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Afternoon Weakness For Longer-Term Bonds. Are MBS in That Category?
Afternoon Weakness For Longer-Term Bonds. Are MBS in That Category?
It's easy to throw around general categories when discussing the bond market such as "longer" and "shorter" term (also seen as longer and shorter ends of the yield curve). But where is the cut off? In general, the current crop of MBS being produced to cover new mortgage originations is actually somewhere in the middle of the pack (i.e. the belly of the curve). That's because the average newly-originated mortgage is not expected to last nearly as long as the 10yr Treasury note that often serves as a basis for comparison. Who cares? Not us, usually. It only matters on days where long and short term rates are doing noticeably different things. In today's case, that provided some small benefit to MBS when compared to the 10yr.
modestly stronger overnight and sideways so far. MBS up 3 ticks (.09) and 10yr down 2.4bps at 4.228.
still sideways ahead of 2yr Treasury auction. 10yr down 2.4bps at 4.22. MBS up 3 ticks (.09).
Near weakest levels, but in a narrow range. MBS up 1 tick (.03) and 10yr down only 0.4bps at 4.249
PM Losses For Longer Term Bonds
| Time | Event | Period | Actual | Forecast | Prior |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tuesday, Jul 23 | |||||
| 8:55AM | Jul/20 Redbook yy (%) | Jul/20 | 4.9% | 4.8% | |
| 10:00AM | Jul Rich Fed comp. index | Jul | -17 | -7 | -10 |
| 10:00AM | Jul Rich Fed, services index | Jul | 5 | -11 | |
| 10:00AM | Jul Rich Fed manuf shipments | Jul | -21 | -9 | |
| 10:00AM | Jun Existing home sales (ml) | Jun | 3.89M | 4M | 4.11M |
| 10:00AM | Jun Exist. home sales % chg (%) | Jun | -5.4% | -0.7% | |
| 11:30AM | 52-Week Bill Auction (bl) | 70 | |||
| 11:30AM | 42-Day Bill Auction (%) | 5.270% | 5.270% | ||
| 1:00PM | 2-Year Note Auction | 4.434% | 4.706% | ||
| 1:00PM | Jun Money Supply | Jun | $21.03T | $20.96T | |
| 1:00PM | 2-Yr Note Auction (bl) | 69 | |||
| 4:30PM | Jul/19 API weekly crude stocks (ml) | Jul/19 | -3.9M | -2.47M | -4.44M |
| Wednesday, Jul 24 | |||||
| 7:00AM | Jul/19 MBA 30-yr mortgage rate (%) | Jul/19 | 6.87% | ||
| 7:00AM | Jul/19 MBA Mortgage Applications | Jul/19 | 3.9% | ||
| 7:00AM | Jul/19 Mortgage Market Index | Jul/19 | 214.1 | ||
| 7:00AM | Jul/19 MBA Purchase Index | Jul/19 | 140.4 | ||
| 7:00AM | Jul/19 MBA Refi Index | Jul/19 | 613.0 | ||
| 8:00AM | Jun Build permits: change mm (%) | Jun | 3.4% | -2.8% | |
| 8:00AM | Jun Building permits: number (ml) | Jun | 1.446M | 1.399M | |
| 8:30AM | Jun Goods Trade Balance Adv | Jun | $-98.0B | $-100.62B | |
| 8:30AM | Jun Wholesale inventories mm (%) | Jun | 0.5% | 0.6% | |
| 8:30AM | Jun Retail Inventories Ex Autos MoM Adv | Jun | 0% | ||
| 9:45AM | Jul S&P Global Manuf. PMI | Jul | 51.7 | 51.6 | |
| 9:45AM | Jul S&P Global Composite PMI | Jul | 54.8 | ||
| 9:45AM | Jul S&P Global Services PMI | Jul | 54.4 | 55.3 | |
| 10:00AM | Jun New Home Sales (%) (%) | Jun | -11.3% | ||
| 10:00AM | Jun New Home Sales (ml) | Jun | 0.64M | 0.619M | |
| 10:30AM | Jul/19 EIA Gasoline Stocks Change | Jul/19 | 3.328M | ||
| 10:30AM | Jul/19 EIA Heating Oil Stocks Change | Jul/19 | 0.252M | ||
| 10:30AM | Jul/19 EIA Gasoline Production Change | Jul/19 | -0.751M | ||
| 10:30AM | Jul/19 EIA Distillate Fuel Production Change | Jul/19 | 0.101M | ||
| 10:30AM | Jul/19 EIA Cushing Crude Oil Stocks Change | Jul/19 | -0.875M | ||
| 10:30AM | Jul/19 EIA Refinery Crude Runs Change | Jul/19 | -0.181M | ||
| 10:30AM | Jul/19 EIA Crude Oil Imports Change | Jul/19 | 0.312M | ||
| 10:30AM | Jul/19 EIA Distillate Stocks Change | Jul/19 | 3.454M | ||
| 10:30AM | Jul/19 Crude Oil Inventory (ml) | Jul/19 | 0.7M | -4.87M | |
| 11:30AM | 17-Week Bill Auction (%) | 5.135% | |||
| 11:30AM | 2-Year FRN Auction (%) | 0.155% | |||
| 11:30AM | 2-Yr Note Auction (bl) | 30 | |||
| 1:00PM | 5-Year Note Auction | 4.331% | |||
| 1:00PM | 5-Yr Note Auction (bl) | 70 | |||
| 4:05PM | Fed Bowman Speech | ||||
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