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More Data Defiance. Maybe It's All About Claims?
More Data Defiance. Maybe It's All About Claims?
Bonds have been trending gently stronger after last week's CPI numbers, which is notable considering the headwinds presented by Tuesday's Retail Sales. Wednesday's data didn't suggest a recovery from overnight weakness, but we got one nonetheless--perhaps with some help from Fed speakers adding to the sense of a September rate cut. While the modestly bullish bias has been able to defy the data seen so far, the Fed's focus on the labor market may mean that Thursday's Jobless Claims number is a better headliner for the week than Retail Sales. After all, this is the installment that lines up with survey week for the forthcoming jobs report.
Sideways to slightly weaker overnight with no major movement so far. MBS down 6 ticks (.19) and 10yr up 2.3bps at 4.182.
Gradually moving to best levels of the day with 10yr now unchanged and MBS nearly unchanged.
Slightly deeper into today's lowest yields with 10yr down 1.2bps at 4.147. MBS up 1 tick (.03).
Little-Changed, But That's a Victory
| Time | Event | Period | Actual | Forecast | Prior |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wednesday, Jul 17 | |||||
| 12:00AM | Roll Date - UMBS 15YR, Ginnie Mae 15YR | ||||
| 7:00AM | Jul/12 MBA 30-yr mortgage rate (%) | Jul/12 | 6.87% | 7% | |
| 7:00AM | Jul/12 MBA Mortgage Applications | Jul/12 | 3.9% | -0.2% | |
| 7:00AM | Jul/12 Mortgage Market Index | Jul/12 | 214.1 | 206.1 | |
| 7:00AM | Jul/12 MBA Purchase Index | Jul/12 | 140.4 | 144.3 | |
| 7:00AM | Jul/12 MBA Refi Index | Jul/12 | 613.0 | 532.3 | |
| 8:30AM | Jun Housing starts number mm (ml) | Jun | 1.353M | 1.30M | 1.277M |
| 8:30AM | Jun Building permits: number (ml) | Jun | 1.446M | 1.40M | 1.399M |
| 8:30AM | Jun Build permits: change mm (%) | Jun | 3.4% | -2.8% | |
| 8:30AM | Jun House starts mm: change (%) | Jun | 3% | -5.5% | |
| 9:00AM | Fed Barkin Speech | ||||
| 9:15AM | Jun Capacity Utilization (%) | Jun | 78.8% | 78.4% | 78.2% |
| 9:15AM | Jun Industrial Production (%) | Jun | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.7% |
| 9:15AM | Jun Manufacturing Production YoY | Jun | 1.1% | -0.3% | |
| 9:15AM | Jun Industrial Production YoY | Jun | 1.6% | 0.1% | |
| 9:15AM | Jun Manufacturing Production MoM | Jun | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.6% |
| 9:35AM | Fed Waller Speech | ||||
| 10:30AM | Jul/12 EIA Heating Oil Stocks Change | Jul/12 | 0.252M | 0.356M | |
| 10:30AM | Jul/12 EIA Gasoline Stocks Change | Jul/12 | 3.328M | -1.7M | -2.006M |
| 10:30AM | Jul/12 EIA Gasoline Production Change | Jul/12 | -0.751M | 0.239M | |
| 10:30AM | Jul/12 EIA Distillate Stocks Change | Jul/12 | 3.454M | -0.5M | 4.884M |
| 10:30AM | Jul/12 Crude Oil Inventory (ml) | Jul/12 | -4.87M | 0.8M | -3.444M |
| 10:30AM | Jul/12 EIA Cushing Crude Oil Stocks Change | Jul/12 | -0.875M | -0.702M | |
| 10:30AM | Jul/12 EIA Distillate Fuel Production Change | Jul/12 | 0.101M | 0.022M | |
| 10:30AM | Jul/12 EIA Crude Oil Imports Change | Jul/12 | 0.312M | 0.615M | |
| 10:30AM | Jul/12 EIA Refinery Crude Runs Change | Jul/12 | -0.181M | 0.317M | |
| 11:30AM | 17-Week Bill Auction (%) | 5.135% | 5.195% | ||
| 1:00PM | 20-Yr Bond Auction (bl) | 13 | |||
| 1:00PM | 20-Year Bond Auction | 4.466% | 4.452% | ||
| 2:00PM | Fed Beige Book | ||||
| Thursday, Jul 18 | |||||
| 8:30AM | Jul/13 Jobless claims 4-wk avg (k) | Jul/13 | 233.5K | ||
| 8:30AM | Jul/13 Jobless Claims (k) | Jul/13 | 230K | 222K | |
| 8:30AM | Jul/06 Continued Claims (ml) | Jul/06 | 1860K | 1852K | |
| 8:30AM | Jul Philly Fed Business Conditions | Jul | 13.8 | ||
| 8:30AM | Jul Philly Fed New Orders | Jul | -2.2 | ||
| 8:30AM | Jul Philly Fed Prices Paid | Jul | 22.5 | ||
| 8:30AM | Jul Philly Fed CAPEX Index | Jul | 12.1 | ||
| 8:30AM | Jul Philly Fed Employment | Jul | -2.5 | ||
| 8:30AM | Jul Philly Fed Business Index | Jul | 2.9 | 1.3 | |
| 10:00AM | Jun CB Leading Index MoM (%) | Jun | -0.3% | -0.5% | |
| 10:30AM | Jul/12 Nat gas-EIA, change bcf | Jul/12 | 55Bcf | 65Bcf | |
| 11:30AM | 8-Week Bill Auction | 5.260% | |||
| 11:30AM | 4-Week Bill Auction | 5.270% | |||
| 12:00PM | Jul/17 15-Year Mortgage Rate | Jul/17 | 6.17% | ||
| 12:00PM | Jul/17 30-Year Mortgage Rate | Jul/17 | 6.89% | ||
| 1:00PM | 10-Year TIPS Auction | 2.184% | |||
| 1:00PM | 10-yr Note Auction (bl) | 19 | |||
| 1:45PM | Fed Logan Speech | ||||
| 1:45PM | Fed Logan Speech | ||||
| 4:00PM | May Net Long-Term Flows, excluding swaps (TIC data) (bl) | May | $98.4B | $123.1B | |
| 4:00PM | May Overall net capital flows (TIC Data) (bl) | May | $66.2B | ||
| 4:00PM | May Foreign Buying, Bonds (TIC Data) (bl) | May | $75B | ||
| 4:30PM | Jul/17 Central Bank Balance Sheet | Jul/17 | $7.22T | ||
| 6:05PM | Fed Daly Speech | ||||
| 7:30PM | Fed Bowman Speech | ||||
| 7:45PM | Fed Bowman Speech | ||||
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