Surprisingly Strong Reaction to Equivocal Powell
Surprisingly Strong Reaction to Equivocal Powell
Opinions certainly vary as to whether today's communications from the Fed and Fed Chair Powell were dovish or hawkish, so let's focus on facts. The changes in the statement itself were bond-friendly but not enough for bonds to rally. In fact, there was modest selling until Powell began answering questions. Powell himself said a September rate cut was one possible scenario assuming the data remains consistent with recent progress toward goals. He was very clear, however, to say that no decisions have been made. A strong case can be made that today's rally isn't exclusively on Powell. Geopolitical headlines and month-end trading definitely had an impact. Still, history will remember that Powell did everything he could do to leave the door open for a September cut, short of promising that it would happen.
Surprisingly Strong Reaction to Equivocal Powell
Time | Event | Period | Actual | Forecast | Prior |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Thursday, Aug 01 | |||||
7:30AM | Jul Challenger layoffs (k) | Jul | 48.786K | ||
8:30AM | Jul/27 Jobless claims 4-wk avg (k) | Jul/27 | 235.5K | ||
8:30AM | Jul/20 Continued Claims (ml) | Jul/20 | 1860K | 1851K | |
8:30AM | Jul/27 Jobless Claims (k) | Jul/27 | 236K | 235K | |
8:30AM | Q2 Unit Labour Costs QoQ Final | Q2 | 1.8% | 4% | |
8:30AM | Q2 Nonfarm Productivity QoQ Final | Q2 | 1.7% | 0.2% | |
9:45AM | Jul S&P Global Manuf. PMI | Jul | 49.5 | 51.6 | |
10:00AM | Jul ISM Manufacturing Employment | Jul | 49 | 49.3 | |
10:00AM | Jul ISM Manufacturing New Orders | Jul | 49.3 | ||
10:00AM | Jul ISM Mfg Prices Paid | Jul | 51.8 | 52.1 | |
10:00AM | Jun Construction spending (%) | Jun | 0.2% | -0.1% | |
10:00AM | Jul ISM Manufacturing PMI | Jul | 48.8 | 48.5 | |
10:30AM | Jul/26 Nat gas-EIA, change bcf | Jul/26 | 31Bcf | 22Bcf | |
11:30AM | 4-Week Bill Auction | 5.285% | |||
11:30AM | 8-Week Bill Auction | 5.260% | |||
12:00PM | Jul/31 30-Year Mortgage Rate | Jul/31 | 6.78% | ||
12:00PM | Jul/31 15-Year Mortgage Rate | Jul/31 | 6.07% | ||
4:30PM | Jul/31 Central Bank Balance Sheet | Jul/31 | $7.20T | ||
Friday, Aug 02 | |||||
8:30AM | Jul Average workweek hrs (hr) | Jul | 34.3 | 34.3 | |
8:30AM | Jul Average earnings mm (%) | Jul | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
8:30AM | Jul Manufacturing payrolls (k) | Jul | -1K | -8K | |
8:30AM | Average Hourly Earnings YoY | 3.7% | 3.9% | ||
8:30AM | Jul Non Farm Payrolls | Jul | 175K | 206K | |
8:30AM | Jul Private Payrolls (k) | Jul | 148K | 136K | |
8:30AM | Jul Participation Rate | Jul | 62.6% | ||
8:30AM | Jul Government Payrolls | Jul | 70K | ||
8:30AM | U-6 Unemployment Rate | 7.4% | |||
8:30AM | Jul Unemployment rate mm (%) | Jul | 4.1% | 4.1% | |
10:00AM | Jul Total Vehicle Sales (ml) | Jul | 15.3M | ||
10:00AM | Jun Factory orders mm (%) | Jun | -2.9% | -0.5% | |
10:00AM | Jun Factory ex-transp mm (% ) | Jun | -0.7% | ||
1:00PM | Aug/02 Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count | Aug/02 | 482 | ||
1:00PM | Aug/02 Baker Hughes Total Rig Count | Aug/02 | 589 |