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CPI Helps Flesh Out Rate Cut Odds, But Not Much Else
CPI Helps Flesh Out Rate Cut Odds, But Not Much Else
Heading into today's CPI data, there were valid doubts about the data's role as one of the two biggest market movers (the jobs report being the other). Those doubts proved to be well founded as far as MBS and Treasuries are concerned with all of the initial reaction being erased in the first two hours of trading. Specifically, bonds lost ground after the data, but gained it all back. The only place we see any lasting negative impact is in near-term Fed Funds Futures, where CPI has further tipped the scales in favor of a 25bp rate cut next week. So why aren't other bonds suffering? It all goes back to the thesis that the overall pace of rate cuts matters more than the size of the first one.
Will The Market Still Care About CPI?
| Time | Event | Period | Actual | Forecast | Prior |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wednesday, Sep 11 | |||||
| 7:00AM | Sep/06 MBA Mortgage Applications | Sep/06 | 1.4% | 1.6% | |
| 7:00AM | Sep/06 MBA 30-yr mortgage rate (%) | Sep/06 | 6.29% | 6.43% | |
| 7:00AM | Sep/06 MBA Purchase Index | Sep/06 | 138.6 | 136.1 | |
| 7:00AM | Sep/06 Mortgage Market Index | Sep/06 | 233.7 | 230.5 | |
| 7:00AM | Sep/06 MBA Refi Index | Sep/06 | 757.8 | 751.4 | |
| 8:30AM | Aug y/y Headline CPI (%) | Aug | 2.5% | 2.6% | 2.9% |
| 8:30AM | Aug CPI index, nsa | Aug | 314.80 | 314.98 | 314.54 |
| 8:30AM | Aug m/m Headline CPI (%) | Aug | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.2% |
| 8:30AM | Aug m/m CORE CPI (%) | Aug | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.2% |
| 8:30AM | Aug y/y CORE CPI (%) | Aug | 3.2% | 3.2% | 3.2% |
| 8:30AM | Aug Core CPI index, sa | Aug | 314.121 | 313.534 | |
| 10:30AM | Sep/06 EIA Crude Oil Imports Change | Sep/06 | 1.526M | -0.853M | |
| 10:30AM | Sep/06 EIA Cushing Crude Oil Stocks Change | Sep/06 | -1.704M | -1.142M | |
| 10:30AM | Sep/06 Crude Oil Inventory (ml) | Sep/06 | 0.833M | 1M | -6.873M |
| 10:30AM | Sep/06 EIA Distillate Stocks Change | Sep/06 | 2.308M | 0.3M | -0.371M |
| 10:30AM | Sep/06 EIA Distillate Fuel Production Change | Sep/06 | 0.04M | 0.167M | |
| 10:30AM | Sep/06 EIA Refinery Crude Runs Change | Sep/06 | -0.141M | 0.036M | |
| 10:30AM | Sep/06 EIA Gasoline Production Change | Sep/06 | -0.371M | 0.136M | |
| 10:30AM | Sep/06 EIA Heating Oil Stocks Change | Sep/06 | -0.695M | 0.939M | |
| 10:30AM | Sep/06 EIA Gasoline Stocks Change | Sep/06 | 2.311M | -0.1M | 0.848M |
| 11:30AM | 17-Week Bill Auction (%) | 4.740% | 4.810% | ||
| 1:00PM | 10-Year Note Auction | 3.648% | 3.96% | ||
| Thursday, Sep 12 | |||||
| 8:30AM | Aug Core Producer Prices MM (%) | Aug | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0% |
| 8:30AM | Aug PPI Ex Food, Energy and Trade YoY | Aug | 3.3% | 3.3% | |
| 8:30AM | Aug PPI | Aug | 144.854 | 144.673 | |
| 8:30AM | Aug PPI Ex Food, Energy and Trade MoM | Aug | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 8:30AM | Sep/07 Jobless claims 4-wk avg (k) | Sep/07 | 230.75K | 230K | |
| 8:30AM | Aug PPI YoY | Aug | 1.7% | 1.8% | 2.2% |
| 8:30AM | Aug Producer Prices (%) | Aug | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| 8:30AM | Sep/07 Jobless Claims (k) | Sep/07 | 230K | 230K | 227K |
| 8:30AM | Aug Core Producer Prices YY (%) | Aug | 2.4% | 2.5% | 2.4% |
| 8:30AM | Aug/31 Continued Claims (ml) | Aug/31 | 1850K | 1850K | 1838K |
| 10:30AM | Sep/06 Nat gas-EIA, change bcf | Sep/06 | 40Bcf | 49Bcf | 13Bcf |
| 11:30AM | 8-Week Bill Auction | 4.990% | 5.040% | ||
| 11:30AM | 4-Week Bill Auction | 4.965% | 5.080% | ||
| 11:30AM | Aug Federal budget, $ (bl) | Aug | $-380B | $-349.6B | $-244B |
| 12:00PM | Sep/11 15-Year Mortgage Rate | Sep/11 | 5.27% | 5.47% | |
| 12:00PM | Sep/11 30-Year Mortgage Rate | Sep/11 | 6.2% | 6.35% | |
| 12:00PM | WASDE Report (%) | ||||
| 1:00PM | 30-Year Bond Auction | 4.015% | 4.314% | ||
| 4:30PM | Sep/11 Central Bank Balance Sheet | Sep/11 | $7.11T | $7.11T | |
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