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More Resilient Today, But It's Still All About Data
More Resilient Today, But It's Still All About Data
The bond market is still searching for its identity in the wake of last week's Fed announcement. Monday and Tuesday saw relatively big volatility in the morning with calmer, stronger afternoons--something that fueled hopes that the post-Fed correction was over. Wednesday saw overnight losses with more weakness throughout the day, thus suggesting the post-Fed correction could still be alive. Thursday had a bit of everything: gains overnight, early losses and a decent afternoon recovery. The only constant has been the ability of relevant econ data to set the trading tone.
Stronger overnight, weaker after data and now back near unchanged.
Back to weakest levels now. 10yr up 2.5bps at 3.81 and MBS down an eighth.
modest friendly bounce just before and after the 7yr auction (not necessarily because of it). 10yr up 1.2bps at 3.797 and MBS unchanged.
No major changes since the last update. MBS down 1 tick (0.03) and 10yr up 1bp at 3.794
More Resilient Today, But It's Still All About Data
| Time | Event | Period | Actual | Forecast | Prior |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thursday, Sep 26 | |||||
| 8:30AM | Aug Durables ex-defense mm (%) | Aug | -0.2% | 10.4% | |
| 8:30AM | Aug Durable goods (%) | Aug | 0.0% | -2.6% | 9.9% |
| 8:30AM | Aug Durables ex-transport (%) | Aug | 0.5% | 0.1% | -0.2% |
| 8:30AM | Q2 Core PCE Prices QoQ Final | Q2 | 2.8% | 2.8% | 3.7% |
| 8:30AM | Q2 Corporate profits (% ) | Q2 | 3.5% | 1.7% | -2.7% |
| 8:30AM | Sep/14 Continued Claims (ml) | Sep/14 | 1834K | 1829K | |
| 8:30AM | Q2 GDP (%) | Q2 | 3% | 3% | 1.4% |
| 8:30AM | Q2 GDP deflator (%) | Q2 | 2.5% | 2.5% | 3.1% |
| 8:30AM | Q2 GDP Final Sales (%) | Q2 | 1.9% | 2.2% | 1.8% |
| 8:30AM | Q2 PCE Prices QoQ Final | Q2 | 2.5% | 2.5% | 3.4% |
| 8:30AM | Q2 Real Consumer Spending QoQ Final | Q2 | 2.8% | 2.9% | 1.5% |
| 8:30AM | Sep/21 Jobless claims 4-wk avg (k) | Sep/21 | 224.75K | 227.5K | |
| 8:30AM | Sep/21 Jobless Claims (k) | Sep/21 | 218K | 225K | 219K |
| 8:30AM | Aug Core CapEx (%) | Aug | 0.2% | 0% | -0.1% |
| 9:10AM | Fed Collins Speech | ||||
| 9:10AM | Fed Kugler Speech | ||||
| 9:20AM | Fed Chair Powell Speech | ||||
| 9:25AM | Fed Williams Speech | ||||
| 10:00AM | Aug Pending Home Sales YoY | Aug | -3% | -8.5% | |
| 10:00AM | Aug Pending Home Sales (%) | Aug | 0.6% | 0.3% | -5.5% |
| 10:30AM | Sep/20 Nat gas-EIA, change bcf | Sep/20 | 47Bcf | 52Bcf | 58Bcf |
| 10:30AM | Fed Barr Speech | ||||
| 11:00AM | Sep Kansas Fed Composite Index | Sep | -8 | -3 | |
| 11:00AM | Sep KC Fed manufacturing | Sep | -18 | 9 | 6 |
| 11:15AM | Treasury Secretary Yellen Speech | ||||
| 11:30AM | 8-Week Bill Auction | 4.650% | 4.690% | ||
| 11:30AM | 4-Week Bill Auction | 4.7% | 4.7% | ||
| 12:00PM | Sep/25 15-Year Mortgage Rate | Sep/25 | 5.16% | 5.15% | |
| 12:00PM | Sep/25 30-Year Mortgage Rate | Sep/25 | 6.08% | 6.09% | |
| 1:00PM | 7-Year Note Auction | 3.668% | 3.77% | ||
| 1:00PM | Fed Kahkari Speech | ||||
| 1:00PM | 7-Yr Note Auction (bl) | 44 | |||
| 4:30PM | Sep/25 Central Bank Balance Sheet | Sep/25 | $7.08T | $7.10T | |
| Friday, Sep 27 | |||||
| 8:30AM | Aug Core PCE Inflation (y/y) (%) | Aug | 2.7% | 2.6% | |
| 8:30AM | Aug Goods Trade Balance Adv | Aug | $-99.4B | $-102.66B | |
| 8:30AM | Aug Personal Income (%) | Aug | 0.4% | 0.3% | |
| 8:30AM | Aug PCE (y/y) (%) | Aug | 2.3% | 2.5% | |
| 8:30AM | Aug Inflation-Adjusted Spending (Consumption) (%) | Aug | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 8:30AM | Aug PCE price index mm (%) | Aug | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 8:30AM | Aug Core PCE (m/m) (%) | Aug | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 8:30AM | Aug Wholesale inventories mm (%) | Aug | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 8:30AM | Aug Retail Inventories Ex Autos MoM Adv | Aug | 0.5% | ||
| 10:00AM | Sep Sentiment: 5y Inflation (%) | Sep | 3.1% | 3% | |
| 10:00AM | Sep Michigan Consumer Expectations Final | Sep | 73.0 | 72.1 | |
| 10:00AM | Sep Sentiment: 1y Inflation (%) | Sep | 2.7% | 2.8% | |
| 10:00AM | Sep Consumer Sentiment (ip) | Sep | 69.3 | 67.9 | |
| 10:00AM | Sep U Mich conditions | Sep | 62.9 | 61.3 | |
| 1:00PM | Sep/27 Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count | Sep/27 | 488 | ||
| 1:00PM | Sep/27 Baker Hughes Total Rig Count | Sep/27 | 588 | ||
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