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Wild Ride on Jobs Day as Fed Speakers Steal The Show
Wild Ride on Jobs Day as Fed Speakers Steal The Show
We came into jobs report day expecting some clarity on the size of the Fed's impending rate cut and in hindsight, it's abundantly clear that traders felt the same way. The only catch is that the lion's share of the clarity was reserved for a few short comments from Fed's Chris Waller. The market initially mistook those comments to suggest a 50bp cut, but swiftly reconsidered. In terms of Fed Funds Futures, the volume and volatility surrounding Waller's comments were FAR bigger than the action surrounding the jobs report earlier in the morning. Ultimately, it was a good enough day for rates with bonds holding modest gains.
Wild Ride on Jobs Day as Fed Speakers Steal The Show
| Time | Event | Period | Actual | Forecast | Prior |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Friday, Sep 06 | |||||
| 8:30AM | Average Hourly Earnings YoY | 3.8% | 3.7% | 3.6% | |
| 8:30AM | Aug Average earnings mm (%) | Aug | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.2% |
| 8:30AM | Aug Average workweek hrs (hr) | Aug | 34.3 | 34.3 | 34.2 |
| 8:30AM | Aug Manufacturing payrolls (k) | Aug | -24K | 0K | 1K |
| 8:30AM | Aug Participation Rate | Aug | 62.7% | 62.7% | |
| 8:30AM | Aug Government Payrolls | Aug | 24K | 17K | |
| 8:30AM | U-6 Unemployment Rate | 7.9% | 7.8% | ||
| 8:30AM | Aug Unemployment rate mm (%) | Aug | 4.2% | 4.2% | 4.3% |
| 8:30AM | Aug Private Payrolls (k) | Aug | 118K | 139K | 97K |
| 8:30AM | Aug Non Farm Payrolls | Aug | 142K | 160K | 114K |
| 8:45AM | Fed Williams Speech | ||||
| 11:00AM | Fed Waller Speech | ||||
| 1:00PM | Sep/06 Baker Hughes Total Rig Count | Sep/06 | 582 | 583 | |
| 1:00PM | Sep/06 Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count | Sep/06 | 483 | 483 | |
| Monday, Sep 09 | |||||
| 9:00AM | Aug Used Car Prices MoM | Aug | 2.8% | ||
| 9:00AM | Aug Used Car Prices YoY | Aug | -4.8% | ||
| 10:00AM | Aug Total Vehicle Sales (ml) | Aug | 15.4M | 15.8M | |
| 10:00AM | Jul Wholesale inventories mm (%) | Jul | 0.3% | 0.1% | |
| 10:30AM | NY Fed Treasury Purchases 2.25 to 4.5 yrs (%) | $80 million | |||
| 11:00AM | Aug Consumer Inflation Expectations | Aug | 3% | ||
| 11:30AM | 26-Week Bill Auction (bl) | 76 | |||
| 11:30AM | 6-Month Bill Auction | 4.645% | |||
| 11:30AM | 3-Month Bill Auction | 4.970% | |||
| 11:30AM | 26-Week Bill Auction (bl) | 70 | |||
| 3:00PM | Jul Consumer credit (bl) | Jul | $12.2B | $8.93B | |
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