 | 3.454M | -0.5M | 4.884M |
10:30AM | Jul/12 Crude Oil Inventory (ml) | Jul/12 | -4.87M | 0.8M | -3.444M |
10:30AM | Jul/12 EIA Cushing Crude Oil Stocks Change | Jul/12 | -0.875M | -0.702M | |
10:30AM | Jul/12 EIA Distillate Fuel Production Change | Jul/12 | 0.101M | 0.022M | |
10:30AM | Jul/12 EIA Crude Oil Imports Change | Jul/12 | 0.312M | 0.615M | |
10:30AM | Jul/12 EIA Refinery Crude Runs Change | Jul/12 | -0.181M | 0.317M | |
11:30AM | 17-Week Bill Auction (%) | 5.135% | 5.195% | ||
1:00PM | 20-Yr Bond Auction (bl) | 13 | |||
1:00PM | 20-Year Bond Auction | 4.466% | 4.452% | ||
2:00PM | Fed Beige Book | ||||
Thursday, Jul 18 | |||||
8:30AM | Jul/13 Jobless claims 4-wk avg (k) | Jul/13 | 233.5K | ||
8:30AM | Jul/13 Jobless Claims (k) | Jul/13 | 230K | 222K | |
8:30AM | Jul/06 Continued Claims (ml) | Jul/06 | 1860K | 1852K | |
8:30AM | Jul Philly Fed Business Conditions | Jul | 13.8 | ||
8:30AM | Jul Philly Fed New Orders | Jul | -2.2 | ||
8:30AM | Jul Philly Fed Prices Paid | Jul | 22.5 | ||
8:30AM | Jul Philly Fed CAPEX Index | Jul | 12.1 | ||
8:30AM | Jul Philly Fed Employment | Jul | -2.5 | ||
8:30AM | Jul Philly Fed Business Index | Jul | 2.9 | 1.3 | |
10:00AM | Jun CB Leading Index MoM (%) | Jun | -0.3% | -0.5% | |
10:30AM | Jul/12 Nat gas-EIA, change bcf | Jul/12 | 55Bcf | 65Bcf | |
11:30AM | 8-Week Bill Auction | 5.260% | |||
11:30AM | 4-Week Bill Auction | 5.270% | |||
12:00PM | Jul/17 15-Year Mortgage Rate | Jul/17 | 6.17% | ||
12:00PM | Jul/17 30-Year Mortgage Rate | Jul/17 | 6.89% | ||
1:00PM | 10-Year TIPS Auction | 2.184% | |||
1:00PM | 10-yr Note Auction (bl) | 19 | |||
1:45PM | Fed Logan Speech | ||||
1:45PM | Fed Logan Speech | ||||
4:00PM | May Net Long-Term Flows, excluding swaps (TIC data) (bl) | May | $98.4B | $123.1B | |
4:00PM | May Overall net capital flows (TIC Data) (bl) | May | $66.2B | ||
4:00PM | May Foreign Buying, Bonds (TIC Data) (bl) | May | $75B | ||
4:30PM | Jul/17 Central Bank Balance Sheet | Jul/17 | $7.22T | ||
6:05PM | Fed Daly Speech | ||||
7:30PM | Fed Bowman Speech | ||||
7:45PM | Fed Bowman Speech |