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More Data Defiance. Maybe It's All About Claims?
More Data Defiance. Maybe It's All About Claims?
Bonds have been trending gently stronger after last week's CPI numbers, which is notable considering the headwinds presented by Tuesday's Retail Sales. Wednesday's data didn't suggest a recovery from overnight weakness, but we got one nonetheless--perhaps with some help from Fed speakers adding to the sense of a September rate cut. While the modestly bullish bias has been able to defy the data seen so far, the Fed's focus on the labor market may mean that Thursday's Jobless Claims number is a better headliner for the week than Retail Sales. After all, this is the installment that lines up with survey week for the forthcoming jobs report.
Little-Changed, But That's a Victory
| Time | Event | Period | Actual | Forecast | Prior |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wednesday, Jul 17 | |||||
| 12:00AM | Roll Date - UMBS 15YR, Ginnie Mae 15YR | ||||
| 7:00AM | Jul/12 MBA Purchase Index | Jul/12 | 140.4 | 144.3 | |
| 7:00AM | Jul/12 MBA Refi Index | Jul/12 | 613.0 | 532.3 | |
| 8:30AM | Jun Housing starts number mm (ml) | Jun | 1.353M | 1.30M | 1.277M |
| 8:30AM | Jun Building permits: number (ml) | Jun | 1.446M | 1.40M | 1.399M |
| 8:30AM | Jun Build permits: change mm (%) | Jun | 3.4% | -2.8% | |
| 8:30AM | Jun House starts mm: change (%) | Jun | 3% | -5.5% | |
| 9:00AM | Fed Barkin Speech | ||||
| 9:15AM | Jun Industrial Production (%) | Jun | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.7% |
| 9:35AM | Fed Waller Speech | ||||
| 10:30AM | Jul/12 Crude Oil Inventory (ml) | Jul/12 | -4.87M | 0.8M | -3.444M |
| 11:30AM | 17-Week Bill Auction (%) | 5.135% | 5.195% | ||
| 1:00PM | 20-Yr Bond Auction (bl) | 13 | |||
| 2:00PM | Fed Beige Book | ||||
| Thursday, Jul 18 | |||||
| 8:30AM | Jul/13 Jobless Claims (k) | Jul/13 | 243K | 230K | 222K |
| 8:30AM | Jul/06 Continued Claims (ml) | Jul/06 | 1867K | 1860K | 1852K |
| 8:30AM | Jul Philly Fed Prices Paid | Jul | 19.80 | 22.50 | |
| 8:30AM | Jul Philly Fed Business Index | Jul | 13.9 | 2.9 | 1.3 |
| 10:00AM | Jun CB Leading Index MoM (%) | Jun | -0.2% | -0.3% | -0.5% |
| 1:45PM | Fed Logan Speech | ||||
| 1:45PM | Fed Logan Speech | ||||
| 6:05PM | Fed Daly Speech | ||||
| 7:30PM | Fed Bowman Speech | ||||
| 7:45PM | Fed Bowman Speech | ||||
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