April Palacios
Branch Sales Manager
Fairway Independent Mortgage Corporation
License:
124941

More Resilient Today, But It's Still All About Data

More Resilient Today, But It's Still All About Data

The bond market is still searching for its identity in the wake of last week's Fed announcement.  Monday and Tuesday saw relatively big volatility in the morning with calmer, stronger afternoons--something that fueled hopes that the post-Fed correction was over.  Wednesday saw overnight losses with more weakness throughout the day, thus suggesting the post-Fed correction could still be alive. Thursday had a bit of everything: gains overnight, early losses and a decent afternoon recovery.  The only constant has been the ability of relevant econ data to set the trading tone.

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More Resilient Today, But It's Still All About Data

MBS & Treasury Markets
UMBS 5.5 101.37 +0.18 10YR 3.750% -0.047% 9/27/2024 5:00PM EST
At the risk of tempting fate by discussing a leveling-off of the post-Fed correction again, the overnight session saw the most compelling case yet for the correction having run its course.  The evidence didn't have as much to do with the outright level of gains in longer term yields as it did with the shape of yield curve trading over the past 2 days.  During that time, the curve hit a ceiling and held flat for the longest period of time post-Fed-meeting. ...   READ MORE
Today's Mortgage Rates
30YR Fixed 6.20% -0.01% 15YR Fixed 5.57% -0.01% 9/27/2024
Because we created the industry's first daily mortgage rate index based on actual lender rate sheets without any subjective distortions, and because the longest-standing mortgage rate index in the U.S. is a once-a-week survey with plenty subjective distortions and some quirky methodology, we often find ourselves pointing out what's "real" on many Thursday afternoons (the weekly survey comes out on Thursdays).  In virtually every case we can remember, there have been qu...   READ MORE
Economic Calendar
Time Event Period Actual Forecast Prior
Friday, Sep 27
8:30AM Aug Core PCE Inflation (y/y) (%) Aug 2.7% 2.7% 2.6%
8:30AM Aug Core PCE (m/m) (%) Aug 0.1% 0.2% 0.2%
8:30AM Aug Wholesale inventories mm (%) Aug 0.2% 0.2% 0.2%
10:00AM Sep Sentiment: 5y Inflation (%) Sep 3.1% 3.1% 3%
10:00AM Sep Sentiment: 1y Inflation (%) Sep 2.7% 2.7% 2.8%
10:00AM Sep Consumer Sentiment (ip) Sep 70.1 69.3 67.9
10:00AM Sep U Mich conditions Sep 63.3 62.9 61.3
Monday, Sep 30
8:50AM Fed Bowman Speech
9:45AM Sep Chicago PMI Sep 46.6 46.2 46.1
1:00PM Fed Chair Powell Speech
1:55PM Fed Chair Powell Speech
Read My Latest Newsletter
This week's newsletter will be intentionally short in hopes of it being easier to share, read, and digest. It will offer several strategies for understanding the paradoxical disconnect between the Fed Funds Rate and mortgage rates.  For those interested in a deeper dive, the past 3 newsletters thoroughly covered it in detail: Why Fed Day Matters Even Though Mortgage Rates Are Already Lowe... READ MORE
April Palacios
Branch Sales Manager
Fairway Independent Mortgage Corporation
License:
124941